Comment piece in Passenger Transport - "The railway risks becoming irrelevant"

[miklcct]

Also the railway doesn't need to worry about being prosecuted if someone gains access to the track as happens in the UK.

Did the very first railways in these countries already electrified that everyone knows the railway is a dangerous place?

In some countries, crossing railways directly, or even having a market along the railways, are commonplace as those railways are still in the slow stream / diesel locomotive era posing little danger.

 

[Class 170101]

Worse still I assume there are maintenance costs assocated with lifts that are higher than a low tech ramp.

Yes indeed, and I doubt we are overendowed with engineers to fix such matters when they go wrong.

 

[Robert Ambler]

The article is interesting as it assumes the railway is not already irrelevant to most of the population!

So I think those of us who are involved with the railway in some way (employees/regular travellers/enthusiasts etc) are somewhat inward looking as we look at the railway and see that it is busy. Official statistics show that pre covid only 2% of passenger journeys in Great Britain were made by train. The vast majority of those were in or to/from London (lets not forget that London Underground itself carries a similar number of passengers as the whole of the rest of the UKs railways combined). So for most people the railway is about as relevant as space travel and the only place in the country where it has some real importance is London.

Going forwards there is a real threat that the railway may become even more irrelevant. At some point possibly in the near future autonomous electric road vehicles will become fairly common. When that happens the cost of using taxis/private hire road vehicles via a ride hailing app will plummet. Currently the cost of using taxis and private hire vehicles is fairly high. The two big costs are the driver who has to be paid and the fuel. No driver to pay in an autonomous vehicle and EVs have much lower fuel costs. So the journey costs are likely to fall to about 10% of the current charges. That will make this option cheaper than most public transport options (and probably cheaper than using your own car) for the vast majority of journeys. It will also be much more convenient. When that happens the railway could well be seen as a quaint anachronism outside of large urban areas and ridership could plummet.

Perhaps these comments should be in the other thread about industrial action!

 

[Peter Sarf]

The article is interesting as it assumes the railway is not already irrelevant to most of the population!

So I think those of us who are involved with the railway in some way (employees/regular travellers/enthusiasts etc) are somewhat inward looking as we look at the railway and see that it is busy. Official statistics show that pre covid only 2% of passenger journeys in Great Britain were made by train. The vast majority of those were in or to/from London (lets not forget that London Underground itself carries a similar number of passengers as the whole of the rest of the UKs railways combined). So for most people the railway is about as relevant as space travel and the only place in the country where it has some real importance is London.

Going forwards there is a real threat that the railway may become even more irrelevant. At some point possibly in the near future autonomous electric road vehicles will become fairly common. When that happens the cost of using taxis/private hire road vehicles via a ride hailing app will plummet. Currently the cost of using taxis and private hire vehicles is fairly high. The two big costs are the driver who has to be paid and the fuel. No driver to pay in an autonomous vehicle and EVs have much lower fuel costs. So the journey costs are likely to fall to about 10% of the current charges. That will make this option cheaper than most public transport options (and probably cheaper than using your own car) for the vast majority of journeys. It will also be much more convenient. When that happens the railway could well be seen as a quaint anachronism outside of large urban areas and ridership could plummet.

Perhaps these comments should be in the other thread about industrial action!

You might be right about autonomous vehicles. I have been with people who have considered dispensing with their car and relying on taxis. Sometimes I have been the lift (my large old car is handy for dirty/diy tasks). This would be even more tempting if the cost of the taxi reduces. However it does not really impact rail journeys. But then I am in London - where travelling half way across London by road can take as long as driving to Nuneaton !.

The demise of long distance rail travel will have to wait until electric vehicles have a far better range.

 

[andystock22]

Regional and long distance operators are nearly back to 2019 passenger demand.

The problem is the South East Commuter operators and the loss of all those annual season tickets sales. Remember London has the highest percentage of jobs which can be done from remotely.

If someone is only going to the office 2 / 3 days a week they will only pay for the actual rail journeys they make.

Then you need to consider many office workers get 25 days annual leave plus Bank holidays. Then add a few sick days.

For example someone working 2 days a week in an office, would only use the train to commute around 92 days per year to the office.

 

[bramling]

It’s something that baffles me & I can only assume particular depots couldn’t agree between management/union for a sensible outcome. My TOC was one of two who initially piloted the ‘bubble’ training. Can’t remember who or how the other got on but we absolutely nailed it & ended up passing out a record number of new drivers.

In some places it could simply be down to individuals. To this day at my place some are “PCR tests for both and bubbled up only”, whilst others are “Jump in any time you want, I’ve already had Covid”.

