East-West Rail (EWR): Consultation updates [not speculation]

[CdBrux]

Railnews are reporting a potential delay of 3 years until trains running (2022 vs 2019) between Oxford & Bedford and longer for links to Aylesbury:

The East West Rail Western Section, between Oxford and Bedford and Aylesbury and Milton Keynes, may be delayed by three to seven years after a Network Rail draft recommendation suggested the project should be delivered in three phases instead of two.

Local authorities in the East West Rail consortium understand that plans to deliver a route between Oxford and Bedford could be pushed back for completion in 2022, resulting in the Aylesbury-Milton Keynes track sent to 2024 and enhancements to the Aylesbury-Princes Risborough line delayed until 2026.

More at: http://www.railtechnologymagazine.c...rail-delivery-could-be-delayed-by-seven-years


Albeit rumour at this stage I wonder if this is what is starting to come out of the Hendy review, especially as MML and Transpennine seem to have priority, at least political priority.

 

[DarloRich]

Albeit rumour at this stage I wonder if this is what is starting to come out of the Hendy review, especially as MML and Transpennine seem to have priority, at least political priority.

i would assume so.

 

[route:oxford]

Railnews are reporting a potential delay of 3 years until trains running (2022 vs 2019) between Oxford & Bedford and longer for links to Aylesbury

Ok, that's Oxford to Bedford...

What's the position on Oxford to Bletchley & Milton Keynes? This is a key commuter corridor and the roads are dreadful.

 

[D1009]

Ok, that's Oxford to Bedford...

What's the position on Oxford to Bletchley & Milton Keynes? This is a key commuter corridor and the roads are dreadful.

Well as the route between Bletchley and Bedford is already operational, though will need upgrading, I would imagine the date would be the same.

 

[swt_passenger]

I thought the article was unclear, in that it gives the impression that EWR only provides for routes between Oxford and Bedford, and Aylesbury and Milton Keynes. A bit of a simplification of what is planned.

However it is re-assuring to find that the title of this thread was wrong all along...

 

[The Planner]

This is Hendy alright, it will nark the anti HS2 people too as it is likely they will go in and do a lot of prelim and actual work for bits of E-W. Can't see trains before 21 myself now.

 

[DarloRich]

This is Hendy alright, it will nark the anti HS2 people too as it is likely they will go in and do a lot of prelim and actual work for bits of E-W. Can't see trains before 21 myself now.

:cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry: I agree

 

[jimm]

Railnews are reporting a potential delay of 3 years until trains running (2022 vs 2019) between Oxford & Bedford and longer for links to Aylesbury:



More at: http://www.railtechnologymagazine.c...rail-delivery-could-be-delayed-by-seven-years


Albeit rumour at this stage I wonder if this is what is starting to come out of the Hendy review, especially as MML and Transpennine seem to have priority, at least political priority.

Hardly a rumour, the story is based on an official statement released today by the East West Consortium, who aren't likely to have said anything unless they felt they had good grounds to do so.

http://www.eastwestrail.org.uk/2015/11/03/east-west-rail-western-section-at-risk-of-delay/

 

[richieb1971]

Ah, so all those badgers that have moved out will be replaced by more badgers by 2019-2021 and onwards. The stuff that was removed like overgrown trees and such, will have grown back again...

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Ah, so all those badgers that have moved out will be replaced by more badgers by 2019-2021 and onwards. The stuff that was removed like overgrown trees and such, will have grown back again...

Isn't there a Top Gear forum you should be annoying instead with tales of your 220mph Vauxhall Nova 1.2 ?

There's no real shortage of permanent way contractors who can do the basic work - installing drainage, putting down the weed proof membranes, laying ballast and such like.

What there is a chronic shortage of is signalling engineers and electrification engineers, so the track can relatively easily be put into place, but it can't be connected up to the rest of the network.

 

[MarkRedon]

When I heard yesterday - first from Rail Technology Magazine and then from the Consortium website – I asked the Consortium what the facts were about phase 2 (the Western Section) and expressed concern that there was no mention of the subsequent phase, Bedford to Cambridge (the Central Section). I received the following reply:

Bedford BC - OFFICIAL-Unsecure

Dear Mr Gregory

Thank you for your email. We too are concerned at the potential delay to East West Rail, though final decisions are yet to be taken so we still have an opportunity to influence the outcome.

