Could Grand Union Trains proposed London Euston to Stirling service be viable?

[geoffk]

Not the right time to be planning yet more long-distance services with a major restructuring of the railways coming and depressed patronage post-Covid. Same applies to First East Coast Trains, in fact all the open-access proposals. (I don't include Grand Central or Hull Trains as these are offering links not otherwise provided). Where are the paths south of Carlisle? A Stirling - Carlisle semi-fast perhaps, using some of the surplus class 365s already used in Scotland!

 

[Roast Veg]

Not the right time to be planning yet more long-distance services with a major restructuring of the railways coming and depressed patronage post-Covid. Same applies to First East Coast Trains, in fact all the open-access proposals.

I disagree. Now is the time to invest in change while the general public is learning how best to get from A to B again. Not planning for the future now is how we end up with a system bursting at the seams post-recovery.

Goodness me though why not get this out to Dundee.

 

[The Planner]

Not the right time to be planning yet more long-distance services with a major restructuring of the railways coming and depressed patronage post-Covid. Same applies to First East Coast Trains, in fact all the open-access proposals. (I don't include Grand Central or Hull Trains as these are offering links not otherwise provided). Where are the paths south of Carlisle? A Stirling - Carlisle semi-fast perhaps, using some of the surplus class 365s already used in Scotland!

It wouldnt have got as fas as it has without paths being found, remember that GC had them to Blackpool.

 

[JonathanH]

A Stirling - Carlisle semi-fast perhaps, using some of the surplus class 365s already used in Scotland!

I think it can be guaranteed that that would be moving fresh air or losing money or both.

 

[KJ83]

Not the right time to be planning yet more long-distance services with a major restructuring of the railways coming and depressed patronage post-Covid. Same applies to First East Coast Trains, in fact all the open-access proposals. (I don't include Grand Central or Hull Trains as these are offering links not otherwise provided). Where are the paths south of Carlisle? A Stirling - Carlisle semi-fast perhaps, using some of the surplus class 365s already used in Scotland!

Disagree with you totally... now is the time! OAO can pick up the slack with some of the cut backs by franchise. We're still not fully out of the woods yet and the railway is coming back quite nicely with the leisure market.

if its anything like First groups new OAO the paths were applied for and granted years ago.

 

[cle]

Stirling to Carlisle is a train from nowhere to nowhere. Who would use that? Circumventing the actual destination.

Stirling/Falkirk to Cumbernauld and Motherwell at a push might be useful, for Glasgow avoiding, in future - to feed route to London, Birmingham and Manchester. But I can't see it really - and Stirling passengers can use Haymarket (both ways) and Edinburgh of course - to head south.

 

[JonathanH]

Disagree with you totally... now is the time! OAO can pick up the slack with some of the cut backs by franchise. We're still not fully out of the woods yet and the railway is coming back quite nicely with the leisure market.

That doesn't make sense - if the franchised railway is losing money, why is an open access operator going to be viable? The franchised operator is cutting back to reduce the amount of taxpayer support needed. If an open access operator can make money, they are either cherrypicking or don't have the same costs.

No matter how much the leisure market recovers, the railway needs somebody to be paying the higher peak-time fares[1]. Two ways to do that are to get back the higher value custom or charge off-peak passengers more.

[1] Someone is going to challenge that by saying that season ticket holders were getting big discounts but they weren't the only peak time travellers.

 

[Roast Veg]

That doesn't make sense - if the franchised railway is losing money, why is an open access operator going to be viable? The franchised operator is cutting back to reduce the amount of taxpayer support needed. If an open access operator can make money, they are either cherrypicking or don't have the same costs.

An OAO will live or die by a handful of services per day, so they go for the individually profitable ones that don't already exist. A bigger operator doesn't because they can't expand their services with the resources they have, and it'll barely make a dent in their margins.

 

[Bald Rick]

and it'll barely make a dent in their margins.

The thing is it isn’t “their margins”

The dent is made in “our taxes”

 

[Meerkat]

The thing is it isn’t “their margins”

The dent is made in “our taxes”

Then pull some competing subsidised services - they aren’t needed if the market can do it……unless you approve of the taxpayer price gouging train passengers.

