Electric Car Nation

[cjp]

I find the latest announcement of 2040 to see the end of Diesel Car sales to make GB healthier "incongruous " given the recently announced decisions to cut back on rail electrification.
Or should one just accept this as another example of political posturing and avoidance of admitting the country and the world has problems caused by overconsumption of resources and an ever growing population for which there is little justification.

 

[341o2]

My memory goes back to the 80's when we were told the problem was these dirty old bangers running on 4 star leaded petrol. Save the planet by running a new clean green vehicle complete with catalytic comverter we were told.

Now it seems these vehicles cause as much pollution as old cars

 

[PaulHarding150]

July 20th - Government scraps rail electrification projects
July 26th - Government announces it is to ban production and sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2040 in a bid to reduce air pollution

:roll:

 

[DarloRich]

so much wibble about this matter in the media and elsewhere.

It is a deadline of 2040. Who knows how far non petrol/diesel powered engine technology will have advanced. By then we may well wonder what all the fuss was about

 

[southern442]

Copying Macron to try and get him on side?

 

[Bletchleyite]

July 20th - Government scraps rail electrification projects
July 26th - Government announces it is to ban production and sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2040 in a bid to reduce air pollution

I could be being cynical but...

Some time in 2020: massive raft of rail closures announced because diesel is dirty and electric cars/buses are clean.

 

[southern442]

Some time in 2020: massive raft of rail closures announced because diesel is dirty and electric cars/buses are clean.

Whilst that may definitely be a proposal, I don't think members of parliament or indeed the public will allow it to happen. A lot of people now realise that we would be far better off if the Beeching cuts didn't take place (bar a few branch lines that would have been closed anyway). They might not be economically viable to run, but economic factors are not the only factors - 'experts' seem to forget this sometimes.

 

[AlterEgo]

I could be being cynical but...

Some time in 2020: massive raft of rail closures announced because diesel is dirty and electric cars/buses are clean.

I think that might be premature.

I can foresee widespread rail closures in the event that:

we have fully autonomous vehicles all linked up to a database "hive mind", that collectively optimise the best routes between themselves and drastically reduce gridlock, that require no driving licence, that are clean and electric, that may be able to do far in excess of 70mph safely on three-lane motorways, that can be pooled, etc etc.

A true transportation utopia that would render the train almost irrelevant, and would see former lines converted into roads.

We're a fair way off that yet, but I see it as a definite possibility.

 

[pemma]

July 20th - Government scraps rail electrification projects
July 26th - Government announces it is to ban production and sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2040 in a bid to reduce air pollution

:roll:

Indeed. Which is especially stupid as diesel trains tend to stay in service for much longer than cars*.

* At least in the UK. I'm aware some functional cars that people western European countries no longer want get exported to developing countries.

 

[Bletchleyite]

we have fully autonomous vehicles all linked up to a database "hive mind", that collectively optimise the best routes between themselves and drastically reduce gridlock, that require no driving licence, that are clean and electric, that may be able to do far in excess of 70mph safely on three-lane motorways, that can be pooled, etc etc.

That's for the mainline. A branch line would be much easier - and cheaper - to replace with an electric bus, and the environmental argument would be increasingly loud.

 

[pemma]

Whilst that may definitely be a proposal, I don't think members of parliament or indeed the public will allow it to happen. A lot of people now realise that we would be far better off if the Beeching cuts didn't take place (bar a few branch lines that would have been closed anyway). They might not be economically viable to run, but economic factors are not the only factors - 'experts' seem to forget this sometimes.

They might still be closed as heavy rail routes and be converted to light rail like the Oldham Loop. The one thing the Beeching cuts did is remove passenger services from some lines which remained open to freight. The Manchester Metrolink conversions have removed lines from the national rail network altogether which reduces the number of routes available for freight trains and for diversionary purposes.

 

[AlterEgo]

That's for the mainline. A branch line would be much easier - and cheaper - to replace with an electric bus, and the environmental argument would be increasingly loud.

Possibly, yes. As long as the bus was able to compete reasonably well on journey times (sometimes they do, often they don't).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Possibly, yes. As long as the bus was able to compete reasonably well on journey times (sometimes they do, often they don't).

Of course with the will it'd be easier to automate and electrify a branch line train than a bus, though the Luddites will soon chime in and claim it's impossible. And the unions won't be able to stop it, as it won't require any staff.

Such things already exist in Switzerland in the form of some quite long fully-automated funiculars, not to mention a huge number of automated airport transits. Reduces the cost of operation massively, and could well save some less economic branch lines, and could potentially make some extra ones feasible.

A good trial might be Stourbridge - one unit, self-contained, no level crossings, dedicated platforms making fitting PEDs easy etc. Little different from a slightly long horizontal lift, and when was the last time one of those wasn't automated?

 

[AlterEgo]

A good trial might be Stourbridge - one unit, self-contained, no level crossings, dedicated platforms making fitting PEDs easy etc. Little different from a slightly long horizontal lift, and when was the last time one of those wasn't automated?

Indeed, the Stourbridge branch is not much longer and not much more complex than most airport people movers in this country and carries fewer people with less luggage.

 

[Domh245]

I would suggest that the 2040 target is likely to be beaten by several manufacturers. Not only in the case of Volvo who've imposed a time frame on themselves, but other large European manufacturers, the VAG, Mercedes, Peugeot/Citroen, Renault, all have a 2030 limit in their home countries. I'd be surprised then if they didn't cease petrol cars, at least for European models, at that first ban point, what's be the point of continuing to develop them for countries who will soon be banning them, especially if more countries join the ban-bandwagon

 

[Railsigns]

I could be being cynical but...

