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Could GB railways return to profit?

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HSTEd

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12 coach commuters running all day, but empty / infrequently at some hours may not be the long term solution. It might be the 4 coach commuter, running all day is what may be more appropriate.

It would be more likely that you would get lashups of shorter units that are still full length, running all day.

Easier and more attractive to customers to run Thameslink and Crossrail hard and run down services to the termini than vice versa.
 
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zwk500

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Does anyone know what the current average ticket cost is?

Earlier, someone suggested about £7?
Even if it is possible to arrive at a figure (per pasenger? per KM?), what use is that answer? To reduce the subsidy required the railway needs to maximise the revenue, which will ivolve lowering some ticket prices while increasing others.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Did GB railways ever make a profit?
BR made a paper profit until, I think, 1958.
It then sank rapidly into loss over the next 5 years which is why Beeching was hired.
By then the 1948 nationalised transport edifice had been largely dismantled and semi-privatised (road freight, buses, airlines, ferries etc).
The railway had lost the plot as to where its costs went, was unable to match them to reducing demand, and could not downsize its operations quickly enough.

Some of the pre-nationalisation private companies made a profit but were all under heavy government control from 1914 in terms of what they could charge.
By then it was very much a cost-plus industry, much as it is now under the current ERMA contracts.
It could never really afford modernisation and recapitalisation costs after WW1.
 

Deepgreen

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The railway cannot make a genuine commercial profit, which is one of the two fundamental reasons why privatisation is a sham - the other is the lack of genuine competition on almost all routes.
 

urbophile

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I'm no economist, but I would have thought the question is irrelevant. Do schools make a profit? Does the NHS? Do sewers? And a closer comparison, do roads? Like the railways, all are part of the necessary infrastructure of a civilised society. If bits of these systems are being hived off to the private sector, someone (ie the state, the taxpayer, the community) is going to have to pick up the rest.
 

Deepgreen

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The railways have never made a profit. That’s why Beeching came about.
That's not why 'Beeching' happened - it was a combination of many factors, of which the largest was probably the rise in post-war car ownership making many routes seemingly surplus to requirements - the rise of the car was seen to be the future, and social and environmental considerations were well in the future in the early 1960s. The more extreme pro-Beeching advocates also talked of paving over main lines to increase motorway provision, car space, etc. as recently as the 1990s. The Inter-City sector of BR made an operating surplus in, I think, 1994, just before privatisation.
 

coppercapped

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The railways have never made a profit. That’s why Beeching came about.
The 'railways' were profitable, that is they returned a dividend (to the shareholders until 1948 and to the Government after that date), until the early 1950s. However for their longer term survival the return on capital would have had to have been greater than that pertaining at the end of the 1930s, when the 'Big Four' were making about 2% to 2.5%, in order to attract investment capital.

British Railways ceased making sufficient money to pay the interest on the Government's Transport Bonds by about 1952 and operational expenditure was greater than income by about 1954/5. After that BR was kept afloat by Government loans.

Dr Beeching was appointed because the gap between income and expenditure was widening by the year and the expenditure on the 1955 Modernisation Plan had no effect on the financial results.
 

Watershed

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But then what modes of transport actually make a profit?
They generally fall into one or more of the following categories:
  • Those which are extremely efficient - e.g. the Tube at the high peak (pre-Covid), and many Japanese/Hong Kong railways
  • Those which do not have to (fully) pay for their societal costs, i.e. most road and air services (carbon, pollution and congestion is not remotely close to being fully 'costed')
  • Those with an absolute or effective monopoly on their market
 

Bald Rick

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Not the first time you've mentioned earning less money. Do you think pay cuts are on the agenda?

In my opinion no. But it will be pretty difficult to get a pay rise (if nurses are getting 1%, and the civil service nothing...).


I'm no economist, but I would have thought the question is irrelevant. Do schools make a profit? Does the NHS? Do sewers? And a closer comparison, do roads? Like the railways, all are part of the necessary infrastructure of a civilised society.

