22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[DorkingMain]

Even in the context of staggering numbers of lateral flow tests being done, there has been a consistent drop in infection numbers. COVID isn't going to suddenly appear out of nowhere.

 

[Ediswan]

But he added the "ratio of cases to deaths will go right down" compared to previous waves of the virus, due to the vaccine kicking in.

Boris has that backwards. The ratio of deaths to cases will be much lower than previously.

 

[Class 33]

I think the opposition (ie Baker et al) need to start coming down much more harshly on this sort of thing. As far as I'm concerned Johnson and these scientists are just making anti-vaxxer statements at this point. They need to stop pretending like the vaccines don't work.

I agree. It seems this week the likes of Johnson, Whitty and Vallance seem to have completely forgotten the effect the vaccines are having and will continue to have! Johnson sounded somewhat pesimmistic in his conference on Monday. It's ridiculous.

 

[Richard Scott]

Johnson today saying there are signs of a Covid surge in Europe and UK may be next...

Boris Johnson warns there are signs of Covid surge in Europe and UK may be next

The Prime Minister said re-opening schools would 'inevitably' add to the 'budget of risk'

www.mirror.co.uk

To be honest it's a case of so what. We've got the vaccine we've proved lockdowns don't eradicate it. We can't stay inside forever, most of us have worked out we've got to live with it. The politicians need to as well.

 

[Eyersey468]

To be honest it's a case of so what. We've got the vaccine we've proved lockdowns don't eradicate it. We can stay inside forever, most of us have worked out we've got to live with it. The politicians need to as well.

I agree. Sometimes it seems as though the penny is finally starting to drop with them that we have to live with it and can't stay in Lockdown forever then they come out with doom and gloom again

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Does anyone know how much money has been wasted spent on the Nightingale hospitals?

replying to questions in Parliament:
Parliamentary Questions 11662
£532m overall: £222m set up, £310m other costs.
The table below (govt costs) totals £220m so I assume the Wales / Scotland / N Ireland costs are funded from their own budgets rather than the figures given.

The forecast for total costs including set-up, running costs, stand-by costs, and costs of decommissioning across all Nightingales will reach around £532 million covering the tail end of 2020/21 and 2021/22.

Nightingale Hospitals	beds	govt cost	other cost
Glasgow SEC	1,000​
Sunderland	460​	£ 20.10
Harrogate Convention Centre	500​	£ 27.31	£ 2.00
Manchester Central	750​	£ 23.47
Belfast City Hospital	230​
Birmingham NEC	4,000​	£ 66.41
Bristol UWE	1,000​	£ 14.21
Cardiff Principality Stadium
Exeter	160​	£ 11.16
London Excel	4,000​	£ 57.41

 

[Dent]

I agree. Sometimes it seems as though the penny is finally starting to drop with them that we have to live with it and can't stay in Lockdown forever then they come out with doom and gloom again

The seem to have realised that several times now, but they always forget it again by the next day.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I agree. Sometimes it seems as though the penny is finally starting to drop with them that we have to live with it and can't stay in Lockdown forever then they come out with doom and gloom again

They've only become prominent due to virus and aren't about to give up being in the limelight but the real issue is they've become so immersed in the problem they've lost the wider perspective and clearly are completely out of touch with the consequences on ordinary people. What we need now is an independent group charged with looking at how you balance managing covid without wrecking the rest of society although its clear you can't return as it was currently.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Less than on the failed NHS Serco test and trace.

Which is £22bn for 20/21 and a further £15bn in 2021/22
Parliamentary Questions 153136

Total NHS costs were £52bn in 2020/21.

£bn	Notes
£22.000​	£22 billion for the Test and Trace programme;
£15.000​	over £15 billion for the procurement of personal protective equipment;
£2.700​	£2.7 billion to support the development and procurement of vaccines.
£3.000​	£3 billion for a package of additional capacity initiatives to support the National Health Service through the winter, including keeping the Nightingale hospitals capacity available, accessing increased capacity from independent sector providers and supporting increased safe discharge of patients from NHS hospitals.
?	Additionally, we have implemented a temporary NHS finance regime for the first half of the year that ensured every penny spent in NHS systems was fully reimbursed.
£2.700​	provided approximately £2.7 billion extra funding to cover the second half of this financial year, to support NHS organisations to manage ongoing COVID-19 pressures and resume routine activity.
£1.460​	We have provided up to £1.46 billion for infection control and other grants, funding predominantly given to local authorities to help cover the costs of implementing measures to reduce transmission. This was first introduced in May 2020 and was then extended to March 2021.
£0.222​	Nightingale set up costs
£0.310​	Nightingale other costs. The forecast for total costs including set-up, running costs, stand-by costs, and costs of decommissioning across all Nightingales will reach around £532 million covering the tail end of 2020/21 and 2021/22.
£2.700​	A further £2.7 billion will go directly to Integrated Care Systems and sustainability and transformation partnerships through the rest of the financial year to help manage ongoing COVID-19 pressures and resume routine activity.
£0.450​	To upgrade accident and emergency departments ahead of winter, the Government has also committed £450 million to expand waiting areas, create more treatment cubicles and improve infection control.
£1.000​	Under the agreement, latest figures show that from 30 March until 30 August 2020 over 967,000 National Health Service patient appointments have taken place within independent facilities. We cannot provide a breakdown of the amounts paid to each independent sector Provider, however, the total for this period is estimated at £1 billion.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Which is £22bn for 20/21 and a further £15bn in 2021/22
Parliamentary Questions 153136

