Are speculative ideas less popular?

[Sad Sprinter]

I remember from the late 2000s-mid 2010s, speculative ideas were a major part of railway or transport forums. It seems much less so now, have they fallen out of favour post-Brexit/Covid? Are people less starry eyed and more pragmatic? Personally I think discussing hypothetical railway ideas is the best part of the forum, not everyone likes it, but it seems that the collaborative culture of building new hypothetical railway plans has vanished.

 

[DerekC]

I agree the best days of speculative ideas seem to have passed. On this forum, at least, there seems to be quite a gang of transport realists waiting in the wings to douse every new idea with buckets of cold water and cries of "crayonista". Nothing wrong with polite realism, but the level of derision that some apply seems a pity. This part of the forum is, I think, intended to be where you can play with ideas without being tied tightly to a business case!

 

[JonathanH]

It seems to me that any next steps are rebuilding rail services in small increments rather than any kind of big projects. The money available for enhancements is established and there is an effective pipeline which already stretches about 20 years, so there is clearly less to speculate about.

The other point is that there is less capacity to expand services into now because most of the routes are full. There are routes like Waterloo to Reading where the service is as slow as it ever has been with an average speed below 40mph. You just can't imagine any money ever being found to do anything about it. It isn't the only one.

 

[The Planner]

The flames get doused because people know the piggy bank is empty and keeping a status quo is hard enough.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

It seems to me that any next steps are rebuilding rail services in small increments rather than any kind of big projects. The money available for enhancements is established and there is an effective pipeline which already stretches about 20 years, so there is clearly less to speculate about.

The other point is that there is less capacity to expand services into now because most of the routes are full. There are routes like Waterloo to Reading where the service is as slow as it ever has been with an average speed below 40mph. You just can't imagine any money ever being found to do anything about it. It isn't the only one.

The flames get doused because people know the piggy bank is empty and keeping a status quo is hard enough.

Right sure. But why is it that speculative transport enthusiasm was alive and kicking in the 2008-13 austerity years? Was it more so that the internet was still younger and transport enthusiasts were still finding each other in general? Or has there been a general societal shift to being less hopeful?

Personally I don't think the real-world environment matters, speculative transport planning is bloody fun!

 

[yorksrob]

I think that the OP has a point.

The pall of gloom that's blanketed the railway since the pandemic has led me to give up hope of much improvement for the time being (the sort of improvements I'd get excited by anyway).

 

[Iskra]

There was a time when rolling stock orders, service frequencies, open access operators etc were increasing on the network which bred a lot of optimism and therefore speculation on these forums. Covid blew a lot of that away and I think people are less likely to suggest new things as it's fairly obvious that unless it is in Wales, Scotland or London, nothing will come of anything as there won't be any funding available.

 

[CW2]

To develop any transport project you need an adequate balance between visionaries and bean counters. People who can combine these diverse skills are quite rare. Let's encourage the flow of novel ideas, but similarly let's not be downhearted when most of them seem improbable or unaffordable.

 

[JonathanH]

The pall of gloom that's blanketed the railway since the pandemic has led me to give up hope of much improvement for the time being (the sort of improvements I'd get excited by anyway).

At the same time, ideas like TransPennine Route Upgrade, East West Rail and Midland Main Line Electrification, and indeed (Phase 1 of) HS2 are happening. They raise an element of speculation about how the infrastructure will be used, but sometimes the speculation goes a little too far in what actually could result from those projects given any expansive ideas just find the next bottleneck along the line.

Those will be visible improvements for people to get enthusiastic about when they happen. Just don't expect the fares to come down to actually make them more affordable to use.

 

[yorksrob]

At the same time, ideas like TransPennine Route Upgrade, East West Rail and Midland Main Line Electrification, and indeed (Phase 1 of) HS2 are happening. They raise an element of speculation about how the infrastructure will be used, but sometimes the speculation goes a little too far in what actually could result from those projects given any expansive ideas just find the next bottleneck along the line.

