DB to buy Grand Central

[IanXC]

Unfortunatley not, they say their HQ and staff will remain in York and it will remain a seperate operating company. Doesnt mean they wont be able to use a larger bargaining position in procurement though they may fear competition scrutiny.

Can't see what kind of scrutiny could possibly be a problem! There's plenty of company groups out there providing services\goods to other members of their group. Take First, telesales in plymouth act for multiple TOCs plus HT, OOC do work on HT 180s, I'd be highly surprised if they bothered to put those out to competitive tender.

 

[HH]

Can't see what kind of scrutiny could possibly be a problem! There's plenty of company groups out there providing services\goods to other members of their group. Take First, telesales in plymouth act for multiple TOCs plus HT, OOC do work on HT 180s, I'd be highly surprised if they bothered to put those out to competitive tender.

Telesales in Plymouth has been hived off and is no longer part of First, but while they were they were certainly put through the normal tender process in First, and I imagine elsewhere. How good the process is in this situation I couldn't say, but that others (including ATOC) used them means the service can't have been too bad.

But you do have to jump through hoops in these circumstances. DB may feel that it's not worth the candle, especially as there may be political fallout with them not being a UK company.

 

[Lampshade]

Keep Sunderlands, use Bradford paths as base to launch GNER.

The only one that isn't completely crackers is the Cleethorpes route. Huddersfield would be much better served by the GNWR service, more direct as opposed to trundling through Penistone, Sheffield and Retford; and the Triangle does not need three London services, a few extensions and good connections at Shipley would suffice.

 

[142094]

When I first heard that Arriva were to buy GC my first thought was that the Bradford route would be sacrificed and the paths used for something else. Will be interesting to see if it does happen.

 

[tbtc]

When I first heard that Arriva were to buy GC my first thought was that the Bradford route would be sacrificed and the paths used for something else

The thing is, I'm really not sure what "other" destinations could be better served with those paths?

(since GC obviously won't be allowed to run London - Leeds or London - Newcastle)

Bradford may be a waste of resources, but its surely a bigger market than Cleethorpes/ Huddersfield etc? There's not an obvious "better use of GC paths" to me (unless all ECML services are part of one TOC)

 

[Masboroughlad]

Will be interesting to see how the whole Alliance and Grand Central thing will work going forwards. Seems somewhat ironic that they both ended up with the same owner.

Hope Bradford service keeps going but I think it will head down the same toilet as WSMR did. Would be a shame too.

Hope the Alliance Rail bids continue. Maybe we'll re a 'super OAO' opening up new routes left right and centre?! Doubt it somehow.

Pity also that we see the number of smaller independents diminish/disappear. I'd like to see some new OAOs enter the market. What happened to Rutland Rail, the OAO for Leicestershire?

 

[WatcherZero]

A lot of companies/communities profess a desire to operate an OAO route then a couple of years later the capital investment required and the years of service until profitability hit home.

 

[142094]

The thing is, I'm really not sure what "other" destinations could be better served with those paths?

(since GC obviously won't be allowed to run London - Leeds or London - Newcastle)

Bradford may be a waste of resources, but its surely a bigger market than Cleethorpes/ Huddersfield etc? There's not an obvious "better use of GC paths" to me (unless all ECML services are part of one TOC)

Can't think of one off the top of my head but they won't keep a loss-making service going for long as previous events have shown.

 

[The Planner]

GC isn't a huge loss maker as it is a massive ORCATS raid with non-stop York to Kings Cross paths. Where it starts/finishes is irrelevant in those terms, it could be any old shack you could turn a HST or 180 round in. WillPS isn't far off it in my view, this just seems a convenient way for Alliance to grab paths through the back door.

 

[142094]

GC isn't a huge loss maker as it is a massive ORCATS raid with non-stop York to Kings Cross paths. Where it starts/finishes is irrelevant in those terms, it could be any old shack you could turn a HST or 180 round in. WillPS isn't far off it in my view, this just seems a convenient way for Alliance to grab paths through the back door.

Sunderland - KGX is the best bit of the business but Arriva has to take the other bit which isn't so great - I bet if they could get rid of everything north of Doncaster on the Bradford services they'd do so. Only thing is, if you don't go to Bradford, where do you go?

 

[ainsworth74]

Only thing is, if you don't go to Bradford, where do you go?

Well going from the Alliance Rail website I'd say either Cleethorpes or one of Ilkley/Skipton/Bradford Forster Square via Leeds.

 

[Lampshade]

Well going from the Alliance Rail website I'd say either Cleethorpes or one of Ilkley/Skipton/Bradford Forster Square via Leeds.

Could do London - Skipton then to Carlisle via the S&C, or over to Morecambe/Heysham.

 

[Snapper]

Don't write the Bradford services off yet.

Loadings are much better nowadays and there are plans to rejig the service with trains stopping at Mirfield (instead of Pontefract) - which will give greater opportunities to tap into the Huddersfield market. Add to that the fact that cutting out Ponty allows the service to be speeded up by nearly half an hour.