We have a particularly daft situation where you can have someone in for a PCR test on the Friday (off the trains for a day in the process), off Saturday Sunday and Monday, then with trainee on the Tuesday. I suspect the pertinent part there is the bit in brackets.

 

[Craig1122]

For example someone working 2 days a week in an office, would only use the train to commute around 92 days per year to the office.

The relation between season and day return can vary enormously though. If that person lived in Portsmouth for example it would actually be cheaper to buy an annual than 92 day returns! So that change in commute isn't always revenue negative and not having to move them 5 days a week is actually a financial advantage to the railway.

Fleet is £119.60/week or £37.80/day so again someone commuting 3 days a week is only a marginal revenue loss. But they are potentially saving you running extra peak trains.

There's some suggestion that if people only need to commute a couple of days a week they may also consider living further away. Again may actually be a positive thing for revenue.

 

[miklcct]

The relation between season and day return can vary enormously though. If that person lived in Portsmouth for example it would actually be cheaper to buy an annual than 92 day returns! So that change in commute isn't always revenue negative and not having to move them 5 days a week is actually a financial advantage to the railway.

Fleet is £119.60/week or £37.80/day so again someone commuting 3 days a week is only a marginal revenue loss. But they are potentially saving you running extra peak trains.

There's some suggestion that if people only need to commute a couple of days a week they may also consider living further away. Again may actually be a positive thing for revenue.

Even for a line as long as Bournemouth - Clapham Junction a season isn't attractive at all compared to buying off-peak day returns with a Railcard.

 

[Ken H]

The relation between season and day return can vary enormously though. If that person lived in Portsmouth for example it would actually be cheaper to buy an annual than 92 day returns! So that change in commute isn't always revenue negative and not having to move them 5 days a week is actually a financial advantage to the railway.

Fleet is £119.60/week or £37.80/day so again someone commuting 3 days a week is only a marginal revenue loss. But they are potentially saving you running extra peak trains.

There's some suggestion that if people only need to commute a couple of days a week they may also consider living further away. Again may actually be a positive thing for revenue.

Yes but maybe driving some of the way is now feasable with quieter rush hours. And people who have moved far from their jobs may stay over so the railway only gets 1 return ticket, not two.

 

[uglymonkey]

Taxi's are fiendishly expensive if used regularly as weel

 

[lachlan]

The article is interesting as it assumes the railway is not already irrelevant to most of the population!

So I think those of us who are involved with the railway in some way (employees/regular travellers/enthusiasts etc) are somewhat inward looking as we look at the railway and see that it is busy. Official statistics show that pre covid only 2% of passenger journeys in Great Britain were made by train. The vast majority of those were in or to/from London (lets not forget that London Underground itself carries a similar number of passengers as the whole of the rest of the UKs railways combined). So for most people the railway is about as relevant as space travel and the only place in the country where it has some real importance is London.

Going forwards there is a real threat that the railway may become even more irrelevant. At some point possibly in the near future autonomous electric road vehicles will become fairly common. When that happens the cost of using taxis/private hire road vehicles via a ride hailing app will plummet. Currently the cost of using taxis and private hire vehicles is fairly high. The two big costs are the driver who has to be paid and the fuel. No driver to pay in an autonomous vehicle and EVs have much lower fuel costs. So the journey costs are likely to fall to about 10% of the current charges. That will make this option cheaper than most public transport options (and probably cheaper than using your own car) for the vast majority of journeys. It will also be much more convenient. When that happens the railway could well be seen as a quaint anachronism outside of large urban areas and ridership could plummet.

Perhaps these comments should be in the other thread about industrial action!

Autonomous cars have the risk of creating even more demand as "driving" becomes easier, encouraging people to make longer journeys and as non-drivers can start making car journeys themselves. This will of course create more congestion. If town centres are to remain pleasant and navigable to walkers and cyclists then we can't just build more roads and flyovers to accommodate this. Thus railway will be vital for absorbing some of this extra travel demand, and may remain attractive if congestion on the roads gives the train a significant time advantage

 

[Robert Ambler]

Autonomous cars have the risk of creating even more demand as "driving" becomes easier, encouraging people to make longer journeys and as non-drivers can start making car journeys themselves. This will of course create more congestion. If town centres are to remain pleasant and navigable to walkers and cyclists then we can't just build more roads and flyovers to accommodate this. Thus railway will be vital for absorbing some of this extra travel demand, and may remain attractive if congestion on the roads gives the train a significant time advantage

Yes I agree with you but that does not mean that is what people will do of course. Nor does it mean that Government will act in the way they should.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Autonomous cars have the risk of creating even more demand as "driving" becomes easier, encouraging people to make longer journeys and as non-drivers can start making car journeys themselves. This will of course create more congestion. If town centres are to remain pleasant and navigable to walkers and cyclists then we can't just build more roads and flyovers to accommodate this. Thus railway will be vital for absorbing some of this extra travel demand, and may remain attractive if congestion on the roads gives the train a significant time advantage

To aid the case for public transport lets put all shops etc in a central place where public transport already runs from/to. I know lets call it a town centre.

