Coronavirus and Devolved Power in a Nation State

[WestCoast]

In an ideal world: we would have a situation where each large “island” like Britain is controlled under one government. Using a devolved system on an island like this has inevitably lead to differences in approach. Sturgeon and Drakeford want to be “the one who eliminated the novel coronavirus and saved the population”, although this may be political. Johnson seems to be using a “hammer and dance” approach, which essentially allows the virus to spread through the population whilst stopping any more serious outbreaks from occurring.

On an island like this, these differences in strategy are going to inevitably lead to problems, for instance Sturgeon threatening to close the border and Johnson dismissing this as “absurd”.

I'd be wanting that one Government not to be Westminster that's for sure, comparing the rates of Covid-19 infections between North West England and Scotland (or Wales). I still think it was absurd that the UK Government didn't restrict border movements into the UK back in March, that was a key part of why many other European countries have been more successful in fighting the virus.

 

[Huntergreed]

I'd be wanting that one Government not to be Westminster that's for sure, comparing the rates of Covid-19 infections between North West England and Scotland (or Wales).

This isn’t due to “bad governing” (although I’m not saying that there hasn’t been some), it’s due to a difference in strategy. In Scotland sturgeon wants to get it down to 0 deaths every day so she can say she eliminated it, in England they’re letting it circulate and only “locking down” places where transmission is high enough to have a risk of running out of control

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes potentially in the first months, although I now thought generally the new widsom on Covid-19 is that a local approach is best for containing the virus and that generally down to level of regional administrations.

I think local application and local policy are different, though. I would suggest policy (the trigger for a local lockdown and how one should work) should be a national matter, but it should be applied locally as needed. Local Councils don't really have the public health competence to deal with this sort of thing alone.

I'd be wanting that one Government not to be Westminster that's for sure, comparing the rates of Covid-19 infections between North West England and Scotland (or Wales).

In what manner is is sensible to compare a place that is mostly a fairly dense conurbation much more like outer London (plus a massive single tourist honeypot, i.e. the Lakes) with a pair of countries that are mostly fields of sheep and cows other than a few very built up areas and far more spread-out tourism? People don't realise just how urban North West England mostly is, at least south of and including Lancaster and Preston. It's a lot more urban than the South East commuter belt - massively so.

 

[WestCoast]

This isn’t due to “bad governing” (although I’m not saying that there hasn’t been some), it’s due to a difference in strategy. In Scotland sturgeon wants to get it down to 0 deaths every day so she can say she eliminated it, in England they’re letting it circulate and only “locking down” places where transmission is high enough to have a risk of running out of control

Timing is critical here and we could argue the mertis of each strategy, but if these are the approaches available, generally I think somewhere between the two could be best.

 

[WestCoast]

In what manner is is sensible to compare a place that is mostly a fairly dense conurbation much more like outer London (plus a massive single tourist honeypot, i.e. the Lakes) with a pair of countries that are mostly fields of sheep and cows other than a few very built up areas and far more spread-out tourism? People don't realise just how urban North West England mostly is, at least south of and including Lancaster and Preston. It's a lot more urban than the South East commuter belt - massively so.

No sheep and cows where I live in Scotland

Let's take Wales out of the picture because it's nothing like Scotland and without wandering off on a huge tangent are the two regions really so far apart? I mean depending on how you measure it between 70-80% of Scotland's population is in the Central Belt and most of that is concentrated in and around Greater Glasgow and Edinburgh/Lothians. i'm in Glasgow where we have 1.8 million in the metro area, is that hugely different to say Merseyside and Greater Manchester?

Edinburgh and Manchester are also the second and third most visited cities by tourists according to Visit Britain.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No sheep and cows where I live in Scotland

Let's take Wales out of the picture because it's nothing like Scotland and without wandering off on a huge tangent are the two regions really so far apart? I mean depending on how you measure it between 70-80% of Scotland's population is in the Central Belt and most of that is concentrated in and around Greater Glasgow and Edinburgh/Lothians. i'm in Glasgow where we have 1.8 million in the metro area, is that hugely different to say Merseyside and Greater Manchester?

Edinburgh and Manchester are also the second and third most visited cities by tourists according to Visit Britain.

You can probably compare the Central Belt to Liverpool and Manchester together, yes. But there's also the vast swathes of nothingness making up most of Scotland which will effectively skew the figures.

 

[WestCoast]

You can probably compare the Central Belt to Liverpool and Manchester together, yes. But there's also the vast swathes of nothingness making up most of Scotland which will effectively skew the figures.

I guess the only comparable way is per 100K of the population, but accepted geography will play a role in transmission as well as how effectively testing has been done for the figures to be of any use. Looking at the latest figures on the Guardian website, it's hard to say but as a very general trend urban areas in the Midlands and North of England are faring worse than in South East and South West of England as well as in Scotland. Drilling down on to the North West and Scotland stuff - Edinburgh is 366 per 100K, Glasgow is 388 per 100K, Manchester is 522 per 100K, Liverpool is 490 per 100K. If we look at border regions, Dumfries and Galloway is 184 per 100K, Cumbria is 534 per 100K - although the latter receives far more tourist traffic and has more urban areas.

