Could HS2 trains terminate at Old Oak Common?

[Purple Orange]

How many people actually travel from Exeter to Birmingham and north on a regular basis? If it’s penny loads, I’d argue all that’s needed post-HS2 is a once-per-day direct train for those who don’t like changing. Intermediate demand can be covered by Exeter - Bristol and Bristol - Derby semi-fasts.

I agree with your comment, with the exception of the once per day service for people who don’t like changing. It would introduce an irregular timetable and inefficiency within the network, so I’m not sure why these people should be pandered to.

 

[Horizon22]

And that is why the current Cross Country network will be obsolete once HS2 is up and running. Some of the network may remain, but a XC network that accommodates more stops than it does today will not compete. Perhaps there wilm still be a direct Manchester-Bournemouth, but it will be slower than it is today.

Not necessarily obsolete, but it may be able to cater for more local journeys & stops between Southampton (definitely Basingstoke) and Manchester. Evidently XC will have some radical shifts once HS2 comes into operation and may become more regional in its outlook.

 

[Ianno87]

Taunton to Paddington is about 1hr45, so OOC will be around 1hr40.

OOC to Curzon Street will be 38min, so Taunton to Curzon Street via OOC is roundly 2hr20min plus connection time.

Taunton to New Street is a shade over 2hr on a direct train.

So it is clear that a routeing via HS2 and OOC won't be time-competitive for Taunton-Birmingham journeys. The same applies for all journeys to/from west of Taunton.

Going beyond Birmingham, the routeing via OOC is only competitive for destinations reached more quickly by HS2 if the connection time New Street to Curzon Street is less than 20min longer than the connection time at OOC. I think this is only likely to be the case if the timetables misalign badly or there is no quick means of getting between the two Birmingham stations.

There's also the option of routeing via Birmingham Interchange, but that won't be a very quick connection either (ride on a peoplemover).

Taunton to Manchester/East Midlands/Leeds however, will be very competitive via Old Oak Common.

 

[edwin_m]

Taunton to Manchester/East Midlands/Leeds however, will be very competitive via Old Oak Common.

I don't think that follows, considering you have to go through one of the Birmingham stations and my previous post demonstrated that was likely to be quicker by the existing route.

 

[PTR 444]

I agree with your comment, with the exception of the once per day service for people who don’t like changing. It would introduce an irregular timetable and inefficiency within the network, so I’m not sure why these people should be pandered to.

If those people lost their direct train to the other side of the country, it will be a financial loss to the railway as they will choose to drive or fly instead.

 

[BayPaul]

Taunton to Manchester/East Midlands/Leeds however, will be very competitive via Old Oak Common.

Not at all - exactly the same time difference as for Exeter to Birmingham as mentioned above. Westbury / Castle Cary is probably the point where it makes more sense to go via OOC.

How many people actually travel from Exeter to Birmingham and north on a regular basis? If it’s penny loads, I’d argue all that’s needed post-HS2 is a once-per-day direct train for those who don’t like changing. Intermediate demand can be covered by Exeter - Bristol and Bristol - Derby semi-fasts.

Lots.
The XC trains would still be the fastest way to Birmingham and the north for stations including Cheltenham, Bristol, Taunton, Exeter, Torbay, Plymouth and all other stations in Devon and Cornwall. This is a big market even in the winter, increased substantially in the summer with holiday traffic. I can see the argument for terminating the train at New St (or Moor St) for onward connections via HS2, and perhaps for adding in a couple of extra stops, but I can see no argument at all for not having a direct train from Plymouth, Exeter and Bristol to Birmingham. If the eastern leg of HS2 isn't built then the through service to the NE also needs to be kept.

 

[Purple Orange]

If those people lost their direct train to the other side of the country, it will be a financial loss to the railway as they will choose to drive or fly instead.

If those people are only sufficient in number to warrant one train per day, I’d argue that the loss would be offset by better operating costs and a more efficient network.

 

[HSTEd]

I don't think that follows, considering you have to go through one of the Birmingham stations and my previous post demonstrated that was likely to be quicker by the existing route.

You go through a Birmingham station, at 320km/h.

Is there even a direct train from Taunton to Manchester any more?

 

[Purple Orange]

Not at all - exactly the same time difference as for Exeter to Birmingham as mentioned above. Westbury / Castle Cary is probably the point where it makes more sense to go via OOC.

Lots.
The XC trains would still be the fastest way to Birmingham and the north for stations including Cheltenham, Bristol, Taunton, Exeter, Torbay, Plymouth and all other stations in Devon and Cornwall. This is a big market even in the winter, increased substantially in the summer with holiday traffic. I can see the argument for terminating the train at New St (or Moor St) for onward connections via HS2, and perhaps for adding in a couple of extra stops, but I can see no argument at all for not having a direct train from Plymouth, Exeter and Bristol to Birmingham. If the eastern leg of HS2 isn't built then the through service to the NE also needs to be kept.

It would be mad to not have at least a 2 tph Birmingham-South West and Birmingham-South Coast service. Whether those particular services all need to head beyond Birmingham is not as clear cut.

To put it in to context, the intercity services out of Euston on the WCML is likely to reduce from 9 to 4. Of those 4, only 1 will head to Manchester and will probably stop at Watford, Milton Keynes, Rugby, Litchfield, Stafford, Stoke, Congleton, Macclesfield, Stockport on the way. End-to-end it will be a much slower service than today.

With that in mind, I could see the case for 1 tph from Birmingham to Manchester on the WCML, therefore that could be an extension of a South West-Birmingham service.

 

[BayPaul]

It would be mad to not have at least a 2 tph Birmingham-South West and Birmingham-South Coast service. Whether those particular services all need to head beyond Birmingham is not as clear cut.

