I agree that London MK will grow rapidly and then even more money will have to be found ,Quainton is a definite non starter Aylesbury Parkway has become the railhead for north of AYLESBURY commuters.But the real point is that descoping has reduced a project that offered a real opportunity to revitalise therail network in Nth Bucks to half hearted cock up nutured by civil servants .
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East-West Rail (EWR): Consultation updates [not speculation]
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Leslie Fletcher
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I did also include the key proviso "countries which, like the UK, can borrow in their own currency" on which all your examples fail.
On this topic Paul Krugman, receiver of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, says
"We know that advanced economies with stable governments that borrow in their own currency are capable of running up very high levels of debt without crisis." UK government debt is nowhere near any kind of crisis level.
Cutting back funding for EWR, or other worthwhile infrastructure project, is a political decision and not the result of some inexorable law of economics.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
what silliness! Is it possible to apply to the department of messing things up and annoying people? I think I could be a natural.
Railwaysceptic
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If a loop becomes necessary, the Quainton Road area would be ideal. The entire formation from Aylesbury to Claydon Junction was originally two
track, so there should be no major problem anywhere along there.
jyte
Member
I don't want to get off topic here, but Quantitate Easing is far more complicated than just 'printing money'. Sure, governments can and do 'print money', generally to keep track with natural inflation and ensure the money supply in an economy remains viable. Printing money to get yourself out of debt or in any large quantity is stupid and causes inflation, often hyper-inflation.
Regarding borrowing: The UK's credit rating is now AA (down from AA+, which was down from AAA, mostly due to the B-word), with our gov debt something like 88% of GDP - that's high, probably a little too high, but it's not as high as France, the US (105%) or Japan (200%). Bear in mind last time I looked at this was about 2 years ago so figures might need updating. Crucially, there's confidence in the UK as an economy (less than 2 years ago mind) that means that creditors are still willing to lend us money - what helps is our governments fiscal policies and their 'commitment' to tackling deficit. A government that doesn't 'care' about debt is going to have less confidence in it by lenders. The UK can borrow money for HS2, HS3, third runway....really whatever it likes.
THAT BEING said: THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT SHOULD. There's a whole variety of reasons why, most of them not to do with borrowing at all.
With regards to EWR, I'm most disappointed by its demotion as an electric railway, rather than the removal of freight loops.
Regarding borrowing: The UK's credit rating is now AA (down from AA+, which was down from AAA, mostly due to the B-word), with our gov debt something like 88% of GDP - that's high, probably a little too high, but it's not as high as France, the US (105%) or Japan (200%). Bear in mind last time I looked at this was about 2 years ago so figures might need updating. Crucially, there's confidence in the UK as an economy (less than 2 years ago mind) that means that creditors are still willing to lend us money - what helps is our governments fiscal policies and their 'commitment' to tackling deficit. A government that doesn't 'care' about debt is going to have less confidence in it by lenders. The UK can borrow money for HS2, HS3, third runway....really whatever it likes.
THAT BEING said: THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT SHOULD. There's a whole variety of reasons why, most of them not to do with borrowing at all.
With regards to EWR, I'm most disappointed by its demotion as an electric railway, rather than the removal of freight loops.
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DarloRich
Veteran Member
Whilst i don't disagree surely it only works as an electric railway if it has somewhere suitability electrified at each end?
jyte
Member
If they leave 'passive' provision for wiring in the 'new' sections of the line I don't really care. Yes, the deferment of GWEP to Oxford is a shame and honestly should have made me see the writing on the wall earlier regarding wires. I always felt the proposed 125mph electric railway seemed a little excessive.
Fairly extensive modelling was done before the train service pattern was established and even if they have underestimated demand, I would expect what might develop are tidal commuting flows, ie towards Milton Keynes in the morning and out the other way at the end of the afternoon.
It is perfectly possible to develop a service to deal with this sort of thing - look at the current Cotswold Line timetable - and do it on single track - Wolvercot junction (Oxford) to Charlbury is the best part of 11 miles, so there is no reason you couldn't slot in a peak extra or two from Aylesbury to Milton Keynes and still not need to build a loop, or have double track.
