22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Huntergreed]

Yes, but they are brand new and it would be foolish to place absolutely everything in them at this stage. Not everyone can have them and we don't yet know how long the protection lasts for. Will people vaccinated in December still be protected by August? That's why I said we'll know more next year.

Uhhh you do realise the whole idea is a booster season on vaccines in Autumn to prepare for the winter season?

 

[Philip]

If you think it is too risky, fine. You are perfectly free to sit at home away from everyone else, as a good little locktivist. Meanwhile, the rest of us have lives to lead.

Using the word 'locktivist' is typical hysterical nonsense. At no point have I suggested continuing lockdown, and that is completely different to feeling there should be more caution in opening certain things up.

 

[yorkie]

Yes, but they are brand new

But based on work that has been ongoing for quite some time; they are not new from scratch.

and it would be foolish to place absolutely everything in them at this stage.

What does this even mean?

Not everyone can have them

The vast majority of people will.

and we don't yet know how long the protection lasts for.

There is no evidence to suggest the protection will be anything other than long lasting.

People who had the original Sars Coronavirus infection still have good immunity 17 years later!

Seasonal Coronaviruses are endemic but we reached equilibrium with them because our immune systems are able to recognise them. If immunity faded rapidly we'd have Coronavirus epidemics every year (or yearly boosters).

Coronaviruses mutate much more slowly than 'flu.

Will people vaccinated in December still be protected by August? That's why I said we'll know more next year.

Yes of course they will.

Uhhh you do realise the whole idea is a booster season on vaccines in Autumn to prepare for the winter season?

I actually don't think we'll need an additional booster (other than the second dose) this year but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a revised version of the vaccine being given as the 2nd dose in younger people, depending on how the timings work out.

The variants are able to evade some of the antibodies produced by the 1st generation of vaccines but there is no evidence that the T cell response is compromised. People are still overwhelmingly protected against severe illness. It's just that more people get mild symptoms.

Ultimately the vaccines may not be able to eliminate the viral infection but they will probably downgrade this virus to what is expected to be the same sort of status as the four already commonly circulating Coronaviruses.

The virus will probably still circulate, but with most people having excellent immunity, it won't spread exponentially, people won't become very ill and won't pass it on to many others.

It will probably reach endemic equilibrium and won't be of particular concern. It may be possible to eliminate it completely but at the current stage it is unknown whether this is practicable, affordable or even necessary.

 

[Philip]

But based on work that has been ongoing for quite some time; they are not new from scratch.


What does this even mean?


The vast majority of people will.


There is no evidence to suggest the protection will be anything other than long lasting.

People who had the original Sars Coronavirus infection still have good immunity 17 years later!

Seasonal Coronaviruses are endemic but we reached equilibrium with them because our immune systems are able to recognise them. If immunity faded rapidly we'd have Coronavirus epidemics every year.


Yes of course they will.

It means I don't think it is sensible completely throwing all social distancing measures in the bin so soon. Besides what I say is irrelevant but the government have already hinted that there might be some restrictions next winter, so they clearly don't yet have 100% faith in the vaccines yet either, not because they're no good, just because there isn't enough data yet.

In reference to nightclubs, I wasn't expecting them to reopen this year because of the nature of them, so seeing them on the reopening list from 21st June was a surprise and, in my opinion, too early.

 

[Scotrail12]

In reference to nightclubs, I wasn't expecting them to reopen this year because of the nature of them, so seeing them on the reopening list from 21st June was a surprise and, in my opinion, too early.

If you owned a nightclub, would you feel the same?

 

[philosopher]

Not sure why you're saying I have a selfish obsession about restricting people's lives when I have explained my concerns and reasoning above. I think selfish is a more accurate term for the people who have been attending or organising illegal house parties and raves over this last year.

The situation is delicate and still will be come the summer whether you like it or not. I am not saying we should keep harsh restrictions in place, but neither should it be a free-for-all, until global vaccination has progressed sufficiently and when variant designed vaccines have been rolled out, and yes when we have more data about vaccine efficacy.

Even when the government do remove all restrictions this year, not all people will go back to the way they were behaving in 2019. Some people will continue to wear masks on public transport and in shops or be weary of going to crowded locations while others may continue to work from home.