To put it in to context, the intercity services out of Euston on the WCML is likely to reduce from 9 to 4. Of those 4, only 1 will head to Manchester and will probably stop at Watford, Milton Keynes, Rugby, Litchfield, Stafford, Stoke, Congleton, Macclesfield, Stockport on the way. End-to-end it will be a much slower service than today.

With that in mind, I could see the case for 1 tph from Birmingham to Manchester on the WCML, therefore that could be an extension of a South West-Birmingham service.

I agree!

 

[PTR 444]

I would say in that case it is probably easiest to keep the XC pattern through Birmingham as it is (1tph each from SW/SE to NW/NE), but add more stops* and remove any extensions north of Leeds/York. That way all XC stations retain their direct service and frequencies to stations south of the Northern Powerhouse corridor.

I would however divert the Bournemouth - Manchester service to Liverpool as the end to end journey would otherwise involve 2 changes if going via OOC (as opposed to 1 if going to Manchester). The via Doncaster service could be diverted to Hull as to avoid taking up capacity on the ECML.

*Potential additional stops XC could serve:
SW route: Worcestershire Parkway
SE route: Didcot Parkway
NW route: Sandwell & Dudley, Congleton
NE route: Tamworth, Burton on Trent

 

[BayPaul]

I would however divert the Bournemouth - Manchester service to Liverpool as the end to end journey would otherwise involve 2 changes if going via OOC (as opposed to 1 if going to Manchester).

I can't quite work this one out. There will be direct HS2 services from OOC to both Manchester and Liverpool, so the number of changes on trains from Bournemouth would be the same to either (2 changes, at Reading and OOC). On this basis, it makes more sense for it to go to Manchester, as there is presumably higher demand to a larger city.

 

[Irascible]

Is there even a direct train from Taunton to Manchester any more?

Can't find one - generally get told to change at New St or Tamworth depending which XC service. Also need multiple tickets, which is probably screwing the ORR journey results too.

 

[PTR 444]

I can't quite work this one out. There will be direct HS2 services from OOC to both Manchester and Liverpool, so the number of changes on trains from Bournemouth would be the same to either (2 changes, at Reading and OOC). On this basis, it makes more sense for it to go to Manchester, as there is presumably higher demand to a larger city.

Ah my mistake. I must have confused London - Liverpool with Birmingham - Liverpool at the time of writing. It’s the latter journey that definitely won’t have a direct HS2 service.

The 1 change figure assumes that Bournemouth will have a direct service to OOC, but of course this isn’t guaranteed.

 

[Bald Rick]

The 1 change figure assumes that Bournemouth will have a direct service to OOC, but of course this isn’t guaranteed.

It’s guaranteed not to happen!

 

[PTR 444]

It’s guaranteed not to happen!

It’s not guaranteed that it won’t happen 15-20 years from now

 

[Bald Rick]

It’s not guaranteed that it won’t happen 15-20 years from now

I’ll bet you a tenner...

If there’s spare capacity into Paddington, there’s a long list of places that would have priority over Bournemouth.

 

[HSTEd]

I’ll bet you a tenner...

If there’s spare capacity into Paddington, there’s a long list of places that would have priority over Bournemouth.

Are we including whatever the near-OOC stations on the WLL are called?

 

[Bald Rick]

Are we including whatever the near-OOC stations on the WLL are called?

Proposed station (singular). With no funding! And yes. How would you get to it from Bournemouth?

 

[Irascible]

Proposed station (singular). With no funding! And yes. How would you get to it from Bournemouth?

Turn left in Battersea, presumably.More interested in where you'd finish these trains... North Pole depot?

 

[Bald Rick]

Turn left in Battersea, presumably.More interested in where you'd finish these trains... North Pole depot?

Turn left at Byfleet first, before a nice trip around Chertsey, Staines and Twickenham. The proposed station is north of North Pole depot, so that would be a nice little reverse move with 8-10 trains an hour in each direction.

Clearly it’s not going to happen.

 

[HSTEd]

Turn left at Byfleet first, before a nice trip around Chertsey, Staines and Twickenham. The proposed station is north of North Pole depot, so that would be a nice little reverse move with 8-10 trains an hour in each direction.

Clearly it’s not going to happen.

Assuming we are talking about the proposed "Hythe Road" station on the WLL.... isn't it just WLL south to Clapham Junction and then to Bournemouth?

Obviously the track work around there is a rat's nest but isn't there a route from the WLL to the lines for Bournemouth?

EDIT:

Turns out there is one if you go via Tooting due to missing crossovers! Oops.

 

[Irascible]

Assuming we are talking about the proposed "Hythe Road" station on the WLL.... isn't it just WLL south to Clapham Junction and then to Bournemouth?

Obviously the track work around there is a rat's nest but isn't there a route from the WLL to the lines for Bournemouth?

EDIT:

Turns out there is one if you go via Tooting due to missing crossovers! Oops.

I think if you were genuinely serious about running south coast trains to HS2 you'd probably move North Pole depot ( westwards perhaps ) & reclaim the curve off the WLL, and add a couple more platforms at OOC. Some crossovers the other side of Clapham Jct are a minor expense in that plan

Maybe one day it'll be done ( perhaps when you literally can't terminate more trains in London terminii ) but I probably won't be aorund to see it.

 

[Bald Rick]

Turns out there is one if you go via Tooting due to missing crossovers! Oops.

Well there is that option - you just have to find a path that matches perfectly across the SWML at Wimbledon, through the Streatham Junctions complex, and up the Brighton Main Line to Clapham. Simples!