Those will be visible improvements for people to get enthusiastic about when they happen.

They will be, but none of them date from after the Pandemic.

I can't see much on the horizon, unfortunately.

 

[JonathanH]

But why is it that speculative transport enthusiasm was alive and kicking in the 2008-13 austerity years?

One other thing that has happened is that we now aren't getting speculative reports from the railway itself about projects it could bring to the table. There seems to equally be a sense of realism there about what is going to get funding.

Didn't the Network Rail document for the current Control Period for the Southern area basically indicate that there were no enhancements proposed for its area at all for the foreseeable future?

 

[brad465]

They will be, but none of them date from after the Pandemic.

I can't see much on the horizon, unfortunately.

Okehampton is the first example that comes to mind of an improvement that's occurred despite covid. The heritage railway closed at the start of 2020, Network Rail announced they'd take over in early 2021. The Carstairs' remodelling is a key example of an upgrade to an existing line I can think of post-covid as well. Yes not so many rail improvement schemes seem to be on the horizon now, but they are there.

 

[Magdalia]

I remember from the late 2000s-mid 2010s, speculative ideas were a major part of railway or transport forums. It seems much less so now, have they fallen out of favour post-Brexit/Covid? Are people less starry eyed and more pragmatic?

But why is it that speculative transport enthusiasm was alive and kicking in the 2008-13 austerity years? Was it more so that the internet was still younger and transport enthusiasts were still finding each other in general? Or has there been a general societal shift to being less hopeful?

There is a huge difference between what you call the 2008-13 austerity years and what you call the post brexit/covid years.

In the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crash there was an assumption that economic growth would return to 2-3% per year as had been achieved in the past. If that happened, then there was prospect of being able to fund new investment.

Post brexit and covid we have had effectively zero economic growth for a long time, the public finances are screwed, getting back to 2-3% economic growth is the only way out, but it is going to be very hard to achieve that.

I think that being less starry eyed and more pragmatic is the sensible response.

 

[JamesT]

One other thing that has happened is that we now aren't getting speculative reports from the railway itself about projects it could bring to the table. There seems to equally be a sense of realism there about what is going to get funding.

Didn't the Network Rail document for the current Control Period for the Southern area basically indicate that there were no enhancements proposed for its area at all for the foreseeable future?

Wasn’t there a rejigging of finances so the Control Period allocation would only cover maintenance and enhancements would be dealt with separately?

 

[Sad Sprinter]

There is a huge difference between what you call the 2008-13 austerity years and what you call the post brexit/covid years.

In the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crash there was an assumption that economic growth would return to 2-3% per year as had been achieved in the past. If that happened, then there was prospect of being able to fund new investment.

Post brexit and covid we have had effectively zero economic growth for a long time, the public finances are screwed, getting back to 2-3% economic growth is the only way out, but it is going to be very hard to achieve that.

I think that being less starry eyed and more pragmatic is the sensible response.

That is true, that was my thoughts that "there just isn't any point anymore". Sad.

Nonetheless, there's nothing wrong with being defiantly starry-eyed, talking about my alternative route for HS2 is just fun, and no one else will want to discuss it with me anyway!

 

[YorksLad12]

I like speculative ideas (and I like Speculative Discussion). But there's more chance of me going on a date with Marisa Tomei and/or Halle Berry than there is of some suggestions that crop up here!

That said: some of the flights of fancy are way more entertaining than "Skipton-Colne!" or "Victoria! Penistone! Woodhead!"

 

[CW2]

Railways - and other large scale infrastructure projects - are by their very nature long term projects. People with vision understand that fact, and therefore have a tendency to exaggerated the benefits or underestimate the complexity and costs. On the other hand, people who worry about the size of the pile of magic beans will forever try to strangle expenditure, or switch funding on and off at short notice, heedless of the effect on the project delivery.

Long may this forum continue as a safe space for visionary wibble.

