Back to the bad old days’: swingeing rail cuts set alarm bells ringing

[lammergeier]

ultimately the quickest and easiest way to save money is to reduce headcount, saving wages, national insurance and pension contributions.

Hence the recent voluntary severance scheme.

 

[squizzler]

But as the report shows this will likely be primarily in London & SE. However the stock may now be surplus to requirements and obviously be electrified will only be of benefit to other areas electrified if it is cascaded.

Peak hour service reductions in the London computer flows are effectively "cuts in name only" as far as I am concerned, and really falls under the normal day-to-day railway business of matching services to demand than an "end of days" event.

In reality, I don't think the public are ready to accept cuts to network coverage, if fact I feel that British love their rail services a lot more than some forum "know-it-alls" would have us believe. This includes investment. We only need to look at the building grassroots pushback against the so-called Integrated Rail Plan for NPR - and that was a diluted investment programme not a cut.

The pandemic has not changed the dynamics favouring rail: an ageing population who increasingly no longer hold car licences, desire to improve quality of environment, energy efficiency and carbon reduction. The industry and its supporters simply need to keep the faith and continue to preach the benefits of the network, and the case for continued investment.

To quote Ferdinand Foch in WW1 (I recall this used by Roger Ford in some article about something entirely different) - "My centre is giving way, my right is retreating, excellent situation, I am attacking." (Mon centre cède, ma droite recule, situation excellente, j'attaque).

 

[Bletchleyite]

In reality, I don't think the public are ready to accept cuts to network coverage

If you mean by that line closures, other than some fiddling round the edges I would agree that would be political suicide. In England most of the lines that could be closed and lifted would be subject to major campaigns. You could get shut of Berney Arms or the Gainsborough Central line, I guess, but that's tweaking round the edges and wouldn't save much. You'd need to take bigger lengths out, and an attempt on the S&C, say, would be an election-loser given how much of a campaign it raised in a much more pro-car era when it was last attempted.

The real basket cases are all in Wales and Scotland. Messing with those would be a sure-fire backing for independence. It'd be easier to close the WCML politically (not that that would happen).

 

[Mally66]

Have you considered changing at Crewe for the LNWR service to Euston? I don't know the cost from Manchester, but from Liverpool they are ~50% cheaper than Avanti off peak.

I use an app called TrainPal get some really good bargains on there, especially if you book singles !

 

[LowLevel]

In the mean time EMR are (slowly) putting Regional trains back in and increasing lengths on the Intercity route, whilst recruiting large numbers of drivers and guards and the trains are bursting.

I am fairly unconvinced that things are going to change a great deal there, given the May timetable got rid of a lot of the additional commuter services in favour of a more consistent train service.

LNER are also seemingly doing a good trade, both standard and first class seem busy whenever I see them.

Greater Anglia have also been quoted as bucking the trend.

I think there are going to be significant differences between areas in impact.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I can see the WCML being a big "target". There's still an Avanti Brum and a LNR Brum missing, but most of the peak extras have gone back in. They could come back out again for a more "Saturday like" timetable - though Saturdays at present have a Northampton (xx49) that weekdays don't, recognising that Saturdays are busier daytimes.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Is that necessarily true across the board? I was under the impression that some franchises have gone for fleet replacement before their current stock gets to end of life due to lower finance cost on newer trains. E.g. SWR are replacing 707s with 701s in part because the leasing costs are lower.

Yes but the problem is that SWR didn't need all those new 701s after all, and that is repeated over many TOCs.
The deals with the Roscos were also for extended franchise periods which now looks like the wrong thing to have done.
TOCs that went for new diesels to replace life-expired 14x/15x (eg Northern, TfW) had no choice but to stump up the higher leasing charges.
TPE went for the crazy three-fleet solution and now face paying to keep Mk5s in the sidings indefinitely.
Some TOCs had good reasons to buy a new fleet (eg Merseyrail) but still have to find the funds to pay for them out of reduced revenue.
The problem comes when the "low hanging fruit" of off-lease stock includes that for which there is no realistic alternative (ie most of the DMU fleet).

 

[JonathanH]

They could come back out again for a more "Saturday like" timetable - though Saturdays at present have a Northampton (xx49) that weekdays don't, recognising that Saturdays are busier daytimes.

The xx49 is going back in on weekdays as the through LNR train to Birmingham with the xx15 terminating at Northampton instead.

