Death rate revised down

[greyman42]

Why did the government try to exaggerate the deaths?

To frighten people into compliance regarding lockdown.

 

[30907]

To frighten people into compliance regarding lockdown.

Which is why the narrative was all about the reducing number of deaths?

And if they'd reduced the total they'd have been accused of massaging the figures... given the political narrative.

 

[Jamesrob637]

According to Worldometer, the death toll is as follows:

18 yesterday
20 Wednesday
14 Tuesday
17 Monday
5 Sunday
3 Saturday
12 last Friday

So a rolling average of 12 ish. Makes for more encouraging reading than 50-60. However, will we now see the lowest figures on Saturdays and Sundays moving forward, rather than on Sundays and Mondays?

 

[Class 33]

And only 11 deaths today. The deaths now really are incredibly low.

BUT unfortunately a sharp rise in new cases today to 1,441. Wouldn't be too surprised if Boris takes some urgent action on that. Godknows what that will be!

 

[Ken H]

It really shouldn't be difficult to put together a system to collate this - all deaths have to be registered, so they could instruct the registrars to send this information once a week, or whatever.

Big questions about death reasons on death certs
Doctors were encouraged to put covid on death certs.
This is the big 'died with' vs 'died from' argument.
Many of the safeguards put in after Shipman were swept away and doctors were allowed to certify death without seeing the patient.
Some are arguing that death from numbers may be under 20% of the deaths registered.

 

[Ken H]

And only 11 deaths today. The deaths now really are incredibly low.

BUT unfortunately a sharp rise in new cases today to 1,441. Wouldn't be too surprised if Boris takes some urgent action on that. Godknows what that will be!

Research has shown no-one has contracted COVID while standing on one leg.
So now while in the supermarket queue, you have to stand on one leg.
</sarc>

 

[DB]

Research has shown no-one has contracted COVID while standing on one leg.
So now while in the supermarket queue, you have to stand on one leg.
</sarc>

I think you mean that there is "growing evidence" that standing on one leg can help prevent....

 

[LAX54]

And why, if the government in England were too dim to realise someone testing positive in March who got hit by a bus in May might *not* have died of Covid, didn’t the medical advisers, or people in the other nations point out the methodology may inflate the death toll?

ep

There was a TV report a week or so ago, Italy said it had 'over-estmated' the toll, and many that were down as C-19 were not actually correct.

 

[LAX54]

Research has shown no-one has contracted COVID while standing on one leg.
So now while in the supermarket queue, you have to stand on one leg.
</sarc>

But in reality, and taken in context with other virus's we have had, was the the death toll that high? It certainly sounded high when given as a total

 

[LAX54]

Well, because it's true whereas saying the numbers are just flu is not true.

And because if it is just flu it would mean that one viral infection (or rather a set of related viral infections) were causing more deaths than the coronavirus.
But pneumonia is not necessarily caused by a virus.

In 2018 my wife had flu, which is of course a cornavirus, and that did develop into pneumonia, and was seriously ill in Hospital, I too had flu, but no such thing as self-isloation, so probably gave it to a few more !

 

[AdamWW]

In 2018 my wife had flu, which is of course a cornavirus,

It's not.

 

[Domh245]

The interesting thing about the death certificates being overly cautious about COVID means that if it was the case and significantly fewer people died of COVID than our numbers actually say, what exactly was killing those people back in April/May. There is still a huge number of excess deaths which can't be explained away by saying "oh it wasn't COVID" - if anything it makes the lockdown look even worse

 

[packermac]

And why, if the government in England were too dim to realise someone testing positive in March who got hit by a bus in May might *not* have died of Covid, didn’t the medical advisers, or people in the other nations point out the methodology may inflate the death toll?

Everyone nation seems to have a different view of what to record.
Belgium for example record a care home death as Covid if someone had previously died of Covid in that home. A position their health minister strongly justifies, even if it does lead to them having a very high death rate per 1M of population.
I have recorded a number of nations figures since mid March and many have been revised a number of times, France seems to be a leader in that respect.

 

[adc82140]

BUT unfortunately a sharp rise in new cases today to 1,441. Wouldn't be too surprised if Boris takes some urgent action on that. Godknows what that will be!

He'll have been party to that information way before we were, yet still went ahead with the lockdown relaxation. You don't think that finally he's twigged that these figures are not translating into hospital admissions, ventilated patients and deaths?