 

[Ian Cunningham]

Regardless of any agenda by the devolved administration, I would say that reflects my opinion as an English person living in Scotland. Most people I have heard from outside these forums are generally supportive of the more cautious approach taken by ScotGov.

For instance, I really like the approach of some outdoor drinking spaces opening first on Monday and then once the public had their first draught pint of Tennent's or whatever, only then opening indoor spaces with precautions.

This also reflects my experience - overall the view seems to be take it gently, avoid (or minimise) the fabled Second Wave, avoid having to suddenly shut back down (which would be disastrous socially and economically) and have a sustainable path forward. Do it once, do it right
Nobody seems in any great rush to storm the pubs. Yes we desperately want to get out, see people, have a meal, get that next bit of normality back but the feeling seems to be- all in good time

Our local (multiple CAMRA award winning) pub in Musselburgh is still re-jigging it's beer garden and have said they won't open on the first day back and the reaction from the regulars has been very supportive. We want our pub back but only if it's done right - if it means a few days more waiting that's fine by us

There are a few loud voices on here that clearly have an anti-SNP / anti-indpendence agenda but I don't think this really reflects the overall mood here which is generally supportive of the Scottish Government's approach
A BBC Scotland poll in May put the FM's approval at +74 compared with the PM's on -25 (ScotGov +67, UKGov -17) Support for independence has also increased to about 55% - whether that remains is a different discussion

 

[6Gman]

I think local application and local policy are different, though. I would suggest policy (the trigger for a local lockdown and how one should work) should be a national matter, but it should be applied locally as needed. Local Councils don't really have the public health competence to deal with this sort of thing alone.

Sadly that is probably true these days but worth pointing out that Ceredigion - a small authority - managed to set up a very effective track and trace system very early in the outbreak. Entirely a local initiative. Which seems to have worked well.

 

[Llanigraham]

I think local application and local policy are different, though. I would suggest policy (the trigger for a local lockdown and how one should work) should be a national matter, but it should be applied locally as needed. Local Councils don't really have the public health competence to deal with this sort of thing alone.

In that case how come Ceredigion County Council set up their own "track and trace" system within days of the start of the epidemic, using nothing more than phones and emails, and have managed to keep their infection percentage figures one of the lowest in Wales?

 

[Bletchleyite]

In that case how come Ceredigion County Council set up their own "track and trace" system within days of the start of the epidemic, using nothing more than phones and emails, and have managed to keep their infection percentage figures one of the lowest in Wales?

One Council having that ability doesn't mean that all Councils have that ability. I'd certainly have grave doubts in MK Council having it, though ex-County unitaries like Bucks and traditional County Councils may have more chance.

 

[takno]

I think the Scottish governments approach was initially much the same rubbish as the rest of the country (albeit with a testing rate that was even worse than England's. We faced with a lot less challenges, and always had lower numbers given the lower prevalence at the point of lockdown. That means that we were far better positioned to safely open much earlier.

Instead Sturgeon has decided to be some kind of epic hero who took down the disease, and we've done massive extra damage to our economy, and our mental and physical health and education as a result. It's a few extra weeks that we'll still be paying for for years.

That said, it's absolutely the right of the Scottish government to make those decisions. That's what devolution is about. You don't get to dump your entire democratic system just because everyone is getting overexcited about a disease. I wish the Scottish government was better, but Boris has made a fair pig's ear of it in England as well, and I sure as hell don't see why he ought to therefore be allowed to make one big pig's ear of the whole UK.

I can only really hope that both hopeless self-serving jokes get kicked out of government as soon as democratically possible

 

[Richard Scott]

I think the Scottish governments approach was initially much the same rubbish as the rest of the country (albeit with a testing rate that was even worse than England's. We faced with a lot less challenges, and always had lower numbers given the lower prevalence at the point of lockdown. That means that we were far better positioned to safely open much earlier.

Instead Sturgeon has decided to be some kind of epic hero who took down the disease, and we've done massive extra damage to our economy, and our mental and physical health and education as a result. It's a few extra weeks that we'll still be paying for for years.

That said, it's absolutely the right of the Scottish government to make those decisions. That's what devolution is about. You don't get to dump your entire democratic system just because everyone is getting overexcited about a disease. I wish the Scottish government was better, but Boris has made a fair pig's ear of it in England as well, and I sure as hell don't see why he ought to therefore be allowed to make one big pig's ear of the whole UK.

I can only really hope that both hopeless self-serving jokes get kicked out of government as soon as democratically possible

And Drakeford as well, please. He's completely useless.

 

[Butts]

And Drakeford as well, please. He's completely useless.

