Commuting 'not coming back': Harper

[BrianW]

I've just heard the Transport Secretary saying in answer to a question in parliamant this afternoon (around 16.12) that he doesn't think commuter rail will be coming back post-pandemic- at:

Parliamentlive.tv

House of Commons

www.parliamentlive.tv

Time to expect increasing timetables to facilitate leisure travel (esp weekends and off-peak) and fewer 'rush-hour commuter trains'; that should take pressure out of the system- fewer traincrew needed at peak times; fewer trains stood in sidings most of the day.

 

[AM9]

... and fewer 'rush-hour commuter trains'; that should take pressure out of the system- fewer traincrew needed at peak times; fewer trains stood in sidings most of the day.

Which means fewer maximum trains used at any one time, so plenty of cascading or scrapping.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I've just heard the Transport Secretary saying in answer to a question in parliamant this afternoon (around 16.12) that he doesn't think commuter rail will be coming back post-pandemic- at:

Parliamentlive.tv

House of Commons

www.parliamentlive.tv

Time to expect increasing timetables to facilitate leisure travel (esp weekends and off-peak) and fewer 'rush-hour commuter trains'; that should take pressure out of the system- fewer traincrew needed at peak times; fewer trains stood in sidings most of the day.

Trouble is, those rush hour commuters are mostly in electric trains (many of them 3rd rail), with little prospect of further utilisation on the network.
They tried re-engineering the 319s into bi-modes, but it didn't work out.
There'll be some modest moves of AC-capable trains northwards for a handful of newly wired routes, otherwise it's scrap time.

 

[al78]

I wonder what the huge throng of passengers is that gets off trains at Horsham around 6 pm weekdays if not commuters?

 

[43066]

I've just heard the Transport Secretary saying in answer to a question in parliamant this afternoon (around 16.12) that he doesn't think commuter rail will be coming back post-pandemic- at:

Parliamentlive.tv

House of Commons

www.parliamentlive.tv

Time to expect increasing timetables to facilitate leisure travel (esp weekends and off-peak) and fewer 'rush-hour commuter trains'; that should take pressure out of the system- fewer traincrew needed at peak times; fewer trains stood in sidings most of the day.

It was a throw away comment in response to a loaded question about reforms, Sunday working etc. So it’s clearly in the government’s interest to downplay any recovery.

In London and the south east it is clearly coming back, albeit with less emphasis on traditional peaks.

I wonder what the huge throng of passengers is that gets off trains at Horsham around 6 pm weekdays if not commuters?

Indeed. Similarly I don’t think many of the thousands of people I just saw at London Bridge wearing smart casual/formal office attire were coming back from a day at the beach!

 

[dk1]

I take most things that he says with a pinch of salt.

 

[12LDA28C]

Which means fewer maximum trains used at any one time, so plenty of cascading or scrapping.

Really? that's a strange interpretation. More likely TOCs will make more targeted use of their fleets with less stock used during the peaks (if necessary) and more frequent / longer trains put in place for leisure travellers.

 

[bazzarati]

Whatever the government says think twice and then think again. They have a narrative that the taxpayer is bailing out a dying industry (laughable in the extreme), but so long as strikes continue with RMT and ASLEF this will carry on. It is utterly bogus. Every time I've been on a train it's been standing only. They all fiddle figures and spin facts to fit their agenda as beautifully illustrated in the WhatsApp messages leaked during lockdown from Hancock. People in government lie and will continue to do so

 

[Edsmith]

Commuting levels are still well down on pre pandemic levels especially on Monday's and Friday's and I don't really see that changing.

 

[D1537]

Commuting levels are still well down on pre pandemic levels especially on Monday's and Friday's and I don't really see that changing.

As someone who commutes by road the only day that I see reduced levels from pre-pandemic is Fridays, and they were less busy than the rest of the week even before Covid.

 

[dk1]

Commuting levels are still well down on pre pandemic levels especially on Monday's and Friday's and I don't really see that changing.

Mondays seems to have picked up considerably.

