There's a few different extremes that could happen with railway electriciation over the next 10 years, which one happens will almost certainly be the result of whatever the political climate is over the decade.
Regardless of what happens with politics, I think it's fairly likely the following will be wired within this decade:
- Manchester Piccadilly/Guide Bridge - Huddersfield - Leeds
- Neville Hill - Church Fenton
- Kettering - Sheffield/Nottingham
- Sheffield - Fitzwilliam
- Sheffield - Doncaster
- Glasgow Central - East Kilbride/Kilmarnock
Other than those, I think any further electrification will be dependent on politics. If policy shifts towards favouring rail transport in order to meet climate targets, then I can see many more routes being electrified, but if things stay as they are then other than the routes I mentioned above, and possibly a couple of politically influenced schemes (in Tory and SNP target seats), I can't see anything else being authorised.
Yes but thats part of the bigger TPE north, only 80x will be able to use it, local services will still be diesel or bi-mode if we get any, so I see it as a part of a bigger project
The self contained local services would more than likely use 331s. Should wires reach enough additional locations (ie Middlesbrough or Hull) there's also the likelihood of the 68s being swapped for electric locos on the Mark 5A sets.
What will happen in Leicester East if Claudia Webbe is sent to jail and there is a by-election? Could we see an announcement of electrification of MML north to Leicester as a bribe? One to watch maybe?
Definitely one to watch. It could be very interesting, as though Labour have had two consecutive controversial MPs in that seat (before Claudia Webbe they had Keith Vaz), the Tories aren't exactly popular with a lot of people at the minute either, only got to look at the result in Chesham & Amersham to see that! I can definitely see the Tories using MML electrification as a bribe in the Leicester East by-election should the likely Recall Petition be succesful.
10. Chilterns – all of it and remove the 4th rail stuff that interferes
Incredibly unlikely that the 4th rail electrification between Harrow-on-the-Hill and Amersham will be removed as the Metropolitan line's require it and aren't likely to be replaced until at least 2040. Much more likely would be a similar solution to that used on the Watford DC line to allow third and fourth rail trains to mix, with dual voltage EMUs being used, powered by OHLE either side of the LU owned infrastructure.
Surely it will depend where marginal constituencies are with an electorate that needs bribing.
or is that too cynical?
Not really. BTW it is why I put Chilterns at bottom of my list.
Given the recent result in Chesham & Amersham the Tories will likely have the Chilterns much higher up their priority list now than previously.
You won't get cross country as it doesn't release anything until the vast majority of it is done, it isn't high up on the NR regions lists.
That's not the case at all. Simply wiring Derby - Birmingham when tied in with MML electrification would allow a number of the 170s to be replaced with EMUs, and would allow XC to use EMUs on the Reading - Newcastle route in the fairly likely event that it never returns south of Birmingham. That on it's own is quite a bit of Diesel stock released.
Plus various depot wiring projects - Gosforth, Etches Park etc.
Gosforth was wired over 40 years ago!
We are opening the Blyth line as well as the East-West line without any electrification - if we can't do these with wires from day one then I'm not optimistic about putting up with the pain of closing existing lines to wire them up given the well documented problems on the GWML/ Lancashire Triangle etc
I'll give you East-West Rail, but the Ashington route isn't really a fair comparision given that the line is already there as a freight route. Electrifiying that route in terms of the work needed would be like electrifying an existing passenger line rather than including wires on a new line (like East-West Rail or HS2).
If anyone bookmarks this thread for 1 January 2030 and wants to point out that electrification has reached Hull/ Clitheroe/ Barrow etc by then then I will eat whatever hat I wake up wearing at the start of that decade - we've got enough to be doing with lines that have good frequencies elsewhere, plenty more "low hanging fruit" before we come to stuff that wasn't even worthy of consideration in the boom days of the CP5 ambitions
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see electrification through Sheffield, I'd love to see significantly fewer diesel trains polluting stations like New Street, I'd welcome any investment like this, but the numbers seem to be looking worse and worse
Sadly I agree. As much as I would love to see mass electrification over the next 10 years, without a major shift in policy it won't happen.