I suggest you write to your local MP and council leader. There will be more news coverage in the local press, on TV and radio this week, so you may wish to write to the newspapers in response to articles that appear. Are you connected to any business groups? Support from business leaders, owners and groups will be most helpful as we press the case for East West Rail.

I am interested in where you are based and what is your interest in East West Rail. The development work to identify the single preferred route of the Central Section is continuing apace, however, the case for the Central Section will be massively strengthened by the timely delivery of the Western Section.

If you have not already done so, please subscribe for email updates on EastWestRail.org.uk, so you will receive updates as and when there is news.

Thank you for getting in touch and for your support.

Kind regards
Caryl Jones
Communications Manager
East West Rail Consortium

So the actions for those of us who care that this project advance quickly – and that it really links up East with West – are clear.

It would seem that the Hendy review will reschedule a significant number of projects. It will presumably also highlight the underlying factors that are giving rise to these delays, which have of course been extensively discussed both in this thread and elsewhere in this forum.

This is Hendy alright, it will nark the anti HS2 people too as it is likely they will go in and do a lot of prelim and actual work for bits of E-W. Can't see trains before 21 myself now.

There's no real shortage of permanent way contractors who can do the basic work - installing drainage, putting down the weed proof membranes, laying ballast and such like.

What there is a chronic shortage of is signalling engineers and electrification engineers, so the track can relatively easily be put into place, but it can't be connected up to the rest of the network.

The other factor not mentioned in this particular thread but discussed elsewhere is the fact that Network Rail is now much more constrained in its access to capital than it was previously. In other words, it cannot spend itself out of trouble!

The warning signs concerning East-West were already apparent in another context, the concerns raised by the ORR:

One detail in the ORR findings which distinctly worries me is the significant overspend on the East-West project even before phase 2 (Bicester to Bletchley) gets really started. That suggests that the Oxford to Marylebone "new" railway has cost a lot more than it ought to have done. Why? And what can be done to reduce costs on future projects?

Concerning East-West rail, the ORR has had positive things to say:

“ORR has however also engaged with projects which will deliver on time and without the issues described in this section of the report. East West Rail phase 2 is an example where there has been positive engagement with ORR and NRAP since early 2014. The timetable for authorisation remains achievable. The project has been proactive in understanding where other projects have had difficulties and is learning from them.”

But among the negatives which it applies to this particular project among others are:

“NR has a critical role in these cross industry programmes, but it does not have a framework or programme lifecycle setting out how NR should be organised, governed and managed. Each major NR scheme appears to start from a ‘blank piece of paper’, with assumptions not adequately tested by timetable and performance modelling before infrastructure requirements are set; the management of programme-wide risks, assumptions and interdependencies are developed too late.”

Additionally, there would appear to be a significant cost overrun already associated with East-West Rail.

 

[CdBrux]

What there is a chronic shortage of is signalling engineers and electrification engineers, so the track can relatively easily be put into place, but it can't be connected up to the rest of the network.

If this was electrified before opening (i.e not during possessions, ...) does that make a difference or not - i.e. does it open the door to a wider pool of engineers?

 

[Philip Phlopp]

If this was electrified before opening (i.e not during possessions, ...) does that make a difference or not - i.e. does it open the door to a wider pool of engineers?

Not really, no.

The skills needed for OLE installation are subtly different from regular linesman with National Grid, things like droppers and tensioners are very different, whilst the actual running of catenary and contact wires are very similar to 33kV HV distribution.

 

[a good off]

Having Oxford to Bletchley reopened will provide a massive relief to the congested Banbury - Leamington route and be another way to send stuff when its all going wrong north of Oxford. XC and the FOC's should be lobbying the government over any potential delay.

 

[The Planner]

You have to get the freights across Oxford North and Bletchley first. Banbury resignalling and the improvements to Fenny Compton, Hatton and Dorridge loops will help to an extent.

 

[a good off]

You have to get the freights across Oxford North and Bletchley first. Banbury resignalling and the improvements to Fenny Compton, Hatton and Dorridge loops will help to an extent.

I appreciate that, however if the job is stopped north of Oxford North for whatever reason then it would be useful to send stuff into Birmingham via the WCML without having to go via Acton Wells.

 

[richieb1971]

How do railways get built to budget?

Shouldn't there be some firing going on by now?

 

[nuneatonmark]

Meanwhile in Scotland.....rail re-openings continue apace.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Meanwhile in Scotland.....rail re-openings continue apace.