 

[Lampshade]

Don't write the Bradford services off yet.

Loadings are much better nowadays and there are plans to rejig the service with trains stopping at Mirfield (instead of Pontefract) - which will give greater opportunities to tap into the Huddersfield market. Add to that the fact that cutting out Ponty allows the service to be speeded up by nearly half an hour.

Thought they'd already tried to switch it to Mirfield without any success? :?

One of the reasons they run via Pontefract is due to capacity constraints through Hare Park Junction towards Doncaster, as they've got the Doncaster 321 service and the Leeds - KGX services running that way as well.

 

[tbtc]

Sunderland - KGX is the best bit of the business but Arriva has to take the other bit which isn't so great - I bet if they could get rid of everything north of Doncaster on the Bradford services they'd do so. Only thing is, if you don't go to Bradford, where do you go?

Thats what I don't get.

Its a lot of money to spend on a company on the hope of getting Open Access paths into Leeds. Who'd bid for the next ECML franchise if they had to put up with competition on that flow though?

Hull is already "taken". Cleethorpes/ Scarborough/ Harrogate/ Huddersfield all have much lower populations than Bradford.

 

[Eagle]

Cleethorpes...all have much lower populations than Bradford.

Ah, but does Cleethorpes + Grimsby + Scunthorpe total to more than Bradford, though?

 

[WillPS]

Plus North Lincolnshire suffers a poor level of service overall - whereas Bradford is arguable better served by a connection at Leeds.

 

[MCR247]

But when Bradford is just building up passengers, surely it'd be fairly pointless to just start it all again with empty trains on a North Lincolnshire service?

 

[WillPS]

Building up numbers and profitability are two different things. Those numbers are, I expect, propped up by unsustainable prices.

The purpose of the Bradford service was to gain paths to make the company more saleable, I'm certain.

 

[tbtc]

But when Bradford is just building up passengers, surely it'd be fairly pointless to just start it all again with empty trains on a North Lincolnshire service?

I guess that York shows us that GC don't have to fill their trains, just get a certain share of the existing pot. Good point though, it would take a while to build passenger numbers from "zero" (which, as the Bradford service has shown, takes time)

Ah, but does Cleethorpes + Grimsby + Scunthorpe total to more than Bradford, though?

Possibly, although the Bradford service also serves Wakefield/ Brighouse/ Halifax (albeit Wakefield obviously has a much better London service from Westgate)
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The purpose of the Bradford service was to gain paths to make the company more saleable, I'm certain.

I fear you may be right, which turns me against OA operators (if its more important to "win" paths to boost your price when you sell the company, than it is to "win" paths to build a long term company).

Not the best use of paths/ stock.

 

[Snapper]

Building up numbers and profitability are two different things. Those numbers are, I expect, propped up by unsustainable prices.

The purpose of the Bradford service was to gain paths to make the company more saleable, I'm certain.

Nope. GC have always had ambitions. Of course it makes the company more valuable, but that's part of the whole idea.

GC are very competitive on ticket prices, but time will tell if they're too low to be sustainable. I suspect not.

 

[Adam_Harrison]

Don't write the Bradford services off yet.

Loadings are much better nowadays and there are plans to rejig the service with trains stopping at Mirfield (instead of Pontefract) - which will give greater opportunities to tap into the Huddersfield market. Add to that the fact that cutting out Ponty allows the service to be speeded up by nearly half an hour.

They don't want to drop Pontefract completely, just drop it from some North bound trains and all Sunday trains.

 

[142094]

Thats what I don't get.

Its a lot of money to spend on a company on the hope of getting Open Access paths into Leeds. Who'd bid for the next ECML franchise if they had to put up with competition on that flow though?

Hull is already "taken". Cleethorpes/ Scarborough/ Harrogate/ Huddersfield all have much lower populations than Bradford.

If there was some actual competition (i.e. not just an open access operator getting the crumbs) which privatisation was supposed to bring, then I suspect that a lot of companies would either pull out or put in much lower bids.

North Lincolnshire might just about be a decent option, but then again nearly all the stations previously mentioned have a good service to London within one change (Huddersfield, Skipton, Lincoln etc).

Difficult to say what will happen but I bet there are people within Arriva/GC having the same problems!

 

[daikilo]

If there was some actual competition (i.e. not just an open access operator getting the crumbs) which privatisation was supposed to bring, then I suspect that a lot of companies would either pull out or put in much lower bids.

North Lincolnshire might just about be a decent option, but then again nearly all the stations previously mentioned have a good service to London within one change (Huddersfield, Skipton, Lincoln etc).

Difficult to say what will happen but I bet there are people within Arriva/GC having the same problems!

Whilst German govt owned DB seem to be competing with UK govt owned EC, what if DB consider the route KX to Northallerton does not need financial support? This could limit how bidders for the EC franchise structure their bids. And, if I was DB, I might even propose extending my open access ops to at least Newcastle and possibly at least part way to Edinburgh.

