Chiltern strike timetables

[Watershed]

That's not entirely fair. In terms of punctuality of trains actually run, Chiltern's Moving Annual Average as at the end of Period 9 (10th December 2022) put them 8th out of 24 operators (which includes the Open Access Operators, concessions such as London Overground and Merseyrail, Caledonian Sleeper, ScotRail, and TfW Rail) when it comes to T-3 (no more than 3 minutes late at every scheduled station stop), T-5 (no more than 5 minutes late) and T-10 (no more than 10 minutes late).

If you just count the former DfT franchised operators, they come third on all three counts (behind c2c and Greater Anglia.) Least punctual on all three counts is Avanti, with a T-3 MAA of just 64% (compared to 93.9% for Merseyrail, the top performer on all three counts.)

In terms of cancellations, again measured against the advertised timetable, Chiltern's MAA at the end of Period 9 puts them 2nd (at 1.84%) behind c2c (at 1.77%), with Avanti right at the bottom on 8.36%.

That said, I would agree that the service provision since Covid hit has been rubbish, with extended journey times and reduced frequencies and train lengths, doubly so during this most recent bout of industrial action. It remains to be seen what happens when what passes for normality returns next month, and at the May timetable change.

T-3/5/10 is one thing, and the good figures there show that it's a relatively punctual TOC. Similarly, the low cancellation statistics show that it's an operator that fairly reliably delivers the timetable it promises.

But none of that is a measurement of how useful the timetable is. It doesn't in any way reflect the fact that major towns such as Warwick are being essentially cut off from the rail network for three weeks. Other places are also badly affected.

Unfortunately, reliability and punctuality is useless if there's no service to speak of.

 

[12LDA28C]

T-3/5/10 is one thing, and the good figures there show that it's a relatively punctual TOC. Similarly, the low cancellation statistics show that it's an operator that fairly reliably delivers the timetable it promises.

But none of that is a measurement of how useful the timetable is. It doesn't in any way reflect the fact that major towns such as Warwick are being essentially cut off from the rail network for three weeks. Other places are also badly affected.

Unfortunately, reliability and punctuality is useless if there's no service to speak of.

The reasoning for not running trains north of Banbury during the current dispute has been discussed at length. Clearly the overtime ban has highlighted a general shortage of maintenance staff at some depots which will need to be addressed, if the DfT will allow recruitment to take place of course.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

The reasoning for not running trains north of Banbury during the current dispute has been discussed at length. Clearly the overtime ban has highlighted a general shortage of maintenance staff at some depots which will need to be addressed, if the DfT will allow recruitment to take place of course.

Or of course this could be the permanent way forward with no service north of Banbury! Would allow the withdrawal of the loco hauled sets and a reduction in use of 165s:

 

[Watershed]

Or of course this could be the permanent way forward with no service north of Banbury! Would allow the withdrawal of the loco hauled sets and a reduction in use of 165s:

Plus the closure of Birmingham and Stourbridge depots. However, as much as the DfT might be in a mood for cost-cutting, I don't think that it would be tenable to permanently reduce Warwick etc. to a 'Parliamentary' service (as provided by WMT). It's a marginal constituency after all!

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Plus the closure of Birmingham and Stourbridge depots. However, as much as the DfT might be in a mood for cost-cutting, I don't think that it would be tenable to permanently reduce Warwick etc. to a 'Parliamentary' service (as provided by WMT). It's a marginal constituency after all!

Presumably the solution for that could be an hourly Leamington to Birmingham semi-fast service.

 

[class68fan]

Or of course this could be the permanent way forward with no service north of Banbury! Would allow the withdrawal of the loco hauled sets and a reduction in use of 165s:

Plus the closure of Birmingham and Stourbridge depots. However, as much as the DfT might be in a mood for cost-cutting, I don't think that it would be tenable to permanently reduce Warwick etc. to a 'Parliamentary' service (as provided by WMT). It's a marginal constituency after all!

Presumably the solution for that could be an hourly Leamington to Birmingham semi-fast service.

Wrek the positive that piratisation and expansion that have happen with Chiltern.

Leamington had not many trains to London just the odd Padington cross county. Warwick Solihull Dorrige had none.

Poor Adrian, he masterminded the Ciltern Mainline service, look at it going down toilet.

 

[12LDA28C]

Or of course this could be the permanent way forward with no service north of Banbury! Would allow the withdrawal of the loco hauled sets and a reduction in use of 165s:

No, that won't be happening. Loco-hauled sets are staying until at least May 2024.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Wrek the positive that piratisation and expansion that have happen with Chiltern.

