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China vs Taiwan and other potential invasions/conflicts of concern (previously included Russia & Ukraine)

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kylemore

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Two wrongs don't make a right. I didn't, and don't, agree with the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and interfence in Libya, but these were all dictatorships. I suppose I can see some logic in Russia occupying Donetsk/ Luhansk, Russian speaking areas which have been neglected, but still don't think this is the right way to go about things.
I was being a bit flippant but you're right two wrongs don't make a right.

The flippancy is perhaps a reaction to the prevailing opinion on this thread, which is, generally speaking, that the "West" and the Ukrainians can do no wrong and the Russians can do no right.

I believe that it is at least a useful intellectual exercise to try and see things from both sides, although with the state of the "leadership in the "West" I admit that I sometimes have difficulty doing that myself! As for the "Democracy" versus "Authoritarianism" thing I have reached a stage where I regard "Western Democracy" as largely illusory, in any case the internal arrangements in Russia are a matter for the Russian people, if they want to change them enough they will do so - they've never been shy in the past!

Let us hope the Macron brokered meeting pulls everybody back from the brink - I suppose the biggest difference I have with most on here is that I believe that that is what the Russian leadership would prefer also. Mind you they will not be pushed about as before and appear to be in a position to assert themselves more than previously.
 
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AlterEgo

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Hopefully the well trodden path of brinkmanship leading to a dose of realpolitik will dial down the tensions, and also blunt the propaganda war.
I regret not having a good understanding of Russian domestic politics, but I would love to know if Putin really wants to risk Russian mother's sons over this. I am tending towards the idea this is brinkmanship, but it is very difficult to be certain.
 

adc82140

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I regret not having a good understanding of Russian domestic politics, but I would love to know if Putin really wants to risk Russian mother's sons over this. I am tending towards the idea this is brinkmanship, but it is very difficult to be certain.
I think that a lot of Western pundits make the mistake of assuming Putin thinks like a Western leader. He certainly doesn't, and therefore it's near impossible to second guess what he will do. Kremlinology is a science I can't even begin to understand.
 

oldman

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As for the "Democracy" versus "Authoritarianism" thing I have reached a stage where I regard "Western Democracy" as largely illusory
I don't think the self-serving plague on both your houses argument stacks up for a second but I suspect you can express it more freely here than there.
the internal arrangements in Russia are a matter for the Russian people, if they want to change them enough they will do so - they've never been shy in the past!
That does not mean we may not comment on them or criticise them. The only time they changed their rulers was February 1917 but power was quickly usurped by the Bolsheviks. Russian rulers have never been shy about murdering their opponents, from the Tsars through Lenin to Putin.
 

DynamicSpirit

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The flippancy is perhaps a reaction to the prevailing opinion on this thread, which is, generally speaking, that the "West" and the Ukrainians can do no wrong and the Russians can do no right.

I don't think that's fair. It's not that the Ukrainians and the West can do no wrong - clearly the West has done bad things in the past and will probably continue to do so. But on this particular issue, it is very obviously Russia that is threatening Ukraine, and not the other way round.

I believe that it is at least a useful intellectual exercise to try and see things from both sides, although with the state of the "leadership in the "West" I admit that I sometimes have difficulty doing that myself! As for the "Democracy" versus "Authoritarianism" thing I have reached a stage where I regard "Western Democracy" as largely illusory, in any case the internal arrangements in Russia are a matter for the Russian people, if they want to change them enough they will do so - they've never been shy in the past!

I would say that's naive and wrong. Western Democracy is, on the whole, very functional. Western nations regularly get rid of their various Governments through the ballot box, and we have a free media that isn't perfect but is by and large able to tell us what is going on in the World. Saying of the Russian Government, "If they want to change them enough they will do so" is particularly wrong. Under Putin, Russian elections have become completely rigged, so the Russian people have no chance of getting rid of Putin, no matter how much they might want to. And as an extra safeguard opposition leaders who might become popular enough to challenge Putin routinely find themselves jailed too. It is in Russia where democracy is illusory, not the West.

I totally understand and agree that it's good to try to see things from both sides. But you shouldn't let that become a justification for defending stuff that is clearly wrong.

Let us hope the Macron brokered meeting pulls everybody back from the brink - I suppose the biggest difference I have with most on here is that I believe that that is what the Russian leadership would prefer also. Mind you they will not be pushed about as before and appear to be in a position to assert themselves more than previously.