 

[Craig1122]

Latest usage figures via Rail's Philip Haigh. Although this refers to a specific day the graph shows usage still generally trending upwards. This despite quite brutal cuts to timetables in some areas.

"Latest transport use statistics show rail reached 92% of pre-pandemic use on Sunday May 22 2022. Road use on same day was 111% and Tube use 87%. Graph shows 28-day moving average with road as solid line, rail as heavy dashes and Tube as light dashes."

https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1531927091473784834?t=Rc50htq92VqntRmZPqkDVQ&s=19

 

[HSTEd]

To aid the case for public transport lets put all shops etc in a central place where public transport already runs from/to. I know lets call it a town centre.

Ultimately people won't travel on public transport to shops if they can avoid it - its an utter pain if you are carrying material and its so tedious to get anywhere on public transport they would want to get asmuch stuff as possible in one trip.

If you really wanted to reduce car use for shopping etc the sensible option is to subsidise delivery services, especially aggregated ones.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ultimately people won't travel on public transport to shops if they can avoid it - its an utter pain if you are carrying material and its so tedious to get anywhere on public transport they would want to get asmuch stuff as possible in one trip.

If you really wanted to reduce car use for shopping etc the sensible option is to subsidise delivery services, especially aggregated ones.

Depends what you mean by "shops". Lifestyle shopping - clothes and the likes - is probably more done by public transport than not. Supermarkets less so, though I think it's a very good thing to have a Tesco Express type thing by stations as picking stuff up on the way home avoids a trip entirely.

Supermarket deliveries typically cost less than two bus fares anyway.

 

[Bald Rick]

Latest usage figures via Rail's Philip Haigh. Although this refers to a specific day the graph shows usage still generally trending upwards. This despite quite brutal cuts to timetables in some areas.

"Latest transport use statistics show rail reached 92% of pre-pandemic use on Sunday May 22 2022. Road use on same day was 111% and Tube use 87%. Graph shows 28-day moving average with road as solid line, rail as heavy dashes and Tube as light dashes."

https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1531927091473784834?t=Rc50htq92VqntRmZPqkDVQ&s=19

there’s a phrase about Statistics…

Sundays have, recently, been typically at well over 100% of 2019 on a comparable basis in revenue terms.

However the railway runs 6 other days a week too. Sundays are about half a typical weekday.
Full week revenue has been consistently 75-80% of 2019 for the last few weeks. And that is after 2 x fare rises.

 

[Horizon22]

Latest usage figures via Rail's Philip Haigh. Although this refers to a specific day the graph shows usage still generally trending upwards. This despite quite brutal cuts to timetables in some areas.

"Latest transport use statistics show rail reached 92% of pre-pandemic use on Sunday May 22 2022. Road use on same day was 111% and Tube use 87%. Graph shows 28-day moving average with road as solid line, rail as heavy dashes and Tube as light dashes."

https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1531927091473784834?t=Rc50htq92VqntRmZPqkDVQ&s=19

Yes Sundays are very busy but it has been known for well over a year that leisure travel on a weekend has rebounded quicker - from a lower base too to the extent that Sunday stock / operations / staff practices haven't caught up in good time. However rail usage & rail revenue over the course of a week are obviously not directly proportional.

 

[Ken H]

Yes Sundays are very busy but it has been known for well over a year that leisure travel on a weekend has rebounded quicker - from a lower base too to the extent that Sunday stock / operations / staff practices haven't caught up in good time. However rail usage & rail revenue over the course of a week are obviously not directly proportional.

Thats the problem. The behaviours have changed. So much of what the railway is set up to do isnt relevant post covid. How the railway re-jigs itself will be so inportant.

 

[miklcct]

Ultimately people won't travel on public transport to shops if they can avoid it - its an utter pain if you are carrying material and its so tedious to get anywhere on public transport they would want to get asmuch stuff as possible in one trip.

If you really wanted to reduce car use for shopping etc the sensible option is to subsidise delivery services, especially aggregated ones.

My experience in Hong Kong is that big supermarkets offer free delivery for basket size over HK$500 (about £50) as a mean to attract business (fresh and frozen food excluded).