Total NHS costs were £52bn in 2020/21.

£bn	Notes
£22.000​	£22 billion for the Test and Trace programme;
£15.000​	over £15 billion for the procurement of personal protective equipment;
£2.700​	£2.7 billion to support the development and procurement of vaccines.
£3.000​	£3 billion for a package of additional capacity initiatives to support the National Health Service through the winter, including keeping the Nightingale hospitals capacity available, accessing increased capacity from independent sector providers and supporting increased safe discharge of patients from NHS hospitals.
?	Additionally, we have implemented a temporary NHS finance regime for the first half of the year that ensured every penny spent in NHS systems was fully reimbursed.
£2.700​	provided approximately £2.7 billion extra funding to cover the second half of this financial year, to support NHS organisations to manage ongoing COVID-19 pressures and resume routine activity.
£1.460​	We have provided up to £1.46 billion for infection control and other grants, funding predominantly given to local authorities to help cover the costs of implementing measures to reduce transmission. This was first introduced in May 2020 and was then extended to March 2021.
£0.222​	Nightingale set up costs
£0.310​	Nightingale other costs. The forecast for total costs including set-up, running costs, stand-by costs, and costs of decommissioning across all Nightingales will reach around £532 million covering the tail end of 2020/21 and 2021/22.
£2.700​	A further £2.7 billion will go directly to Integrated Care Systems and sustainability and transformation partnerships through the rest of the financial year to help manage ongoing COVID-19 pressures and resume routine activity.
£0.450​	To upgrade accident and emergency departments ahead of winter, the Government has also committed £450 million to expand waiting areas, create more treatment cubicles and improve infection control.
£1.000​	Under the agreement, latest figures show that from 30 March until 30 August 2020 over 967,000 National Health Service patient appointments have taken place within independent facilities. We cannot provide a breakdown of the amounts paid to each independent sector Provider, however, the total for this period is estimated at £1 billion.

like to know how much PPE has been bought and who are the beneficiaries of that spending splurge

 

[Richard Scott]

like to know how much PPE has been bought and who are the beneficiaries of that spending splurge

Not sure I would, makes my blood boil thinking of all the money that's been thrown around in the name of this virus and ultimately we have to pick up the bill.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

like to know how much PPE has been bought and who are the beneficiaries of that spending splurge

Billions and billions and billions of items. But they do get through quite a lot each day.
The beneficiaries have, in part, been shown as start-up companies with minimal experience in health procurement who spotted an opportunity to act as middlemen, with varying levels of success. In fairness some, as reported in the press, simply supplied exactly what they were contracted to provide. There was an example of surgical gowns which were the correct specification but only single wrapped (rather than double wrapped) - but exactly what the doctor ordered.

Not sure I would, makes my blood boil thinking of all the money that's been thrown around in the name of this virus and ultimately we have to pick up the bill.

£376.3bn

Extracted from Spending Review 2020
Spending Review 2020

Table 2.1: Covid-19 spend summary (Total DEL) - public services	£bn	£bn	£bn	£bn
	2019-20 (1)	2020-21 (2)	2021-22 (3)	Total
Departmental funding for business support	0​	150.3​	55.6​	205.9​
Support for public services	2.2​	113.5​	54.7​	170.4​
of which
Health services	0​	52.4​	21.2​	73.6​
Local government funding for England	1.6​	6.3​	3.2​	11.1​
Transport	0.6​	12.8​	2.1​	15.4​
Education	0​	1.4​	0.4​	1.8​
DWP funding to support employment and frontline services	0​	1.9​	3.7​	5.5​
Other public services	0​	2.9​	0.3​	3.3​
Funding for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland	0​	10.5​	2.6​	13.1​
Covid-19 reserve: allowance for further Covid-19 costs	0​	25.3​	21.3​	46.6​

