Electrification scrapped.

[Kingfisher200262]

Yes, I find it inconceivable that the government will can a £1Bn electrification programme for GWML (costs not due until 2014-2017) whilst at the same time supporting a total £43Bn for HS2 to Brum and CrossRail!!
Or perhaps it is easier to can a labour programme and resurrect it later as part of a UK HSR strategy that includes an upgraded GWML.....

Erm, I may be wrong, but I think the £43Bn would get you HS2 to Scotland, plus Crossrail, wouldn't it?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

But that is the same with all taxes. You can't begin to try and break it down into paying only for things you want today (which will change tomorrow).

It's like people against the TV licence because they only watch X and don't care for paying for the production of Y.

If a lot of the money is going to create actual work, which means that money is given to people who will hopefully invest or spend it back in the UK economy, it seems like a winner.

Fair comment. You'd get my 50 quid!

 

[WatcherZero]

HS2 to Brum (with connections for onward running) is £17bn Crossrails £16bn. Full HS2 to Manchester and Leeds is 34bn

 

[Solaris]

I accept I may have been wrong on the exact figure (and we'll not know the true cost until the schemes are completed), £43Bn Vs perhaps £33bn for Crossrail and HS2 to Brum. However, this number still dwarfs the £1bn cost of the GWML electrification programme which has clear and articulated benefits in reduced running costs, faster travel times, CO2 emission reductions, use "off the shelf" rolling stock, etc, etc. I am sure there is a far better CBA for this than HS2??

I am sure we would all be "accepting" of such cutbacks if in fact Crossrail and/or HS2 were cancelled or delayed. However, given it appears these schemes will go ahead, then how can the government use the "poor state of the public finances" argument to cancel the GWML electrification programme??

 

[WatcherZero]

I agree with you, however its the rolling stock most likely to be cancelled and without the rolling stock the electrification makes sense to be delayed while HS2 wont have any serious spending for half a decade.

The mid term future of the railways rests entirely on what comes out of the next series of franchise renewals I believe.

 

[Greenback]

From whatw as said in Transport Questions the other day, which I caught on BBC Parliament a couple of nights ago, the strategy seems to be all about Heathrow and the cancellation of the the third runway.

It looks as if the Tories idea is to run HS2 to Heathrow to avoid the possible downgrading of the airport form a major international hub, that has been forecast to happen without the extra capacity from a thrid runway.

The thinking is that a high speed rail link is necessary to whisk arriving passengers off to the north, and Europe, instead of the extra flights that would use the thrid runway.

Personally, I think this is flawed. I don;t think the current level of air travel is sustainable long term. I don't think that the lack of a thrid runway will have any negative effect on the economy of the UK, London or the South East, except perhaps for the airport operators who have a bit of a vested interest.

I cna;t see transatlantic passengers, for example, arriving at Heathrow and taking a train to Paris or Brussels to complete their journey either.

 

[Solaris]

..and is not the largest demand for access to Heathrow (outside of London) from SW England and S Wales ( as per details presented in the DfT review of airports in 2002/2003). So Heathrow access on the GWML should be a far higher priority than for HS2. This could also help displace flights form Bristol/Cardiff to Schipol as well....

 

[Greenback]

..and is not the largest demand for access to Heathrow (outside of London) from SW England and S Wales ( as per details presented in the DfT review of airports in 2002/2003). So Heathrow access on the GWML should be a far higher priority than for HS2. This could also help displace flights form Bristol/Cardiff to Schipol as well....

Precisely, to me the governmenr thinking on this is skewed in the wrong direction!

 

[WatcherZero]

The only serious (though still miniscule) passengers from outside the south for Heathrow come from the North East I believe (due to lack of local long distance airports except Manchester) so for them it makes sense to travel direct to Heathrow rather than catch a connecting flight in Manchester.

As a side note this was something I saw in passing in the last couple of days and didnt pay it much attention or read thoroughly, but BAA saying that since they couldnt do the Third runway they would now dust off plans for a new terminal instead.