However when most people have been vaccinated, I do think people should have the choice on how to behave. If individuals are Ok with the slightly higher risk of catching Covid-19 from certain activities such as going to nightclubs they should have the choice to do that.

 

[yorkie]

It means I don't think it is sensible completely throwing all social distancing measures in the bin so soon.

What's your proposal then exactly?

Besides what I say is irrelevant but the government have already hinted that there might be some restrictions next winter, so they clearly don't yet have 100% faith in the vaccines yet either, not because they're no good, just because there isn't enough data yet.

I won't be standing for restrictions next winter and I am sure many others won't either. Enough is enough!

In reference to nightclubs, I wasn't expecting them to reopen this year because of the nature of them, so seeing them on the reopening list from 21st June was a surprise and, in my opinion, too early.

No-one is forcing you to attend one!

 

[bramling]

Also I've heard reports that the larger name companies who manage holiday cottages/static caravans sites hiked prices up soon after the announcement was made.

Can't blame them really, supply & demand.

Similar to a hotel chain who last year was advertising "rooms from £29 or less" changing to be "£35 or less" on an email. I dread to think how more expensive hotels will be in the popular seaside locations over summer compared to previous years.

I had a hotel booked in Wales for mid-May. As it happens I’ve had to change the booking from May to June (for non-Covid-related reasons). The total cost for same length of stay seems to have inflated by about £120.

 

[Philip]

What's your proposal then exactly?


I won't be standing for restrictions next winter and I am sure many others won't either. Enough is enough!


No-one is forcing you to attend one!

I would have adopted a strategy similar to Summer 2020 for Summer 2021, with some incentives like 'Eat out to help out' to help boost the economy, whilst keeping the big transmission drivers closed or with strict social distancing measures in place, at least until the booster vaccination project is complete. By that time we'd have a better idea on efficacy etc.

 

[35B]

We have to be responsible? We as in the general public? I'm sorry but the ball falls onto the Governments of the UK for this mess not us.

Unfortunately, or not as may be, society is not just about what government decides. Our individual behaviour also has a role in the overall impact of Covid on this country.

 

[Scotrail12]

I would have adopted a strategy similar to Summer 2020 for Summer 2021, with some incentives like 'Eat out to help out' to help boost the economy, whilst keeping the big transmission drivers closed or with strict social distancing measures in place, at least until the booster vaccination project is complete. By that time we'd have a better idea on efficacy etc.

What was the point then in carrying out trials to see how effective vaccines were? If it wasn't effective, it would not be used. And why keep places shut just in case it isn't deemed effective? The sole point of the vaccine is to stop vulnerable people getting really unwell from COVID - not to eliminate it. If it's still around, it's not going to be of major risk.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I would have adopted a strategy similar to Summer 2020 for Summer 2021, with some incentives like 'Eat out to help out' to help boost the economy, whilst keeping the big transmission drivers closed or with strict social distancing measures in place, at least until the booster vaccination project is complete. By that time we'd have a better idea on efficacy etc.

Money doesn't grow on trees. How on earth is physical distancing (I still don't see what's "social" about humans not interacting with each other) sustainable economically for another year, possibly more, until we are out of respiratory virus season in 2021/22?

The young are the ones who have suffered the most throughout this crisis - the exams fiasco, education being put on hold for months, and they are at the least risk from the virus. They wil also be picking up the bill for this in the way of taxes in decades to come. What do you say to them?

If we get to a position whereby all of groups 1-9 are vaccinated and the NHS still needs protecting by the unvaccinated population having to sacrifice their lives and the economy kept on hold, then there is a severe issue which is deserving of a thread in its own right.

 

[kez19]

Unfortunately, or not as may be, society is not just about what government decides. Our individual behaviour also has a role in the overall impact of Covid on this country.

Yes we do have a responsibility but its not just down to us as individuals its also about those in power taking the responsibility too or shall we continue to allow them a free pass, its pretty clear that the blame game is always the public but not those in government.

Yet the media/politicians are running this charade in itself is more laughable - we'll give the public this, down the line media scare stories - public shouldn't have done this! Oh yes but be anyone higher up .. its a pass.