Don't forget also, 300 of those positives are from that sandwich factory.

 

[MikeWM]

He'll have been party to that information way before we were, yet still went ahead with the lockdown relaxation. You don't think that finally he's twigged that these figures are not translating into hospital admissions, ventilated patients and deaths?

Given he's added France to the quarantine measures at the same time (based purely on increase in infections, it appears), sadly probably not.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

BUT unfortunately a sharp rise in new cases today to 1,441. Wouldn't be too surprised if Boris takes some urgent action on that. Godknows what that will be!

Still only 0.9% of tests returned positive though, which ultimately is a better figure to focus on.

 

[LAX54]

It's not.

sorry my mistake, just seen this ...

The common cold is caused by a different strain of virus to the Covid-19.

Most coronaviruses, such as the common cold, cause mild infection in the upper respiratory tract and produce relatively minor symptoms such as a stuffy nose, sore head and sore throat.



People who contract Covid-19 suffer from respiratory systems that can cause coughing, shortness of breath, difficulty breathing and fever.


The infection can also cause pneumonia, kidney failure and in the most serious cases, death.

 

[Ken H]

The interesting thing about the death certificates being overly cautious about COVID means that if it was the case and significantly fewer people died of COVID than our numbers actually say, what exactly was killing those people back in April/May. There is still a huge number of excess deaths which can't be explained away by saying "oh it wasn't COVID" - if anything it makes the lockdown look even worse

Other flu like illnesses, which people didnt get treated, and loads of people not getting medical assistance for stuff they should have. So people may have been dying at home of heart disease, strokes etc.
Even now GP surgeries are no go areas. as are hospitals. Where are all the people who used to be at the GP getting stuff done?
Early winter was a low death one. so flu was killing less people than normal. A bit of flu in march with limited medical support would mean a few old people would die, people who probably would have dies earlier if there had been a bad flu strain around then.

Remember, tens of thousands of people die of Flu each year in UK. In 2017/18 it was 26408, though that was a bad year.

 

[AdamWW]

Even now GP surgeries are no go areas. as are hospitals. Where are all the people who used to be at the GP getting stuff done?

That's certainly not true where I am.

You do need to talk to a GP on the phone first, and if your symptoms are remotely Covid-y they want you to get a Covid test before you come in, but they aren't "no-go" areas.

 

[Bantamzen]

Other flu like illnesses, which people didnt get treated, and loads of people not getting medical assistance for stuff they should have. So people may have been dying at home of heart disease, strokes etc.
Even now GP surgeries are no go areas. as are hospitals. Where are all the people who used to be at the GP getting stuff done?
Early winter was a low death one. so flu was killing less people than normal. A bit of flu in march with limited medical support would mean a few old people would die, people who probably would have dies earlier if there had been a bad flu strain around then.

Remember, tens of thousands of people die of Flu each year in UK. In 2017/18 it was 26408, though that was a bad year.

Well we can at least take comfort that the great lockdown of 2017/18 only resulted in close to 50K excess deaths. Oh wait.....

Ineffective flu vaccine contributed to 50,000 extra deaths last winter

Human suffering and lost lives over winter 'predictable, preventable and shameful', fuel poverty campaigners say

www.independent.co.uk

The flu vaccine’s failure to protect against some of the key strains of the infection contributed to more than 50,000 “extra” deaths in England and Wales last winter, according to data from the Office of National Statistics.

It was the worst winter on record for more than 40 years, with the 1975-76 season being the last time deaths climbed so high above the expected levels.

The NHS was rocked by a record winter crisis in early 2018, with a massive rise in flu cases and sub-zero temperatures triggered by the Beast from the East storm, which added further to death rates.

And for context this was with a vaccine!

That's certainly not true where I am.

You do need to talk to a GP on the phone first, and if your symptoms are remotely Covid-y they want you to get a Covid test before you come in, but they aren't "no-go" areas.

I can promise you it is the case we I am, my wife is currently trying to get follow-up care from a broken collar bone and our local GP practice is most definitely still closed.

 

[AdamWW]

I can promise you it is the case we I am, my wife is currently trying to get follow-up care from a broken collar bone and our local GP practice is most definitely still closed.

That is utterly dreadful and I hope is the exception not the rule (and that you can get something sorted out soon).