How on Earth do you think Russia and Putin were being pushed about? Do you think that maybe Russia poisoning people on UK soil was an example of Russia being 'pushed about'? Or maybe Russia annexing Crimea? Was that an example of Russia being 'pushed about'? Or how about the regularity with which Russia regularly flies military aircraft up to UK airspace? Or the way Russia supported/incited insurrections in Eastern Ukraine? Or all the Russian lead efforts to secretly interfere in the 2016 US election? Or the way Russia has clearly sought to weaponize its gas supplies to Europe? Or the regular cyber-attacks on Western countries that appear to originate from Russia?

As far as I can see, Russia really isn't being pushed about in any significant way. If anything, it's the other way round.
 

birchesgreen

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As far as I can see, Russia really isn't being pushed about in any significant way. If anything, it's the other way round.
Well NATO military bases around it's borders could be seen in this way (and the Russians indeed do). If there were Russian bases in Ireland, Norway, Iceland and the Continent facing us we probably wouldn't be very happy about it.
 

GWRtom

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Russian media just came out with this claim.

"BREAKING: Russian Military destroyed two Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicles, which crossed the Russian border from Ukraine for the emergency evacuation of a Ukrainian sabotage group - RIA"

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1495742397187338248
https://ria.ru/20220221/granitsa-1774091650.html (Original Russian source)


Russia has also claimed an artillery shell fired from Ukaine destroyed one of their border checkpoints earlier this morning. Putin is currently meeting with his national security council, so these could be the false flags that form his casus belli for any intervention.
 
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Scotrail314209

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Russian media just came out with this claim.

"BREAKING: Russian Military destroyed two Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicles, which crossed the Russian border from Ukraine for the emergency evacuation of a Ukrainian sabotage group - RIA"

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1495742397187338248
https://ria.ru/20220221/granitsa-1774091650.html (Original Russian source)


Russia has also claimed an artillery shell fired from Ukaine destroyed one of their border checkpoints earlier this morning. Putin is currently meeting with his national security council, so these could be the false flags that form his casus belli for any intervention.
Oh here we go.

I wonder what’ll happen next.
 

adrock1976

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Well NATO military bases around it's borders could be seen in this way (and the Russians indeed do). If there were Russian bases in Ireland, Norway, Iceland and the Continent facing us we probably wouldn't be very happy about it.

Regarding NATO/US bases, I remember back around 2006-08 (when Bush Junior was US President and his "Axis of Evil/War on Terror" mantra) when the US/The Pentagon wanted to site radar systems in the Czech Republic and Poland as part of the US Missile "Defence" system, which the citizens were totally against that idea and made their feelings clear to both governments.

The reasons given at the time was to have "protection" from the Iranian Government. Now then, the very first time I looked at an atlas in geography class at primary school, Iran being in North West Asia is miles away from both Poland and the Czech Republic (was Czechoslovakia back then), with Turkey and Azerbaijan being very close to Iran. Being as both Poland and the present day Czech Republic are very close to Russia Federation, it is easy to see how the Kremlin can feel antagonised.
 

ainsworth74

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Russian rulers have never been shy about murdering their opponents, from the Tsars through Lenin to Putin.
Indeed and apparently they're already making preparations to deal with "problem" individuals:

Russia Planning Post-Invasion Arrest and Assassination Campaign in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say​

Intelligence on possible targets has been shared with Ukraine and other partners in the region.​

The United States has obtained intelligence that Russia may target prominent political opponents, anti-corruption activists, and Belarusian and Russian dissidents living in exile should it move forward with plans to invade Ukraine, as U.S. President Joe Biden warned on Thursday that the threat of a renewed Russian invasion of the country remains “very high” and could take place within the next several days.

Four people familiar with U.S. intelligence said that Russia has drafted lists of Ukrainian political figures and other prominent individuals to be targeted for either arrest or assassination in the event of a Russian assault on Ukraine.

A fifth person, a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the United States has been downgrading its intelligence classification regarding threats to specific groups within Ukraine to share this information with Ukrainian government officials and other partners in the region positioned to help.

...


Well NATO military bases around it's borders could be seen in this way (and the Russians indeed do). If there were Russian bases in Ireland, Norway, Iceland and the Continent facing us we probably wouldn't be very happy about it.
I mean yes we would be unhappy but then we're small and so that would be quite a lot of surrounding! Of course the real irony is that Russia have brought a lot of their own fears to life by their own actions. NATO was in many respects a zombie organisation. It lacked a real mission (probably one of the reasons it kept getting stuck into situations it had no business being in such as Afghanistan and Libya) and most of it's members were barely paying lip service to the idea of spending money on defence. Since 2008 and especially since 2014 and now more than ever it's reinvigorated NATO and many members are making strides to spending the 2% of GDP target for the first time since the Cold War. The present crisis has driven Finland and Sweden closer to NATO (I wouldn't be at all surprised if both seek to join before too much longer).