People have stuck to the rules that have been setup by our governments (who by chance chop/change like as if they are shopping for clothes or a new car) - people have had enough and are doing other wise isn't it time people woke up and seen the bigger picture or shall we continue heading towards a black hole? Its your choice - take a pill red/blue?

 

[Crossover]

I would have adopted a strategy similar to Summer 2020 for Summer 2021, with some incentives like 'Eat out to help out' to help boost the economy, whilst keeping the big transmission drivers closed or with strict social distancing measures in place, at least until the booster vaccination project is complete. By that time we'd have a better idea on efficacy etc.

Again, if it turns out to be ineffective, what do we do then?

 

[kez19]

Again, if it turns out to be ineffective, what do we do then?

I know, I know... rinse and repeat.

 

[yorkie]

Also reading reports about holiday bookings going through the roof the day after the lockdown easing was announced, somehow all this feels a bit like the mass superstore panic buying/stockpiling fiasco last March. I feel after all the patronising clapping last year, the least that could be done is to give all health care and care home workers along with some other obvious essential workers first dibs on holiday and hospitality bookings for the big reopening, with discounts.

I've never had a single period in my working life where I've not been an "essential worker" but would never have considered I should get priority over holiday bookings when compared to someone on a lower wage who works in retail or the hospitality sectors.

How would that actually work? I think a new thread would be best for your idea.

 

[Philip]

What was the point then in carrying out trials to see how effective vaccines were? If it wasn't effective, it would not be used. And why keep places shut just in case it isn't deemed effective? The sole point of the vaccine is to stop vulnerable people getting really unwell from COVID - not to eliminate it. If it's still around, it's not going to be of major risk.

The trials were not big enough to provide proof that the vaccines are effective, we'll only find that out as people are vaccinated! So far it all looks very good, but the trials didn't show the vaccines as a magic bullet, more to prove they're safe to use.

 

[yorkie]

What was the point then in carrying out trials to see how effective vaccines were? If it wasn't effective, it would not be used.

As it happens, the vaccines would have been approved if they had been a lot less effective than they are turning out to be. Many experts are expressing surprise at how effective these vaccines are, not just at avoiding severe disease but also mild illness and even transmission.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It means I don't think it is sensible completely throwing all social distancing measures in the bin so soon. Besides what I say is irrelevant but the government have already hinted that there might be some restrictions next winter, so they clearly don't yet have 100% faith in the vaccines yet either, not because they're no good, just because there isn't enough data yet.

In reference to nightclubs, I wasn't expecting them to reopen this year because of the nature of them, so seeing them on the reopening list from 21st June was a surprise and, in my opinion, too early.

We aren't its taking months to relax but given Whitty has consistently said that there is very limited transmission in outdoor settings its pretty disappointing they haven't reflected that in the roadmap.

I for one am totally persuaded that we need to crack on and open up now we need to be on full alert going into the Autumn with a world class surveillance systems which pick up any early rise in prevalence which may have to be dealt with by localised restrictions. The failure last Autumn was they didn't want to do another lockdown so delayed and delayed to take action and that led us into this current lockdown. Totally on BoJo & Hancocks shoulders and they know that so now they are making us pay the price for their failure. Can't change what happened but to penalise the majority so they can claim its all down to their action is morally bankrupt.

 

[35B]

What was the point then in carrying out trials to see how effective vaccines were? If it wasn't effective, it would not be used. And why keep places shut just in case it isn't deemed effective? The sole point of the vaccine is to stop vulnerable people getting really unwell from COVID - not to eliminate it. If it's still around, it's not going to be of major risk.

The trials tested a number of things. One they couldn’t test in the available time was the duration of immunity - for obvious reasons. And that will have a major bearing on the impact of vaccination - in the worst case from what has been reported, immunity of the weakest will be waning just as the 2nd jabs finish.

I believe that position unduly pessimistic, but there are still significant uncertainties.

Yes we do have a responsibility but its not just down to us as individuals its also about those in power taking the responsibility too or shall we continue to allow them a free pass, its pretty clear that the blame game is always the public but not those in government.

Yet the media/politicians are running this charade in itself is more laughable - we'll give the public this, down the line media scare stories - public shouldn't have done this! Oh yes but be anyone higher up .. its a pass.