How about some other essential services, like water (including sewers!), electricity, post, telecoms, food supply, provision of accommodation, etc etc...
 

JamesT

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I was under the impression that pre-Covid, UK railways essentially covered their operating costs from their revenues and government support was effectively for investment in new capital projects. Is that correct? As that seems like breaking even if we're talking about 'making a profit'.
 

Horizon22

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If we are interested in the "best value for society" railway, it appears likely that we should attempt to drive volume however possible. Rail is, after all, a bulk transport system.

It is worth noting that well over 10% of rail journeys in the old world were made on London Overground, and they have rebounded faster than the whole.
I may be wildly wide of the mark, but I doubt London Overground consumed 10% of the railway's operational resources to achieve this.

Merseyrails performance is not as good but still better than the overall railway.

Of course London & SE TOCs have generally made up for the rest of the industry and in effect if you were to treat them individually make "a profit" (including any subsidy). The big risk is how much of that demand continues. It may be that other Regional or Intercity TOCs see less of a fall in overally passenger numbers but, respectively, that will make little difference to passenger numbers.

There are of course lots of caveats around this - for instance many commuter TOCs relied on season tickets which are relatively cheaper than your one-off long-distance traveller not on advance - but it still has to be a big concern. To what extent will those people from Oxford, Sevenoaks, Chelmsford, Guildford and St Albans return regularly to the office? It's still a big unknown.

There are other threads about this but the railway has to effectively pivot to a leisure market, but there's no guarantee that will work effectively on current ticketing prices and requires something of a culture shift across all aspects of the industry as in recent years everything from timetables to rolling stock to staff has been mostly focussed around commuters.
 

Watershed

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I was under the impression that pre-Covid, UK railways essentially covered their operating costs from their revenues and government support was effectively for investment in new capital projects. Is that correct? As that seems like breaking even if we're talking about 'making a profit'.
The franchise premiums from the profitable TOCs more or less covered the subsidies for the unprofitable TOCs, yes.

However, the rather large factor missing from the equation is the subsidy given to Network Rail.

Track access charges are set significantly below the full economic cost of maintaining and repairing routes, so the terms "profitable TOC" and "unprofitable TOC" are somewhat unhelpful.

NR subsidy ran at about £4bn a year pre-Covid, and that excludes improvements (which have long been separately costed and funded).
 

Randomer

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I'm pretty sure they did, in the "Golden Era" and before then (ie: before 1930).
The railways pre World War 1 were generally profitable. Some more than others with a gradual movement towards larger companies absorbing smaller ones, there were over a hundred companies only the biggest made real profits and consistently returned dividends. However, the majority of this profit was in freight and a minority of passenger lines again concentrated on the bigger companies.

As a very general statement freight paid the bills for the smaller railway companies with express passenger services being a factor for the largest companies but not necessarily the main one.

The governments refusal to pay the railway companies the actual costs of the efforts made in World War 1 (it only paid at the 1914 rates for the whole war despite pretty serious inflation and running cost increases along with centralised control up until 1921 which made cutting unprofitable lines much harder) is one of the factors that brought about forced grouping.

Without a substantial modal shift back to rail freight railways as a whole are unlikely to ever become profitable again. Then you start to look at what would happen to pathing and infrastructure costs if the small amount of freight traffic currently even doubled, which would be less than 10% of timetabled trains.

How about some other essential services, like water (including sewers!), electricity, post, telecoms, food supply, provision of accommodation, etc etc...

I acknowledge I'm cherry picking an example but the majority of water supply in Wales is ran by a non-profit company and is substantially the same price as elsewhere within GB. You could argue that there is a compelling government interest in controlling the running of any essential utility. Certainly they are very strongly regulated in a way that "non essential" businesses are not.

I was under the impression that pre-Covid, UK railways essentially covered their operating costs from their revenues and government support was effectively for investment in new capital projects. Is that correct?

