East West Rail - possible future service patterns?

[Mgameing123]

The number of people wanting to travel between Milton Keynes and Reading is small, not infinitesimally so, but small never the less. MK to Guildford though is absolutely infinitesimally small. And would almost certainly be quicker via London.

Extending EWR services from Oxford onto Swindon, Bristol or even Reading is a recipe for disaster - it will kill the reliability. The MK - Oxford service needs to be kept as self contained as possible to stop it becoming beholden to delays from miles away. The only possible extension (though I suspect pathing and timing will make it unviable) would be to Northampton where you could easily reverse the service.

Same goes for the Cambridge leg when / if that ever happens. Extending onto Ipswich, Norwich or anywhere else further east is going to be asking for trouble.

On Cowley - I thought extending the Chiltern services from Marylebone was originally proposed as the way to serve that ?

I think we should merge the EWR service with the 1 per hour North Downs Gatwick fast service. It would give new journey opportunities that weren’t possible before without changing trains.

 

[HST43257]

I think we should merge the EWR service with the 1 per hour North Downs Gatwick fast service. It would give new journey opportunities that weren’t possible before without changing trains.

Cambridge to Gatwick, via the very direct route of Winslow, Tilehurst and Dorking Deepdeene

 

[A S Leib]

The only possible extension (though I suspect pathing and timing will make it unviable) would be to Northampton where you could easily reverse the service.

Can trains be reversed at Wolverton? I don't know if there's enough demand from there, either to MKC or beyond outside London, for more than the current service though.

 

[Farigiraf]

While I think that extending EWR services south towards Swindon/Reading will be operationally very difficult and also rather pointless, once EWR is mostly completed I would definitely like to see better connecting services from Oxford over the Didcot west curve to Swindon/Bristol, therefore retaining EWR's main purpose, while also removing the Euston/King's Cross/St Pancras to Paddington via Elizabeth Line or Sub-Surface lines slog, which is quite a trek especially with luggage.

 

[Mgameing123]

Cambridge to Gatwick, via the very direct route of Winslow, Tilehurst and Dorking Deepdeene

Im thinking more journeys like Gatwick to Oxford and Bicester, Milton Keynes/Cambridge to Reading, Guildford and Reading to Bicester.

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Cambridge to Gatwick, via the very direct route of Winslow, Tilehurst and Dorking Deepdeene

but it would be more realistic with the Milton Keynes service being merged with North Downs Line.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Oct 2024 ==

While I think that extending EWR services south towards Swindon/Reading will be operationally very difficult and also rather pointless, once EWR is mostly completed I would definitely like to see better connecting services from Oxford over the Didcot west curve to Swindon/Bristol, therefore retaining EWR's main purpose, while also removing the Euston/King's Cross/St Pancras to Paddington via Elizabeth Line or Sub-Surface lines slog, which is quite a trek especially with luggage.

Maybe for the Cambridge services yes but to Reading and Gatwick could provide a good orbital connection around Greater London.

 

[Fermiboson]

There's diversion potential for XC if Kenilworth/Coventry ever has issues, by going Oxford - Bletchley - MK - Nuneaton (interchange with Leicester XCs) - Tamworth (Interchange with Notts/WY XCs) - Stafford - Stoke - etc. - but I imagine if Coventry is out then paths in the Trent Valley aren't exactly going to be plentiful either.

4tph for a new line seems far too low of a capacity. What is the bottleneck here?

 

[mwmbwls]

There's diversion potential for XC if Kenilworth/Coventry ever has issues, by going Oxford - Bletchley - MK - Nuneaton (interchange with Leicester XCs) - Tamworth (Interchange with Notts/WY XCs) - Stafford - Stoke - etc. - but I imagine if Coventry is out then paths in the Trent Valley aren't exactly going to be plentiful either.

4tph for a new line seems far too low of a capacity. What is the bottleneck here?

The problem is when pinch points elide. IIRC - Level Crossing closure times at Biscester were a significant issue that had ramifications.

 

[Falcon1200]

Until Didcot/Oxford is electrified, the Oxford/Milton Keynes service could be combined with the Didcot/Oxford locals (admittedly not as simple since half the latter were withdrawn and replaced by stops on the Oxford/Paddington fast trains). Looking further ahead, extending to Swindon, whether calling at Didcot or not, would provide good connectional opportunities (and perhaps another reason to re-open Wantage Road!!)

 

[The Planner]

There's diversion potential for XC if Kenilworth/Coventry ever has issues, by going Oxford - Bletchley - MK - Nuneaton (interchange with Leicester XCs) - Tamworth (Interchange with Notts/WY XCs) - Stafford - Stoke - etc. - but I imagine if Coventry is out then paths in the Trent Valley aren't exactly going to be plentiful either.

4tph for a new line seems far too low of a capacity. What is the bottleneck here?

They would go via Solihull like they do now.

