Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut

[js1000]

Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut
Ministers are preparing to cut back train services as passenger numbers slump and operators risk going bust.

Numbers of passengers are understood to have fallen by 30%-50% on some lines as fears over the spread of the virus hit busy services. Train bosses are believed to have held crisis meetings with transport officials after the drop in passenger numbers over the past two weeks left a number of operators in dire financial straits

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/drop-in-passenger-numbers-sees-train-services-cut-9slffvkdm

I commute to work in Manchester and last week was disturbingly quiet on the train so the possibility of some services being temporarily reduced over the coming months is not a surprise. It seems as if some are already working from home and I am expecting where we work that we will be doing the same in the coming weeks due mitigate the spread of the Coronavirus.

 

[theironroad]

The last week or so especially there has been a noticeable quietness on many trains and even Waterloo seems eerily quiet at times.

 

[MDB1images]

We are in unchartered waters.
A personal opinion is that long distance services could be thinned out eventually as passenger figures drop as leisure and even business travel becomes less necessary.
It also gives some strength to the train plan if some traincrew end up self isolating(thus cover is available to provide a reliable service).

 

[Robertj21a]

We are in unchartered waters.
A personal opinion is that long distance services could be thinned out eventually as passenger figures drop as leisure and even business travel becomes less necessary.
It also gives some strength to the train plan if some traincrew end up self isolating(thus cover is available to provide a reliable service).

It might be quite a sensible thing anyway to reduce travel by encouraging far more to work from home and/or use video conferencing or Skype facilities to a much greater extent. This could actually be the 'break through' needed to curtail the need for further expansion.

 

[westv]

The Jubilee and Met lines were the same for me last week as previous weeks.

 

[matt_world2004]

Sunday service across most of the network in the next few months I bet. With maybe exceptions so trains start and finish service at their normal weekday times.

 

[SlimJim1694]

That's a nice thought. Reduced service = mess rooms full of spare train crew passing the virus onto each other! They aren't going to pay us to stay home unless we are sick so they'll be paying staff to sit around. Might as well just run the trains.

 

[Triumph]

Eurostar has already canceled 4 services each day starting from tomorrow for the next 2 weeks, with a further review in 2 weeks' time. I think one of the big problems will be if any signaling staff have to have time off in large numbers, as that could end up with sections of line closures.

 

[JonathanH]

That's a nice thought. Reduced service = mess rooms full of spare train crew passing the virus onto each other! They aren't going to pay us to stay home unless we are sick so they'll be paying staff to sit around. Might as well just run the trains.

I think you would eliminate overtime and possibly need to cut working hours and by implication Pay - no different to the rest of the economy.

The idea that people can continue to be paid a full salary when the demand for services (not just transport) is falling across the economy is fanciful.

Common sense about mess rooms would be needed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The last week or so especially there has been a noticeable quietness on many trains and even Waterloo seems eerily quiet at times.

Yesterday definitely. Used LNR from Bletchley to Liverpool and there were single figures per coach.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I've not seen an impact on ScotRail services yet. However from this week I believe that passenger figures will drop across the ScotRail network as fewer people will travel.

 

[matt_world2004]

That's a nice thought. Reduced service = mess rooms full of spare train crew passing the virus onto each other! They aren't going to pay us to stay home unless we are sick so they'll be paying staff to sit around. Might as well just run the trains.

They would pay train crew to be on callout that would be the most sensible solution. Most people with coronovirus are going to report sick before their duty starts at which point you get the reserve drivers in. A lower frequency service in the long term is better than a unreliable service and if reliability tanks passenger numbers drop further.

Or use the reduced service to train staff in things they will need to know, such as rolling stock changes .

 

[Meerkat]

Are the TOCs dropping units yet? Ie 12s running as 8s etc etc?

 

[The Planner]

TOCs started looking at timetables for this eventuality a couple of weeks ago.

Are the TOCs dropping units yet? Ie 12s running as 8s etc etc?

Depends on how they are leased, if they are mileage based then expect to see it, otherwise it makes little difference to them.

 

[Meerkat]

Depends on how they are leased, if they are mileage based then expect to see it, otherwise it makes little difference to them.

Reduced access charges, reduced cleaning, reduced maintenance - the latter could be important if sickness absence starts to bite.
Conversely they could be told that lots of space is healthy, don’t reduce capacity and squeeze passengers together.....

 

[The Planner]

Reduced access charges, reduced cleaning, reduced maintenance - the latter could be important if sickness absence starts to bite.
Conversely they could be told that lots of space is healthy, don’t reduce capacity and squeeze passengers together.....

You assume you can stable them too, there is a fair bit of outstabling overnight as depots don't have enough room.

 

[Halish Railway]

I’ve noticed a slight drop on long distance routes - I got the 16:10 Manchester Airport to Newcastle as far as Leeds last Saturday and it was dead from Manchester Airport (I’m pretty sure I was the only one in coach A. There were also entire tables available upon leaving Oxford Road, on a Class 185!

 

[WatcherZero]

Slight drop on my train last week, not huge, kinda akin to a school half term week.
The drop in road traffic has been far more noticeable though.

