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Building HS2 to Euston and Crewe could pay for itself, analysis finds
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
They are. And uncoincidentally there are lots of short forms at the moment. Presumably this is DaFT mandated cost cutting? Added to the horrorshow of Euston, WMT is not a nice place at the moment.
The 5s will mostly run in pairs to Chester with 5 going forward to Holyhead. The 7s will run on quieter, slower services and are specifically that length to serve Liverpool South Parkway, also they have roughly the same number of Standard seats as a 9 car 390.
renegademaster
Established Member
They will be running as double units for most of their length, like the voyagers do now
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
They won't unless 2B is built, other than on the captive Birmingham service.
Class15
Established Member
Why would 805s need HS2 phase 2B to be constructed to run in pairs? Shouldn’t make a difference.
Tetchytyke
Veteran Member
I presume it is, the 350/2s are on a notoriously expensive lease deal.
The short-forming is precisely my point though. When everything out of Euston is 12-car and rammed then HS2 can tell me more about needing more capacity. Instead there is now only one- ONE- 12-car in the morning peak on the inner WCML. There are no 12s in the evening peak. And that’s timetabled, how many 8s are running as 4s?
Not using the capacity we have doesn’t justify the cost of HS2.
Instead we have LNR/WMT running 3-carriage trains out of Euston.
A few at most at the moment - and up to 9 by Dec - but ultimately ones freed up from loss of 350 diagrams in the West Midlands region. Which are directly replaced by 730/0s as always intended.
So the 350/2 going off lease currently do have planned and intended replacement - still contrary to your orginal point...
Would it be feasible to run 2 * 200m from Euston and drop one of them at Stoke (if no 2A) or Crewe (if 2A)? The first one would run non stop to M/c the second would stop a couple of times on the way. No 400m platforms needed, if the first one is restricted to London to M/c passengers.
Precisely. There are plenty of 730/0s ready to enter service to replace both the 323s (already done) and the 350s on both Wolves-Walsall and Chase line services. Any short forming of 350s on the Trent or WCML South are not related to 350/2 units that's have gone off lease.
And that's not even considering the 730/2 that will enter service at some point in 2025. Which are longer and have more seating!
BBC saying govt has confirmed HS2 extension to Crewe and Manchester won’t be reinstated.
www.bbc.co.uk
HS2: Ministers to oversee build as costs 'spiral'
The transport secretary also commissions a new independent review of the high-speed rail project.
www.bbc.co.uk
Confirmed the 'current plans' won't be happening. Come January there seems likely a 'new plan' will be being discussedBBC saying govt has confirmed HS2 extension to Crewe and Manchester won’t be reinstated.
HS2: Ministers to oversee build as costs 'spiral'
The transport secretary also commissions a new independent review of the high-speed rail project.
The precise phrasing from the official press release is:
www.gov.uk
Transport Secretary announces urgent action to get a grip on spiralling HS2 costs
Today's announcement marks the latest step in the Transport Secretary's mission to overhaul the railways, ensuring infrastructure works for the whole country.
matacaster
On Moderation
Sorry second paragraph should have said estimates should NOT require years to produce.
Fazaar1889
Member
Do they not understand the dire state of our network?
matacaster
On Moderation
So, they are now proposing to get HS2 from Birmingham to Euston, but have yet to determine the scope 6, 10 or 11 platforms nor cost, who's funding it, nor timescale. I can't see trains running on even this truncated vision in less than 12 years (although I will defer to others with far greater knowledge). Other than as a commuter route, which I have always said it would be, what significant benefit is there to WCML capacity?The precise phrasing from the official press release is:
Transport Secretary announces urgent action to get a grip on spiralling HS2 costs
Today's announcement marks the latest step in the Transport Secretary's mission to overhaul the railways, ensuring infrastructure works for the whole country.
Without a clear commitment with proper funding and timescales to northern portions to Manchester (and Leeds ideally), HS2 looks like a real turkey. The suggested plan by H M govt appears to be kicking the north (and Andy Burnham) into the very long grass, whilst allowing Starmer and Khan to say we got HS2 to Euston.