 

[D1537]

Whatever the government says think twice and then think again. They have a narrative that the taxpayer is bailing out a dying industry (laughable in the extreme), but so long as strikes continue with RMT and ASLEF this will carry on. It is utterly bogus. Every time I've been on a train it's been standing only. They all fiddle figures and spin facts to fit their agenda as beautifully illustrated in the WhatsApp messages leaked during lockdown from Hancock. People in government lie and will continue to do so

It's almost like there's an ulterior motive to what the current government does. I can't think why that might be (well, I can, the railways don't make money for them, their donors or the businesses related to their friends at 55 Tufton Street, but that would just be cynical, wouldn't it?)

 

[bramling]

Which means fewer maximum trains used at any one time, so plenty of cascading or scrapping.

Is that really the case, though? The traditional peak hours were such that there were certain things which could be done, such as run trains quickly back against the flow as ECS, precisely match length according to expected demand (which was generally constant from one day/week to the next), and also carry out a load of maintenance between the peaks.

Leisure demand is both less consistent and less predictable, so you can end up with longer formations having to run across the board and be out longer, so suddenly a significant amount of your maintenance is concentrated on the overnight period. The latter introduces its own problem as you now need more depot space and resource.

If you look at something like how Great Northern used to be arranged before 2018. The bulk of the outer suburban fleets (317/321/365) outstabled overnight at Kings Lynn, Cambridge, Peterborough and Letchworth, which only a comparatively small number of units staying overnight at a proper depot - Hornsey. By contrast, the inner suburban fleet (313) stabled a lot of units at Hornsey overnight, with a lesser proportion outstabled at Welwyn, Hertford and Letchworth. This was actually quite efficient, though did start to break down as rhe 2010s went on as more and more 365s spent the midday running as 8-car formations.

Personally I suspect over time commuting will return as more employers come to realise that not all employees are knuckling down to home working. My neighbour is a case in point, there’s clearly not much work going on given how much time he now spends gardening or walking into town!

 

[JonathanH]

Personally I suspect over time commuting will return as more employers come to realise that not all employees are knuckling down to home working. My neighbour is a case in point, there’s clearly not much work going on given how much time he now spends gardening or walking into town!

That isn't necessarily a sign that your neighbour isn't producing exactly the same output, just at different times. There is more flexibility now and people are judged on what they deliver, not their presence.

I think there is some clear divergence now between the views of different workers, with polarisation to attending the office daily if the office is local, and attending much less frequently if it involves a long commute.

Trains are busy some days, but generally for shorter journeys. Any overcrowding is because frequencies and train lengths have been reduced to match the lower demand, not because demand is back to pre-Covid levels.

 

[telstarbox]

Well it's 3 years since lots of people started WFH for the first time and coming up to 1 year since it was mandated by the government. I think employers have probably got a handle on what works for them. Some people skived long before WFH was a thing!

 

[nw1]

I wonder what the huge throng of passengers is that gets off trains at Horsham around 6 pm weekdays if not commuters?

Only that many because the last 20 trains have been cancelled due to the strikes, the Tory spin machine would doubtless claim.

 

[185]

Looking at the loadings coming into Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds I would hazard a guess Mr Mark Hapless MP has only considered trains heading into that place down south in his statement, and not the rest of the country.

 

[Neptune]

Looking at the loadings coming into Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds I would hazard a guess Mr Mark Hapless MP has only considered trains heading into that place down south in his statement, and not the rest of the country.

Yes all those full 4 car EMU’s heading down the Aire Valley into Leeds in the morning and out of Leeds at teatime suggest things are recovering. Not at pre-pandemic rates admittedly but still a fair few trains are F&S arriving into the city. It looks pretty much the same on all other routes into/out of Leeds at peak times.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Looking at the loadings coming into Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds I would hazard a guess Mr Mark Hapless MP has only considered trains heading into that place down south in his statement, and not the rest of the country.

I wouldn't guess that. Manchester has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. You only have to look at the many empty spaces in free station car parks that were full well before the end of the morning peak in 2019 to realise that.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed. What were all those people at Leeds station this morning Mr Harper. Scotch mist ?

 

[Peter Sarf]

Which means fewer maximum trains used at any one time, so plenty of cascading or scrapping.