No not really. Some companies returned a premium to the DfT as part of franchise agreements but these were effectively used to subsidise other "unprofitable"* TOC with operating subsidies ( * the TOC still made a small profit but that was due to the government subsidy). Essentially commuters in the South East along with some intercity services helped pay for services in other parts of the country. Even then it wasn't a break even proposition. Taking a wider view I'd argue that essentially the position was relatively unchanged from the early 90's BR finances; NSE and Intercity helped subsidise Regional Railways. Now the picture is murkier with parts of some TOC cross-subsidising themselves having picked up a mix of "intercity", "commuter" and "regional" routes if you look at Greater Anglia for example.

However, even pre-Covid and excluding HS2 the railways were in real terms costing more than BR did in the early 1990's both in real terms with inflation or looked at as a percentage of government spending. It's just that the way money is split between payments to TOC, Network Rail for ongoing costs and Network Rail for capital projects is although much more "open" in terms of information much more opaque when looking for a headline figure.
 

dctraindriver

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In my opinion no. But it will be pretty difficult to get a pay rise (if nurses are getting 1%, and the civil service nothing...).
I can't talk for others as circumstances vary for all of us but I would certainly be fine with that.
 

quantinghome

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The franchise premiums from the profitable TOCs more or less covered the subsidies for the unprofitable TOCs, yes.

However, the rather large factor missing from the equation is the subsidy given to Network Rail.

Track access charges are set far below the full economic cost of maintaining and repairing routes. NR subsidy ran at about £4bn a year pre-Covid, and that excludes improvements (which have long been separately costed and funded).
Also a great deal of capital spending would be necessary simply to ensure the service continues in the long term rather than being a genuine enhancement. New trains, signalling, station buildings, depots, bridge structures is all part of the cost of keeping the railways as a going concern.
 

kevin_roche

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Item on radio 4 PM this evening in which they had done a survey of people working from home and a lot were train travellers before Covid.
 

Watershed

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Also a great deal of capital spending would be necessary simply to ensure the service continues in the long term rather than being a genuine enhancement. New trains, signalling, station buildings, depots, bridge structures is all part of the cost of keeping the railways as a going concern.
That's true. I suppose one minor benefit of the whole 'leasing trains' concept is that it effectively makes trains an opex, rather than a capex cost. Of course, that's like buying the trains on a credit card, and then paying the balance off over 15-30 years!
 

tbtc

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Let me rephrase the question - should the railways strive to make a profit on the DfT's books alone, or should we take the wider benefits into account? If we compare the railways to the NHS, we don't look at profitability in money-in money-out terms, but as a public service with wide reaching social and economic benefits. These aren't impossible to quantify, and you could "balance the books" this way instead

You mean you'd quantify the "social and economic" benefits of the railway so it coincidently wipes out all of the debts?

But should you even do that? There are a whole host of branch lines and little used services and stations that wouldn't even turn a "profit" on the broadest of metrics. Most of Northern Rail, ScotRail, and Transport for Wales, as well as smaller patches of nearly every other operator would have to close and the lines would have to be mothballed. Is that anything anybody wants to see? What's the "value" of something irreplacable?

My answer to the question is "It probably could, but it definitely shouldn't".

If services/ stations/ lines are so lightly used that passengers numbers aren't even enough to justify a minibus service then I'd argue that heavy rail is an incredibly blunt/expensive way of providing that service

What's the alternative? That we are stuck serving markets that were still pitifully small even in 2019 - if the numbers were still low after a generation of regular growth then maybe we just a accept that they are never going to be busy, and spend the money elsewhere?

I'm no economist, but I would have thought the question is irrelevant. Do schools make a profit? Does the NHS? Do sewers? And a closer comparison, do roads? Like the railways, all are part of the necessary infrastructure of a civilised society. If bits of these systems are being hived off to the private sector, someone (ie the state, the taxpayer, the community) is going to have to pick up the rest.

