Election 2024: Predict your local seats

[nw1]

Regarding Hampshire, the OP left out Eastleigh which could swing to the Lib Dems along with Winchester.

I didn't:

Eastleigh - more difficult as it was Lib Dem for a good while. Lib Dems still control the council. However Tory majorities in recent years have been quite large, and it's perhaps the sort of seat which has trended Tory in recent years. On the other hand the MP is a first-timer and is not particularly well known. Will say Con hold, but with a much reduced majority.

 

[Snow1964]

Will have a guess at my local area, (live within few miles of various constituencies), there have been lots of boundary changes and some new ones are also made up of two halves of different existing constituencies, to create extra one due to population

Chippenham - Conservative > Lib Dem
Melksham & Devizes very tight between Conservative or Lib Dem
Bath stay Lib Dem
Bath (south) and NE Somerset, likely Conservative, poss LibDem
Frome & East Somerset Probably LibDem (Somerton had by-election)
Wiltshire South West staying Conservative.

 

[Irascible]

We find ourselves in the new constituency of East Exeter and Exmouth and I’m struggling to work out which candidate to vote for (I will be voting to cause the current government the maximum possible amount of damage with my one vote).

Does anyone have any thoughts?

That is the sort of thing they held a ballot about somewhere in s. Devon recently. I think you're probably just going to have to look at a map & see what the votes were like in the overlapping areas... Exeter's tricky by being generally red, but yes I don't envy your choice atm. At least it's not got Budleigh, presumably...

 

[bspahh]

We find ourselves in the new constituency of East Exeter and Exmouth and I’m struggling to work out which candidate to vote for (I will be voting to cause the current government the maximum possible amount of damage with my one vote).

Does anyone have any thoughts?

From the odds at Oddschecker.com the Conservatives are the favourites (1.29 with decimal odds), with the Liberal Democrats second (4.5) and Labour 3rd (10).

https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001232?postcode=EX8 1AD says Labour has a 61% chance of winning, Conservative 35%, Reform UK 3% and 1% for the Liberal Democrats.

https://tactical.vote/exmouth-and-exeter-east/ and https://tacticalvote.co.uk/#ExmouthExeterEast are not sure yet

 

[Thirteen]

I don’t live there, but I predict: Islington North - Jeremy Corbyn (IND).

I get the sense Corbyn is the sort of person who will never retire, it'll take the Grim Reaper to have a new MP take his place in Islington North.

 

[Snow1964]

Exeter's tricky by being generally red,

Like all cities assume the university student population has gone back to their parents for the summer by July.

 

[The Ham]

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies

Has my local constituency as 1/200 (on) a Labour win (hold). Scarcely worth wearing out the shoe leather to go out and vote on Election Day! Foregone conclusion!

In such a safe seat there's two things which makes voting for another part still worth doing. Firstly any party which has at least one MP gets some money for every vote cast across the UK, the second is that if enough people vote for that candidate they don't lose their deposit.

Moving a bit north and east from my immediate local area, I'd guess that the rest of Hampshire will remain solid Tory, so there will be only 4 non-Tory seats in the county (Southampton Test and Itchen, Winchester and Portsmouth South).

Perhaps a bit more of interest in western Surrey.

Esher and Walton will I suspect go Lib Dem, given the small majority last time - though one-question mark is how much people were put off by Raab, who is not standing this time.
Guildford has been Lib Dem, briefly, before and being a university town and quite cosmopolitan place I suspect will go Lib Dem with a fairly decent majority. Additionally, the current Tory is a first-timer, the long-standing previous Tory MP having stood unsuccessfully as an independent last time.
Woking is also a pretty large place and is well-connected, plus the council have been Lib Dem recently. I'm going to be a bit bold and predict a narrow Lib Dem win here.
Godalming and Ash - difficult one. I'm going to say Hunt will win the seat, but with a tiny three-figure majority.

All other Surrey seats to be Tory holds.

Moving down to West Sussex, the interesting development of late has been the gain of Worthing council by Labour. So I'd expect a Labour gain of East Worthing and Shoreham, which has been trending that way recently (even though the Tories increased their majority slightly last time). Plus the incumbent Tim Loughton is standing down.

West Worthing seems too safe Tory, so Tory hold for that one.

As for the rest of Sussex, I'd say Crawley and Hastings to be Labour gains, Lewes to be a Lib Dem gain (and it's been a very surprising Tory hold of late in a Remain-leaning seat), rest to remain as now.

Moving west, Bournemouth is the other interesting one. Labour could well gain both seats but if Tobias Ellwood is standing he could hold East because he has a reputation for being a bit more independent-minded than your average Tory. West is Conor Burns who trends more right-wing but has a larger majority.
I'm going to say Labour will take one of the Bournemouth seats while the Tories will hold the other. I'll say Labour gain East and the Tories hold West. The West half seems to be more affluent in any case.