 

[squizzler]

If it were up to some people here the Serpell report would have been dusted off and fully implemented by the end of 2020... and it would have been blamed on the unions. The forum's not so enthusiastic 'enthusiasts' are quite something.

As a forum, we roar like lions when asked to wear face coverings, yet when they come for our trains we won't even squeak like mice, in fact we are keen to proclaim our acceptance of this before cuts have even become a thing. I hope wider society has not become quite so pathetic.

 

[Mally66]

I don't want this to become a discussion of the merits of face coverings, but I am interesting to see if their reintroduction will put off passengers (as indeed speculated in the guardian article). I think (also basing my assumption on trains used recently in the EU) that it will increase confidence amongst the travelling population, even amongst many who like to say they hate them. Would it be possible to capture any such sentiment from the passenger data, or are there too many variables?

I think most passengers learned quickly that if you were eating or drinking you could remove your mask without any repercussions. Bring on the Trolley service.

 

[Meerkat]

Yes but the problem is that SWR didn't need all those new 701s after all, and that is repeated over many TOCs.
The deals with the Roscos were also for extended franchise periods which now looks like the wrong thing to have done.
TOCs that went for new diesels to replace life-expired 14x/15x (eg Northern, TfW) had no choice but to stump up the higher leasing charges.
TPE went for the crazy three-fleet solution and now face paying to keep Mk5s in the sidings indefinitely.
Some TOCs had good reasons to buy a new fleet (eg Merseyrail) but still have to find the funds to pay for them out of reduced revenue.
The problem comes when the "low hanging fruit" of off-lease stock includes that for which there is no realistic alternative (ie most of the DMU fleet).

But theoretically the DfT could now get SWR to sublease those spare 701s or in some circumstances slightly remap TOCs so that companies with excess stock take over adjacent lines run by companies with old stock.
How many 701s do you think are spare - enough for the Coastway?

 

[Domeyhead]

Looking at prices for a return trip next weekend with my sons to visit my elderly father and bring him down to stay for a few days before Christmas. Avanti = £188, car = £55, door-to-door journey time comparable at around 4 hours (London outer suburbs to Manchester outer suburbs). Train is clearly more comfortable and relaxing, but can't ignore that sort of price differential. Fuel would have to be over £4/litre before the motoring charges start to bite

I often see car v train comparisons made using just the cost of fuel. London to Manchester and back is a round trip of 400 miles (perhaps in your case a little less, say 350). When factoring in the cost of wear and tear on tyres and engine, servicing, mileage depreciation and so on, the standard UK.Gov mileage recovery figures of 45ppm is approached. If we remove the fixed costs (insurance, tax etc) you still find a figure of around 35ppm is realistic. So your true car journey cost would be at least £122.50. I know it doesn't change the outcome but Avanti don't make you pay extra to service their trains!

 

[JonathanH]

Yes but the problem is that SWR didn't need all those new 701s after all, and that is repeated over many TOCs.
The deals with the Roscos were also for extended franchise periods which now looks like the wrong thing to have done.

It will be for the DfT to find somewhere else for them to run. Using the spare units and possibly spare 450s to replace Networkers at Southeastern might be a suitable outlet.

Somewhere there will be units on short leases which can just be released when the lease ends.

 

[hwl]

15% reduction in passenger journeys with 30% rolling stock reductions arriving soon....

Where is that info from?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It will be for the DfT to find somewhere else for them to run. Using the spare units and possibly spare 450s to replace Networkers at Southeastern might be a suitable outlet.
Somewhere there will be units on short leases which can just be released when the lease ends.

Well that would be GBR's job if it existed.
It also means overriding all sorts of commercial contracts and TOC policies, which is probably why setting up GBR is proving such a long-drawn-out process.
And the cost-reduction task, or at least having a plan, is urgent.

 

[Moonshot]

Well that would be GBR's job if it existed.
It also means overriding all sorts of commercial contracts and TOC policies, which is probably why setting up GBR is proving such a long-drawn-out process.
And the cost-reduction task, or at least having a plan, is urgent.

Indeed....no matter which way you look at it, revenue is down and costs are rising. It doesn't get much simpler than that. Action plan need now.

