At Northern the other day, we received notification that we will be balloted at end of JulyI think there's a chance it might. It's pretty clear that rail workers are Sunak's coal miners.
I suspect that is why we haven't seen any more strikes declared for a bit - they're waiting to see the outcome of the election (though I may of course just have jinxed it!)
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Avanti West Coast Cancellations
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Makes sense. Let the Government change if it's going to, and a month should be enough to see what the general attitude is to resolving the dispute. I guess that'll apply to all TOCs.
Hardly comparable as the coal industry was essentially in managed decline with regular closures & redundancies whereas with rail is primarily about more efficient ways of operating.
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That depends on what you mean by ‘significant’.
If you were to say that a refund of half the fare for the one way trip you are making is significant, then that usually applies if you are 30-60 minutes late at your destination.
For the last year, 0.4% of trains arriving at stations (all stations, not just destination) were 30 minutes or more late. Thats the national figure. Avanti’s will be rather worse! But Id be surprised if it was more than 4%.
I think long distance train services eg Avanti, LNER etc are more likely to be 30-60 minutes late than local suburban services, probably due to the higher track miles and duration of the service.
Its a good question. I can only go by my own experience travelling Glasgow/London approximately 3 or 4 times per month. I average around 75% of journeys getting some amount of delay repay.
Avanti seem to be getting slower on their automated messages about it as well. Was delayed +30 yesterday and no email yet!
Too scared to automate it like LNER where it’s instant processing! Probably because they will pay too much out.
Without seeing it all over the news like it used to be, it’s hard to get an idea of how they have improved (or worsened).
glasgowniteowl
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In the last 30 days roughly 30% of trains have either been 15+ minutes late or worse on avanti to Edinburgh, admittedly the main reasons in that period seem to have been weather/derailment related
Facing Back
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It is - or at least used to be - automated. I would frequently get a message saying I was due delay repay before the train arrived at my destination and the transaction posted to my card before my taxi got me home
Well, of course.
Avanti run about 1.5% of trains on the network, so their impact on national figures is almost negligible.
Importantly though there is no way to stockpile trains (as Maggie did with coal) nor a source of military-trained replacement staff (as per Reagan's response to the Air Traffic Control strike). So Sunak was thwarted in his plan to break the rail unions, and had to back down to RMT eventually.
You will be surprised then. The latest moving annual average for 30+ minute delays at Avanti was 5%. On top of 7.6% cancelled (the affected passengers in most cases will have been put back by at least half an hour). So somewhere around 10% of Avanti's passengers got at least half of their money back.
No wonder the railway's finances aren't recovering, large numbers of high-value passengers are legitimately travelling half-fare or for free because there aren't enough traincrew and the infrastructure is falling apart.
Thats at the trains’ destination, not at every station. Official T-30 is less than 4%.
id imagine that quite a few Avanti/ LNER/ etc passengers are now travelling beyond London on to services whose frequency has been slashed in order to cut costs. I havent had a WCML or ECML service for ages that has made my connection on to my hourly service from St Pancras- anything thats 15 mins or more late is defacto a 100% refund (110% on tickets bought through LNER). Strangely MML always seem to make the connection.
Sounds like youre unlucky, or I’m lucky.
I am consistently making planned* connections between Euston and St Pancras, both ways.
*Planned by me - typically 12-25 minutes between timetabled arrival at one and departure from the other. I don’t know what the official connection time is.
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pokemonsuper9
Established Member
I think it's 15 minutes for Euston station, 15 minutes for "Transfer" (or 5m for tube during most of the day) and another 15 at St Pancras, so at most 45 minutes, at least 35m.
Wrong, the 5% figure I used stated "all station stops". The "30 minutes late at destination" figure was 5.8%.
These are moving annual averages, up to 25/05/24. All published on Avanti's website.
The issue is that the minimum connection time Euston to St Pancras is 35 mins. My departure from St Pancras is at XX37 For whatevever reason the scheduled connection from Euston is frequently this minimum or plus a few minutes. I reckon for standard class coach on a pendolino to train on the domestic high speed platforms 20 mins doesnt really allow much contingency time. Its not the actual walking distance where you can easily better the time in the middle of the night its the conflicting pedestrian flows.
The scenarios I experience are:
Connecting Northern service to Preston/Crewe/Piccadilly cancelled
Avanti service cancelled.
LNWR trent valley service diverted via Northampton
Whenever the two track railway is in use 10 min standing at red signal for crossover to slows followed by further losses as we catch up the stopping train then the mandatory 5 mins wait outside Euston for the train to leave the platform we are about to arrive at.
The reality is that southbound the service is effectively free with 10% cashback, I can see it wouldnt be if your finally destination was a Thameslink service with trains every 10 mins but the fact is for a destination on the Kent Coast it effectively is.
ok fair enough. It’s not what the numbers I have say, but who am I to argue
Were you using annual or monthly figures? I used the Moving Annual Average to avoid seasonal variation.
This was my source:
Not that the difference between the two is significant anyway.
MAA. I Might need to go to Specsavers! (Again….)
@Bald Rick I await the next monthly release of statistics. The fortnight since the timetable change has been dire on the North Wales Coast:
(link shows delay and cancellation data for Avanti services between Chester and Holyhead since the timetable change. Of the six services, two have been cancelled more often than they have run)
(link shows delay and cancellation data for Avanti services between Chester and Holyhead since the timetable change. Of the six services, two have been cancelled more often than they have run)
glasgowniteowl
On Moderation
Another day another problem on north on wcml, avanti culling lots north of Preston, hopefully home via edinburgh soon
All sorted now - OLE issues.
First three trains at 30mph then if no issues it will be linespeed.
glasgowniteowl
On Moderation
Yeah minutes after my post all fine, didn't need to go via edinburgh in the end just quite a bit delayed overall
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