Rest of Dorset - Tory holds.

Basingstoke could go to Labour, as could (given what happened at the local elections) Rushmore. Not sure about North West Hampshire, but I expect it and North East Hampshire would remain Tory with a slim chance it could go Lib Dem (if half the Labour vote went for Lib Dems, then they'd be on 30%, so would need to erode the 60% Tory vote by quite a way, however some recent local elections had the Lib Dems and Tories on about 46% each).

Although I would also suggest that Surrey Heath may also go to Lib Dems, again because of the local elections and the fact that the incumbent Tory has just stood down, so the other local candidates may have a few weeks head start when it come to door knocking.

 

[Cowley]

That is the sort of thing they held a ballot about somewhere in s. Devon recently. I think you're probably just going to have to look at a map & see what the votes were like in the overlapping areas... Exeter's tricky by being generally red, but yes I don't envy your choice atm. At least it's not got Budleigh, presumably...

It’s quite tricky isn’t it?

From the odds at Oddschecker.com the Conservatives are the favourites (1.29 with decimal odds), with the Liberal Democrats second (4.5) and Labour 3rd (10).

https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001232?postcode=EX8 1AD says Labour has a 61% chance of winning, Conservative 35%, Reform UK 3% and 1% for the Liberal Democrats.

https://tactical.vote/exmouth-and-exeter-east/ and https://tacticalvote.co.uk/#ExmouthExeterEast are not sure yet

Yes I’d looked at those sites and was left none the wiser.

I think it’s probably just a case of watching how things develop over the next few weeks.

 

[nw1]

Like all cities assume the university student population has gone back to their parents for the summer by July.

Could this have a significant effect? Could it even be extreme enough to allow the Tories to unexpectedly hold or even, in a worst-case scenario, gain some university cities?

I wonder whether this is the real reason why Sunak has gone for a July election rather than Oct/Nov, when the university cities would be full of students. Gerrymandering at its worst, if so.

 

[telstarbox]

No, as above this effect is overstated.

I'm expecting Taunton & Wellington to be a Lib Dem gain and they will be the tactical vote to oust the Tory incumbent Rebecca Pow. My family home constituency of Bexleyheath & Crayford I can see become a Labour gain; the Tory incumbent Sir David Evenett is standing down which loses any incumbent bonus there and the seat was Labour from 1997-2005, however a big swing is still required this time.

What do you think for Bexley and Sidcup?

 

[Magdalia]

Cambridgeshire is a good example of how difficult it is to predict the outcome of this general election.

Cambridgeshire has a rapidly growing population, lots of 2024 voters will not have been in Cambridgeshire in 2019. As a result Cambridgeshire gained a seat in the recent boundary review, going up from 7 to 8. St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire is the new constituency, but there are significant boundary changes to most of the other constituencies.

In 2019 the Conservatives took all of the seats except Cambridge, which was Labour.

Cambridge and North East Cambridgeshire are the only two constituencies where the outcome can be predicted with real confidence, with Labour holding Cambridge and Conservative holding North East Cambridgeshire. The most interesting feature in Cambridge will be whether the Greens can take second place ahead of the LibDems, who will be concentrating their campaign resources elsewhere (see below).

Two seats very likely to change hands are Labour winning Peterborough and LibDem winning South Cambridgeshire. Both of these only need relatively small swings but, on the other hand, a lot of tactical voting is possibly already "baked in".

The other 4 constituencies are very difficult to predict, the outcomes will depend on influx of new voters, size of swing, and extent of tactical voting. All of them start from a point where the Conservatives probably won in 2019 with more than 50% of the vote on the new boundaries, so, in the past, tactical voting has not been a significant factor.

In St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, and Ely and East Cambridgeshire, the LibDems probably start the campaign best placed to challenge the Conservatives, but with about 20 percentage point gaps to close. The St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire new constituency is especially difficult to predict because it includes the rapidly expanding new towns of Cambourne and Northstowe, and is also the constituency most affected by East West Rail. The extent of tactical voting for the LibDems could be key here.

In North West Cambridgeshire (which includes most of Peterborough south of the River Nene) and Huntingdon (which also includes St Ives), Labour probably start the campaign best placed to challenge the Conservatives, but with even bigger gaps to close than the LibDems have in St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire or Ely and East Cambridgeshire. Labour will only be able to take these in a landslide victory. To demonstrate the scale of what we are talking about here, Huntingdon was John Major's constituency.

 

[brad465]

What do you think for Bexley and Sidcup?