The services I use are far from empty so don't think we need to cancel services yet, but possibly if the reduction rate increases it may be worthwhile to shortform trains and catch up on maintenance. Northern is still regularly cancelling services due to "too many trains requiring maintenance"

 

[InOban]

I believe that the French government has told SNCF to halve their services.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I believe that the French government has told SNCF to halve their services.

Eurostar are also cancelling services from the 21st. 4 a day cancelled, One to Paris and back, one to Brussels and back

 

[Dave W]

The Jubilee and Met lines were the same for me last week as previous weeks.

The Piccadilly and Victoria lines were markedly quieter than my usual experience. Maybe the timings have changed and people are trying to avoid the peaks?

 

[td97]

It could provide a useful opportunity for TOCs like Northern to thin out their passenger service and make some progress with their huge training backlog using the spare train crew/stock.

 

[westv]

The Piccadilly and Victoria lines were markedly quieter than my usual experience. Maybe the timings have changed and people are trying to avoid the peaks?

I was travelling in the peak. Maybe the Victoria and Picc lines are more tourist orientated?

 

[furnessvale]

Are the TOCs dropping units yet? Ie 12s running as 8s etc etc?

That sounds like a good idea NOT. Instead of letting passengers spread out to avoid passing the virus on, let's keep them in the cramped conditions they have become used to!

 

[theironroad]

That sounds like a good idea NOT. Instead of letting passengers spread out to avoid passing the virus on, let's keep them in the cramped conditions they have become used to!

Exactly. Give people more space, to sit at least a metre apart .

Also, cleaning budgets should be increasing temporarily to allow a far more frequent and thorough cleaning of trains in service.

 

[ainsworth74]

The idea that people can continue to be paid a full salary when the demand for services (not just transport) is falling across the economy is fanciful.

Unless I miss my mark they may not have a choice. As far as I'm aware if you're contracted to work, say, 35 hours per week then your employer pretty much has to either give you 35 hours of work or pay you for 35 hours of work. I am, of course, speaking in broad terms. If someone's contract makes provision for being laid off for a period of time or being given reduced hours for a period of time then those provisions could be used. Equally if you're on zero hours then clearly the employer doesn't have to give you work then either!

Sticking to the transport sector though I it was interesting that BA didn't tell it's staff "you will be taking unpaid leave" it asked them to take unpaid leave. I suspect that that's because BA don't have the choice as I rather suspect their staff contracts don't have provisions for them to force them to be laid off.

Obviously many contracts have variation clauses in them that allow an employer to change the contracted hours of work but that can take a bit of time to work through and in unionised industries like the railway or airlines isn't exactly a risk free option. Of course in an extreme you can obviously make staff redundant but that does then make it hard to ramp back up again on the other side of a temporary slow down as well as the industrial relations issues...

 

[ScotGG]

I started a post on this about 2-3 weeks ago. It was locked I believe (or moved to somewhere obscure) as some people didn't grasp the situation. Yet it was clear a month ago at least this event was to have a massive impact on travel.

As for current contracts, emergency legislation could be passed to annul or amend contracts. Who knows - all bets are off.

France today looks set to announce intercity limits to coach and train travel.

 

[theironroad]

Unless I miss my mark they may not have a choice. As far as I'm aware if you're contracted to work, say, 35 hours per week then your employer pretty much has to either give you 35 hours of work or pay you for 35 hours of work. I am, of course, speaking in broad terms. If someone's contract makes provision for being laid off for a period of time or being given reduced hours for a period of time then those provisions could be used. Equally if you're on zero hours then clearly the employer doesn't have to give you work then either!

Sticking to the transport sector though I it was interesting that BA didn't tell it's staff "you will be taking unpaid leave" it asked them to take unpaid leave. I suspect that that's because BA don't have the choice as I rather suspect their staff contracts don't have provisions for them to force them to be laid off.

Obviously many contracts have variation clauses in them that allow an employer to change the contracted hours of work but that can take a bit of time to work through and in unionised industries like the railway or airlines isn't exactly a risk free option. Of course in an extreme you can obviously make staff redundant but that does then make it hard to ramp back up again on the other side of a temporary slow down as well as the industrial relations issues...

BA initially asked staff to voluntarily take unpaid leave, which at other times might be welcome. I'd take a few months if I could go travelling, but as that's not a realistic option with C19 then not much point.

BA's widely leaked internal letter from a few days ago says that they will have to make compulsory lay offs.

That may be averted if the airlines pleas to government today for £bns in financial aid are met.

 

[ainsworth74]

BA initially asked staff to voluntarily take unpaid leave, which at other times might be welcome. I'd take a few months if I could go travelling, but as that's not a realistic option with C19 then not much point.

BA's widely leaked internal letter from a few days ago says that they will have to make compulsory lay offs.

That may be averted if the airlines pleas to government today for £bns in financial aid are met.

Yes BA do seem to be in somewhat dire circumstances so I would not be surprised that if there's no bailout their next step is to seek compulsory redundancies (or perhaps voluntary redundancies and early retirements first).

 

[Meerkat]

First stage will be negotiated pay cuts won’t it?

That may be averted if the airlines pleas to government today for £bns in financial aid are met.

I can’t see it - the list of pleas for bailouts is going to be huge, they will be reluctant to set any industry specific precedents. First thing would be economy wide tax holidays, then maybe specific regulation changes to ease pressures (not sure what they could be for airlines though)