I think this is an astute and extremely disruptive move. So much so that I wonder who is behind it?

 

[WillPS]

Nope. GC have always had ambitions. Of course it makes the company more valuable, but that's part of the whole idea.

GC are very competitive on ticket prices, but time will tell if they're too low to be sustainable. I suspect not.

I don't understand on what point we're disagreeing upon? The ambition of any for-profit business is to return maximum dividends for its shareholders - taking sought-after ECML paths with very little potential for profit is a clear case of competitor blocking/company value enhancing. Clearly, they've done very well off it, as Arriva have clearly concluded that in order to get their foot in the door on the ECML the only realistic option is to buy out Grand Central.

£20m buys them a couple of handfuls of a scarce resource (ECML paths - some of which are profitable) and an operational base - both of which are needed to get their GNER plans on line. I assume the costs involved with getting stock/documentation/consultation/hiring etc. would be rather more than that.

 

[ainsworth74]

And, if I was DB, I might even propose extending my open access ops to at least Newcastle and possibly at least part way to Edinburgh.

They could propose doing that till the cows come home but it won't get any further than that as 1) EC would kick up one hell of a fuss and 2) The ORR would never ever let that happen as it would clearly be revenue abstraction from the ICEC franchise which would have the knock on effect of reducing its value in the upcoming refranchising of ICEC. I would also guess that there will be issues with pathing in extra services between London - Newcastle/Edinburgh as the route seems pretty full as it is.

So DB can propose it all they like but unless they win ICEC there's no way that I can see any DB trains running the full length of the ECML (unless Deutsche Bahn itself decides to try and run European services starting from deeper in the UK than London).

 

[spionkop64]

Ah, but does Cleethorpes + Grimsby + Scunthorpe total to more than Bradford, though?

I very much doubt it. Bradford's population is around 500,000 (that's the metropolitan district, the city itself is around 400,000), then you have Halifax and Calderdale around the 100,000 mark and from December better connections to the Huddersfield area with the Mirfield stop.

Loadings are steadily increasing on the Bradford route and the 06.51 ex BDI is regularly very well loaded north of Wakefield, likewise all Friday trains and other weekend trains are beginning to follow suit.

Halifax is apprarently doing very well, the big market though is Bradford. Drop Pontefract and GC will give EC real competition. Until they can do that it is still often faster to change at Leeds. Some passengers are being enticed by the direct train and the £19 advance fare (which is being heavily advertised on buses etc in the city).

In short I think they would be daft to drop the Bradford route after coming this far. Another 12 months should see whether the Bradford route will follow the Sunderland one into profitability.

 

[Old Yard Dog]

The Bradford - Kings Cross service desperately needs better paths to and from Doncaster in order to compete. It takes almost two hours to do 30-40 miles as the crow flies. It was the long journey times (and the lack of through workings or decent connections to Chester) that killed the Wrexham - Marylebone route.

GC's problem seems to be getting across the Leeds - Huddersfield line. GC trains spend long periods waiting at Halifax for paths (as do Northern's Bradford - Huddersfield services). TransPennine's paths seem to be sacrosanct and everybody else must defer to their requirements.

Dropping the desolate Pontefract stop and running via the electrified route from Wakefield to Doncaster would certainly speed up GC timings.

Britain's 10th largest city has been treated appallingly by the various operators of the ECML over the years, who now only provide a token service to Forster Square. Bradford is not a suburb of Leeds and the locals resent always having to change there.

 

[Lampshade]

The Bradford - Kings Cross service desperately needs better paths to and from Doncaster in order to compete. It takes almost two hours to do 30-40 miles as the crow flies. It was the long journey times (and the lack of through workings or decent connections to Chester) that killed the Wrexham - Marylebone route.

GC's problem seems to be getting across the Leeds - Huddersfield line. GC trains spend long periods waiting at Halifax for paths (as do Northern's Bradford - Huddersfield services). TransPennine's paths seem to be sacrosanct and everybody else must defer to their requirements.

Dropping the desolate Pontefract stop and running via the electrified route from Wakefield to Doncaster would certainly speed up GC timings.

Britain's 10th largest city has been treated appallingly by the various operators of the ECML over the years, who now only provide a token service to Forster Square. Bradford is not a suburb of Leeds and the locals resent always having to change there.

GC could cut around half an hour out by running via Hare Park Junction rather than Pontefract. Problem there is they have to share that stretch with East Coast and Northern Doncaster stoppers/Sheffield via Moorthorpe services so paths are scarce.

 

[shinkansen1966]

What is happening to the GNER plan to electrify the line between Hambleton (near Selby) and into Leeds ? You'll have two electric lines from Doncaster to Leeds: the one via Wakefield Westgate and new one using the ECML Selby diversion and into Leeds via Garforth.

This would allow electric trains to run from London KX to Bradford without the need to reverse in Leeds.