 

[FlyingPotato]

Assuming diesel trains

Between Oxford and Birmingham New Street
Which would be faster

The current XC routes via either Solihull or Kenilworth

Or using East West Rail and running Oxford, Milton Keynes, Rugby Birmingham New Street. Assuming the stopping pattern is something like Oxford, Bicester, Bletchley , Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry, Birmingham International and Birmingham New Street

 

[The Planner]

Assuming diesel trains

Between Oxford and Birmingham New Street
Which would be faster

The current XC routes via either Solihull or Kenilworth

Or using East West Rail and running Oxford, Milton Keynes, Rugby Birmingham New Street. Assuming the stopping pattern is something like Oxford, Bicester, Bletchley , Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry, Birmingham International and Birmingham New Street

Solihull by a long way.

 

[FlyingPotato]

Solihull by a long way.

So no long term future possibility of a XC type Service from the South to the North via East West Rail and the WCML

 

[The Planner]

So no long term future possibility of a XC type Service from the South to the North via East West Rail and the WCML

Not in my opinion.

 

[Nottingham59]

So no long term future possibility of a XC type Service from the South to the North via East West Rail and the WCML

Only if it missed out Birmingham - which would not be practical.

But then, long-distance traffic between Birmingham and Manchester will migrate to HS2 from Curzon St over time. So I don't see that an XC through service from the south to the North West will be viable in the long term in any case.

 

[Fermiboson]

They would go via Solihull like they do now.

IF XC goes back to 2tph I imagine there are not enough paths via Solihul. (1tp2h currently?)

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Only if it missed out Birmingham - which would not be practical.

But then, long-distance traffic between Birmingham and Manchester will migrate to HS2 from Curzon St over time. So I don't see that an XC through service from the south to the North West will be viable in the long term in any case.

I think missing Birmingham is not necessarily an idea killer - especially if Chiltern becomes a diesel island and XC want electric fleet to Manchester.

 

[swt_passenger]

So no long term future possibility of a XC type Service from the South to the North via East West Rail and the WCML

No. The possibility was mentioned in EWR early publicity but was explicitly removed by DfT by the time the TWA order was applied for, the TWA Inspector’s report drew attention to a few downgrades (of which that was one).

 

[Merle Haggard]

Solihull by a long way.

An interesting question is where, towards the North on the WCML, the boundary is for using E&W rather than XC to provide a faster service to Oxford and beyond would be. Obviously Coventry & further North passengers would continue to use XC, it's surely quicker; but what about Rugby or Northampton? The present timetable(M-F at least) provides a cross-platform, about 10 minute, connection between a down LNw train and a Southbound XC one; how will the connections/journey times work via E&W?

 

[JonathanH]

With a fleet of six 2-coach trains for the foreseeable future, do EWR want any passengers to divert from existing routes to go via Winslow, other than those actually needing Oxford, Milton Keynes and the intermediate stations?

 

[Fermiboson]

With a fleet of six 2-coach trains for the foreseeable future, do EWR want any passengers to divert from existing routes to go via Winslow, other than those actually needing Oxford, Milton Keynes and the intermediate stations?

They will get them whether they like it or not, especially if GWR's Bristol directs become a regular thing.

 

[JonathanH]

They will get them whether they like it or not, especially if GWR's Bristol directs become a regular thing.

If Bristol to Oxford has never really got off the ground, why does extension to Milton Keynes make a Bristol to Oxford service more viable?

Moreover, I thought that the forum's desire is for GWR to focus on having enough 80x to avoid 5-coach trains on London services to South Wales and the West Country, rather than committing them to new routes.

 

[Fermiboson]

If Bristol to Oxford has never really got off the ground, why does extension to Milton Keynes make a Bristol to Oxford service more viable?

Moreover, I thought that the forum's desire is for GWR to focus is on having enough 80x to avoid 5-coach trains on London services to South Wales and the West Country, rather than committing them to new routes.

Because Bristol to Oxford puts virtually all destinations in South Wales and the South West within two changes of MK, Bletchley and Bedford.

The forum is not a monolith, and set shortages do not and should not have to be solved by providing a barebones service.

 

[A S Leib]

With a fleet of six 2-coach trains for the foreseeable future, do EWR want any passengers to divert from existing routes to go via Winslow, other than those actually needing Oxford, Milton Keynes and the intermediate stations?

Depending on how much more expensive than buses via Aylesbury it ends up being, I might switch to that route for Hemel Hempstead – Oxford, although a) that's probably a small flow, b) not one they'd serve directly (means not serving MKC, reversing, taking up slots on southern WCML when nobody would go between London and Oxford via Bletchley) and c) with the £2 bus cap, Hemel – Aylesbury – Oxford by bus is cheaper than Hemel – Bletchley by itself by train with a railcard.

 

[Nottingham59]

But what else might be feasible?

When HS2 starts, I can see quite a lot of capacity becoming available on the WCML. So it might make sense to run EWR services between Northampton and Oxford.

Perhaps extend to Didcot at the southern end by merging with the Oxford-Didcot shuttle to give between better interchange to Swindon and Bristol. Going any further south would just interfere with the mainline flows.

I wouldn't expect EWR to go up the MML beyond Bedford, though. Or beyond Cambridge if EWR ever gets that far.

 

[A0]

Because Bristol to Oxford puts virtually all destinations in South Wales and the South West within two changes of MK, Bletchley and Bedford.