 

[Crossover]

Cases have crept up a little over last week

They are still going down. The drop week on week is less prominent but they are still going down. This is in spite of a vast vast increase in the number of tests being carried out (over 200% increase yesterday and today over any previous day, let alone the matching two days last week)

 

[cuccir]

I agree. Sometimes it seems as though the penny is finally starting to drop with them that we have to live with it and can't stay in Lockdown forever then they come out with doom and gloom again

Isn't it mainly just discourse though? There is an obvious reason to "talk down" progress over the next two-three months. Loads of mixing now would be a mistake - people's immunity is developing, not full, and most people are still not vaccianted. Loads of mixing in mid-June will be fine - most people will be as immune as they will be, and the majority will have some immunity. My reading is that of all the times in the pandemic, the next 6-12 weeks is the time for a version of 'project fear', because people are itching to get free and need to be persuaded to wait a few more weeks.

 

[bramling]

Isn't it mainly just discourse though? There is an obvious reason to "talk down" progress over the next two-three months. Loads of mixing now would be a mistake - people's immunity is developing, not full, and most people are still not vaccianted. Loads of mixing in mid-June will be fine - most people will be as immune as they will be, and the majority will have some immunity. My reading is that of all the times in the pandemic, the next 6-12 weeks is the time for a version of 'project fear', because people are itching to get free and need to be persuaded to wait a few more weeks.

There may well actually be an element of sense to this, as I can certainly think of someone known to me who ended up having a Covid death, which arose essentially due to vaccine complacency.

However I'm not sure more "project fear" is the answer to that, nor is more restrictions. How about Boris just be honest with people and explains things as it is?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

They are still going down. The drop week on week is less prominent but they are still going down. This is in spite of a vast vast increase in the number of tests being carried out (over 200% increase yesterday and today over any previous day, let alone the matching two days last week)

Argh yes forgot to check that and hadn't realised how much they've gone up and looks like PCR tests are just over 50% now and rest are presumably LFDs so that's going to push up case numbers as well as generating false positives. No doubt that will be latched onto by govt as oh case numbers aren't coming down enough despite positivity rate has fallen well below 5% which is WHO definition of a pandemic.

 

[initiation]

a few more weeks

Remember boys and girls, it's just 3 weeks to flatten the curve, 12 weeks to send the virus packing, normality by September, November then Christmas, then freedom once the vulnerable are vaccinated, then Easter and now mid-summer.

It's always just a few more bloody weeks. The ever shifting goalposts. When did giving everyone immunity become the goal?

If people want to throw away their lives hiding away that is fine, just don't force those who want to get back to actually living to do the same.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Isn't it mainly just discourse though? There is an obvious reason to "talk down" progress over the next two-three months. Loads of mixing now would be a mistake - people's immunity is developing, not full, and most people are still not vaccianted. Loads of mixing in mid-June will be fine - most people will be as immune as they will be, and the majority will have some immunity. My reading is that of all the times in the pandemic, the next 6-12 weeks is the time for a version of 'project fear', because people are itching to get free and need to be persuaded to wait a few more weeks.

I have the sense that Whitty, Valence and ministers are using project fear to keep us complying with current restrictions as much as possible so they can keep transmission down. However, its also beneficial to ensure the impact of relaxations aren't too contaminated with people deviating from the restrictions.

 

[backontrack]

You can guarantee that when the students go back !

I just commented to one of my colleagues that whats the betting that when we all get back together, there will be an increase in "Freshers Flu" due to folk not mixing much for a good few months!

I'll be a fresher this autumn...

I'll get the Lemsip in.

(EDIT: My 6000th post on here, and it's about freshers' flu...)

 

[Crossover]

No doubt that will be latched onto by govt as oh case numbers aren't coming down enough despite positivity rate has fallen well below 5% which is WHO definition of a pandemic.

I saw 0.3% positivity rate mentioned elsewhere yesterday

 

[Huntergreed]

I saw 0.3% positivity rate mentioned elsewhere yesterday

I think that's likely talking about the false positivity rate of 0.3% for lateral flow tests which have just started rolling out in schools (yesterday over 2% of the whole population got tested!)

 

[Crossover]

I think that's likely talking about the false positivity rate of 0.3% for lateral flow tests which have just started rolling out in schools (yesterday over 2% of the whole population got tested!)

