An alternative East-West route and end station

[flitwickbeds]

Don't forget one poster of this parish was recently bemoaning that a trip from Cricklewood to Sheffield heading north meant multiple changes and connection times. The fact the easiest journey was via St Pancras was "wrong" because it meant heading south to go north...

While I was not the person you refer to, I do find it frustrating that the East Midlands connection between London routes is at Kettering and not Bedford (although ideally it would be both).

I used to do Flitwick to Market Harborough very regularly. One change at Bedford, nice and easy.

Now there are 2 changes to get between places just 4 stations apart. I can't be bothered to get on and off three separate trains (almost one per station stop!) to make a journey like that.

I drive now.

 

[Magdalia]

It is not surrounded by large dormitory urban areas outwith the formal city boundaries, like Manchester, but by green fields and rural villages.

Yes it is. They are called Northstowe, Cambourne, Ely and Royston. Waterbeach will be added soon.

Other towns near Cambridge, for example St Ives, St Neots, Saffron Walden, Haverhill and Newmarket, also provide significant commuter flows into Cambridge.

Its main station is very poorly sited for commuting

Incorrect. Read this bit again.

Cambridge (Central), CB1 development with Amazon, Google, Apple, Deloitte etc next door)

Have you been to the area around Cambridge station at any time in the last 10 years? Cambridge Assessment, Cambridge University Press and Hills Road College can also be added to this list, plus most of the big solicitors based in Cambridge. The area around Cambridge station is now a thriving employment hub, the assertion that it is poorly located for commuting is outdated.

 

[CBlue]

Yes it is. They are called Northstowe, Cambourne, Ely and Royston. Waterbeach will be added soon.

Other towns near Cambridge, for example St Ives, St Neots, Saffron Walden, Haverhill and Newmarket, also provide significant commuter flows into Cambridge.

And increasingly further afield - my current employer has people commuting in from Bury St Edmunds, Huntingdon and Bedford!


I'm not sure where @daodao is coming from, given that recently an additional station in the North of the city has opened and is soon to be joined by a counterpart on the southern edge - which may well be served by east west rail and serves one of the biggest new employment areas in the city.

The 2021 census figure doesn't really add anything as the city outgrew its boundaries years ago. Lots of the new housing has been built outside of the city council area and is technically in Cambridgeshire itself.

Don't forget that pre-covid pandemic the coach service between Cambridge and Oxford required a capacity upgrade almost immediately after new coaches were purchased for the services - despite the half hourly frequency it wasn't unusual to have a well-filled coach at least as far as Milton Keynes, often taking on another full load bound for Oxford upon arrival there. The limited capacity and now split of the service is suppressing demand on the route more than anything.

 

[zwk500]

While I was not the person you refer to, I do find it frustrating that the East Midlands connection between London routes is at Kettering and not Bedford (although ideally it would be both).

I used to do Flitwick to Market Harborough very regularly. One change at Bedford, nice and easy.

Now there are 2 changes to get between places just 4 stations apart. I can't be bothered to get on and off three separate trains (almost one per station stop!) to make a journey like that.

I drive now.

Cricklewood to Sheffield is a very different journey to Flitwick to Market Harborough. In an ideal world more EMR trains would stop at Bedford, but as there appears not to be room to do that sacrificing a small flow such as between two small towns not too far apart in favour of London to the 5th largest city is not unreasonable.

 

[flitwickbeds]

Cricklewood to Sheffield is a very different journey to Flitwick to Market Harborough. In an ideal world more EMR trains would stop at Bedford, but as there appears not to be room to do that sacrificing a small flow such as between two small towns not too far apart in favour of London to the 5th largest city is not unreasonable.

Yes and no. They're both journeys which used to be able to be done in 1 change/2 trains, but now require a minimum of 2 changes/3 trains, and in the case of going into London and back out, costs more as well!

 

[Nottingham59]

Cricklewood to Sheffield is a very different journey to Flitwick to Market Harborough. In an ideal world more EMR trains would stop at Bedford,

I do find it frustrating that the East Midlands connection between London routes is at Kettering and not Bedford (although ideally it would be both).