I can see that remaining Tory, albeit considerably closer than before. Even during the New Labour years it remained Tory, albeit by a far smaller margin than currently.

 

[nw1]

Will have a guess at my local area, (live within few miles of various constituencies), there have been lots of boundary changes and some new ones are also made up of two halves of different existing constituencies, to create extra one due to population

Chippenham - Conservative > Lib Dem
Melksham & Devizes very tight between Conservative or Lib Dem

I see Donelan is doing the chicken run to this seat rather than fighting Chippenham. After her libellous comments about a couple of university researchers, I hope it is a Lib Dem gain though I'm not holding out much hope.

 

[D6130]

Calder Valley will be a Labour win. It’s just a shame that the incumbent Tory isn’t standing as watching him get beat after 14 years of him ignoring our part of the constituency, grandstanding for the cameras, lying to his constituents and accepting dodgy Russian-backed donations would’ve been lovely

You took the words right out of my mouth!

 

[adc82140]

I'm New Forest West. Until recently I'd have said con hold, but for the first time ever this particular part of the world returned Lib Dem district councillors last year. I wouldn't rule out a swing to Lib Dem. However it all depends on the candidate. Last time round they fielded someone from London, and spelt the name of the town wrong in the literature. Get a local candidate and watch out for the unforced errors and they could be in with a chance.

 

[Irascible]

I wonder whether this is the real reason why Sunak has gone for a July election rather than Oct/Nov, when the university cities would be full of students. Gerrymandering at its worst, if so.

That is *way* overthinking things - he surprised his own party. Exeter might have a student population but it's also a city & quite likely to vote Lab anyway. The interesting thing in Devon will be how the ever more bloated mid-Devon areas vote. Tactical vote in anywhere that isn't Plymouth or Exeter centre is probably going to be yellow, though.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

The boundaries are being adjusted significantly in my area. The current Batley & Spen (Lab) and Dewsbury (Con) seats are being carved up, with the bits that affect me becoming a new Batley & Dewsbury seat which will either go to Labour, or to an independent (or whatever Galloway's ragtag bunch are called this week, or even a 'trojan-horse' Green candidate as happened in the locals) running on a Gaza ticket .

One of the key reasons Dewsbury is currently Tory is the large rural hinterland towards Denby Dale which is part of the present constituency. That area is set to become part of a new Denby Dale & Ossett constituency which in a normal year (rather than the current mess we have where the Tories are universally despised and Labour inspire near-universal apathy) would be the textbook definition of a Lab/Con marginal. Under the current climate, I predict it'll go to Labour with a healthy majority.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Most of the North East seats look fairly clearly safe for Labour - at least one (probably Newcastle North) will have voted for Jamie Driscoll as an independent candidate in the recent mayoral election but I can't see that transferring to any kind of anti-Labour voting. Even the seats which have more of a tradition of Conservative strength (such as Sunderland Central and Tynemouth) probably won't even be close, while in the most strongly Labour inclined areas they will likely fail to even come second.

Cramlington and Killingworth (essentially the old Blyth Valley but without Blyth and adding some suburban fringes from North Tyneside) is probably the most interesting. The official figures have it as Labour in 2019 but I made my own estimates based on the census returns and that suggested it may have been narrowly Conservative. Either way Labour shouldn't have much trouble winning it this time round - getting the Northumberland Line open could win the Tories some credit but probably not enough to hold the seat.

Hexham is also interesting - it's always been held by the Tories but there's a real social mix in the seat with Prudhoe and Haltwhistle both being industrial working class towns and even Hexham itself isn't as upmarket as its image would suggest. The constituency does have a large rural element, and there's serious money in Ponteland and Darras Hall, but boundary changes do help Labour here and I think they might just take it.

North Northumberland (essentially the old Berwick but with Morpeth added too) is sometimes being projected as a Labour gain - I think this is a bit optimistic. I just don't think they have enough of a base in the seat - the towns probably have a potential Labour vote but other than Amble this doesn't really seem to even show up locally. The Lib Dems may try and target it but they've seen their support rapidly fade away here since Alan Beith retired.

 

[ScottGallagher]

The Cumbria seats will be interesting, Barrow will likely go back to Labour but there are some redrawing of boundaries up there.

 

[Snow1964]

I see Donelan is doing the chicken run to this seat rather than fighting Chippenham. After her libellous comments about a couple of university researchers, I hope it is a Lib Dem gain though I'm not holding out much hope.