But not necessarily to budget.
The new Alloa line was massively over budget (not built by Network Rail).
And it now needs rebuilding.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transp...ay-line-needs-rebuild-1-3139554#axzz3qbdYTRbn

ONE of Scotland’s newest railway lines will have to be largely rebuilt at a cost of up to £17 million – just five years after it was opened

 

[Philip Phlopp]

But not necessarily to budget.
The new Alloa line was massively over budget (not built by Network Rail).
And it now needs rebuilding.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transp...ay-line-needs-rebuild-1-3139554#axzz3qbdYTRbn

The route suffered from undiagnosed subsidence issues from old mine workings in the area, and some of the track has taken a hell of a battering from more coal trains than originally envisaged.

The rebuilding work being undertaken now isn't technically going to be needed in the future, because of Longannet's forthcoming closure, but it's already partially completed and the remainder committed to.

And how do railways get build to budget ?

Take off all the trains and remove all the passengers, and we could do it easily on time and on budget, the problems we're encountering is ambition and necessity getting ahead of reality - we plan CP5 works years in advance, you can see the 2017 engineering works upto December 2017, and because December 2017 includes some works connected with December 2017, New Year 2018 and Easter 2018 enabling works, you can see that we're actively planning, in detail, works 2.5 years in advance.

Then DfT, TOCs, FOCs and open-access operations come in and want to run more services over and above those which we're planning our possessions around, and suddenly there needs to be paths found for an ECS service somewhere or other, a last service needs OLE which shortens further what we can do.

It also needs to be remembered we're doing works on a 150 year old, 180 year old, sometimes over 200 year old structures (in the case of some of the old canals converted into railways) and what we find, despite enormous numbers of surveys is that we find a section which has been poorly repaired, that previously forgotten drains or remants of old structures come back to haunt us, and as with Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine, mine workings - after all, the railway was often built to serve a mine or quarry, those old workings then haunt us decades later.

 

[Cherry_Picker]

Meanwhile in Scotland.....rail re-openings continue apace.

Seems like a strange comment to make, I presume the implication is the Scottish can do something that the English are incapable of or something?

The biggest engineering farce of the 21st century to date was a high profile one in the capital of Scotland. Yeah, I know it's light rail but that's besides the point. Infrastructure is difficult wherever you try to build it. Sometimes there are problems and often these problems are avoidable but please don't try to make out it's only in England where such things happen because it's demonstrably untrue.

 

[CdBrux]

Then DfT, TOCs, FOCs and open-access operations come in and want to run more services over and above those which we're planning our possessions around, and suddenly there needs to be paths found for an ECS service somewhere or other, a last service needs OLE which shortens further what we can do.

.

As someone who works in industrial production planning then this is something I have heard the equivalent of many times before from our engineers. 'Things' happen to get in the way of the ideal. The key then was/is to persuade our engineers to plan based on what in reality more often than not does happen vs what they would like to happen and to make it known we would rather have a more realistic closure time / learning curve / cost estimation / output rate vs the theoretical best, the key being to deliver on commitments.

This also requires then from all parties strong 'change management' processes to stop scope creep of any kind vs the original (clearly laid out) assumptions which all parties should have bought into.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

As someone who works in industrial production planning then this is something I have heard the equivalent of many times before from our engineers. 'Things' happen to get in the way of the ideal. The key then was/is to persuade our engineers to plan based on what in reality more often than not does happen vs what they would like to happen and to make it known we would rather have a more realistic closure time / learning curve / cost estimation / output rate vs the theoretical best, the key being to deliver on commitments.

This also requires then from all parties strong 'change management' processes to stop scope creep of any kind vs the original (clearly laid out) assumptions which all parties should have bought into.

Planning what will happen on the railway - if I could do that, I'd have also managed to repeatedly predict the winning numbers on the Euromillions.

You would be as well rolling a dice as relying on paths and timetables to work out what's going to be happening any given day, month or year, added to that derailments, shunting accidents, SPADs, RTCs amongst engineering staff, hydraulic fittings which don't work, Speedy Hire proving repeatedly their name is a cruel prank and so it goes on.

 

[67018]

As someone who works in industrial production planning then this is something I have heard the equivalent of many times before from our engineers. 'Things' happen to get in the way of the ideal. The key then was/is to persuade our engineers to plan based on what in reality more often than not does happen vs what they would like to happen and to make it known we would rather have a more realistic closure time / learning curve / cost estimation / output rate vs the theoretical best, the key being to deliver on commitments.