 

[JonathanH]

Then pull some competing subsidised services - they aren’t needed if the market can do it……unless you approve of the taxpayer price gouging train passengers.

Isn't the point that the market can't do it whilst also providing 'socially necessary' services? Are you suggesting that 'private operators cream off the profits' while the franchised operator fills the gaps with taxpayer subsidy?

I'm certainly not trying to suggest that open access is bad but there seems to be a paradox that money made by open access operators are 'acceptable' while profits made by franchised operators are 'taking money out of the system'. Mind you realistically, I guess the point is that neither is likely at the current time.

 

[43096]

Then pull some competing subsidised services - they aren’t needed if the market can do it……unless you approve of the taxpayer price gouging train passengers.

And if the "compulsory reservation" nonsense that LNER has started becomes common across all the long distance services, it's time to cut back the franchised services and offer open access operators the chance instead, as it makes no difference to the punter in terms of choice of service.

 

[StephenHunter]

I'd definitely be interested in compartments. One of my favourite things on Mark 1 stock.

 

[Meerkat]

Isn't the point that the market can't do it whilst also providing 'socially necessary' services? Are you suggesting that 'private operators cream off the profits' while the franchised operator fills the gaps with taxpayer subsidy?

I'm certainly not trying to suggest that open access is bad but there seems to be a paradox that money made by open access operators are 'acceptable' while profits made by franchised operators are 'taking money out of the system'. Mind you realistically, I guess the point is that neither is likely at the current time.

Yes I am suggesting that. I hate cross subsidy hiding what the taxpayer is paying for, or passengers subsidising other passengers rather than general taxation doing it. But continuing an argument about that would be for a new topic, and would be going over well trodden ground!
But getting back to this latest bid - do they have to pay meaningful track access charges now or still just marginal cost?

 

[Bald Rick]

Then pull some competing subsidised services - they aren’t needed if the market can do it……unless you approve of the taxpayer price gouging train passengers.

But they are subsidised because of a non-level playing field....

But getting back to this latest bid - do they have to pay meaningful track access charges now or still just marginal cost?

Marginal cost.

 

[swt_passenger]

I'm sure I posted the correct link tho here

That’s still going to an old LNER story about “Ladies and Gentlemen”…

 

[ScotsRail]

Anyway,

interesting, for me, to see that they are also still planning the Stirling to London route for 2023.

Stirling to London - Grand Union Trains Ltd

As our second proposed open access route in the UK, we are planning to introduce a new service between Stirling and London along the West Coast Main Line during 2025. This service will transform the connectivity of a whole range of significant and rapidly changing Scottish towns along the...

www.granduniontrains.co.uk

Honestly thought this had been back burnered following the pandemic - could be interesting if it ever actually does happen.

Greenfaulds instead of Cumbernauld seems odd - is that because Greenfaulds has a car park?

 

[AlastairFraser]

Anyway,

interesting, for me, to see that they are also still planning the Stirling to London route for 2023.

Stirling to London - Grand Union Trains Ltd

As our second proposed open access route in the UK, we are planning to introduce a new service between Stirling and London along the West Coast Main Line during 2025. This service will transform the connectivity of a whole range of significant and rapidly changing Scottish towns along the...

www.granduniontrains.co.uk

Honestly thought this had been back burnered following the pandemic - could be interesting if it ever actually does happen.

Greenfaulds instead of Cumbernauld seems odd - is that because Greenfaulds has a car park?

Closer to a motorway link too, plus a less used stations perhaps meaning less abstraction and/or abstract charges? Also new links in there, Southern Scotland and M6 traffic could jump off at Lockerbie, park up and save time up to Stirling and further north quite easily now without having to enter an urban area and get stuck in congestion.

 

[Some guy]

Stirling to London - Grand Union Trains Ltd

As our second proposed open access route in the UK, we are planning to introduce a new service between Stirling and London along the West Coast Main Line during 2025. This service will transform the connectivity of a whole range of significant and rapidly changing Scottish towns along the...

www.granduniontrains.co.uk

Honestly thought this had been back burnered following the pandemic - could be interesting if it ever actually does happen.