Leamington had not many trains to London just the odd Padington cross county. Warwick Solihull Dorrige had none.

Poor Adrian, he masterminded the Ciltern Mainline service, look at it going down toilet.

I’m not saying it’s the right thing by any means! There’s some horrific ‘options’ out there at the moment.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2022 ==

No, that won't be happening. Loco-hauled sets are staying until at least May 2024.

There’s a difference between staying on lease and being used… Operators are expecting decisions from the DfT re budgets during January.

 

[philosopher]

Presumably the solution for that could be an hourly Leamington to Birmingham semi-fast service.

I think a complete withdrawal is unlikely. In Solihull, Leamington, Warwick and Dorridge such a move would go down like a lead balloon and it could end being a major issue in the affected constituencies in the next general election. These are all wealthy constituencies who would kick up quite a fuzz if they lose their direct service to London, which opposition parties, particularly the Lib Dems who are quite skilled at using local issues to their advantage would be keen to exploit.

Therefore I think it is more likely the service will be reduced to hourly, perhaps with the Leamington to Birmingham service going as well as this would be more politically tenable.

 

[12LDA28C]

I’m not saying it’s the right thing by any means! There’s some horrific ‘options’ out there at the moment.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2022 ==



There’s a difference between staying on lease and being used… Operators are expecting decisions from the DfT re budgets during January.

Ok well unless you know any better, Chiltern certainly have no plans to curtail operations in the near future and have certainly heard nothing from the DfT to this effect.

There are certainly some contributors to this forum with rather overactive imaginations.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2022 ==

I think a complete withdrawal is unlikely. In Solihull, Leamington, Warwick and Dorridge such a move would go down like a lead balloon and it could end being a major issue in the affected constituencies in the next general election. These are all wealthy constituencies who would kick up quite a fuzz if they lose their direct service to London, which opposition parties, particularly the Lib Dems who are quite skilled at using local issues to their advantage would be keen to exploit.

Therefore I think it is more likely the service will be reduced to hourly, perhaps with the Leamington to Birmingham service going as well as this would be more politically tenable.

Why would there be any change to the current (pre-strike) service?

 

[JonathanH]

I think a complete withdrawal is unlikely. In Solihull, Leamington, Warwick and Dorridge such a move would go down like a lead balloon and it could end being a major issue in the affected constituencies in the next general election. These are all wealthy constituencies who would kick up quite a fuzz if they lose their direct service to London, which opposition parties, particularly the Lib Dems who are quite skilled at using local issues to their advantage would be keen to exploit.

The railways are just not a significant electoral issue in the way you suggest. There are multiple issues on which people vote. There might be some political capital, but realistically, budgets will be tight whatever.

 

[sammyg901]

Amusing today that the Aylesbury-Amersham RRBs ended up being every 30 mins with a late finish - the most frequent and latest service the intermediate stations has seen/will see for quite some time!

 

[Mikey C]

As explained earlier, Class 165 parts are increasingly hard to obtain. The only way to get a unit back out in traffic is often to rob the part off another unit. Not sure there's too much that Chiltern can do about that.

But why?

You don't hear stories about spare parts for the older Sprinters being hard to get, it's not a tiny microfleet and the original manufacturer still exists (after several takeovers)

 

[JonathanH]

But why?

You don't hear stories about spare parts for the older Sprinters being hard to get, it's not a tiny microfleet and the original manufacturer still exists (after several takeovers)

There are suggestions that it is down to the units having outdated electronics, and a lack of interest from the engine manufacturers who would really prefer the railway to buy its new product rather than supporting its old one.

Mechanical parts are easier to source than outdated electronic parts - see https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/gwr-class-165-166-turbo-diagrams.157030/page-57#post-5991833

 

[david1212]

This isn't helped by the fact that several 165s have now been designated 'spares and repairs' units, limiting the fleet. Chiltern do seem to have a serious maintenance issue, outside this whole Christmas period meltdown, several 168s and 165s parked at Aylesbury haven't been used in months and are gathering severe corrosion. ...

As explained earlier, Class 165 parts are increasingly hard to obtain. The only way to get a unit back out in traffic is often to rob the part off another unit. Not sure there's too much that Chiltern can do about that.

Do GWR also have Class 165/6 sets out of use plus one or more sets designated as ' Christmas Trees ' due to lack of parts?

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Do GWR also have Class 165/6 sets out of use plus one or more sets designated as ' Christmas Trees ' due to lack of parts?