If Russia's neighbours didn't feel as if they were under threat of invasion of forcible regime change perhaps they wouldn't be so keen to rush into the arms of NATO? And therefore Russia wouldn't have cause to feel quite so "surrounded"*. After all NATO hasn't forced anyone to join they've all applied of their own free will...

*An odd concept for a country with land borders stretching 12,000 miles of which it only shares around 6% with NATO members
Russian media just came out with this claim.

BREAKING: Russian Military destroyed two Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicles, which crossed the Russian border from #Ukraine for the emergency evacuation of a Ukrainian sabotage group - RIA

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1495742397187338248
https://ria.ru/20220221/granitsa-1774091650.html (Original Russian source)


They also claimed an artillery shell fired from Ukaine, destroyed a Russian border checkpoint earlier this morning.
Wonder if they're going to manage to do a better job of covering their tracks than the people that put out a video a few days ago of "polish saboteurs" attacking a chlorine tank near Horlivka near Donetsk. Which rapidly fell apart when it transpired the metadata within the video was littered with evidence showing it was produced days before the alleged "attack" took place and included sounds from other videos found on YouTube mixed into it. There's a lengthy Twitter thread on the matter here:

 

ainsworth74

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The reasons given at the time was to have "protection" from the Iranian Government. Now then, the very first time I looked at an atlas in geography class at primary school, Iran being in North West Asia is miles away from both Poland and the Czech Republic (was Czechoslovakia back then), with Turkey and Azerbaijan being very close to Iran. Being as both Poland and the present day Czech Republic are very close to Russia Federation, it is easy to see how the Kremlin can feel antagonised.
If you want to launch a ballistic missile attack on Europe from Iran guess which way the missiles will fly and therefore where it might be logical to put your ballistic missile defences?

Plus that proposed ballistic missile defence would have been able to defeat a handful of missiles at a time (the sort of attack expected from Iran). Russia had somewhere north of 250 land based long range ballistic missiles alone many with multiple warheads per missile. They usually, even then, were able to have one or two ballistic missile submarines at sea giving them even more fire power. And that ignores things the large number of short range ballistic missiles that Russia fielded. The idea that a pair of ballistic missile defence sites in Poland and the Czech Republic were actually a threat to Russia's ability to launch nuclear strikes on Europe (considering that strikes against the US would fly over the North Pole and strikes from the sea would bypass the installations anyway) was ludicrous.

Made for good Russian propaganda though I guess to pretend that this was somehow aimed at Russia rather than Iran. That's no comment on whether they were a good idea in general but the idea that they were a threat to Russia is ludicrous.
 

Scotrail314209

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I'm no longer optimistic about the threat of an invasion being averted. It really looks like all attempts at diplomacy haven't worked and that an invasion is the only course.

Even less optimistic after the Kremlin basically put the burner on a Biden-Putin summit earlier today.

I'm not worried about the invasion itself, but more what it could lead into.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Well NATO military bases around it's borders could be seen in this way (and the Russians indeed do). If there were Russian bases in Ireland, Norway, Iceland and the Continent facing us we probably wouldn't be very happy about it.

That's not much of an analogy. In the hypothetical situation you're describing, the UK would be completely surrounded on all sides by Russian bases, in countries whose areas/populations add up to being many times bigger than us.

By contrast, the NATO military bases run down a relatively small proportion of Russia's border on just one side of a a huge country. Ironically, your analogy of the UK being surrounded is much closer to the situation Ukraine is currently in - surrounded on 3 sides by the forces of a hostile foreign power that is far, far, bigger than Ukraine is.

(That's not to say we shouldn't be talking to Russia about it and seeing what can be done to alleviate any concerns they might have. But alleviating any concerns does not mean, sacrificing the ability of independent sovereign nations to exist).
 

kylemore

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How on Earth do you think Russia and Putin were being pushed about? Do you think that maybe Russia poisoning people on UK soil was an example of Russia being 'pushed about'? Or maybe Russia annexing Crimea? Was that an example of Russia being 'pushed about'? Or how about the regularity with which Russia regularly flies military aircraft up to UK airspace? Or the way Russia supported/incited insurrections in Eastern Ukraine? Or all the Russian lead efforts to secretly interfere in the 2016 US election? Or the way Russia has clearly sought to weaponize its gas supplies to Europe? Or the regular cyber-attacks on Western countries that appear to originate from Russia?
If you actually believe most of that stuff then we truly do live in completely different worlds!
 

ainsworth74

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If you actually believe most of that stuff then we truly do live in completely different worlds!
So who was responsible for the use of the nerve agent Novichok in 2018 in Salisbury or the radioactive material Polonium-210 in 2006 in London?
 