It seems to me that there might be a case for the proposed Oxford-Bedford service on EWR to be extended to Leicester to give additional connectivity on the MML, and allow fast MML services to run non-stop to Leicester.

Even better would be a South-East connection at Manton, to allow a 1tph Oxford-Bedford-Peterborough service. And if that wouldn't see enough traffic to justify a new 500m single-track chord, then forget about building a whole new railway between Bedford and Cambridge.

 

[fandroid]

Bristol yes but Swindon no and Bath doubtful from MK. The only people doing MK-Swindon are either residents of swindon or NR staff heading between the offices.

Don't underestimate Bath as a leisure destination. I was on a five car IET to Bristol yesterday morning that was full and standing from Paddington and kept ramming more and more in until Bath, where (without exaggeration) around half the passenger load disembarked.

 

[zwk500]

It seems to me that there might be a case for the proposed Oxford-Bedford service on EWR to be extended to Leicester to give additional connectivity on the MML, and allow fast MML services to run non-stop to Leicester.

I don't really think that case would stack up. Oxford - Leicester is served via Birmingham and I doubt an EWR journey time would compare. The level of commuting from MML towns to MK is low enough, let alone Oxford. You'd just be stitching a Bedford-Leicester onto a Oxford-Bedford for additional operational pain.
Perhaps 1 of the Corby tph could be diverted (or with Bi-mode/electrification extended via Melton Mowbray) to Leicester, or a path found for an extra train per hour between St Pancras and Leicester.

Even better would be a South-East connection at Manton, to allow a 1tph Oxford-Bedford-Peterborough service. And if that wouldn't see enough traffic to justify a new 500m single-track chord, then forget about building a whole new railway between Bedford and Cambridge.

But Peterborough isn't where the traffic is heading from Bedfordshire. Traffic from St Neots and Cambourne is heading to Cambridge. There's also a not insignificant flow from the Herts area to MK, as companies have concentrated offices there but people haven't moved house, instead choosing to commute via the A421. The massive upgrade to that road is indicative of the level of traffic in that direction.

Don't underestimate Bath as a leisure destination. I was on a five car IET to Bristol yesterday morning that was full and standing from Paddington and kept ramming more and more in until Bath, where (without exaggeration) around half the passenger load disembarked.

BIB is key. I don't underestimate Bath as a leisure destination but don't overestimate the flow from individual towns/cities. Bath deserves a regular frequency service from London (as it has) and Birmingham (which it doesn't) as they concentrate traffic and have high numbers looking to travel to start with. MK is large and rapidly growing, but it's still only c.25% the population of Birmingham and most people I knew from MK flew to Europe for holidays rather than taking UK city breaks.
As I've mentioned, extensions of EWR to Reading would make a lot of economic sense. Operationally it may be better to restore the 2tph London-Oxford Semi-fasts which are now split at Didcot so that there's 3 or 4tph to Reading from Oxford, giving interchange opportunities to the entire GWR network with 2 trains from MK, still a handy alternative to in-and-out of London for those who wish to avoid the crowd/save a few bob. Half-hourly MK-Oxford and half-hourly Oxford-Reading would mean connections are unlikely to be higher than 20 minutes, enough time for a cup of tea. Then it's the change at Reading, which while not ideal is still fully accessible and every train calls there so you have the full range of services via all variations of the GWML routes to pick from.

 

[A0wen]

Cricklewood to Sheffield is a very different journey to Flitwick to Market Harborough. In an ideal world more EMR trains would stop at Bedford, but as there appears not to be room to do that sacrificing a small flow such as between two small towns not too far apart in favour of London to the 5th largest city is not unreasonable.

I don't agree that more should stop at Bedford - the demand isn't there. Luton Airport Parkway possibly, because of the airport traffic, but Bedford makes no sense.

 

[zwk500]

I don't agree that more should stop at Bedford - the demand isn't there. Luton Airport Parkway possibly, because of the airport traffic, but Bedford makes no sense.