Without such delivery service, people tend to just shop in the supermarket near home in small batches as it's tedious to carry a large amount of shopping home.

 

[GoneSouth]

I do think there are some grains of truth in that.

Out of my closest circle of friends I’m the only one in 7 who regularly uses the railway - the others see it as too expensive, too unreliable, too much hassle or a combination of the three.

Passengers are coming back but there is definitely still work to be done in places.

I also see it as too expensive, too unreliable, too much hassle, however it’s all I have. No car and very few long distance buses that take twice as long as the train to get anywhere mean trains are what I use. To me it’s probably more expensive than me owning a car but that’s not an option.

I hope we all come to realise what a wonderful national asset the railway is (or could be) and invest to secure its future and hopefully it’s growth.

To aid the case for public transport lets put all shops etc in a central place where public transport already runs from/to. I know lets call it a town centre.

Preaching to the choir here. Our town planners have buggered up the entire country by allowing (and encouraging) building of awful retail and “entertainment” developments where car is the only means of access.

Have you seen the state of Bristol around Cribbs, Junction 27 of the M62, or pretty much anywhere you can find IKEA. Utterly soul destroying.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Depends what you mean by "shops". Lifestyle shopping - clothes and the likes - is probably more done by public transport than not. Supermarkets less so, though I think it's a very good thing to have a Tesco Express type thing by stations as picking stuff up on the way home avoids a trip entirely.

Supermarket deliveries typically cost less than two bus fares anyway.

My bold - yes. I remember back in 1988 I had two supermarkets (in town so small) on my way home from the station. Safeways (now a Waitrose) and a J Sainsburys which I used until (in the 1990s) it became a shops in shop thing (when JS went out of town and I so lost the JS habit). This has now progressed to a Lidl and is my last port of call on my walk home.

My experience in Hong Kong is that big supermarkets offer free delivery for basket size over HK$500 (about £50) as a mean to attract business (fresh and frozen food excluded).

Without such delivery service, people tend to just shop in the supermarket near home in small batches as it's tedious to carry a large amount of shopping home.

I think Asians are still used to shopping for the food they need for the next one or two days. In the UK (maybe also most of Europe & USA) we have been weaned off the daily fresh routine onto weekly or monthly shops requiring a car !.

I also see it as too expensive, too unreliable, too much hassle, however it’s all I have. No car and very few long distance buses that take twice as long as the train to get anywhere mean trains are what I use. To me it’s probably more expensive than me owning a car but that’s not an option.

I hope we all come to realise what a wonderful national asset the railway is (or could be) and invest to secure its future and hopefully it’s growth.




Preaching to the choir here. Our town planners have buggered up the entire country by allowing (and encouraging) building of awful retail and “entertainment” developments where car is the only means of access.

Have you seen the state of Bristol around Cribbs, Junction 27 of the M62, or pretty much anywhere you can find IKEA. Utterly soul destroying.

Yes need to analyse what people expect from the railways and what the railway is good at.

Oh yes. My sister moans about Cribbs Causway iirc.

AND

On the subject of recovery/growth figures.
On Tuesday afternoon I travelled on the Elizabeth line. I was surprised how busy it was already after one week - all seats taken. How much latent demand has it tapped I wonder. For me (in Croydon) Thameslink has become more useful than East Croydon to Victoria and this has been amplified by its connection at Farringdon to the Elizabeth line. I do however worry about how narrow and hard to reach the Thameslink platforms are at Farringdon. Thats for another thread though.

 

[GoneSouth]

Yes need to analyse what people expect from the railways and what the railway is good at.

Well given the continued move to employment and leisure centres on motorway junctions, the railway will struggle to define itself.

I think I read recently that even Dale Vince (the eco friendly owner of green power provider Ecotricity) wants to build a new stadium on a junction of the M5 for his football league team Forest Green Rovers (just promoted to league 1 btw, congrats to them).

If someone like that has thrown in the towel and said cars are the only way forward and he’s happy for thousands of them to drive to every home game (I very much doubt rural buses in Gloucestershire will be able to serve a facility like that) then we’re stuffed. If the environmentalists can’t be bothered with anything other than building the world around cars then why will anyone else

RIP railways outside London

 

[HSTEd]

Well given the continued move to employment and leisure centres on motorway junctions, the railway will struggle to define itself.

I think I read recently that even Dale Vince (the eco friendly owner of green power provider Ecotricity) wants to build a new stadium on a junction of the M5 for his football league team Forest Green Rovers (just promoted to league 1 btw, congrats to them).