I’ve just checked the numbers. Positive cases for 9th Mar, divided by the 1.3ish million tests carried out

0.41% positivity, I make it

 

[Huntergreed]

I’ve just checked the numbers. Positive cases for 9th Mar, divided by the 1.3ish million tests carried out

0.41% positivity, I make it

I take it back, that's an astonishingly low positivity rate (and it is the reason why we would be out of lockdown NOW)

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I take it back, that's an astonishingly low positivity rate (and it is the reason why we would be out of lockdown NOW)

The positivity rate is a bit of a false indicator imo (and is one that the Scottish Government seem to have an obsession over).

In the summer it was used to calculate the "percentage of newly test people testing positive", now it is "the percentage of all tests returned positive". I believe the WHO say an epidemic is under control when less than 5% of surveillance tests are being returned positive - i.e. the ONS method.

Personally I wouldn't include LFTs in the positivity calculation as that will give a much lower positivity rate (what do you expect when you are testing asymptomatic, healthy people?), so as per usual it is easy to manipulate statistics to suit one's narrative.

 

[Class 33]

Just look at this short summary of the numbers in hospital over the past 4 weeks.

15th February - 20,993
22nd February - 16,850 ( a drop of 4,143 from the week before)
1st March - 12,885 (a drop of 3,965 from the week before)
8th March - 9,435 ( a drop of 3,450 from the week before)

Just look at how much they're falling week on week. Let's assume the next few weeks the numbers continue to fall at an average of around 2,800 per week. This would mean that by the end of this month the numbers in hospital would only be around 1,000! That would be around 40 times less than they were at the peak in mid January! And a tumble of 97%!!! There will certainly be no valid justifications if they delay the 29th March lockdown easing!

I expect there will be a Downing Street News Conference tomorrow or Friday though. And no doubt whoever's hosting it along with one of the others attending will no doubt still be saying the same old tiresome comments of "The number of people currently in hospital with Coronavirus is 8,950(or whatever the figure is). That number is still far too high." and "The NHS is still under a great deal of pressure.". You watch, I bet they will say this!

 

[david1212]

To be honest it's a case of so what. We've got the vaccine we've proved lockdowns don't eradicate it. We can't stay inside forever, most of us have worked out we've got to live with it. The politicians need to as well.

Which effectively is what BoJo said on 22nd February .....

 

[cuccir]

Remember boys and girls, it's just 3 weeks to flatten the curve, 12 weeks to send the virus packing, normality by September, November then Christmas, then freedom once the vulnerable are vaccinated, then Easter and now mid-summer.

It's always just a few more bloody weeks. The ever shifting goalposts. When did giving everyone immunity become the goal?

If people want to throw away their lives hiding away that is fine, just don't force those who want to get back to actually living to do the same.

It's never just been a few more weeks. If you genuinely believes Boris when he said that this time last year you were a fool. If you don't believe that it's just a few more weeks now, you're paranoid.

OK that's a bit facetious. But seriously, last spring and in the autumn it was only politicians talking about 'normality by Christmas' or whatever. But now most scientists, modellers, statisticians are talking about it. The mistake is to listen to the political voices first.

 

[Bantamzen]

Isn't it mainly just discourse though? There is an obvious reason to "talk down" progress over the next two-three months. Loads of mixing now would be a mistake - people's immunity is developing, not full, and most people are still not vaccianted. Loads of mixing in mid-June will be fine - most people will be as immune as they will be, and the majority will have some immunity. My reading is that of all the times in the pandemic, the next 6-12 weeks is the time for a version of 'project fear', because people are itching to get free and need to be persuaded to wait a few more weeks.

I know how this all goes. In March we just need to wait until June, then come June it will be too soon, we need to wait until September. Then come September....
No thanks.

 

[Eyersey468]

I know how this all goes. In March we just need to wait until June, then come June it will be too soon, we need to wait until September. Then come September....
No thanks.

It wouldn't surprise me to be honest. I'm not prepared to give Boris the benefit of the doubt. None of them deserve it.

 

[Bantamzen]

It wouldn't surprise me to be honest. I'm not prepared to give Boris the benefit of the doubt. None of them deserve it.

Its not so much BoJo & Co I'm worried about, its the forever-lockdown brigade that are still trying to push a "new normal" narrative. It seems that at every turn for the better, they are inventing new ways to try to scare the politicians into kicking relaxations down the road "just in case". We have seen it with things like the "variants of concern" that they merrily latched onto, and you just know that even the slightest blip in decreasing infection numbers will be leapt upon with glee as "evidence that it is too soon". The government has set the path out, the Chancellor has told us in no uncertain terms that we cannot afford more lockdowns, and the public are jaded and tired. So it is important we hold them to the roadmap as a maximum, not minimum period of returning to normality.