ASLEF strikes W/c 6th May

[Bald Rick]

But what you are ignoring is where we would be where the strikes not to be happening.

I’m not ignoring that at all.

Rail strikes cost UK £1bn and settling would have been cheaper, minister admits

Huw Merriman insists the need for reform to working practices made the standoff necessary

www.theguardian.com

Industrial action on railways cost sector £620 million in past year – figures

The Rail Delivery Group said the strikes threatened the industry’s ‘long-term sustainability’.

www.independent.co.uk

I would be interested to see more up to date figures but to say that this isn't hurting the economy is pretty disingenuous.

But that is about what it has cost the industry (which I am not doubting). And also when RMT were in full strike mode, which they are not now, and the whole network was affected.

Re the wider economy, that was in relation to the hospitality industry, which as I linked up thread with numbers published a few weeks ago, is very definitely not struggling any more.

 

[ComUtoR]

But I suppose the longer it goes on the government's thinking is that as people adapt and move to other modes the impact reduces.

The modal shift is almost mythical. Its infinitesimal.

For every person that's shifting away, someone else is commuting or making the choice to move from other forms of transport to rail because availability is better as crowds shift away. Modal shift goes both ways but passenger numbers are everywhere increasing.

Re the wider economy, that was in relation to the hospitality industry, which as I linked up thread with numbers published a few weeks ago, is very definitely not struggling any more.

But there is a cost involved. Hospitality does suffer. I wish the collateral damage wasn't real but I also do not want to downplay that for any specific political agenda.

We all know this could be resolved overnight. We all know this impacts staff, we all know the long term never changes.

I'm 20+ on the railway and we have the same issues I had when I first started.

The railway will endure. It always has and always will. Part of that endurance is because of the captive nature of travel. Those who use it, need it.

It's very sad that we are in a politically motivated dispute. The wider public are the victims here and they do have the power to step in. They also don't bother because their voices aren't loud enough and politically have minimal impact.

It sucks, none of us want to strike or be in this situation.

 

[Bald Rick]

Hospitality does suffer.

Very locally yes - coffee shops at some stations, maybe some London / regional city pubs / restaurants on certain strike days, but not all of them, and offset by other pubs / restaurnats doing rather better (which isnt so newsworthy)*. At macro level, it looks like it isn‘t, though, as that’s what the numbers are saying!

I wish the collateral damage wasn't real but I also do not want to downplay that for any specific political agenda.

I have absolutely no political agenda here. I just want to make sure the latest facts are heard.


*Purely anecdotal. When Thameslink are on strike, the coffee shops, pubs and restaurants in St Albans are all busier than normal, as people who would have gone to London work at home, walk up to town for their coffees, and/or simply go out locally. On the last strike people were queueing out the door of one coffee shop at 0730 in the morning! You never see that normally. People still spend the money, but in a different place. That’s why the damage done is very local, but not at a macro level.

 

[Kingston Dan]

I'm aiming to go from York/Northallerton to Edinburgh on the 11th May - any idea what effect the overtime ban will have?

 

[ComUtoR]

I have absolutely no political agenda here.

I make no accusation of that, apologies if you thought that was the case.

This strike is political. Both sides are pushing their agendas and tbh, sorta, rightfully so. Isn't that the point. Us staff on the ground, in general, care only about our terms being destroyed and the absence of a pay rise in some time.

*Purely anecdotal. When Thameslink are on strike, the coffee shops, pubs and restaurants in St Albans are all busier than normal, as people who would have gone to London work at home, walk up to town for their coffees, and/or simply go out locally. On the last strike people were wueijg out the door of one coffee shop at 0730 in the morning! You never see that normally. People still spend the money, but in a different place. That’s why the damage done is very local, but not at a macro level.

I worked in retail for many years and the trends to follow are influenced by more than just what local transport is doing. It also affects hospitality different as well as the event space. Cancelling a theatre trip can save you a bob or two but you might only put pennies back into a local pub. Also, cancelling trips into town has the secondary impact of spending habits of the entire day. Train fare into town, couple quid on sweets at the station, lunch/meal deal, pint in the boozer, casual shopping in the area, restaurant, late night drinks and social fun times, Uber home, and a shame kebab. There is a wider economical impact.

Now we are pulling out of Covid and its almost a distant memory, people are getting pay rises, the economy is pulling back and inflation is dropping slowly. Summer is fast approaching and overall spending is pushing towards healthy. There is too much to speculate over what is and isn't making an impact. I was listening to a retail analyst the other day discussing how much the weather is impacting the economy and how that shifts trends in where money is spent. It is far more complicated than either of us are suggesting. Football season is almost over (it is for me) so my weekends are free and I have spare beer money to buy some holiday T's.