If someone like that has thrown in the towel and said cars are the only way forward and he’s happy for thousands of them to drive to every home game (I very much doubt rural buses in Gloucestershire will be able to serve a facility like that) then we’re stuffed. If the environmentalists can’t be bothered with anything other than building the world around cars then why will anyone else

RIP railways outside London

Ultimately the railway is no longer capable of handling large surges of passenger traffic along unexpected or unusual routes.

Outside of a handful of cases where traffic through the local public transprot system is so large that it can swallow ten thousand or more away supporters without issue, the system will simply fall over.
Which is why public transport stations near stadiums often close on match days.

That's just a feature of the modern railway - and short of driving traffic so high that sports traffic is an uptick in background there is not much to be done.

The pathing for special trains would be unworkable - just look at the mess caused by pathing ghost freight trains, it would be worse with special train paths used once a season!
And capacity additions are very expensive when you might need to unexpectedly carry ten thousand people from say Manchester to Brighton and only do it once a year.

 

[43066]

Latest usage figures via Rail's Philip Haigh. Although this refers to a specific day the graph shows usage still generally trending upwards. This despite quite brutal cuts to timetables in some areas.

"Latest transport use statistics show rail reached 92% of pre-pandemic use on Sunday May 22 2022. Road use on same day was 111% and Tube use 87%. Graph shows 28-day moving average with road as solid line, rail as heavy dashes and Tube as light dashes."

https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1531927091473784834?t=Rc50htq92VqntRmZPqkDVQ&s=19

Given how quickly the tube seemed to bounce back initially, it’s interesting to note its recovery has tracked heavy rail a lot more closely than I would have realised.

Also interesting to note that recovery in heavy rail use now seems to be consistently ahead of that of LU.

Ultimately the railway is no longer capable of handling large surges of passenger traffic along unexpected or unusual routes.

I’m not as convinced as some are that it was ever really capable of doing this.

 

[HSTEd]

I’m not as convinced as some are that it was ever really capable of doing this.

Well it was somewhat easier when traffic density per unit track length was much lower. And special trains could run much slower because the road options were way worse!

But the only way to capture a significant share of thist raffic is to drive capacity and speeds as high as possible and just handle it the same way all other unusual traffic is handled - by just swallowing it into the great mass of the railway.

Ultimately there is plenty of scope for passenger traffic to increase, it still represents a very small fraction of total transport traffic (including light rail and all that)

 

[andystock22]

SWR stated in an Guardian article today that "rush hour arrivals have only recovered to 50% of pre-pandemic.

The tube was only 65% on Monday, while it was 95% last Saturday according to DfT stats.

While Northern is reporting passenger numbers at 125% at weekends.

 

[Ken H]

SWR stated in an Guardian article today that "rush hour arrivals have only recovered to 50% of pre-pandemic.

The tube was only 65% on Monday, while it was 95% last Saturday according to DfT stats.

While Northern is reporting passenger numbers at 125% at weekends.

Yup.
passenger behaviour has changed.

 

[miklcct]

Well given the continued move to employment and leisure centres on motorway junctions, the railway will struggle to define itself.

RIP railways outside London

This will be good for development of express buses which run direct on motorways between town centre and those places though.

Ultimately the railway is no longer capable of handling large surges of passenger traffic along unexpected or unusual routes.

Outside of a handful of cases where traffic through the local public transprot system is so large that it can swallow ten thousand or more away supporters without issue, the system will simply fall over.
Which is why public transport stations near stadiums often close on match days.

That's just a feature of the modern railway - and short of driving traffic so high that sports traffic is an uptick in background there is not much to be done.

The pathing for special trains would be unworkable - just look at the mess caused by pathing ghost freight trains, it would be worse with special train paths used once a season!
And capacity additions are very expensive when you might need to unexpectedly carry ten thousand people from say Manchester to Brighton and only do it once a year.

I can't see any difficulty in adding capacity outside peak hours. If trains run every 2 minutes in peak hours, just run them every 2 minutes when there is a surge demand expected.

If there is an issue in crew availability, then reduce frequency before the surge demand to preserve crews (e.g. if the usual headway is 15 minutes, cut it to 30 minutes while the concert is in place as long as the trains aren't full, such that there are enough crews to work trains every 5 minutes after the concert).

 

[Starmill]

Northern are getting an unusually large flow of passengers over the weekend at the moment because of the near total withdrawal of TransPennine Express services on Sundays, including a complete withdrawal between Manchester, Liverpool or Bolton and Preston or Lancaster, a near complete withdrawal between Manchester and Merseyside, and a very large reduction between York, West Yorkshire or South Yorkshire and Manchester.