Bedford is the terminus of Thameslink and so the interchange is the offer. However this is symptomatic of the MML's perennial problem - they don't have towns or stations that clearly dominate the travel patterns that can be served in a logical pattern, and are instead forced to juggle stops between services to try and keep everything moving towards London. They're also not helped by coming along relatively late and therefore having constrained station sites and more demanding infrastructure.

 

[A0wen]

Bedford is the terminus of Thameslink and so the interchange is the offer. However this is symptomatic of the MML's perennial problem - they don't have towns or stations that clearly dominate the travel patterns that can be served in a logical pattern, and are instead forced to juggle stops between services to try and keep everything moving towards London. They're also not helped by coming along relatively late and therefore having constrained station sites and more demanding infrastructure.

Bedwyn is the terminus of the GW suburban but has very few long distance stoppers, same with Northampton on the WCML.

 

[PGAT]

Bedford is the terminus of Thameslink and so the interchange is the offer.

The fact that it's a terminus doesn't completely justify a stop though.

 

[flitwickbeds]

The fact that it's a terminus doesn't completely justify a stop though.

No, but it does mean reduce the number of connections required to make train travel more attractive and cheaper. Just like the Cricklewood-Sheffield example being ridiculed why they refuse to go into London and back out - I also wouldn't be happy with the solution of paying more to go south for a little bit in order to make a northbound journey (as I would have to do if the connection was at Luton/Parkway).

 

[zwk500]

Bedwyn is the terminus of the GW suburban but has very few long distance stoppers, same with Northampton on the WCML.

Bedwyn is on the B&H rather than the main line though, and Northampton is on a bit of a loop. However many Avantis do call at MKC, which is a reasonably accessible to people from Northampton with 2 or 3tph.

No, but it does mean reduce the number of connections required to make train travel more attractive and cheaper. Just like the Cricklewood-Sheffield example being ridiculed why they refuse to go into London and back out - I also wouldn't be happy with the solution of paying more to go south for a little bit in order to make a northbound journey (as I would have to do if the connection was at Luton/Parkway).

I don't see why a double back easement wouldn't be put in the permitted routing if all long-distance trains that stop on the edge of the commuter area were to stop at Luton Airport Parkway instead (for which there are several good arguments).

 

[flitwickbeds]

Bedwyn is on the B&H rather than the main line though, and Northampton is on a bit of a loop. However many Avantis do call at MKC, which is a reasonably accessible to people from Northampton with 2 or 3tph.

I don't see why a double back easement wouldn't be put in the permitted routing if all long-distance trains that stop on the edge of the commuter area were to stop at Luton Airport Parkway instead (for which there are several good arguments).

That would be nice. What would be even nicer is at least some trains which stop in Bedfordshire, Northamptonshire AND Leicestershire to avoid the easement being needed in the first place!

 

[A0wen]

That would be nice. What would be even nicer is at least some trains which stop in Bedfordshire, Northamptonshire AND Leicestershire to avoid the easement being needed in the first place!

Well if they stopped them at Luton Airport Parkway, they would - Luton Airport (Beds), Kettering (Northants) and Market Harborough / Leicester (Leics).

 

[zwk500]

That would be nice. What would be even nicer is at least some trains which stop in Bedfordshire, Northamptonshire AND Leicestershire to avoid the easement being needed in the first place!

There are a few morning Corby services extended to Melton Mowbray

 

[gingerheid]

The 2021 census figure doesn't really add anything as the city outgrew its boundaries years ago. Lots of the new housing has been built outside of the city council area and is technically in Cambridgeshire itself.

Yes - Orchard Park, Kings Meadows, Darwin Green, parts of West Cambridge, parts of Trumpington Meadows, the new parts of Cherry Hinton, most of the Wing development, Marleigh and most of the Cambridge North development extend the continuous built up area of Cambridge and are separated from other settlements in South Cambs, but are nevertheless located in South Cambs.