Some time in 2020: massive raft of rail closures announced because diesel is dirty and electric cars/buses are clean.

Let's get this in perspective. There are far fewer diesel trains than there are cars/buses/lorries etc. Trains aren't the problem.

 

[DarloRich]

I think that might be premature.

I can foresee widespread rail closures in the event that:

we have fully autonomous vehicles all linked up to a database "hive mind", that collectively optimise the best routes between themselves and drastically reduce gridlock, that require no driving licence, that are clean and electric, that may be able to do far in excess of 70mph safely on three-lane motorways, that can be pooled, etc etc.

A true transportation utopia that would render the train almost irrelevant, and would see former lines converted into roads.

We're a fair way off that yet, but I see it as a definite possibility.

I agree - however the journey to get there is a long one and trains still have a part to play in that world. They can shift more people, further and faster.

 

[Harbon 1]

I believe (hope) hydrogen will be the way forward rather than batteries. Having to stop and recharge batteries is just like letting your horse have a sleep every so many miles!

I must admit I do smile at the cars parked in motorway services on charge. Surely that can't be the future?

Combine the two, hydrogen hybrids


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[HSTEd]

A diesel railway will not survive a car industry dominated by electrics.

Either electrification costs have to come down drastically, or we have to make peace with it.

 

[pemma]

Let's get this in perspective. There are far fewer diesel trains than there are cars/buses/lorries etc.

Let's get this properly in prospective.

1. Most cars are petrol not diesel.
2. Buses are very small compared to passenger trains and lorries are very small compared to freight trains so the number of each type operating is irrelevant when comparing levels of pollution.
3. Buses and lorries get replaced with more fuel efficient vehicles more regularly than trains.
4. Buses run at up to 62mph and very few buses run that fast. Diesel trains run up to 125mph and a considerable number of Intercity services do get up to that speed.
5. Freight trains often run via very indirect routes to get from A to B, while lorries take the most direct route.
6. Many towns don't see an evening or Sunday bus service and the number of towns where that is the case will increase as a result of nationwide bus funding cuts. Very few rail lines see services ending at 6 or 7pm or no Sunday service, while the number of train services operating is increasing year on year.

 

[gg1]

Let's get this in perspective. There are far fewer diesel trains than there are cars/buses/lorries etc. Trains aren't the problem.

.....at the moment. 2020 may be premature but by 2030 when it's likely the majority of vehicles on the road will be electric it's very easy to imagine the tabloid press campaigning against 'filthy polluting diesel trains'.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Let's get this in perspective. There are far fewer diesel trains than there are cars/buses/lorries etc. Trains aren't the problem.

I know that, you know that, but with an ulterior motive (the closure of uneconomic branch lines which tend to be diesel, and at the moment justify subsidy in part because of environmental considerations) I reckon they would get it past the electorate.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I agree - however the journey to get there is a long one and trains still have a part to play in that world. They can shift more people, further and faster.

I agree - but I could see us ending up with a pseudo-Serpell as automated shared taxis take over from branch lines, which don't shift many people, nor particularly far, nor particularly fast.

I could see the business model being book on your mobile device, and that'll arrange a (possibly shared) automated taxi at each end plus the train for the main trunk bit where rail wins out.

 

[MarlowDonkey]

but by 2030 when it's likely the majority of vehicles on the road will be electric .

Hybrids perhaps, but is it really likely that the twin problems of range and time taken to recharge will have been solved by then?

 

[Darandio]

1. Most cars are petrol not diesel.

I don't think this is at all true.

In 2013, 34.5% of all cars licensed in the UK were diesel, and we are talking about four years ago. Every year since then diesel vehicles have massively outsold petrol so it wouldn't be surprising of the percentage is equal or even greater in 2017.

That said, with all of the hoopla about diesel vehicles earlier this year, that trend is now likely to reverse.

I've now found the DFT data for 2016, 39% of all registered cars are diesel. That isn't a case of most cars being petrol. More yes, most no.

 

[gg1]

Hybrids perhaps, but is it really likely that the twin problems of range and time taken to recharge will have been solved by then?

If solid state battery technology fulfills the hype (charging time of a few minutes and much longer life than lithium batteries) then yes. Toyota claim they'll have a car on the market using this tech by 2022.

How big an if that is is of course the key factor.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

How many extra power stations will be needed if every single car (and car sized vans as well?) were to be replaced with electric ones?

 

[D365]

How many extra power stations will be needed if every single car (and car sized vans as well?) were to be replaced with electric ones?

Not sure what this is trying to achieve as in no way is it being demanded that all ICE automobiles must been taken off the road.

 

[MarlowDonkey]

Not sure what this is trying to achieve as in no way is it being demanded that all ICE automobiles must been taken off the road.

It's being demanded that no new ones will be sold from 2040. Assuming that car and van lifetimes aren't extended, that gets a lot of them off the road by 2050. In all the excitement it seems overlooked that hybrids appear exempt from the ban, so there's still continued need for filling stations.

 

[chris11256]

Hoping that by 2040 Hydrogen Fuel Cell cars have come a long way. Although tbh the vehicles exist today. The only problem is we need to build the filling station infrastructure.

But if the government really wants to tackle pollution it needs to look at shipping, aviation and areas beyond the road. Cruise ships for example run on Heavy Fuel Oil and pollute like theres no tomorrow.