Greenfaulds instead of Cumbernauld seems odd - is that because Greenfaulds has a car park?

It would be brilliant if ORR allows it. The WCML has been needing competition(open access operator) for a long time. It would be very popular if it goes ahead and Glasgow passengers can still take this to Motherwell just for a quick change into Glasgow

 

[JonathanH]

The WCML has been needing competition(open access operator) for a long time.

There are secondary operators all the way along the WCML (except between Crewe and Wigan).

It would be very popular if it goes ahead and Glasgow passengers can still take this to Motherwell just for a quick change into Glasgow

I'm pretty sure they wouldn't do that. The stations on the East side of Glasgow would need to firmly be seen as a 'Glasgow Parkway' to generate custom.

 

[Some guy]

There are secondary operators all the way along the WCML (except between Crewe and Wigan).

The northern WCML is a first group monopoly. There has never been an OA operator. As grand central was canned.

 

[paul1609]

Closer to a motorway link too, plus a less used stations perhaps meaning less abstraction and/or abstract charges? Also new links in there, Southern Scotland and M6 traffic could jump off at Lockerbie, park up and save time up to Stirling and further north quite easily now without having to enter an urban area and get stuck in congestion.

Lockerbie to Stirling is 86 miles all on motorway takes around 1h20 by car. I'd suggest that the number of non rail enthusiast motorists turning off the m74 at Lockerbie to catch a 4 tpd service to park and ride to Stirling is zero.

 

[Speed43125]

interesting, for me, to see that they are also still planning the Stirling to London route for 2023.

Stirling to London - Grand Union Trains Ltd

As our second proposed open access route in the UK, we are planning to introduce a new service between Stirling and London along the West Coast Main Line during 2025. This service will transform the connectivity of a whole range of significant and rapidly changing Scottish towns along the...

www.granduniontrains.co.uk

Honestly thought this had been back burnered following the pandemic - could be interesting if it ever actually does happen.

Greenfaulds instead of Cumbernauld seems odd - is that because Greenfaulds has a car park?

Is it that they are still actively planning for this route, or simply the site has remained up even though they're no longer serious about the proposal?

 

[ainsworth74]

Is it that they are still actively planning for this route, or simply the site has remained up even though they're no longer serious about the proposal?

They've got an application in with the ORR for a track access agreement still waiting a determination as far as I'm aware.

 

[The Planner]

Is it that they are still actively planning for this route, or simply the site has remained up even though they're no longer serious about the proposal?

Its serious, paths in the Dec 22 timetable for them. Whether they get rights is a different matter entirely.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Is it that they are still actively planning for this route, or simply the site has remained up even though they're no longer serious about the proposal?

They've got an application in with the ORR for a track access agreement still waiting a determination as far as I'm aware.

That doesn't necessarily mean that they would actually implement the service if the ORR granted the rights - after all Grand Central presumably had rights for their Blackpool service but they still decided not to run them in the end. Also, didn't the ORR refuse permission for the south Wales service and yet Grand Union haven't updated their website to show that is no longer happening, so they may have also neglected to close the website altogether if they had given up on the idea.

 

[ainsworth74]

That doesn't necessarily mean that they would actually implement the service if the ORR granted the rights - after all Grand Central presumably had rights for their Blackpool service but they still decided not to run them in the end.

I mean yes but that was because of a global pandemic that occured after they'd secured the rights. If that hadn't come along trains would currently be operating to Blackpool. The fact they've not withdrawn their application from the ORR indicates that they're still serious.

Also, didn't the ORR refuse permission for the south Wales service and yet Grand Union haven't updated their website to show that is no longer happening, so they may have also neglected to close the website altogether if they had given up on the idea.

They've just rebid for paths for the South Wales service...

 

[XCTurbostar]

Are there even enough Mk4s in existence to make this viable?

 

[JonathanH]

Are there even enough Mk4s in existence to make this viable?

Not ones that aren't currently in use but at some point LNER are expected to release their remaining sets (and obtain additional stock).