Fen Ditton, Milton, Histon, Impington, Girton, Hauxton & Fulbourn may also be separate places in South Cambs in their own rights that are separated from the built up area of Cambridge by something green, but in reality they are entirely consumed within Cambridge's orbit for all practical purposes.

The same argument is also true of other fast growing areas slightly further out like Great Shelford, Bottisham (in Suffolk), Waterbeach, Cottenham, Longstowe, Bar Hill, Cambourne etc. Even a decent percentage of Red Lodge is probably part of the growth in requirement for infrastructure in Cambridge!

The growth in the area is really quite unbelievable. I've only been here 18 years and sometimes I have to blink a bit to believe the change that's happened.

It's good that this growth has been matched with changes in railway infrastructure. It's hard to imagine Cambridge coping without platforms 7 & 8, Cambridge North (which itself is of course in South Cambs rather than Cambridge) would have most likely broken through 1m but for covid and I suspect will get there soon, and Cambridge South is the least of the additional improvements that need to follow these!

We don't just need EWR; we need redoubling to Newmarket and a link to Soham, a busway to Mildenhall, and either a railway or a busway to Haverhill.

 

[A0wen]

We don't just need EWR; we need redoubling to Newmarket and a link to Soham, a busway to Mildenhall, and either a railway or a busway to Haverhill.

Not sure what doubling to Newmarket achieves - it's not a freight route and the trains along it come from further afield, so there isn't capacity to uplift the service.

Soham would mean some kind of "circular" service, as well as new track - I can't see a Cambridge - Ely via Soham service working, not least because of capacity constraints at Ely which even if addressed would have other, more deserving cases for the freed up paths.

You won't get a busway to Mildenhall, not least because it would be shadowing the railway to Newmarket - which you want to double.

The only sensible option for Haverhill will be bus based. The challenge with both Haverhill and Mildenhall is they are outside Cambridgeshire so would need Suffolk to be interested and able to part fund it.

 

[ac6000cw]

Bottisham (in Suffolk)

Bottisham is in Cambridgeshire, as are places like Burwell, the Swaffhams, Soham, Fordham and even Chippenham (which is east of Newmarket).

I've only been here 18 years and sometimes I have to blink a bit to believe the change that's happened.

I moved to Cambridge in 1980 (roughly when the original Science Park development opened, Addenbrookes Hospital was still split between 'New' and 'Old' sites, the maternity hospital was on Mill Road, Papworth Hospital was in Papworth, the A45 'Cambridge Northern Bypass' and the (first) improved A614 route to Huntingdon were under construction (now both A14), and Pye/Philips were a major employer (where I had my first proper job). Express train services to London were 1 tph off-peak (to LST), service to KGX was a DMU shuttle to Royston, there was a sparse direct service to Norwich (otherwise it was 'change at Ely') and Ipswich services were 1tp2h, all diesel powered and mostly semaphore signalled.

The Cambridge area has been completely transformed in terms of employment, housing density and train services since then (particularly in the last two decades or so)...

 

[BrianW]

But there just aren't significant flows from Bucks to Bristol. Look at traffic on the motorways, there's no endless congestion on the cross country routes, between the M4 and the M1. It just doesn't justify the problems it'd cause to London-Bristol of Southampton-Birmingham passengers trying to run a direct train.

Trouble with Oxford- Swindon is that trains take up paths otherwise available from Bristol to London and Oxford to London. When I lived in Oxford some years back my son used to visit from Stroud changing onto a Swindon-Oxford train- not sure the latter were ever well-used, convenient as they may have been. Changing at Swindon and Didcot, though a nuisance were not exactly exacting.

Similarly elsewhere a significant advantage of East-West as currently envisaged is its connectivity without having to actually run on the main lines it crosses. It will be difficult enough coordinating a timetable for connections E and/or W > N and/or S at several places!

 

[Grumpy]

Trouble with Oxford- Swindon is that trains take up paths otherwise available from Bristol to London and Oxford to London.

Looking at Wantage Road on Realtime trains today the pattern seems to be five westbound trains/hour. Hardly congested. In a couple of cases there are 15 minute gaps between trains.