I think 125mph is not excessive - this could hugely relieve the XC network, New St etc - and add service rather than diverting it. It gives a new second trunk to the cross country network and opens up countless possibilities. There are good terminating places throughout which could have capacity for more.
It might also herald the viability of such enthusiast gems as Oxford to Bristol, for instance. There are a lot of successful, prosperous places across this arc (indeed Bristol and Bath are the beginnings) - which helps to increase access to non-London jobs and connect places without London being involved.
HS2 is only going to funnel London commuting and London-centricity. E/W is so important in terms of boosting other locations which in their own ways have very healthy economies, and differing ones - in some ways, it's the Southern Powerhouse... tongue in cheek, but there are plenty of places south of the Midlands which are also neglected.
That would be lovely. However, a significant fraction of the money to build the railway, is from developers building houses along the route, they will want to see frequent stops for commuters, rather than 125mph trains that stop 15 miles away.
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The Planner
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You wont get a whole lot more out of 125 vs 100 between Bicester and Bletchley to be worth it.
I know that Chiltern have aspirations for electric trains to Brum but I am not holding my breath on it happening but I do hope that the wires reach Oxford quickly as then maybe the EWR can follow on.A loop could be put in place on the site of Waddesdon Station incedentaly this is were the constructors line branched off when they were building Waddesdon Manor and all stone etc came this way.
coppercapped
Established Member
And anyway this video on Youtube makes it clear that 125mph won't happen because the required alignment cannot be fitted into the existing width of the route and land purchases would be needed over about a third of the route.
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Thank you for your info and kind words . does anyone please have a link to the photos of that line being worked on.
Where does it start n end and is this part of the East West rail ? sorry my illness affects
My memory quite a lot .
But I recall years ago aspley guise being really overgrown but still ancient trains running along it . We went to a dreadful.dog sanctury there circa 1985 ( late) early 86. the sanctity got closed down due to conditions ( off topic sorry) . But Bletchley I don't remember the flyover was it useable by trains from Bletchley station needing to cross the mainline for the east West route ? .
I think a map would be useful lol.
I ask about pictures as I recall a pretty large series on here but where I cannot sadly find.
Pity it wasn't electrified like Airdrie- Bathgate .
Also off topic I wish they'd use HST 's when they are fully in service on the Borders route a total no brainer
better acceleration and breaking will easily fit all stations yet be bigger and provide the much needed capacity . With higher speeds too probably able to corner easier at speed they might be able to reduce journey times . It would certainly grab more passengers and hasten the extension.
As would cascading some to this route being discussed
DarloRich
Veteran Member
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Bedford-Bletchley is still very much running (Apsley Guise is on that bit) and not overgrown - Network Rail and LM looked after it really well so far as a basket-case branch line goes, with new modern signage and electronic PIS even at Kempston Hardwick! It's very much not the railway of th 1980s.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
We got new benches at Fenny Stratford because the shelter is so often full beyond capacity
What was the line speed for timetabled DMU services before closure?
muddythefish
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I'm well aware of the difference thank you. I must say I find your abrasive posts when you are crossed or proved wrong very tiresome.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
No first generation DMU ever (officially) went above 70mph, so answering this question doesn't help with whether the reopened line should be 100mph or 125mph.
muddythefish
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The British Disease indeed......chronic under investment in infrastructure, expediency instead of ambition, no long-term vision, excessive focus on cost. Building a double track railway isn't "gold-plating", it's doing a proper job to cater for future growth that ought to include cross country inter city trains as well as local services and freight. The EWR cop-out is a classic example of why we're on the way to becoming a third rate nation
I didn't ask it to settle that discussion, but for some context. Whatever the speed is for the new line, it will be an improvement on what went before.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
So please, using your undoubted knowledge, explain where the money to build the line you want to see is going to come from because that is the issue those of us living in the real world and trying to deliver projects like this have to face. Money, especially public money and especially public money under a conservative government is finite.