People have stuck to the rules that have been setup by our governments - people have had enough and are doing other wise isn't it time people woke up and seen the bigger picture or shall we continue heading towards a black hole? Its your choice - take a pill red/blue?

I agree, the responsibility is joint. And to me that means accepting the good intentions of government even where they fail, not assuming ill intent.

 

[Philip]

I've never had a single period in my working life where I've not been an "essential worker" but would never have considered I should get priority over holiday bookings when compared to someone on a lower wage who works in retail or the hospitality sectors.

How would that actually work? I think a new thread would be best for your idea.

I would imagine NHS card numbers to be typed into a booking form, or if not an NHS worker then to state your job in the field on the booking form, along with some proof of employment, like a NI number if that would be legitimate proof.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I believe that position unduly pessimistic, but there are still significant uncertainties.

So lets say the vaccine has its full efficacy for 2 months, then dwindles down to 0 efficacy within 6 months. Where do we go from here? (This is, of course, unduly pessimistic, but it is something that ought to be considered)

I would imagine NHS card numbers to be typed into a booking form, or if not an NHS worker then to state your job in the field on the booking form, along with some proof of employment, like a NI number if that would be legitimate proof.

If you prioritise NHS workers for holidays then we'll end up having to go under house arrest again so that the NHS can be protected as there's less capacity.

 

[kez19]

The trials tested a number of things. One they couldn’t test in the available time was the duration of immunity - for obvious reasons. And that will have a major bearing on the impact of vaccination - in the worst case from what has been reported, immunity of the weakest will be waning just as the 2nd jabs finish.

I believe that position unduly pessimistic, but there are still significant uncertainties.


I agree, the responsibility is joint. And to me that means accepting the good intentions of government even where they fail, not assuming ill intent.

Well look whats happening all around then since the invention of lockdown appeared - as I keep reading .. 3 weeks to flatten the curve to nearly a year and the goalpost movement, i'm sorry but why should I trust what Sturgeon or Boris let alone media say over everything else? I have a life to live just as everyone else has but its fine to keep us locked in but its ok for that lot to do whatever they feel like? Nah the endgame is near.

 

[yorkie]

I would imagine NHS card numbers to be typed into a booking form, or if not an NHS worker then to state your job in the field on the booking form, along with some proof of employment, like a NI number if that would be legitimate proof.

It's really going to be up to the companies if they want to do this; some already do! I show my ID card to get a discount at Morrisons but in all honesty it could easily be forged. If you are going to be giving substantial discounts to holidays booked online it is very open to fraud. A hospitality company would not be able to do anything with a guest's NI number!

If you wish to explore this idea further you will need to make a new thread.

 

[Philip]

So lets say the vaccine has its full efficacy for 2 months, then dwindles down to 0 efficacy within 6 months. Where do we go from here? (This is, of course, unduly pessimistic, but it is something that ought to be considered)


If you prioritise NHS workers for holidays then we'll end up having to go under house arrest again so that the NHS can be protected as there's less capacity.

Well, I'm not an essential worker but I'd say many NHS and other care workers deserve a holiday as soon as possible.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Well, I'm not an essential worker but would say many NHS and other care workers deserve a holiday as soon as possible.

Don't we all?!

 

[kez19]

I would imagine NHS card numbers to be typed into a booking form, or if not an NHS worker then to state your job in the field on the booking form, along with some proof of employment, like a NI number if that would be legitimate proof.

Why would I that works in care do this for a sake of a discount? I didn't get discounted on public transport/supermarkets - the only thing I was able to go for if I wanted too was arrive early at a supermarket but other than that I have paid the same as everyone else.

Why don't I just take my passport as proof that solves the issue? Been doing that since I turned 18!

 

[35B]

So lets say the vaccine has its full efficacy for 2 months, then dwindles down to 0 efficacy within 6 months. Where do we go from here? (This is, of course, unduly pessimistic, but it is something that ought to be considered)

I’ve no idea what the implications of that are on policy, and really don’t want to contemplate the implications in any direction.

 

[Philip]

Don't we all?!

I would say them more so. Many have barely had a break since 2019, along with everything they've had to deal with in their jobs.

 

[Crossover]

A hospitality company would not be able to do anything with an guest's NI number!

I’m glad someone has kade this point. For most, it’ll be a meaningless alphanumeric ‘jumble’