 

[SteveOfTheStow]

A single speculation forum never really caters to the two audiences well. Crayonistas want to have fun just playing crayons with others (and a forum is a great space to meet like-minded people with which to share those radical ideas!), whereas others are looking to talk about economically feasible challenges and almost build a business case for them.
You can be both types of person! (probably not at the same time)

But two forums would be best to ensure that the ‘realistic’ threads don’t get polluted with crayons, which annoys people, who then snap back at others who were just indulging fun ideas.

 

[The Planner]

Okehampton is the first example that comes to mind of an improvement that's occurred despite covid. The heritage railway closed at the start of 2020, Network Rail announced they'd take over in early 2021. The Carstairs' remodelling is a key example of an upgrade to an existing line I can think of post-covid as well. Yes not so many rail improvement schemes seem to be on the horizon now, but they are there.

Bear in mind Carstairs was on the drawing board way before covid.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

A single speculation forum never really caters to the two audiences well. Crayonistas want to have fun just playing crayons with others (and a forum is a great space to meet like-minded people with which to share those radical ideas!), whereas others are looking to talk about economically feasible challenges and almost build a business case for them.
You can be both types of person! (probably not at the same time)

But two forums would be best to ensure that the ‘realistic’ threads don’t get polluted with crayons, which annoys people, who then snap back at others who were just indulging fun ideas.

I did wonder that. SkyscraperCity was a bit like that, but the downside was, like all forums, it can be dominated by one or two particular characters so it was unpleasant anyway. I just want to talk about fantastical schemes. I know they’d probably not hold water, it’s why I didnt want to do a career in rail planning, I thought it would be a bit depressing seeing my hobby smash against the hard wall of benefit cost ratios.

The flames get doused because people know the piggy bank is empty and keeping a status quo is hard enough.

Great. The perfect environment for fantastical discussions then when it’s all going to hell in reality!

I like speculative ideas (and I like Speculative Discussion). But there's more chance of me going on a date with Marisa Tomei and/or Halle Berry than there is of some suggestions that crop up here!

That said: some of the flights of fancy are way more entertaining than "Skipton-Colne!" or "Victoria! Penistone! Woodhead!"

You would have loved London Reconnections in the mid ‘10s - some truly heroic ideas were made when we thought peak hour travel growth will continue uninterrupted to 2050! Such good days

 

[SynthD]

I suppose I could be accused of throwing cold water. There’s more discussion to be had by trying to explore the idea, rather than saying a general idea would be nice to have.

Some ideas, especially the grand ones, have a holistic idea applied a little off target. They leave one area too congested and another area lacking services or capable of taking more. It probably is a bit school teacher of us to tell them what to change because they didn’t know enough. I do it because I think they are a few tweaks away from a great idea.

 

[yorksrob]

Okehampton is the first example that comes to mind of an improvement that's occurred despite covid. The heritage railway closed at the start of 2020, Network Rail announced they'd take over in early 2021. The Carstairs' remodelling is a key example of an upgrade to an existing line I can think of post-covid as well. Yes not so many rail improvement schemes seem to be on the horizon now, but they are there.

Yes, to be fair, the TPE Wakefield services are pretty good.

I guess I'm at the stage of lapping up what is actually happening, rather than speculating.

The overall mood music is still of gloom though.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Bear in mind Carstairs was on the drawing board way before covid.

The history of the scheme goes way, way back! When I was on ScotRail back in the late 1980s I remember the frisson of surprise when InterCity hired a helicopter to view the alternatives of straightening out the Shotts line or building fast north and west curves at Carstairs. In the event the cheap and cheerful option of wiring the existing layout from Waverley to Carstairs was all that could be afforded but the idea never went away thereafter.

 

[Palmerston]

talking about my alternative route for HS2 is just fun, and no one else will want to discuss it with me anyway!

Go on, what is your alternative route for HS2?

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Go on, what is your alternative route for HS2?