Trouble is, those rush hour commuters are mostly in electric trains (many of them 3rd rail), with little prospect of further utilisation on the network.
They tried re-engineering the 319s into bi-modes, but it didn't work out.
There'll be some modest moves of AC-capable trains northwards for a handful of newly wired routes, otherwise it's scrap time.

And so even more competition for the unused 379s !.

It was a throw away comment in response to a loaded question about reforms, Sunday working etc. So it’s clearly in the government’s interest to downplay any recovery.

In London and the south east it is clearly coming back, albeit with less emphasis on traditional peaks.



Indeed. Similarly I don’t think many of the thousands of people I just saw at London Bridge wearing smart casual/formal office attire were coming back from a day at the beach!

I get the impression it is picking up Tuesday-Wednesday. The trains might be crowded BUT are they as long and as frequent as peaks were before Covid ?.

Really? that's a strange interpretation. More likely TOCs will make more targeted use of their fleets with less stock used during the peaks (if necessary) and more frequent / longer trains put in place for leisure travellers.

I think the reasoning is that if the peaks are using fewer trains then until the leisure demand exceeds (per hour) the pre Covid19 peak demand there will be spare trains.

Is that really the case, though? The traditional peak hours were such that there were certain things which could be done, such as run trains quickly back against the flow as ECS, precisely match length according to expected demand (which was generally constant from one day/week to the next), and also carry out a load of maintenance between the peaks.

Leisure demand is both less consistent and less predictable, so you can end up with longer formations having to run across the board and be out longer, so suddenly a significant amount of your maintenance is concentrated on the overnight period. The latter introduces its own problem as you now need more depot space and resource.

If you look at something like how Great Northern used to be arranged before 2018. The bulk of the outer suburban fleets (317/321/365) outstabled overnight at Kings Lynn, Cambridge, Peterborough and Letchworth, which only a comparatively small number of units staying overnight at a proper depot - Hornsey. By contrast, the inner suburban fleet (313) stabled a lot of units at Hornsey overnight, with a lesser proportion outstabled at Welwyn, Hertford and Letchworth. This was actually quite efficient, though did start to break down as rhe 2010s went on as more and more 365s spent the midday running as 8-car formations.

Personally I suspect over time commuting will return as more employers come to realise that not all employees are knuckling down to home working. My neighbour is a case in point, there’s clearly not much work going on given how much time he now spends gardening or walking into town!

Your right, there are all sorts of railway routines that will be up in the air if off peak demand rises enough. The irony is the dream was always to fill off peak trains and reduce peak demand.

From my conversations with various friends and colleagues I would say there are those who quickly went back to the office day to day, those who were desperate to get back and those who are very happy working from home. The lack of time and money spent commuting is an incentive to work from home but can counter that with the desire to socialise (at work) and increasingly save money on home heating. Remember these employees have experienced life outside the world of work and many are tempted it not like it is some unlikely aspiration. So common sense says employees (not all but many) are more reluctant to commute than they used to be and know it is possible.

I know of people whose employers have significantly downsized their office space so desk sharing is happening. I would expect employers to be more comfortable having their employees under their nose rather than distracted at home but there is a lot of overheads reduced for the employer. Makes me wonder how efficiently people worked in the office ?.

What ever happens in the near future (say ten years) it is obvious the genie is out of the bottle and no one rules out home working anymore.

If it takes ten years for demand for trains to recover to Pre Covid19 levels then a lot of stored trains will have become beyond re-use by then.

At the moment it seems there are not enough drivers to drive these trains that are being hung on to. How desperate does the DfT appear to be to fix that driver shortage ?. Conspiracy or not ?.

 

[nw1]

I'd like to see more honesty about the situation: "Unfortunately we believe we are unable to fund the railways properly right now, so expect short formations, standing and cancellations" - rather than making claims like commuting is not coming back.

But honesty? From a member of the Johnson, Truss or Sunak governments? No chance

Looking at the loadings coming into Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds I would hazard a guess Mr Mark Hapless MP has only considered trains heading into that place down south in his statement, and not the rest of the country.