 

[JonathanH]

Well that would be GBR's job if it existed.
It also means overriding all sorts of commercial contracts and TOC policies, which is probably why setting up GBR is proving such a long-drawn-out process.
And the cost-reduction task, or at least having a plan, is urgent.

Surely there is someone at the DfT with a spreadsheet which summarises all of the lease end dates and who has a hit list of which fleets are going off lease and when. It doesn't need GBR to do that.

From what has been posted in this thread, if fleet X is due to go off lease in the middle of 2022 and fleet Y is on a longer lease but to a different TOC and can be used to replace fleet X a sublease will be organised of fleet Y to replace fleet X, saving the lease costs of fleet X. If fleet X is then cheaper to lease than fleet Y, fleet X may even be bought back (if it still exists) to replace fleet Y when the lease on fleet Y ends. Of course, the lease companies may well just send fleet X to the scrapyard, even if it is a young fleet, particularly if it expected that it will never be used again.

 

[mpthomson]

Undoubtedly people are going to work more from home in the future, but the figures speak for themselves.

80% of City workers were back at their desks last week despite Omicron

More London staff were at their desks last week than at any point during the pandemic as the festive party season kicked off (file photo of the City).

www.dailymail.co.uk

As it happens they don't. That's a very selective sample done on a Tuesday and Thursday. Many people who do three days a week in the office and two from home do Tues-Thurs in the office. The average office attendance during the week will be significantly lower than the 80% claimed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As it happens they don't. That's a very selective sample done on a Tuesday and Thursday. Many people who do three days a week in the office and two from home do Tues-Thurs in the office. The average office attendance during the week will be significantly lower than the 80% claimed.

The one day that might as well be Sunday is Friday. That's why binning Friday ticket restrictions makes so much sense.

The rest of it would be more mixed up. If doing three, Tues-Thurs might well be popular. But for two there are arguments for all the various options other than maybe Mon-Tues which would be unpopular. My preference for two is Monday and Wednesday, and I think for three I'd probably go either Mon, Tues, Thurs or Mon, Wed, Thurs. To me it's all about lack of sleep from an early start for a commute. Monday I'm well-slept after the weekend so the early start isn't painful, and two consecutive days are less enjoyable than leaving a gap.

 

[Dave W]

I go in to Westminster 1-2 days a week and have been throughout the course of the pandemic - my experience is that Mondays and Fridays have a much quieter rush hour. I suspect people like the neatness of a three day office week being Tues-Thurs, with Monday and Friday "off". Obviously anecdotal but I think the point stands... FWIW, again purely in my experience, the traditional peak of 7-8:30 almost completely disappeared around this time last year - but that's come back now. I've been on several trains wedged just like the "old days".

(There are a few KPIs one can use to assess how busy it is in Westminster, the most useful of which is how busy the local hostelries are after 5:30. At Christmas you'd expect them to be heaving - they're getting there, but nothing like previously)

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not for the pandemic, but my observation of the south WCML before it was that Mondays were actually quite busy. I suspect, though, that might be because you're adding in "weekly commuters" who travel down on a Monday and usually back on a Thursday with Friday from home, and may even not be headed for London but rather to connect onto the ECML and GWML (primarily) to other destinations.

Friday mornings might as well be Sundays, with a full peak timetable operating with trains at something like 50% capacity, some of them even lower. I've had single figures in a coach on a Friday on certain trains. Arguably Fridays could operate a Saturday timetable even pre-pandemic. The shift to partial home working was already progressing, the pandemic just sped it up.

 

[Xavi]

Where is that info from?

ORR data with forecasting model similar to the spreadsheets in DfT / Treasury. Worse scenarios will be modelled too, but this is probably the easiest to justify (50% journey drop in seasons and 15% overall).

 

[Domeyhead]

Hence the recent voluntary severance scheme.

Voluntary severance schemes are a disaster for every business that has undertaken them, as all the most highly rated, able and mobile staff head gleefully for the exit and another job with a big cheque in their pocket and pension top ups to boot. WHen the dust settles and the disgruntled awkward ageing time servers are left behind the truth dawns too late. The Rail Unions wouldn't have it any other way and would strike at the mention of compulsory redundancies. Still in the most recent case, Network Rail's loss will be the Contractor's and consultancy's gain (many of them overseas civil engineering competitors which adds a brain drain into to this awful mix).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Voluntary severance schemes are a disaster for every business that has undertaken them, as all the most highly rated, able and mobile staff head gleefully for the exit and another job with a big cheque in their pocket and pension top ups to boot. WHen the dust settles and the disgruntled awkward ageing time servers are left behind the truth dawns too late. The Rail Unions wouldn't have it any other way and would strike at the mention of compulsory redundancies. Still in the most recent case, Network Rail's loss will be the Contractor's and consultancy's gain (many of them overseas civil engineering competitors which adds a brain drain into to this awful mix).