 

[zwk500]

Looking at Wantage Road on Realtime trains today the pattern seems to be five westbound trains/hour. Hardly congested. In a couple of cases there are 15 minute gaps between trains.

There are also freights to consider, and the westbound trains would be crossing both lines, slowly. Not impossible but suddenly you're tying together a gap at Didcot with a gap at Milton Keynes central.

 

[The Planner]

Looking at Wantage Road on Realtime trains today the pattern seems to be five westbound trains/hour. Hardly congested. In a couple of cases there are 15 minute gaps between trains.

Lots of fiddly things to take account of though. You have to use P4 at Didcot in the Swindon direction and would need around 4-5 minutes for the reversal, so 3 minutes after anything in front, then 3 minutes before anything can use it in the other direction, so 10 minutes gone there. Foxhall is 25mph and needs a 3 minute margin. Milton would be slightly better but not much. Then another minute or so to get up to speed at Wantage Road.
If you look at a standard hour at Didcot, the gaps on the fasts are relatively small to weave through. There is a xx.05 fast Padd, xx.06 Cheltenham, xx.12 Weston, xx.17 Padd, xx.24 fast Swansea, xx.27 Padd, xx.33 fast Padd, xx.40 Bristol, xx.54 fast Cardiff and xx.57 Padd. Not impossible but you have to hit the slots. The gap between the xx.40 and xx.54 making your life easiest.

 

[cle]

@William3000

As of the 2021 United Kingdom census, the population of Cambridge was only 145,700. It is not surrounded by large dormitory urban areas outwith the formal city boundaries, like Manchester, but by green fields and rural villages. Its main station is very poorly sited for commuting, and Cambridge North would not be served directly by East-West rail.

"St Neots, Bedford, Bicester, Coventry, Luton Airport, Luton, Milton Keynes, Birmingham Airport, Wellingborough, Northampton, Oxford. etc." Of these settlements, how many are cities? - just Oxford and Coventry, and the latter already has rail access from Cambridge by changing at Nuneaton. There will be minimal demand for travel from Cambridge to Birmingham Airport, given that Stansted Airport, with a wide range of services, is nearly on Cambridge's doorstep.

I think you're very tied up on population size and city status. Both do not determine rail demand solely. Many towns generate more rail traffic than cities do. It's a very simplistic way of looking at it.

And William has shared some the nuance (and glidepath) for why Cambridge is a focus, and has been, for some much expansion and rail investment.

Cambridge is a far more economically important place than, say Bradford - or even Coventry. Sorry, no disrespect to those folks. But some places punch far above their weight and Cambridge is probably the most in that definition. Add in tourism appeal and being a regional 'capital', you have plenty of travel patterns and use cases. Oxford has similar traits (not universities specifically, but the knowledge/tech/health economies they stimulate)

And Ely is the big reason why there isn't a ton more service up to Peterborough. But even with EWR, there would still be demand to ECML (a reason that HS2 docs called out a 1tph Cambridge-Leeds service on a future ECML, and 2tph Birmingham) - EWR won't feed the ECML, it will cross it, as per Tamworth - with no direct connection. And Leeds services would be unlikely to call at wherever the final station is.

 

[zwk500]

Cambridge is a far more economically important place than, say Bradford - or even Coventry. Sorry, no disrespect to those folks. But some places punch far above their weight and Cambridge is probably the most in that definition. Add in tourism appeal and being a regional 'capital', you have plenty of travel patterns and use cases. Oxford has similar traits (not universities specifically, but the knowledge/tech/health economies they stimulate)

Not sure about Cambridge being economically more important than Cov, but certainly it punches above it's weight and outranks many larger towns in the region. BIB is key, Universities attract high-value technical, technological and research-based companies, and Oxford and Cambridge as 2 extremely good univerisities attract proportionately more and higher value companies than other universities like those in the Russel group.

