China vs Taiwan and other potential invasions/conflicts of concern (previously included Russia & Ukraine)

[GWRtom]

Jesus christ this is not good,

"Putin says it was "madness" that national republics were given the right to leave the Russian Empire."

"Putin: "Why did we have to transfer the rights to the territories that had been part of the Russian Empire?"

"Putin says Ukraine has been created by Russia - by a Bolshevik Russia"

"We are ready to show you what true de-Communization means to Ukraine."

Taken from https://twitter.com/markmackinnon

 

[DarloRich]

And people wonder why former Soviet block states in Eastern Europe want to join NATO!

That aside lets cut to the chase: This from Putin is just ranty nonsense designed to excuse the invasion of a sovereign nation because they wont be his mates and give him cover to justify the deaths of Russian soldiers to their families. he is also quite clear about his salami tactics for Ukraine. The question is what happens once he gets these two contested regions.

PS I bet the Baltic states are pleased they joined NATO when they did! Putin wants those independent countries back as well

 

[adc82140]

There has been talk of the "Finlandisation" of Ukraine. I'd say Putin's aim is "Belarusation" - a puppet regime in place, with the strings being pulled in Moscow. I don't think he'd go as far as annexation.

 

[DarloRich]

I'd say Putin's aim is "Belarusation" - a puppet regime in place, with the strings being pulled in Moscow. I don't think he'd go as far as annexation.

exactly - he wants a friendly, pliant regime in place.

 

[adc82140]

Well that was 45 minutes of stuff we kind of already knew. He was careful not to overtly threaten Ukraine, but at the same time did a thorough job of undermining it as a state. It's also interesting where he drew a line. He claimed, quite outlandishly, that Ukraine was seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. But he said it would be from post Soviet knowledge, and didn't mention any help from the West.

 

[DarloRich]

lets not forget it is NATO pushing for a war, apparently.

 

[kylemore]

So who was responsible for the use of the nerve agent Novichok in 2018 in Salisbury or the radioactive material Polonium-210 in 2006 in London?

The UK narrative on Salisbury is so full of holes as to be laughable - only very gullible people would believe it.

 

[Gostav]

exactly - he wants a friendly, pliant regime in place.

And also, China now get powerful and have similar needs for their backyard.

To sum up, the golden age of the West since 1990 after the Cold War is over. Will democratically elected governments in Western Europe have the courage to admit that more military spending will be required in the future and lead to relative cuts in social welfare?

 

[ainsworth74]

The UK narrative on Salisbury is so full of holes as to be laughable - only very gullible people would believe it.

One could suggest that the interview performance on Russian TV of the primary suspects was laughable but in any event if it is so full of holes would you care to outline them or point to somewhere that does? And would you also explain who was responsible in that case?

Will you also explain who was responsible for the Polonium-210 attack?

 

[kylemore]

I do wonder why so many on the left are keen to give a free pass to Putin.

And here's me thinking we were all Right Wing nutters!

Will you also explain who was responsible for the Polonium-210 attack?

Probably the same actors who were responsible for the Salisbury event.

One could suggest that the interview performance on Russian TV of the primary suspects was laughable but in any event if it is so full of holes would you care to outline them or point to somewhere that does?

Craig Murray is the man to go to.

 

[DanNCL]

Here’s my prediction on what’ll happen. Once Russia has formally declared recognition of the two breakaway republics (Putin has so far only stated he intends to recognise them, as of yet no formal recognition has been made), Russian military will move into Donbass ‘on the request’ of the rebel leaders in the region. In response the west will cancel Nord Stream 2, impose a few other sanctions that’ll achieve nothing, Ukraine will skip Eurovision for another year (something that they already looked like they had to do this year as their performer pulled out last week) and that’ll be it. I really doubt Russia will try to take Kyiv or to overthrow Zelensky.

 

[ainsworth74]

Probably the same actors who were responsible for the Salisbury event.

And they were?

Craig Murray is the man to go to.

I'll have a look. Thank you

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The UK narrative on Salisbury is so full of holes as to be laughable - only very gullible people would believe it.

Wow, you really do live in a different Universe, don't you. Out of interest, in your reality, is Elvis by any chance still alive and living on the moon?

 

[nanstallon]

And also, China now get powerful and have similar needs for their backyard.

To sum up, the golden age of the West since 1990 after the Cold War is over. Will democratically elected governments in Western Europe have the courage to admit that more military spending will be required in the future and lead to relative cuts in social welfare?

Yes, that is the hard reality. The West missed the opportunity to sort out European security arrangements with a then friendly Russia in the early 1990s, and by humiliating a still powerful country has ended up confronting a vengeful Putin. Not that I want to make excuses for his aggression towards Ukraine, we are where we are. We must now look to our defence, and spend whatever is required. After Ukraine, who will be next?

Versailles in 1919 imposed humiliation on Germany and produced Hitler. Russia's reaction to a similar humiliation produced Putin. Both evil men and we know that appeasement doesn't work.

 

[brad465]

This week's world history lesson comes from a teacher who seems to be on a mix of acid and Red Bull.

 

[dgl]

I suppose Putin has to be very careful, if he tries something and loses he can't easily hush that up and the Russian people will want answers, let alone his political allies
Would Russia win a fight?, I'm not too sure.

 

[birchesgreen]

And also, China now get powerful and have similar needs for their backyard.

To sum up, the golden age of the West since 1990 after the Cold War is over. Will democratically elected governments in Western Europe have the courage to admit that more military spending will be required in the future and lead to relative cuts in social welfare?

Na, we'd rather elect con men, or blokes who are a bit of a "laugh" who promise to cut our tax.

 

[kylemore]

And they were?