Her Chippenham seat was carved down the middle, so wherever she stayed would of been under 50% of those currently represented.
48.2% is in (new) Chippenham which gains Wooten Bassett
46.6% has become Melksham and Devizes
5.1% has become Wiltshire South West

So she picked more winnable of the two big ones, taking Devizes off Danny Kruger (Prue Leiths son), but he gets a rehashed rural Wiltshire seat instead which should be safe conservative

Donelan is not guaranteed a Conservative win as it is very LibDem nearer Bath (Box, Bradford on Avon etc), and Melksham has lost its biggest employer last year (Cooper tyres) so lot of anti-Tory feeling in Melksham

 

[telstarbox]

Sounds like a difficult place to tread then

 

[nw1]

I'm New Forest West. Until recently I'd have said con hold, but for the first time ever this particular part of the world returned Lib Dem district councillors last year. I wouldn't rule out a swing to Lib Dem. However it all depends on the candidate. Last time round they fielded someone from London, and spelt the name of the town wrong in the literature. Get a local candidate and watch out for the unforced errors and they could be in with a chance.

Partly depends on what local people think of Desmond Swayne, I guess, who is someone pretty forthright with his views.

 

[adc82140]

Partly depends on what local people think of Desmond Swayne, I guess, who is someone pretty forthright with his views.

He's a bit Marmite. He did help me a lot when I had an unfortunate run in with the tax office last year, but his political outlook doesn't sit well with me.

 

[Gloster]

We find ourselves in the new constituency of East Exeter and Exmouth and I’m struggling to work out which candidate to vote for (I will be voting to cause the current government the maximum possible amount of damage with my one vote).

Does anyone have any thoughts?

I have just had a look at that and it is an odd one. Much of it is the former East Devon constituency and that was unusual in that the only serious opposition to the Conservative in the last three elections was an independent, with the other parties nowhere. Pinhoe, which has been added seems to be a bit red but it is balanced by the old East Devon seat being one of the few where Labour lost its deposit in 2019. Presuming you agree with the independent’s previous manifestos, I would go for the candidate that she endorses, the Liberal-Democrat, as the most likely to defeat the Conservative candidate.

This is my opinion of what I would do. It is forty years since I lived in Exeter and so I am not up to date with things: it is all based on entries on Wikipedia.

(The old East Devon seat had been Conservative since 1835 and is the seat that has been held the longest continually by any single party. Even though Conservative MPs do tend to go on and on, they have changed MPs a couple of times.)

Having written all this, I feel slightly uncomfortable about even suggesting to other people how they should vote. That is their (your) personal decision.

 

[Cowley]

I have just had a look at that and it is an odd one. Much of it is the former East Devon constituency and that was unusual in that the only serious opposition to the Conservative in the last three elections was an independent, with the other parties nowhere. Pinhoe, which has been added seems to be a bit red but it is balanced by the old East Devon seat being one of the few where Labour lost its deposit in 2019. Presuming you agree with the independent’s previous manifestos, I would go for the candidate that she endorses, the Liberal-Democrat, as the most likely to defeat the Conservative candidate.

This is my opinion of what I would do. It is forty years since I lived in Exeter and so I am not up to date with things: it is all based on entries on Wikipedia.

(The old East Devon seat had been Conservative since 1835 and is the seat that has been held the longest continually by any single party. Even though Conservative MPs do tend to go on and on, they have changed MPs a couple of times.)

The previous independent candidate does confuse the issue slightly and even though I’m fairly politically engaged I’m still finding it quite confusing.

Having written all this, I feel slightly uncomfortable about even suggesting to other people how they should vote. That is their (your) personal decision.

Yes absolutely, but I appreciate the input, so thanks.

 

[Revilo]

Could this have a significant effect? Could it even be extreme enough to allow the Tories to unexpectedly hold or even, in a worst-case scenario, gain some university cities?

I wonder whether this is the real reason why Sunak has gone for a July election rather than Oct/Nov, when the university cities would be full of students. Gerrymandering at its worst, if so.

No, gerrymandering is trying to extend votes to 16 year olds.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

No, gerrymandering is trying to extend votes to 16 year olds.

Thought it was tinkering with parliamentary constituency boundaries. Is this some new, alternative meaning?

 

[birchesgreen]

No, gerrymandering is trying to extend votes to 16 year olds.

Why so? 16 year olds can vote for anyone they like.

 

[The Ham]

No, gerrymandering is trying to extend votes to 16 year olds.

Tinkering with the need for voter ID - which even some in the Tories have spent said was designed to help them (especially when only Oyster Cards for older people were allowed but not those for younger people).

 

[Gloster]

Gerrymandering is very specifically the altering of the boundaries of constituencies with the prime or sole purpose of giving an advantage to one party or grouping. The introduction of a requirement for compulsory ID is probably better described as electoral manipulation, although gerrymandering may also be seen as a specific type of this.