The railway cannot make a genuine commercial profit, which is one of the two fundamental reasons why privatisation is a sham

That's no reason to stop privatising something - councils privatise their bin lorries - offices privatise their cleaners - pubs hire in Bouncers from private security firms - Yorkshire Water are a private company who look after my sewers - if you can get a provider to perform a service cheaper than it currently costs the state then it's worth investigating

If our gas and electricity and telephone networks are in private hands then why can't a railway line be contracted out?

(things can be "regulated" without being wholly public owned/oeprated)
 

quantinghome

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Item on radio 4 PM this evening in which they had done a survey of people working from home and a lot were train travellers before Covid.
Naturally they will be. But given it's only talking to people currently WFH it says nothing about what proportion of people who previously commuted now WFH.

Clearly travel has returned - the roads are full. As (we hope) things return to normal, people will come back to public transport.
 

NoRoute

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I think a big part of the challenge is finding a way to reform the railway industry to bring in more competitive pressures to drive down costs, you only need to look at the horrific cost of projects like East-West Rail and HS2 to see that costs seem to be completely out of control.

There needs to be competition in operation and maintenance of the network, Network Rail needs breaking up. There needs to be at least 2, possibly even 3 separate organisations running infrastructure on mainline routes to allow benchmarking and the introduction of competitive processes for the long-term operation and maintenance of mainline routes.
 

Carlisle

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I think a big part of the challenge is finding a way to reform the railway industry to bring in more competitive pressures to drive down costs, you only need to look at the horrific cost of projects like East-West Rail and HS2 to see that costs seem to be completely out of control.
Isn’t the above far more linked to the construction industry & how its relevant contracts are negotiated & managed .
 

ABB125

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There needs to be competition in operation and maintenance of the network, Network Rail needs breaking up. There needs to be at least 2, possibly even 3 separate organisations running infrastructure on mainline routes to allow benchmarking and the introduction of competitive processes for the long-term operation and maintenance of mainline routes.
Hasn't that sort-of already happened, with the creation of separate regions within Network Rail?
 

NoRoute

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Hasn't that sort-of already happened, with the creation of separate regions within Network Rail?
Is there any competition? Can a better performing region take-over the running of lines within another region? Do the regions compete against each other for the rights to run routes, or have the flexibility to re-write processes, specifications, engineering standards to introduce new innovations, practices, drive down costs?
 

ABB125

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Is there any competition? Can a better performing region take-over the running of lines within another region? Do the regions compete against each other for the rights to run routes, or have the flexibility to re-write processes, specifications, engineering standards to introduce new innovations, practices, drive down costs?
I'm by no means an expert on this, but I seem to remember reading that one of the reasons for the restructure was to enable competition between regions, and possibly allow the regions to try new things which, if successful, other regions could implement.
 

Annetts key

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If services/ stations/ lines are so lightly used that passengers numbers aren't even enough to justify a minibus service then I'd argue that heavy rail is an incredibly blunt/expensive way of providing that service
Does that mean that I will no longer have my late night train all to myself any more? o_O:frown:

That's no reason to stop privatising something - councils privatise their bin lorries - offices privatise their cleaners - pubs hire in Bouncers from private security firms - Yorkshire Water are a private company who look after my sewers - if you can get a provider to perform a service cheaper than it currently costs the state then it's worth investigating

If our gas and electricity and telephone networks are in private hands then why can't a railway line be contracted out?
Maybe, but our local council have ended the commercial contract with the private company and are taking the waste and recycling services back in house. And no, it’s not a Labour controlled council either.
The status of cleaners has changed a bit since COVID19. I don’t know what the longer term will bring though.

Bristol Water has never been anything other than a private company, but it’s regulated. So it does not have the final say in the prices it charges. Also it has a captive market. As a customer, you have have the choice to use the water from the private company, or not to have mains water. No one knows if a state owned company could provide the service at or below the cost that the private company charges.