Mark Hapless? Sounds like the cousin of Mark Reckless.

 

[newtownmgr]

The only quiet day for commuting seems to be Friday. I suspect a lot of people adopt the old ‘POETS’ day philosophy & work from home. Certainly commuting around Birmingham is very busy.

If you don’t know about ‘POETS’ day, ask a responsible adult, better still irresponsible adult

 

[Magdalia]

If you look at something like how Great Northern used to be arranged before 2018. The bulk of the outer suburban fleets (317/321/365) outstabled overnight at Kings Lynn, Cambridge, Peterborough and Letchworth, which only a comparatively small number of units staying overnight at a proper depot - Hornsey. By contrast, the inner suburban fleet (313) stabled a lot of units at Hornsey overnight, with a lesser proportion outstabled at Welwyn, Hertford and Letchworth. This was actually quite efficient, though did start to break down as rhe 2010s went on as more and more 365s spent the midday running as 8-car formations.

I have looked at the December 2015 timetable, the last before class 387s. There were 60 GN outer suburban unit diagrams, 38 for class 365, 12 for class 321 and 10 for class 317.

Of those only 29 worked all day SX, 21 went onto Hornsey between the peaks and 10 stabled elsewhere, mainly Welwyn Garden City.

On Saturdays 30 units worked all day, 10 were peak only and 20 units were spare.

On Sundays 25 units worked all day, 10 were peak only and 25 units were spare.

Roughly speaking, if the SX peak had been no bigger than the weekend peak, then only 40 units would have been required instead of 60. In particular, the class 317 and class 321 fleets were mostly idle at the weekends.

 

[12LDA28C]

I think the reasoning is that if the peaks are using fewer trains then until the leisure demand exceeds (per hour) the pre Covid19 peak demand there will be spare trains.

Spare trains in the peak possibly, but not so much during the day so just a reallocating of resources, not an overall requirement for less trains as some are suggesting.

 

[Peter Sarf]

The only quiet day for commuting seems to be Friday. I suspect a lot of people adopt the old ‘POETS’ day philosophy & work from home. Certainly commuting around Birmingham is very busy.

If you don’t know about ‘POETS’ day, ask a responsible adult, better still irresponsible adult

And Monday is apparently the day people are most likely to be off sick. So an HR friend told me they are always suspicious of people who are predominantly off sick on Mondays. I told him I prefer to be off sick for the whole week !.

Spare trains in the peak possibly, but not so much during the day so just a reallocating of resources, not an overall requirement for less trains as some are suggesting.

The same train/unit executes more than one service during the day. The trains used in the off peak are the same trains as those used during the peak but not all of the peak trains are used off peak. If less services are running in the peaks then less trains/units are needed in the peak. Now until the off peak services increase to the same level as the pre Covid19 peak there will trains/units sat around all day doing nothing.

 

[43096]

Spare trains in the peak possibly, but not so much during the day so just a reallocating of resources, not an overall requirement for less trains as some are suggesting.

It's called the peak for a reason! Maximum fleet requirement is during that period, so if the peak needs less trains then the overall required fleet is lower. So there will be a smaller number of trains needed.

 

[Bishopstone]

I find the railway more pleasant in every respect now the volume of commuting is down.

On the days I go into the office, I don’t miss the crush loading on Southern and Thameslink, and performance is better than pre-pandemic. It would be handy to have the Eastbourne-London Bridge peak extras back, but in honesty there is capacity on the Victoria services, and I wouldn’t be prepared to pay more for my ticket to fund a return of the LBG extras.

I’m old enough to remember pre-2020 posts suggesting commuters were inconveniencing the railway by herding into the big cities for 07.30-09.00 starts.

 

[185]

You only have to look at the many empty spaces in free station car parks that were full well before the end of the morning peak in 2019 to realise that.

That's probably due to 1L petrol catching up with the price of 1L of Scotch.

 

[Bikeman78]

I wonder what the huge throng of passengers is that gets off trains at Horsham around 6 pm weekdays if not commuters?

Or the people filling up nine car 345s such that it's very hard to get on after Ilford in the morning.