The forum is not a monolith, and set shortages do not and should not have to be solved by providing a barebones service.

Bit in bold - except they are already within 2 changes - via Faringdon and Elizabeth Line for Bedford and via Euston then H&C / Circle to Paddington or Northern Line to Waterloo.

 

[A0]

When HS2 starts, I can see quite a lot of capacity becoming available on the WCML. So it might make sense to run EWR services between Northampton and Oxford.

Perhaps extend to Didcot at the southern end by merging with the Oxford-Didcot shuttle to give between better interchange to Swindon and Bristol. Going any further south would just interfere with the mainline flows.

I wouldn't expect EWR to go up the MML beyond Bedford, though. Or beyond Cambridge if EWR ever gets that far.

Bit in bold, perhaps you could tell us where you're seeing this, because AIUI that capacity is already being spoken for....

 

[Nottingham59]

Bit in bold, perhaps you could tell us where you're seeing this, because AIUI that capacity is already being spoken for....

My thinking is that all the premium traffic will go via HS2, so ticket income will collapse and current levels of service on the WCML will not be economically viable. Just look what happened to the classic network in France after the TGV revolution.

There may be hypothetical WCML timetables after HS2, suggesting more or less the same level of service as now, but without massively increased public subsidy it ain't going to happen. And with Colwich Junction constraining the whole network, every train on HS2 north of Delta Junction means one fewer train on the Trent Valley north of Lichfield.

And because it will carry far fewer non-stop express services, the southern WCML fasts will have a more consistent calling pattern, and thus be able to carry more trains per hour than they do now So there will be increased capacity available for new routing opportunities.

It all depends on ticket pricing policy, of course. But I can't see the government of the day / GBR undermining HS2 by pricing traffic away from all those gleaming new 400m trainsets.

 

[A S Leib]

My thinking is that all the premium traffic will go via HS2, so ticket income will collapse and current levels of service on the WCML will not be economically viable. Just look what happened to the classic network in France after the TGV revolution.

At the bare minimum I'd expect 1 tph for Coventry / Wolverhampton to London (and Blackpool + Birmingham – Scotland; don't know if that service would have been axed with Phase 2 or without due to Warrington), 1 tph for Chester and 2 tph for Milton Keynes (Watford Junction, Rugby) – north west / Trent Valley – London to stay on classic lines, so that's 4 classic intercity tph from Euston vs 9 tph now (assuming 3 tph to Birmingham and regular hourly Chester). A reduction, sure, but I don't think it will be enough for tonnes to go to EWR, especially bearing freight and services from Northampton / Milton Keynes to London in mind.

That being said, is there more capacity on the WCML north of Tring than south due to the 2 tph terminating there? Does that mean there's any space north of Bletchley, or is that taken up by freight / other services north of Coventry / Nuneaton?

 

[cle]

It’s not really EWR but the rumoured Oxford-Moor St service could in theory start back at Swindon if helpful for connectivity.

When we say Bristol-Oxford hasn’t taken off, are we talking about today’s Sat services or the efforts 20 years ago in what was another era? And all conditions different? Does that same poster eat humble pie for every reopening? Things change.


But I think Bristol / EWR / MKC could be a winner, in time.

 

[RailWonderer]

I think better connections is better than a long through service that requires more rolling stock and suffers more delays.
I'd have one tph Oxford - Bedford calling at Bicester Village, Winslow, Bletchley, Woburn Sands and Bedford.
The other tph would call at most of the Marston Vale stations in addition and reduce one of two of the quietest stops on the MV to a few calls per day, or alternating calls so the full Oxford - Bedford on the slower service isn't too slow.

 

[Nottingham59]

At the bare minimum I'd expect 1 tph for Coventry / Wolverhampton to London (and Blackpool + Birmingham – Scotland; don't know if that service would have been axed with Phase 2 or without due to Warrington), 1 tph for Chester and 2 tph for Milton Keynes (Watford Junction, Rugby) – north west / Trent Valley – London to stay on classic lines, so that's 4 classic intercity tph from Euston vs 9 tph now (assuming 3 tph to Birmingham and regular hourly Chester). A reduction, sure, but I don't think it will be enough for tonnes to go to EWR, especially bearing freight and services from Northampton / Milton Keynes to London in mind.

That being said, is there more capacity on the WCML north of Tring than south due to the 2 tph terminating there? Does that mean there's any space north of Bletchley, or is that taken up by freight / other services north of Coventry / Nuneaton?

4tph long distance / Intercity on the fasts sounds about right to me.

That would leave space on the fasts to carry up to 4tph 125mph commuter shuttles, non-stop to MKC, reversing in platform 5; and say 2tph express shuttles calling at MKC, Wolverton and Northampton.

With that level of non-stop service to MKC on the fasts, any passenger trains on the slows north of Leighton Buzzard will be nearly empty. So at least half of them could terminate at Bletchley on Platform 4, leaving plenty of capacity on the slows for EWR trains from Oxford and Aylesbury to reach MKC and maybe Northampton.

Well that's my thinking at any rate. Others may have different views.