Mains gas, electricity and telephone provision is not essential. And most people do have a choice on which companies provide the billing services for mains gas and electricity. Although the actual distribution company that provides and maintains the infrastructure to pipe the gas and for the electricity cabling, distribution networks and substations are completely different private companies, which again a customer normally has no choice. It’s another captive market even if there is no direct payment between the house holder and the distribution company. It’s rather difficult to make a loss if you have a more or less fixed customer base...

So just like the railways, IMHO, it’s a fudge.

I think a big part of the challenge is finding a way to reform the railway industry to bring in more competitive pressures to drive down costs, you only need to look at the horrific cost of projects like East-West Rail and HS2 to see that costs seem to be completely out of control.

There needs to be competition in operation and maintenance of the network, Network Rail needs breaking up. There needs to be at least 2, possibly even 3 separate organisations running infrastructure on mainline routes to allow benchmarking and the introduction of competitive processes for the long-term operation and maintenance of mainline routes.
We had that nonsense before under Railtrack. It hired many different contractors and sub contractors to carry out all the work. Both maintenance, renewals and investment works.
We had a staff travelling hundreds of miles north to do one job, while another group doing very similar work would travel hundreds of miles south... Or similar east/west.

And heaven help you if your company found they did not have a suitable spare component/equipment that was required to fix a major failure. As the competition would not help you out (unlike now where internally we help out between different areas).

And the contact companies and their staff would know exactly what was required in the contract, so would refuse point blank to do anything beyond those requirements. So if more than one contractor was involved, there would be a lot of waiting around if anything did not work exactly to plan. And unfortunately things going wrong was more common than things going to plan. So lots of staff standing around doing nothing.

The contractors would only get paid if Railtrack got all the correct documentation. So more effort went into the paperwork than actually doing the work...
Network Rail looked at this expensive and inefficient system and decided to take maintenance in-house. It’s definitely reduced costs.

Splitting up Network Rail is not the solution. And you don’t really want to use competitive pressures to drive down costs for safety critical work or time sensitive engineering work. Unless you want rest a nasty failure or worse. Or to re-do the work all over again at a later date...

And if you do go back to using contractors again, whichever company is responsible for the running and safety of the infrastructure will have to hire a new army of management and engineering staff to arrange the contacts and provide oversight and try to carry out quality control. This is very difficult when the work place extends for hundreds and hundreds of miles...

Is there any competition? Can a better performing region take-over the running of lines within another region? Do the regions compete against each other for the rights to run routes, or have the flexibility to re-write processes, specifications, engineering standards to introduce new innovations, practices, drive down costs?
Standards are the same across the whole of the Network Rail controlled infrastructure. For good reason. For both safety and so that best practice is used everywhere.

No there is no competition between different routes.

Network Rail does not run passenger or freight trains. That’s what the train operating companies (TOCs) and freight operating companies (FOCs) do. The freight companies do compete with each other. But the majority of TOCs don’t, because that is the deliberate way that the franchises were set up.

The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) is the regulator for all of the above.
 
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NoRoute

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We had that nonsense before under Railtrack. It hired many different contractors and sub contractors to carry out all the work. Both maintenance, renewals and investment works.
We had a staff travelling hundreds of miles north to do one job, while another group doing very similar work would travel hundreds of miles south... Or similar east/west.
I didn't say that these organisations had to contract out the work, just that given the size of the rail industry and the amount of public money being spent, it is too important to rely on a single organisation, under no competitive pressure, delivering the bulk of the UK rail infrastructure. Having multiple organisations allows for them to diverge, to try different processes, practices, innovations and it allows competition between them to drive out efficiencies.

There's nothing new about this, this is the way the railways started, different companies running routes all innovating. It was only under nationalisation that they were all brought into a single, organisation. And as has been found in every other industry, nationalisation is a bad way of delivering things, the organisations get big and inefficient.

And you don’t really want to use competitive pressures to drive down costs for safety critical work or time sensitive engineering work. Unless you want rest a nasty failure or worse. Or to re-do the work all over again at a later date...