The most boring Welsh Politician since the late "dead sheep" Geoffrey Howe

 

[oldman]

Instead Sturgeon has decided to be some kind of epic hero who took down the disease, and we've done massive extra damage to our economy, and our mental and physical health and education as a result. It's a few extra weeks that we'll still be paying for for years.

If (and it is if) it does work and, for example, schools are operating normally when they reopen next month, while English schools are faffing with year-bubbles and staggered hours, the economic and social benefits will be considerable, and there will be a chance to catch up.

Of course Sturgeon loves the attention and adulation, and no doubt dreams of all the statues and the streets named after her (so unlike the modest, self-effacing Johnson), but it doesn't rule out the possibility that the strategy may be right.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Of course Sturgeon loves the attention and adulation, and no doubt dreams of all the statues and the streets named after her (so unlike the modest, self-effacing Johnson), but it doesn't rule out the possibility that the strategy may be right.

"Why's this street named after a fish?"

 

[takno]

If (and it is if) it does work and, for example, schools are operating normally when they reopen next month, while English schools are faffing with year-bubbles and staggered hours, the economic and social benefits will be considerable, and there will be a chance to catch up.

Of course Sturgeon loves the attention and adulation, and no doubt dreams of all the statues and the streets named after her (so unlike the modest, self-effacing Johnson), but it doesn't rule out the possibility that the strategy may be right.

Scotland has had much lower levels of infection than the average in England all along (as indeed various regions of England have been much lower throughout). They have been able to keep the figures looking even lower in Scotland by hardly testing anyone. As a result of that, current levels in Scotland would not present any issues with reopening schools right now without restrictions.

If Scotland can safely reopen schools in a month without restrictions, it will be because infections were always lower and schools aren't particularly unsafe things to open. It will not be because Scotland spends the next month on Sturgeon's prescribed diet of self-flaggelation.

As to the insane bubbles plan in England, it's possible that a few deputy CMOs actually believe in it, but nobody who's ever been anywhere near a school thinks it will have any positive impact on preventing the spread in schools at all. I think that most likely it's just a holding plan that's been thrown up in June while people are still worrying, only to be quietly abandoned in August when everyone has had a bit of a holiday and consistently low death figures have got people less on edge.

 

[oldman]

I don't think we are 'a month' behind on the unlocking schedule, but we will see what happens. If there are some more Leicesters in the next few weeks, and the infection rate is still fairly high, then a real return to normality may prove difficult.

 

[takno]

I don't think we are 'a month' behind on the unlocking schedule, but we will see what happens. If there are some more Leicesters in the next few weeks, and the infection rate is still fairly high, then a real return to normality may prove difficult.

If Scotland were just behind on unlocking I'd have fewer issues. It's the new imposition of facemasks on environments which have been open throughout, with no clear value and therefore no clear end date, that is utterly devoid of sanity. Neither country has an infection rate which is particularly concerning in a European context, and it isn't climbing from levels similar to ours in countries which have far fewer controls in place.

In the UK we are all to an extent locking ourselves down more than is necessary, partly in some sense to punish ourselves for what we insist on seeing as some kind of moral failure in our initial reaction. It's just that when the UK starts playing that game, Scotland always seems to find a way to win it. It's not one of Scotland's more appealing characteristics, but as a nation Scotland absolutely has a right to elect a government which reflects the national psyche

 

[haggishunter]

As a result of that, current levels in Scotland would not present any issues with reopening schools right now without restrictions.

Except it's the school holidays!

On a more serious note, what is happening in Victoria with Melbourne going back into full lockdown for 6 weeks and the NSW/Victoria border closing is something of a worry as they are heading towards thermal mid-winter for them - coldest weather tends to be late July / Early August. Given we're at a much higher latitude with significantly more unsettled weather, it does present an additional worry that it will be all too easy for Covid to explode out of control in late autumn.

 

[takno]

Except it's the school holidays!

On a more serious note, what is happening in Victoria with Melbourne going back into full lockdown for 6 weeks and the NSW/Victoria border closing is something of a worry as they are heading towards thermal mid-winter for them - coldest weather tends to be late July / Early August. Given we're at a much higher latitude with significantly more unsettled weather, it does present an additional worry that it will be all too easy for Covid to explode out of control in late autumn.

That's certainly one possible takeaway, although it's still only just below current Scottish temperatures there right now, so arguably there isn't a whole lot of comparison. It's also really still first wave for them, since they were so successful at preventing the spread to start with, which will leave them with very little exposure and not much to slow the spread. In Scotland we could well be looking at over 20% of the population having already gained some form of resistance, and a huge proportion of the most vulnerable already having been exposed for better or worse over the spring and summer. I would be more concerned about what will happen in North European countries which had successful policies of locking down early and hard.

Obviously none of that gives me a huge amount of confidence that our political leadership won't get ahead of themselves with punishing extra lockdowns and some kind of showy attempt at internal borders.