I hope you'll agree Ainsworth, it would be quite something if a complete nobody like me had the exact identities of the parties involved!

Suffice it to say that I am sceptical of the UK Government's narrative and you are not - is that a reasonable summation?

 

[GWRtom]

Well this is it Putin has ordered the Russian army to enter the DPR/LPR under the guise of a peacekeeping operation,

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495873188663861264

Edit:

Unconfirmed footage of a convoy already entering the DPR.
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1495863322016722948?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1495863322016722948|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

 

[Scotrail314209]

Well this is it Putin has ordered the Russian army to enter the DPR/LPR under the guise of a peacekeeping operation,

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495873188663861264

Edit:

Unconfirmed footage of a convoy already entering the DPR.
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1495863322016722948?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1495863322016722948|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

Oh lord here we go.

The question will be if Ukrainian forces will fire on them or not. Looks like all eyes are going to be on Ukraine now.

It's very real now, and any hope I had for diplomacy is gone. Good luck to the people of the DPR/LPR and the rest of Ukraine.

 

[brad465]

Well this is it Putin has ordered the Russian army to enter the DPR/LPR under the guise of a peacekeeping operation,

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495873188663861264

Edit:

Unconfirmed footage of a convoy already entering the DPR.
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1495863322016722948?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1495863322016722948|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

The first invasion influencing Google Maps' traffic radar

 

[DarloRich]

Well this is it Putin has ordered the Russian army to enter the DPR/LPR under the guise of a peacekeeping operation,

Of course he has. This is the first slice of the salami tactics. How many slices of Ukrainian salami does Putin want?

 

[adc82140]

This is far more Putin's style, rather than raining the bombs on Kiev. Divide and rule. The Russian narrative is never of aggression, but to "protect their citizens". I said from the start that they would start overtly doing what they've already covertly been doing since 2014. Everyone knows there have been Russian troops in Donbass all along.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Is it really within Russia’s interests to take the whole of Ukraine, or will Putin settle for the separatist states?

 

[adc82140]

Is it really within Russia’s interests to take the whole of Ukraine, or will Putin settle for the separatist states?

Even Putin doesn't lay claim to all of Ukraine. The bits to the west of the Dnieper river he has previously said should return to Poland. What we could end up seeing is a divided Ukraine.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Suffice it to say that I am sceptical of the UK Government's narrative

But why? Do you know of any reasonable professional news sources (NB: news sources, not Russian propaganda sources) that have provided significant grounds to doubt that Russia instigated those killings?

 

[rapmastaj]

Things are looking pretty bleak. If Western leaders really want to stop Putin's salami slicing of Ukraine they need to stop giving him opportunities to show off his large table and do the following:

- close the convenient loopholes that let Russian oligarchs use the London property market to launder their dirty money, and reform Party funding so Russian billionaires can't influence Tory (or Labour) policy through political donations.

- cancel Nord Stream 2. Germany and other European countries need to reduce their reliance on Russian gas.

- make clear to Putin that if there is a conflict in Ukraine, he will personally be charged with war crimes and an international arrest warrant will be served.

 

[kylemore]

But why? Do you know of any reasonable professional news sources (NB: news sources, not Russian propaganda sources) that have provided significant grounds to doubt that Russia instigated those killings?

"Reasonable Professional News Sources" What is meant by that?

 

[daodao]

Things are looking pretty bleak. If Western leaders really want to stop Putin's salami slicing of Ukraine they need to stop giving him opportunities to show off his large table and do the following:

- close the convenient loopholes that let Russian oligarchs use the London property market to launder their dirty money, and reform Party funding so Russian billionaires can't influence Tory (or Labour) policy through political donations.

- cancel Nord Stream 2. Germany and other European countries need to reduce their reliance on Russian gas.

- make clear to Putin that if there is a conflict in Ukraine, he will personally be charged with war crimes and an international arrest warrant will be served.

Is this realistic? Putin has merely made a cautious move that regularises the de facto situation in the 2 Donbass oblasts and may help to stabilise it.

As for your suggestions:

1. The Deripaska affair illustrates the degree of links between the 2 main UK political parties and Russian "dirty" money. There is also so much other "dirty" money swilling around London, that attempts to clamp down on it will affect many powerful, wealthy and influential individuals who would put up great resistance to any such action by Westminster.
2. Reducing use of Russian gas by European countries (including the UK) would be cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. With energy prices already increasing at an astronomic rate, this would be economic suicide.
3. A war crime? Pull the other one. I doubt that the world-wide international community would endorse an international arrest warrant.

For the Ukraine to survive as an integral whole, it needs to recognise the geo-political reality and accept "Finlandisation", regional autonomy and language duality for its inhabitants. The Ukraine:

• is currently literally led by a puppet comedian, whose strings seem to stretch to Brussels and Washington.
• has little historical legitimacy and no tradition of genuine statehood; it was only created post WW1 and its boundaries have fluctuated since then. It is merely a part of Russia that since the dissolution of the original Russian state (Kievan Rus) has been at least partly under different rulers and has slightly different traditions to the rest of Russia, e.g. in terms of language variation and religion, more so the further west one goes.
• would become a threat to Russia if it joined NATO, which since the end of the Cold War has taken a distinct aggressive and expansionist stance and meddled in areas outside its remit.

The current situation is a disaster, resulting from the overthrow by a Western-backed neo-fascist putsch in February 2014, of the democratically elected President Viktor Yanukovich (born in the Donetsk Oblast), who had an understanding of the need for the Ukraine to work with its more powerful neighbour.

 

[birchesgreen]

"Reasonable Professional News Sources" What is meant by that?

Unbiased news sources perhaps, if such things exist.