 

[Bantamzen]

That is utterly dreadful and I hope is the exception not the rule (and that you can get something sorted out soon).

I'm afraid it isn't, I know quite a few people in the health service around the country who report the same. But thank you for the thoughts.

 

[packermac]

That's certainly not true where I am.

You do need to talk to a GP on the phone first, and if your symptoms are remotely Covid-y they want you to get a Covid test before you come in, but they aren't "no-go" areas.

They may not be exactly no go areas but very difficult to access, although ours does at least no longer look how I imagine the lobby of Porton Down looks any longer.
Our neighbour is one of the receptionists but basically the message is still go away, but put politely.

 

[MotCO]

I don't believe there is any conspiracy in determining the number of deaths. There are over 1,250 hopitals in the UK, and each hospital has anywhere between 100 - 1,000 beds. A hospital's prime function is to care for and cure patients; it is not to count how patients die etc. - that is all secondary, and thus not as refined as people probably think.

Understandably there is a political imperative to know the number of Covid deaths as soon as possible. The media will not accept that there are difficulties in determining how to count these deaths - any delay or prevarication will lead to accusations that the Government does not know what it is doing. An 'easy' method of counting had to be implemented quickly, but it had to be accurate. Double-counting had to be avoided at all costs - for example, a death in a private hospital or care home may be counted there, or at the hospital they were taken to, or at both. Even within a hospital, a patient's name or number may be tranposed, so the numbers may be duplicated.

Comparisons are then made with other countries, and what became transparent was that everyone was counting deaths differently. No one wants to be at the top of the league, so adjustments are periodically made to enable fairer comparisons to be made.

Thus any speculation of conspiracy is wide of the mark.

 

[DannyMich2018]

So any Covid death with a positive test within 28 days still counts on the daily death count. Of course this wont count if for an example if someone spends more five weeks in hospital after a positive test after a day or two in there and dies or maybe 3 weeks in hospital, goes back home re admitted and sadly dies a week or so later. Presume its fair to say most Covid deaths occur in hospitals or (care homes to a lesser extent) we should only include deaths with a positive test in these settings within any time period.

 

[adc82140]

The sickest patients in hospitals are retested regularly.

 

[jtuk]

Still only 0.9% of tests returned positive though, which ultimately is a better figure to focus on.

Slightly up, but this is what happens when they go mad with tests where they think it's about.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

And only 11 deaths today. The deaths now really are incredibly low.

BUT unfortunately a sharp rise in new cases today to 1,441. Wouldn't be too surprised if Boris takes some urgent action on that. Godknows what that will be!

Perhaps they’ll target testing in areas that have hitherto had low case numbers. Got to keep Project Fear going, somehow

 

[Skimpot flyer]

The interesting thing about the death certificates being overly cautious about COVID means that if it was the case and significantly fewer people died of COVID than our numbers actually say, what exactly was killing those people back in April/May. There is still a huge number of excess deaths which can't be explained away by saying "oh it wasn't COVID" - if anything it makes the lockdown look even worse

Some of those excess deaths will be from untreated cancers. How many, I couldn’t begin to guess.

I read with dismay reports of a 20% year-on-year fall in urgent cancer referrals (Metro, Aug 14) in England, with 40,913 fewer cases referred. This news came the day after government revised the official death toll from coronavirus in England downwards, to
41,329. The NHS has not been overwhelmed, and coronavirus deaths, hospitalisations and patients in intensive care are all at low levels. Can anyone now doubt that the focus must shift quickly, or else the numbers dying from treatable, non-Covid conditions - not just cancer - will ultimately be far, far greater than those lost to coronavirus?

 

[30907]

Well we can at least take comfort that the great lockdown of 2017/18 only resulted in close to 50K excess deaths. Oh wait.....

Ineffective flu vaccine contributed to 50,000 extra deaths last winter

Human suffering and lost lives over winter 'predictable, preventable and shameful', fuel poverty campaigners say

www.independent.co.uk

And for context this was with a vaccine!



I can promise you it is the case we I am, my wife is currently trying to get follow-up care from a broken collar bone and our local GP practice is most definitely still closed.

Winter routinely causes 30k excess deaths (average 39k over 5 years, defined as compared with previous/following quarter) so max 20k deaths can be attributed to flu
https://fullfact.org/online/Excess-winter-deaths-UK/

I presume by "closed" you mean "not offering face to face GP appointments?"