Enjoy!

Another armchair rail planner's HSR masterplan no one asked for

I've had an idea for a theoretical high speed railway system that has been percolating in my mind for the past err...very long time - which I will now share with you all. Stop groaning in the back. First of all, this is entirely a thought experiment, so before you turn up at my house with...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Harpo]

The flames get doused because people know the piggy bank is empty and keeping a status quo is hard enough.

Exactly. The railway has made itself expensive and inflexible.

The twin strait jackets of TOC silos with resources of no immediate use to others, and DfT micro-management mean that any deviation from ‘plan A’ has huge cost.

 

[yorksrob]

The flames get doused because people know the piggy bank is empty and keeping a status quo is hard enough.

And the industry has made doing anything too expensive (see discussions past regarding wooden stations in West Yorkshire).

 

[Royston Vasey]

I've been posting on here for over 15 years and lurking for a few years before that. I do think the forums have lost a lot of the joy and innocence of the speculation, simple spotting and bashing, and pure enthusiasm, in every sense of the word.

That came with some childish My Lordz stuff, which was not as well segregated into child forums back then, but yes I do think the forums have become a lot more professional and realistic, with more balance between industry and enthusiast posters. Ideas, speculation, any kind of small misunderstanding of rules, numbering, timetabling etc are always quick to be corrected, and/or shot down. Posters are always polite about it, but it's all a bit more po-faced than it used to be.

That said, it's an immense hivemind of experience, knowledge, information and assistance, and on balance, a wonderful and safe space to discuss even the most fanciful of speculative ideas without abuse, and it's very well-moderated to maintain that.

We shouldn't underestimate the value of how, well, polite the forums are!

 

[A0]

Exactly. The railway has made itself expensive and inflexible.

The twin strait jackets of TOC silos with resources of no immediate use to others, and DfT micro-management mean that any deviation from ‘plan A’ has huge cost.

The railwasy have never been cheap - even in Victorian times they were expensive to build and generally expensive to travel on.

And the industry has made doing anything too expensive (see discussions past regarding wooden stations in West Yorkshire).

The issue is that in the 40 years that have passed since such solutions were used, other legislation around things like accessibility has changed beyond recognition. Now for reasons best known to yourself, you seem to believe the railway should be exempted from such legislation on the basis of "grandfather rights" or some other excuse. But that's not how the world works and as has been explained to you more times than I care to count, grandfather rights don't mean you can keep building things which don't meet current standards. What it does mean is that you can *continue to use* things which don't meet current standards, not expand on them. The analogy I gave was if you have a house built in 1970 with its original wiring you're not obliged to rip it all out and update it to the latest standards, however *if* you were to build an annexe in your garden, that *would* need to be wired to current standards. Similarly if the house needed re-wiring you'd need to do it to current standards.

So with 'wooden platforms' - those that already exist can stay, and over time should be improved to address accessibility concerns. If one were to burn to the ground, the expectation is its replacement would be to current standards, not the standards of 40 years ago. New installations on new sites have to meet current standards - no ifs, no buts. That's the law - and it applies to all commercial premsies equally, be it a bus station, airport, railway station, church, shop, council office. What I fail to understand is why you think this is unreasonable, apart from the fact it costs money - but it costs money to all those others as well.

 

[yoyothehobo]

I guess we have seen most of them before, thats the issue.

Yes there is the standard shuffling of rolling stock threads.

But several of them just seem to be "lets reopen this line Beeching closed" or "Lets miss out this major population centre so xxx tiny village can get 3 direct services to London per hour.

There is the frequent double decker train threads.

The frequent "my new sleeper train idea" threads.

I wonder whether we are just tired of the same old ideas being rehashed and frequently still not taking into account the real world situation of costs of running and constructing railways and often taking umbridge when the ideas are poo-pooed.

I guess do you want the ideas to be discussed from the perspective of enthusiasts or the railway professionals on the forum.