DarloRich

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I'm not worried about the invasion itself, but more what it could lead into.

Nothing is going to happen beyond lots of harsh words and sanctions. NATO/UK aren't going to ride into Ukraine to fight the Russians. The Russians aren't going to attack NATO or Western interests. Why would they? They need to sell gas to us! They aren't stupid. What they want is Ukraine run along lines they approve of.

If you actually believe most of that stuff then we truly do live in completely different worlds!
Indeed. The real world and the fantasy world many seem to inhabit are very different places. Social media and "manipulative" media have a lot to answer for.

I do wonder why so many on the left are keen to give a free pass to Putin.

So who was responsible for the use of the nerve agent Novichok in 2018 in Salisbury or the radioactive material Polonium-210 in 2006 in London?
The CIA or the Illuminati or the lizard people or somesuch. Wont be Russia
 

adc82140

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Putin is clearly feeling like he's being backed in to a corner. The level of silly stories on RT has gone up in the last day. Normally RT is a reasonable source of the Russian view if you sort through the propaganda, but today is almost exclusively fake news. The story about the border post being shelled is accompanied by a picture of a sorry looking collapsed garden shed.

I actually think that Syria was more dangerous as regards a US/Russian escalation. Both parties were flinging bombs around in close proximity to each other, if a US bomb had hit Russian troops or vice versa I dread to think how that would have played out.

I don't see a full "invasion" of Ukraine. My bet is that Putin will recognise the so called "peoples republics" as independent, and Russian forces will be "invited" in. Then will follow skirmishes, and eventually a frozen conflict which Putin can switch on and off as it suits him.
 
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brad465

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Putin to address the nation at 9pm local time (GMT + 3).
Oh christ on a bike. Do we think this will be 'the' announcement?
almost certainly IMO.
The speculation at the moment is the announcement will be to formally recognise the two self-declared republics in the Donbas. If he does this then it's a good pre-text for an invasion, as then Russian forces could openly be sent there (at the moment they probably only get away with supplying equipment to separatists).
 

Scotrail314209

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Waiting for further confirmation but,

"BREAKING — Putin told Scholz and Macron that he was going to sign a decree recognizing the independence of the DNR and LNR — RT"

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1495820836858740741

Edit:
AFP are reporting this (Through without the bit about Scholz and Macron as far as i can see)
I wonder if Scholz and Macron were even aware of it, wouldn't they have released a statement?
 

GWRtom

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brad465

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BBC live feed now saying Putin has decided to recognise independence of breakaway regions:


Putin recognises independence of breakaway areas of Ukraine​

The Kremlin says President Putin has decided to recognise the independence of two breakaway areas of Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists.
A Kremlin statement said Putin had told the French and German leaders he intended to sign a decree recognising the Donetsk and Luhansk areas as independent states.
 

DarloRich

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The speculation at the moment is the announcement will be to formally recognise the two self-declared republics in the Donbas. If he does this then it's a good pre-text for an invasion, as then Russian forces could openly be sent there (at the moment they probably only get away with supplying equipment to separatists).
that is the plan: first "false flag" incidents, then recognise the separatist areas, which then once recognised ask for their mother country to protect them from the Ukrainians thus allowing Russian forces in, followed by absorption into Russia of those areas.
 

nanstallon

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I used to feel that NATO was redundant, following the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, and certainly felt that NATO involvement in Kosovo and Afghanistan was beyond its terms of reference. However, Russia's behaviour justifies NATO's continued existence. Putin's aggression towards Ukraine, and the taming of Belarus under his proxy whore Lukashenko, have perhaps unified the West at last. Let's hope so for everybody's sake.
 

GWRtom

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Seems Putin's speech has been delayed until 19:00 GMT

Putin speaking now on RT.

--- Also --
Speculation in some Ukrainian media that the government is set to impose marital law tonight, after an ongoing national security council meeting.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1495829038019063808
Reports in #Ukraine's local media that the country is set to impose martial law. Security Council meeting is ongoing. If so, decision to be public at 9 p.m. kyiv time | EMPR #russiaukrainewar
 
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DarloRich

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Just a quick note: 3 Chinooks and 2 Merlins have flown over since 17:00 all heading north. Anyone would think there is an international crisis on ;)
 
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