 

[ChrisC]

I'm aiming to go from York/Northallerton to Edinburgh on the 11th May - any idea what effect the overtime ban will have?

I’m planning on doing a longer journey on 7th May travelling from Nottingham to Aberdeen. I’m going to set off very early in the morning and hope that I can arrive by mid afternoon. Hopefully I won’t have too many problems with cancellations but as long as I get there eventually that day I will be happy having cancelled this trip last year due to strikes.

 

[infobleep]

Last time round on overtime ban days SWR was only running a 50% service level outside the peaks, with last trains being an hour or so earlier.

I find it hard to believe that SWR have this much reliance on overtime.

I was thinking more woselt as that is what I thought the point was about and not just the times when staff decide on mass not to do overtime.

 

[Horizon22]

*Purely anecdotal. When Thameslink are on strike, the coffee shops, pubs and restaurants in St Albans are all busier than normal, as people who would have gone to London work at home, walk up to town for their coffees, and/or simply go out locally. On the last strike people were wueijg out the door of one coffee shop at 0730 in the morning! You never see that normally. People still spend the money, but in a different place. That’s why the damage done is very local, but not at a macro level.

It’s notable where I live as well when there’s regular engineering works & the line is shut - town centre is normally much busier than I usual compared to weekends where the main line to London is open.

As you say people make alternatives and spend their money differently. I have no doubt that shops / restaurants / pubs in Zone 1 are badly affected, for example.

 

[142blue]

I will give an anecdotal example of how this pay deal is not acceptable. If by some happenstance I was rostered every bank holiday and worked them I would get paid overtime. Under the proposed arrangements I would not. 4% uplift would be considerably less than what I had before. So in effect I would be accepting a pay cut. No thanks.

That's naughty that, if that's what's agreed then taking that away is not on.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm aiming to go from York/Northallerton to Edinburgh on the 11th May - any idea what effect the overtime ban will have?

For LNER - minimal. For TPE, I‘d expect a higher chance of cancellations on the day than normal (which are pretty low these days).

 

[Starmill]

which are pretty low these days

I think that is relative!

 

[Bald Rick]

I think that is relative!

Well its all relative, but TPE cancellations so far this month are 30% lower than the national average for all passenger operators, and better than (for example) Greater Anglia, c2c, SWR and London Overground.

 

[Krokodil]

Well its all relative, but TPE cancellations so far this month are 30% lower than the national average for all passenger operators, and better than (for example) Greater Anglia, c2c, SWR and London Overground.

Well they have slashed their timetable to a more achievable level so it would be worrying if they hadn't reduced their cancellations too. It's a bit rotten for those who remember when a frequent service used to be achieved with fewer staff than the present one.

 

[Bald Rick]

Well they have slashed their timetable to a more achievable level so it would be worrying if they hadn't reduced their cancellations too. It's a bit rotten for those who remember when a frequent service used to be achieved with fewer staff than the present one.

Jeez, all I was trying to do was help someone make a journey, and it turns into a whinge-fest!

 

[brad465]

Does anyone know how GWR's late night services have been affected by overtime bans before? I'm flying from Bristol Airport at 6am on Tuesday 7th, and as there are limited coach options on that route that have my luggage needs I'm planning to get one of the last trains from Taunton-Bristol on Monday 6th and then the 24h bus to the airport from there. If the last train(s) is cancelled, I'll probably need to leave earlier.

 

[Horizon22]

Does anyone know how GWR's late night services have been affected by overtime bans before? I'm flying from Bristol Airport at 6am on Tuesday 7th, and as there are limited coach options on that route that have my luggage needs I'm planning to get one of the last trains from Taunton-Bristol on Monday 6th and then the 24h bus to the airport from there. If the last train(s) is cancelled, I'll probably need to leave earlier.

Almost certainly last trains will not be running - after about 2000 it's pretty sparse.

 

[brad465]

Almost certainly last trains will not be running - after about 2000 it's pretty sparse.

Thanks for this, I've booked a dirt cheap hotel room in Bristol City Centre so I can travel by train earlier in the day, I'll just check out in the middle of the night.

 

[Sly Old Fox]

Almost certainly last trains will not be running - after about 2000 it's pretty sparse.

On a strike date yes but not an overtime ban day. Would expect most trains to be running as booked for GWR on that day.