Yes they have sets out of traffic awaiting parts, the current high number of short forms on the West Regional services and more recently cancellations on LTV services are down to this. There are many posts about the issues on the GWR West fleets.

Like previously explained 158s and 16x have a number of obsolete electrical systems which are challenging to get parts for. Class 91s used to struggle with the same problem until a number were stripped to yield spare parts.

 

[LordFlashheart]

Amusing today that the Aylesbury-Amersham RRBs ended up being every 30 mins with a late finish - the most frequent and latest service the intermediate stations has seen/will see for quite some time!

A better than normal service! Presumably because someone else, HS2, were paying for it as it is their works at Wendover?

 

[Vanmanyo]

There are certainly some contributors to this forum with rather overactive imaginations

I agree, having lived in the areas mentioned above, Chiltern wouldn't remove the Birmingham to London services because its their main route. It would force more people onto the WCML (and hs2 if that ever opens) and also would be terrible for commuters and tourists. I think this whole RMT overtime ban is hopefully a one off thing. Chiltern arent suspending services for the sake of it because it's fun. They clearly have staffing issues that need to be resolved. Still I'm far from happy that at the moment I don't get a direct London service.

 

[sammyg901]

A slight tweak to the plans this time around with some of the previously ECS moves out of Aylesbury running in service. So a very rare chance to take direct services from Aylesbury to Oxford and Banbury !

 

[12LDA28C]

A slight tweak to the plans this time around with some of the previously ECS moves out of Aylesbury running in service. So a very rare chance to take direct services from Aylesbury to Oxford and Banbury !

Not that rare - it happens reasonably frequently when there is an issue on the 'western' anywhere between Neasden & Princes Risborough and trains are diverted via the Met, reversing (and calling at) Aylesbury.

 

[sammyg901]

Rare to be scheduled in advance then!

Last time I did it was during the Gerrards Cross tunnel collapse, I did notice a couple went that way during some recent disruption

 

[LordFlashheart]

Interesting to see that the Sat 18th timetable has 3 southbound services from Aylesbury running non-stop from Great Missenden to Marylebone. Not had that for a few years now.

There are corresponding fast workings Northbound in the afternoon

 

[sammyg901]

The whole day seems to be "fast" from Amersham if not Great Missenden as you say. Presumably planning short train lengths so want to leave the TfL stations for the Met line to handle

 

[Vanmanyo]

The whole day seems to be "fast" from Amersham if not Great Missenden as you say. Presumably planning short train lengths so want to leave the TfL stations for the Met line to handle

That seems reasonable. Chiltern will have massive strain on its fleet from May, will be interesting to see how they use their fleet and how bad the overcrowding will be...

 

[12LDA28C]

That seems reasonable. Chiltern will have massive strain on its fleet from May, will be interesting to see how they use their fleet and how bad the overcrowding will be...

Chiltern already has a massive strain on its fleet. Why will it become worse in May?

 

[Vanmanyo]

Chiltern already has a massive strain on its fleet. Why will it become worse in May?

You are correct, although they are still managing to get out 4/5/6 car services to Birmingham and Oxford. From May the timetable increase to 2tph MYB-BMO and further increases will mean the strain will become worse. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot more 165s on London - Birmingham like they did pre-covid

 

[12LDA28C]

You are correct, although they are still managing to get out 4/5/6 car services to Birmingham and Oxford. From May the timetable increase to 2tph MYB-BMO and further increases will mean the strain will become worse. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot more 165s on London - Birmingham like they did pre-covid

Any increase in service provision will be accounted for by a reduction in frequencies elsewhere. I believe the Met line will reduce to an hourly service during off-peak hours which should free up some stock for use on other routes.

 

[Vanmanyo]

Any increase in service provision will be accounted for by a reduction in frequencies elsewhere. I believe the Met line will reduce to an hourly service during off-peak hours which should free up some stock for use on other routes.

Won't free up lots though, maybe 1 165 and 1 168 an hour. I still think the May timetable will be worse in terms of overcrowding, and worse for the removal of Kidderminster services (if RTT is correct).

 

[12LDA28C]

Won't free up lots though, maybe 1 165 and 1 168 an hour. I still think the May timetable will be worse in terms of overcrowding, and worse for the removal of Kidderminster services (if RTT is correct).

Only worse for passengers travelling west of Stourbridge as they will have to change and yes, RTT is correct.

 

[Vanmanyo]

Only worse for passengers travelling west of Stourbridge as they will have to change and yes, RTT is correct.

Also it's now only 1tpd from Stourbridge to London, which I don't think is operated by a 68 according to pathing. I'm not sure how many 68 services are pathed now