Yes and no. When you have large numbers of people doing the exact same job, it's likely to help get the ones who hate it out, and thus improve customer service.

 

[Wolfie]

As it happens they don't. That's a very selective sample done on a Tuesday and Thursday. Many people who do three days a week in the office and two from home do Tues-Thurs in the office. The average office attendance during the week will be significantly lower than the 80% claimed.

Funny that you say that but we were told, before plans for back to the office were put on hold because of Omicron, that we had to be in two days a week. We were also told point blank that everyone wishing to go in during Tue-Thu would be unacceptable. Friends have heard the same from their employers. If management are looking to reduce desk space there is no way that they will let everyone go in on the same days.

 

[RailWonderer]

I mean that just isn't true. The NHS charges non UK citizens for treatment, charges for parking in most hospitals etc etc. Libraries often charge for printing and for services over and above just lending books (some lend music, video games etc etc), some schools charge for after school clubs / breakfast clubs etc (or outright just ask parents for contributions). Sure the others don't make as much money as a percentage of their operating costs as the railway does, but to outright say they can't make money is just not the case. So on that basis I'd say the railways actually do a pretty damn good job at raising money towards their operating costs compared to a lot of other public services!

True, but those charges are just 'peripheral' costs, food, parking etc. The bread and butter service, health, edication provision, reading of books - cannot be charged.

I can see the WCML being a big "target". There's still an Avanti Brum and a LNR Brum missing, but most of the peak extras have gone back in. They could come back out again for a more "Saturday like" timetable - though Saturdays at present have a Northampton (xx49) that weekdays don't, recognising that Saturdays are busier daytimes.

The Manchester badly needs its 3rd tph restored as well.

 

[JamesT]

Voluntary severance schemes are a disaster for every business that has undertaken them, as all the most highly rated, able and mobile staff head gleefully for the exit and another job with a big cheque in their pocket and pension top ups to boot. WHen the dust settles and the disgruntled awkward ageing time servers are left behind the truth dawns too late. The Rail Unions wouldn't have it any other way and would strike at the mention of compulsory redundancies. Still in the most recent case, Network Rail's loss will be the Contractor's and consultancy's gain (many of them overseas civil engineering competitors which adds a brain drain into to this awful mix).

I left before getting involved in a voluntary redundancy scheme at a previous employer. But I'm fairly sure that time the employer could refuse redundancy if they wanted to hold onto someone.

 

[Wolfie]

Voluntary severance schemes are a disaster for every business that has undertaken them, as all the most highly rated, able and mobile staff head gleefully for the exit and another job with a big cheque in their pocket and pension top ups to boot. WHen the dust settles and the disgruntled awkward ageing time servers are left behind the truth dawns too late. The Rail Unions wouldn't have it any other way and would strike at the mention of compulsory redundancies. Still in the most recent case, Network Rail's loss will be the Contractor's and consultancy's gain (many of them overseas civil engineering competitors which adds a brain drain into to this awful mix).

The whole point about properly run voluntary severance schemes is that the business reserves the right to decide which applications it accepts. The star performers you describe should properly be rejected.

 

[Domeyhead]

I left before getting involved in a voluntary redundancy scheme at a previous employer. But I'm fairly sure that time the employer could refuse redundancy if they wanted to hold onto someone.

Yes that's true, though you often turn a highly skilled, motivated ambitious employee into a resentful employee who no longer wants to work for you, and then leaves within a year anyway to work for one of the companies that offered him/her a position conditional upon taking redundancy. I have seen what voluntary schemes do outside the rail industry, but respected commentators like Nigel Harris, Alan Williams and Ian Walmsley are saying exactly the same thing regarding Network Rail.

 

[Wolfie]

I left before getting involved in a voluntary redundancy scheme at a previous employer. But I'm fairly sure that time the employer could refuse redundancy if they wanted to hold onto someone.

Exactly.