This also requires then from all parties strong 'change management' processes to stop scope creep of any kind vs the original (clearly laid out) assumptions which all parties should have bought into.

But working against that is the fact that, if work is planned with adequate contingency built in, it then comes out as taking too long/costing too much and either the whole thing doesn't get approved, or the plans and costings get squeezed.

Industrial production is a repeated process that can be refined and estimates progressively improved. There's a world of difference in a project where everything is a one-off and the variables are massive.

 

[CdBrux]

To clarify I was talking about projects related work rather than day to day industrial production. We used to get from the engineers "Well, if all goes well it should take x days shutdown, then a learning curve like this".

The reality was that something invariably did not go to plan and that's fine, as you say there is often little that can be done about such things. It doesn't matter what that the precise something is (it's different each time) but we could reasonably confidently state that the shutdown would be, say, x+10% days and the learning curve shallower and longer based on history. So we built those assumptions into the planning because it reflected the reality of the macro situation based on experience. (**)

It's all very well saying that if you build it in from the start then it wouldn't get approved - you are only reflecting the reality and maybe it should be approved in that form, then you can have a fact based discussion on how to bring costs down - for example can longer possesions be the answer? - or what alternatives there are.

Constant overruns and overspends have, in the longer term, I would suggest a far more detrimental effect to credibility as numbers for future projects simply won't be believed (and who can blame this reaction?) so someone else, who knows way less, will just add on a % anyway and approve or otherwise projects according to their added on %.

Squeezing plans and costings (or not) is then a behavioural issue for the 'management'.


** one of the things I think we needed to address when making such a change to our culture was that an engineer will typically think in micro detail (specifics) and wants to commit of not to specific events rather than that 'something unknown may happen'. But ultimately it's only the same as building in contingency times and planning to a good project plan.

 

[D1009]

You would be as well rolling a dice as relying on paths and timetables to work out what's going to be happening any given day, month or year, added to that derailments, shunting accidents, SPADs, RTCs amongst engineering staff, hydraulic fittings which don't work, Speedy Hire proving repeatedly their name is a cruel prank and so it goes on.

Sorry, what are RTC's?

 

[nuneatonmark]

Seems like a strange comment to make, I presume the implication is the Scottish can do something that the English are incapable of or something?

The biggest engineering farce of the 21st century to date was a high profile one in the capital of Scotland. Yeah, I know it's light rail but that's besides the point. Infrastructure is difficult wherever you try to build it. Sometimes there are problems and often these problems are avoidable but please don't try to make out it's only in England where such things happen because it's demonstrably untrue.

The Edinburgh trams comparison is not a good one. Is there ONE major rail infrastructure project going well in England at the moment? Northern electrification - delayed, overbudget? GWML -delayed, overbudget, MML - delayed and overbudget, opening two bleedin' new stations between Coventry and Nuneaton - delayed, HS2 - god knows when. Sorry, there is one - the Chiltern Oxford project, the exception that proves the rule!

 

[HSTEd]

The Edinburgh trams comparison is not a good one. Is there ONE major rail infrastructure project going well in England at the moment? Northern electrification - delayed, overbudget? GWML -delayed, overbudget, MML - delayed and overbudget, opening two bleedin' new stations between Coventry and Nuneaton - delayed, HS2 - god knows when. Sorry, there is one - the Chiltern Oxford project, the exception that proves the rule!

Borders Rail - England is not the only place rail projects blow their budgets by enormous margins.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The Edinburgh trams comparison is not a good one. Is there ONE major rail infrastructure project going well in England at the moment?

CrossRail

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The Edinburgh trams comparison is not a good one. Is there ONE major rail infrastructure project going well in England at the moment? Northern electrification - delayed, overbudget? GWML -delayed, overbudget, MML - delayed and overbudget, opening two bleedin' new stations between Coventry and Nuneaton - delayed, HS2 - god knows when. Sorry, there is one - the Chiltern Oxford project, the exception that proves the rule!

I thought the ORR said even the Chiltern Oxford project was over budget?
And therefore damaging other CP5 projects.
You can add the Wrexham-Chester Redoubling to the delayed/overbudget list, and most resignalling projects.
Maybe the Stafford/Norton Bridge project will be the exception (not finished yet).