It is fine to have ideas but what I find tiresome is the inability of many posters, you included, to understand that point.
We can easily afford a double track electrified EW rail with a suitably high linespeed. I don't want to stray onto non-rail topics, but I can think of several transport & non-transport areas of government spending that I actually consider to be harmful - ie diverting spending away from them would automatically be beneficial. The money is there. The decisions about what to spend it on are political.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
indeed, but there in lies the issue - the government decides where the money get spent and how much each department gets to spend
Oxford to Bicester and Bletchley to Bedford are both parts of East West Rail. (There is a short new curve that has been built at Bicester, enabling trains from Oxford to join the Chiltern main line to London Marylebone; this curve will not be part of the main East-West route.)
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We perhaps all have those lists but we perhaps all have different ones. Not much point in arguing about them in a railway forum.
Andyjs247
Member
Indeed. HMG has just agreed £1bn funding; on top of £100m in 2016. Am I missing something or is this really not enough to fund the double track electrified Railway we were supposed to be getting?
Rational Plan
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The East West Rail and expressway are part of building links betwenn the high tech high growth towns North and West of London. This area classified as ROSE (Rest Of South East) in geography terms has been a population growth zone since the late 1960's . The government is not laying down billions of cash and not getting any tax generating output back. The plan is for this infrastructure to allow to fit in another 2 million people in the next 30 years or so.
The rail line is seen as important as improving links between city centres and the expressway for linking business and industrial parks etc. These routes are expected to lined with dense housing and business development. There's an interesting EasWest rail document testing different new town build options.
This strteches from over 50 small new towns over 30,000 up to 8 new towns the size of Reading to just two new cities of almost a million each, one at a massivley rebuilt Sandy/ St Neots and another at Calvert, also implying a new station of HS2 in such a case.
What I find most likely is that the first big push will occur around Milton Keynes as that already had the base infrastructure and an almost exceptance that it will expand (earlier talk has already been about expanding it to 400,000 people) . I expect MK to grow to 500,000. There's a lot of talk at rebuilding Sandy , so expect something there. Clavert/Quintain is just to tempting with all it's flat land half between Oxford and MK, exoect a lrge new town here at some level.
For example with C2 - C semmingly the favourite route for the new rail line, Bassingbourn near Royston has been suggested as new town of 31000 on an old MOD site.
Either way the new rail line is going to an intensive fast commuter route. I can see a max of four new railway stations and associacted new towns. Some scenarios see a new express line South of parts of the Marshton Vale line and the old line converted into a tram train line with tens of thousands of new houses, South of Bedford.
The rail line is seen as important as improving links between city centres and the expressway for linking business and industrial parks etc. These routes are expected to lined with dense housing and business development. There's an interesting EasWest rail document testing different new town build options.
This strteches from over 50 small new towns over 30,000 up to 8 new towns the size of Reading to just two new cities of almost a million each, one at a massivley rebuilt Sandy/ St Neots and another at Calvert, also implying a new station of HS2 in such a case.
What I find most likely is that the first big push will occur around Milton Keynes as that already had the base infrastructure and an almost exceptance that it will expand (earlier talk has already been about expanding it to 400,000 people) . I expect MK to grow to 500,000. There's a lot of talk at rebuilding Sandy , so expect something there. Clavert/Quintain is just to tempting with all it's flat land half between Oxford and MK, exoect a lrge new town here at some level.
For example with C2 - C semmingly the favourite route for the new rail line, Bassingbourn near Royston has been suggested as new town of 31000 on an old MOD site.
Either way the new rail line is going to an intensive fast commuter route. I can see a max of four new railway stations and associacted new towns. Some scenarios see a new express line South of parts of the Marshton Vale line and the old line converted into a tram train line with tens of thousands of new houses, South of Bedford.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
A new station on HS2 would reduce the capacity significantly on its busiest section, unless all trains or every second train was to stop, which would most likely be a considerable over-provision of service. So it's very unlikely to happen. A station near Calvert served by the EWR and Marylebone trains would give reasonable connectivity, including towards Birmingham with a change at MK.
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