Tetchytyke
Veteran Member
I haven't forgotten it. HS2's own modelling suggests that only 1% of people who would have flown will instead travel by HS2 and only 4% of people who would have driven will instead travel by HS2.
The marginal (in the grand scheme of things) time gains from HS2 simply won't be enough to offset the primary reasons why people drive: cost and convenience.
And if you think Avanti rail fares are high now, wait until they have to go up to pay for the £150bn cost of HS2. When HS1 was built the fares on SouthEastern rose by 3% per annum more than everyone else's to pay for it. And HS1 only cost £5bn.
A "planned and intended replacement".
Thank you for agreeing with me. The 350/2s are going off lease without a replacement.
Nicholas Lewis
On Moderation
Reeves just confirmed in the budget that tunnelling to Euston will be funded
Note: Budget statement not yet released to web
Note: Budget statement not yet released to web
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
But not the station, it seems, with some wibble about private investment.
Relevant extracts from the budget document (page 64)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-budget-2024
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-budget-2024
GRALISTAIR
Established Member
Reasonably positive news about Euston but I must have missed any mention of restarting works north of Birmingham which were scrapped by Sunak.
As expected as they need to get the TBMs out of the way at OOC so might as well keeping going and the cost of tunnelling isn't that large overall.
The spending review is in progress so there will be very little detail on most spending changes till early next year.
Getting the Euston approaches sorted also makes the station works easier.
CSR is in progress.
They wanted to avoid headlines of HS2 funded by freezing pensioners.
The government aren't happy with several of the contractors doing as expected and maximising costs with cost plus contracts. Hence nothing till the wider reviews on avoiding a repetition of this (and other cost management in infrastructure) are complete.
brad465
Established Member
Does CSR mean "Case Study review" (correct me if wrong)?
Comprehensive Spending Review. My understanding is that the government will present a 10 year infrastructure plan in the Spring, detailing the road-map of UK infrastructure investment planned over the next 10 years, and this should give us some clarity on what will happen to Phase 2 and NPR. It will also cover things such as roads and power plants.
HSTEd
Veteran Member
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Well, given how badly HS2 has gone, I'm not sure that ressuscitating the scheme is a good way to spend money to fix the railway network.
We have a lot of problems and not enough money to solve all of them as it stands.
Sonik
Member
Spot on, its all about politics and managing impressions IMO (more so than finding funding).
Clearly it would be bonkers to spend the money building into Euston, just for a line to Birmingham.
David Higgins (who should know) said the main issue is renewing safeguarding beyond next year, otherwise it will lapse. That (by itself) is not particularly controversial, easy for government to push through parliament with their large majority, and leaves the door open for a grand announcement that the phase 2 project has been 'turned around', in the run up to the next election. No land has been sold yet.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Not directly addressed in her speech, but the overall money allocated for rail and transport generally (current and capital) will now be with Louise Haigh to allocate.
It's often the case that the Chancellor only mentions big ticket items (NPR, EWR and the Euston tunnelling).
It's left to the SoS to announce what else they are funding.
That often comes just before the Christmas break, before the next parliament recess, and will apply from next April.
I thought it rather petty that finishing off Vic-Stalybridge and York-Church Fenton got a mention when they are practically complete, were funded by the previous lot, and will make hardly a jot of difference on the ground until the wiring extends further towards Leeds.
It's often the case that the Chancellor only mentions big ticket items (NPR, EWR and the Euston tunnelling).
It's left to the SoS to announce what else they are funding.
That often comes just before the Christmas break, before the next parliament recess, and will apply from next April.
I thought it rather petty that finishing off Vic-Stalybridge and York-Church Fenton got a mention when they are practically complete, were funded by the previous lot, and will make hardly a jot of difference on the ground until the wiring extends further towards Leeds.
Renewing Safeguarding doesn’t need parliamentary approval. It is issued by the Secretary of State.
Nicholas Lewis
On Moderation
Entirely sensible course of action but thats 1-2B more on the DfT capital exp account that I suspect wasn't in the forecast so now pushes MML next stage back a few years potentially.
HS2 north of Birmingham had parliamentary (and royal) approval but that didn't stop the former PM unilaterally scrapping it.
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