 

[Horizon22]

On a strike date yes but not an overtime ban day. Would expect most trains to be running as booked for GWR on that day.

Ah yes, misread GWR’s date so yes should be OK on the 5th/6th.

 

[317 forever]

No strikes on Monday and Fridays is an odd move but I guess the aftermath of the strike means they will be disruption anyway,

Admittedly Monday is a Bank Holiday. I haven't come across many if any Bank Holiday strikes.

 

[dk1]

Not even ASOS week and LNER have a plethora of cancellations today due to shortage of traincrew.

 

[PLY2AYS]

Well technically ASLEF have had an offer on the table since 2022…

That’s wildly untrue. It was rejected near instantly. The transport secretary uses this line continually. Please don’t use his rhetoric considering he has forgotten the directions to attending negotiations for over a year now.

 

[Bantamzen]

That’s wildly untrue. It was rejected near instantly. The transport secretary uses this line continually. Please don’t use his rhetoric considering he has forgotten the directions to attending negotiations for over a year now.

As I understand it an offer was made in 2022, which was rejected by ASLEF members. RDG then revised the offer very slightly in 2023, which they asked to also be put to the members before any further negotiations would be held (this is actually not unusual in the public sector BTW). ASLEF decided they would reject it without taking a vote, and that is where things stand today. RDG / DfT won't budge on the vote caveat, and ASLEF won't budge on having a vote. Putting aside the whys and the wherefores of how its got to where it is, an offer still exists that is back-datable to 2022, yes?

Now it entirely possible that RDG / DfT knew that setting a vote caveat might be a sticking point for ASLEF given their rule that an executive decision cannot then be put to the membership, and so threw it in to paint ASLEF into a corner. In which case the union should have boxed a bit more clever. I remain convinced that having the members reject the 2023 revised offer would have given ASLEF the chance to broker a deal similar that got by RMT.

 

[TBSchenker]

ASLEF decided they would reject it without taking a vote, and that is where things stand today.

It's been mentioned numerous times that the ASLEF leadership only put forward offers for a vote that they can recommend. The members approve this method of operation, have consistently voted to continue industrial action as a result.

 

[Bantamzen]

It's been mentioned numerous times that the ASLEF leadership only put forward offers for a vote that they can recommend. The members approve this method of operation, have consistently voted to continue industrial action as a result.

I know, but as I mentioned it is not unusual for the government to ask that an offer to be put to the membership rather than executives making the decision. So both sides refuse to budge and the dispute rumbles on.

 

[northwichcat]

But that is about what it has cost the industry (which I am not doubting).

The article says UK economy. That would presumably include things like people not buying tickets for events due to not being able to get there, insurance claims for non-refundable hotel stays, the anticipated cost of a postponing business meeting delaying an important contract being finalised etc.

What it doesn't say is what would be the cost to the economy of not sorting out issues like Northern being unable to provide a proper Sunday service because Sunday's considered overtime and no-one wants to do it when it's New Year's Eve or when there's a football match between two North West sides.

 

[skyhigh]

I know, but as I mentioned it is not unusual for the government to ask that an offer to be put to the membership rather than executives making the decision. So both sides refuse to budge and the dispute rumbles on.

And as you've been told 100 times (and also said yourself) if the offer was put to the membership and inevitably rejected then there still won't be any meaningful movement from this government which is negotiating in bad faith. And it sets the precedent that all offers will go to the membership so it doesn't take a crystal ball to see the next move would be to modify the offer by a tiny amount and refuse any meetings until that is voted on, and on and on. All while ASLEF pays for each vote.

 

[Bantamzen]

And as you've been told 100 times (and also said yourself) if the offer was put to the membership and inevitably rejected then there still won't be any meaningful movement from this government which is negotiating in bad faith. And it sets the precedent that all offers will go to the membership so it doesn't take a crystal ball to see the next move would be to modify the offer by a tiny amount and refuse any meetings until that is voted on, and on and on. All while ASLEF pays for each vote.

Please see my previous post, its not a precedent. I don't want to end up going in circles but governments over the years have on occasions made an offer being put to the membership a caveat. I'm sorry that's just how they are. I know as do they that it would be rejected, but a membership vote is what they insist on before any further movement is made.

 

[800001]

Not even ASOS week and LNER have a plethora of cancellations today due to shortage of traincrew.

They have a RDW and overtime ban in place

 

[dk1]

They have a RDW and overtime ban in place

Yes of course. I don’t think LNER have been playing by the rules yet again.