 

[jon0844]

With growing fuel costs, I am sure that the era of cheap flights will come to an end and demand will fall drastically.

At best, we'll see airlines using larger planes and flying less often, which will also reduce the demand on runways.

I don't know when it will happen (airlines still enjoy tax-free fuel) but I am sure it will, unless we stumble on another load of cheap-to-extract oil in the coming years.

 

[Solaris]

Did GWML electrification get a mention in the budget? If the Chancellor is protecting capital projects then surely this should go ahead?

 

[PhilipW]

Not mentioned. I guess it is still being thought about.

I think the DfT has to sort out the proposed new trains for Thameslink first. That decides whether there will be any redundant 319s than can be cascaded to Paddington-Oxford, Paddington-Newbury and Bristol-Cardiff local services.

 

[ivanhoe]

With growing fuel costs, I am sure that the era of cheap flights will come to an end and demand will fall drastically.

At best, we'll see airlines using larger planes and flying less often, which will also reduce the demand on runways.

I don't know when it will happen (airlines still enjoy tax-free fuel) but I am sure it will, unless we stumble on another load of cheap-to-extract oil in the coming years.

I remember saying this about three years ago and guess what, they are still here. For those who can remember life before low cost airlines, the prices in 1997 to get from East Midlands in October to Malaga were 170 pounds per adult. Such a price today would seem like a poor deal, so there is plenty of scope for Low Cost flights still. Add to the fact that the large airlines have more or less pulled out of the Regional Airports and you can see that Ryanair will be around for a while. Hence, High Speed to Heathrow is a waste of money.

 

[Greenback]

I remember saying this about three years ago and guess what, they are still here. For those who can remember life before low cost airlines, the prices in 1997 to get from East Midlands in October to Malaga were 170 pounds per adult. Such a price today would seem like a poor deal, so there is plenty of scope for Low Cost flights still. Add to the fact that the large airlines have more or less pulled out of the Regional Airports and you can see that Ryanair will be around for a while. Hence, High Speed to Heathrow is a waste of money.

I think that High Speed to Heathrow is a waste of money, but I also agree that the current level of air travel is unsustainable for a number of reasons. These include the increased environmental awareness, the increasing costs and hassles of flying due to governemnt taxes and fuel surcharges, and the small margins that these sort of companies work on.

It will not be sudden, and it may not happen within the next three years, but it will happen.

 

[moggie]

A thought - how long assuming it gets built would the journey time to Heathrow take? I'd estimate about 15 mins. Can you imagine the chaos of lots of (un) seasoned rail travellers battling with luggage and kids. They'll have just about found a stash for it / them all when they'll be lugging it all the way back out to the door vestibules again - the chaos! And then of course there's the lot getting on the train at Heathrow - with lots of luggage and tat batttling in the opposite direction. Wonder what the dwell time allowance will be?:roll:

 

[gordonthemoron]

if you want an example of how it will work, try Frankfurt Hbf-Frankfurt Airport by ICE, there's luggage everywhere

It's even worse from Frankfurt Airport-Cologne

 

[jon0844]

I remember saying this about three years ago and guess what, they are still here.

I don't think it will be in the next few years. Maybe not even the next 10 or 20, but until we have another way to fuel planes, it will be a growing problem.

Electric vehicles will no doubt take off because there will be a wider choice of ways to generate that electricity, but planes will continue to need oil for some time to come (I think).

I'm getting more impressed by electric cars as time goes on. In 10-20 years, these (or any other fuel) will almost certainly compete well with petrol and diesel. Charging times will be rapidly cut, which is probably the final hurdle.

 

[PhilipW]

Chery Gilliaq, Secretary of State for Wales, is reported in today's papers (Wed 22/Jun) as saying that electrification to South Wales is still under review. Nothing in the budget yesterday implies anything one way or another. It's the old "value for money" test.

Personally, as I have said previously, I think the DfT have to sort out the Thameslink orders first to determine if there will be any redundant 319s that can be cascaded onto newly electrified suburban services west of Maidenhead.