 

[Grumpy]

There are also freights to consider,

Ah yes the mythical freight card. In the period I looked at initially (10.00 to 11.59) there were no westbound freights.
Later in the day there seemed to be freight due to pass at 12.09, 14.12 and 20.38. Lots of unused Q paths but the reality was 3 actually trains over 10 hours

Lots of fiddly things to take account of though. You have to use P4 at Didcot in the Swindon direction and would need around 4-5 minutes for the reversal, so 3 minutes after anything in front, then 3 minutes before anything can use it in the other direction, so 10 minutes gone there. Foxhall is 25mph and needs a 3 minute margin. Milton would be slightly better but not much. Then another minute or so to get up to speed at Wantage Road.
If you look at a standard hour at Didcot, the gaps on the fasts are relatively small to weave through. There is a xx.05 fast Padd, xx.06 Cheltenham, xx.12 Weston, xx.17 Padd, xx.24 fast Swansea, xx.27 Padd, xx.33 fast Padd, xx.40 Bristol, xx.54 fast Cardiff and xx.57 Padd. Not impossible but you have to hit the slots. The gap between the xx.40 and xx.54 making your life easiest.

I appreciate all you have said. I had assumed routeing via the west curve at Didcot and not calling there.

 

[The Planner]

I appreciate all you have said. I had assumed routeing via the west curve at Didcot and not calling there.

Still need to find the gap on the mains though.

 

[zwk500]

Ah yes the mythical freight card. In the period I looked at initially (10.00 to 11.59) there were no westbound freights.
Later in the day there seemed to be freight due to pass at 12.09, 14.12 and 20.38. Lots of unused Q paths but the reality was 3 actually trains over 10 hours

Unused Q paths still have rights, unless you can persuade the FOC to release it. They can't just be ignored (A fact certain TOCs need reminding of far too often...). There are ways to bin the path if it isn't used but FOCs know about that and will generally make sure they run something in that path at the minimum interval to prevent the rights from lapsing.

 

[Brubulus]

Not sure what doubling to Newmarket achieves - it's not a freight route and the trains along it come from further afield, so there isn't capacity to uplift the service.

Soham would mean some kind of "circular" service, as well as new track - I can't see a Cambridge - Ely via Soham service working, not least because of capacity constraints at Ely which even if addressed would have other, more deserving cases for the freed up paths.

You won't get a busway to Mildenhall, not least because it would be shadowing the railway to Newmarket - which you want to double.

The only sensible option for Haverhill will be bus based. The challenge with both Haverhill and Mildenhall is they are outside Cambridgeshire so would need Suffolk to be interested and able to part fund

While entirely doubling Newmarket may not be needed, that line does need upgrades as the line speed is only 60mph and can only really support 1tph currently. Bury St Edmunds is not a small town and a local stopper would allow for Kennett and Dullingham to become useful railheads, along with the possible use of Kennett for a bus link to the Mildenhall area. It's got about half the population of Haverhill but its transport links are even worse with effectively . A new station at Fulbourn is probably also a good idea, as it can be a 45 min bus journey in peak times. Cherry Hinton is too close to the city to be an effective commuter station.
Upgrading the line to 75/90 mph plus extending and upgrading the loop at Dullingham to allow for 2tph to Cambridge.
An integrated bus/rail solution could easily provide Mildenhall-Cambridge journey times somewhat competitive with driving, even during off peak periods.
Haverhill needs a new rail line and while there are some minor issues regarding the alignment, the two main ones being the A11/A505 junction and the Meldham Washlands. These can both be resolved by a minor divergence from the original alignment, along with a divergence for the position of the junction at Shelford. Haverhill could be part funded by Granta Park/Babraham Research Campus, CPCA and Suffolk CC along with an element of direct central government funding. It might possibly be built as a light rail route, to reduce construction costs with single track except for a single passing loop, allowing for 2tph service.
The bus solution would lead to journey times of around an hour, effectively encouraging people to drive as far as they can before paying the congestion charge instead of railheading from as close as possible to where they live. Further the partial closure of the southern busway section puts on doubt of it will even avoid peak traffic on the southern edge of Cambridge. The per mile costs of said busway will be significantly lower than a relatively cheaply built rail link, especially of it has to be on a new alignment.