Do you ever fly anywhere? You can't get much more safety critical than the operation and maintenance of an airplane, yet the airline, the airplane manufacturer, the jet engine manufacturer, the maintenance company are all subject to competition and yet flying is one of the safest forms of transport and very affordable. So competition doesn't result in poor safety, any more than lack of competition guarantees safety. And it's only because they are subject to competition that flying is affordable, back in the days of nationalised airlines flying was very expensive, it was only competition which introduced innovations in the way airlines operated which made it affordable.
 

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Do you ever fly anywhere? You can't get much more safety critical than the operation and maintenance of an airplane, yet the airline, the airplane manufacturer, the jet engine manufacturer, the maintenance company are all subject to competition and yet flying is one of the safest forms of transport and very affordable. So competition doesn't result in poor safety, any more than lack of competition guarantees safety. And it's only because they are subject to competition that flying is affordable, back in the days of nationalised airlines flying was very expensive, it was only competition which introduced innovations in the way airlines operated which made it affordable.
Yes, I have been on aircraft in the past. And been on one where it diverted after two goes at trying to land, but could not due to poor weather

But there are substantial differences. Each aircraft or airplane is a completely separate machine. The aircraft manufacturer lays down very precise requirements for operation, maintenance and repair work.

And some things are required to meet certain standards that are set by the various regulators around the world, who often work together. You know, for safety and best practice...

There is very little interface between each aircraft or airplane, and it’s slightly more complex, but not that much between an aircraft or airplane and air traffic control, the airport tower and the runway. And where there are communication systems between them, that’s all detailed in international standards.

Further, it’s possible to take a complete aircraft or airplane out of service. Or to take a runway out of service. Yes you can take a train out of service, but it’s not as straightforward to take a signalling system out of service, a OHL system out of service or the track out of service. Because it affects substantial numbers of trains.

With modern railways, the trains, the track, the signalling, the OHL all closely interact with each other. And the last thing you want is a mistake when travelling at 125 MPH.

And it has taken many, many years for the current level of aircraft or airplane safety to reach it’s current levels oreliability and safety.

There are still enough air accidents for there to be a regular documentary series about them (that has been running for many years now). There is no similar regular documentary series about railway accidents.

Anyway, if you are dead set on competition, should the same not apply to the road network? Or government departments? Or the border force. Or various other government agencies like the highways agency, driving test centres, tax office...

It’s clear that it’s unlikely that we will agree.
 

5ArchBridge

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You mean you'd quantify the "social and economic" benefits of the railway so it coincidently wipes out all of the debts?



If services/ stations/ lines are so lightly used that passengers numbers aren't even enough to justify a minibus service then I'd argue that heavy rail is an incredibly blunt/expensive way of providing that service

What's the alternative? That we are stuck serving markets that were still pitifully small even in 2019 - if the numbers were still low after a generation of regular growth then maybe we just a accept that they are never going to be busy, and spend the money elsewhere?





That's no reason to stop privatising something - councils privatise their bin lorries - offices privatise their cleaners - pubs hire in Bouncers from private security firms - Yorkshire Water are a private company who look after my sewers - if you can get a provider to perform a service cheaper than it currently costs the state then it's worth investigating

If our gas and electricity and telephone networks are in private hands then why can't a railway line be contracted out?

(things can be "regulated" without being wholly public owned/oeprated)
Although a lot of public bodies are finding out years down the line, it’s costing more. A couple of adjacent councils to my local council area are ‘insourcing’ the services they privatised, purely for cost and flexibility reasons.

Isn’t it true (pre-covid) the ECML franchise, post privatisation, has performed the best financially whilst it’s been under public ownership (East Coast and LNER)? I wonder if there’s any other examples of this...
Railways should be government owned in my opinion, I mean look at how many other countries are then their companies run TOC’s in the Uk.

Yes I believe the railways could return to profit, if nationalisation returned and more freight was moved from being carried by road to rail.
 

scrapy

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If unprofitable services such as Northern didn't provide feeder services then then it's unlikely either the East or West Coast mainlines would be profitable either.
 
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