Elizabeth Line now has most cancellations

[Bigbru]

The BBC is reporting that the Elizabeth Line now has the highest % of cancelled trains. As many of the problems are not their making how can they get back to of the most reliable railways?

Elizabeth line tops list of train cancellations

The latest rail regulator figures show the UK's newest rail line had more cancellations than any other.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[jdp30]

Is this not just because it's a very frequent metro style service being compared to more traditional routes? My understanding is that it's the standard way to recover service quickly for this type of system - Short sharp shock of cancellations to get back to timetable.

Makes for a good headline, but it's not exactly fair to compare a cancellation where there's a train less than 10 minutes behind to one where you could be delayed by an hour.

 

[Andyh82]

Where is the source the BBC are using as surely Grand Central has more cancellations than this?

 

[stan claire]

And what about northern with their cancellation list stretching to 300

 

[trebor79]

Is this not just because it's a very frequent metro style service being compared to more traditional routes? My understanding is that it's the standard way to recover service quickly for this type of system - Short sharp shock of cancellations to get back to timetable.

Makes for a good headline, but it's not exactly fair to compare a cancellation where there's a train less than 10 minutes behind to one where you could be delayed by an hour.

Exactly. It's a bit of a pointless measure given most passengers wouldn't notice or care less that a train is cancelled or delayed.
Similar to LU saying a line is operating with "delays". What that usually means is a slightly longer wait for a train, but no actual delay to your journey.

 

[aaronspence]

Similar to LU saying a line is operating with "delays". What that usually means is a slightly longer wait for a train, but no actual delay to your journey.

How does that work? If I know theres a train at 10:10 for example and I leave my house to get it, but its delayed by 5 minutes, sure the actual time Im on the train is the same but my overal journey is 5 minutes late to what I was expecting as I was hanging around for 5 minutes.

 

[jfowkes]

How does that work? If I know theres a train at 10:10 for example and I leave my house to get it, but its delayed by 5 minutes, sure the actual time Im on the train is the same but my overal journey is 5 minutes late to what I was expecting as I was hanging around for 5 minutes.

Generally speaking, it means that each train is delayed by roughly the same amount of time. So you still get on a train at about 10:10, but it's actually the delayed 10:05.

 

[matt_world2004]

Is this not just because it's a very frequent metro style service being compared to more traditional routes? My understanding is that it's the standard way to recover service quickly for this type of system - Short sharp shock of cancellations to get back to timetable.

Makes for a good headline, but it's not exactly fair to compare a cancellation where there's a train less than 10 minutes behind to one where you could be delayed by an hour.

Wouldn't that make the cancellations as a percentage less?

 

[trebor79]

Generally speaking, it means that each train is delayed by roughly the same amount of time. So you still get on a train at about 10:10, but it's actually the delayed 10:05.

Precisely. With metro frequencies it's of no practical consequence to the passenger.

 

[CyrusWuff]

The source is ORR's "P-coded cancellations" periodic report, published at https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/performance/p-coded-cancellations/

Looking at the associated data table, MTR Elizabeth Line does indeed top the table with 2529 full or part cancellations out of 27689 planned trains for Period 5 (9.1%.) When p-coded (i.e. cancelled byl 10pm the day before they were due to run) cancellations are factored in, the runaway losers are Grand Central with 105/550 trains cancelled (19.1%) followed by TPE with 1551/8218 (18.9%) and then Northern at 6175/64432 (9.6%.)

At the other end of the table are Caledonian Sleeper with 1/168 (0.3%) and c2c with 52/8595 (0.6%.)

 

[Tetchytyke]

Is this not just because it's a very frequent metro style service being compared to more traditional routes? My understanding is that it's the standard way to recover service quickly for this type of system - Short sharp shock of cancellations to get back to timetable.

In raw numbers, yes. The more trains you run, the more trains will inevitably be cancelled.

But as a percentage of what should run it shouldn’t make any difference. As a very simplistic example, one hour’s shutdown on the Lizzie will result in 48 cancellations but on a branch line may result in 1 or 2 cancellations. But 48/48 is the same percentage as 2/2.

 

[matt_world2004]

In raw numbers, yes. The more trains you run, the more trains will inevitably be cancelled.

But as a percentage of what should run it shouldn’t make any difference. As a very simplistic example, one hour’s shutdown on the Lizzie will result in 48 cancellations but on a branch line may result in 1 or 2 cancellations. But 48/48 is the same percentage as 2/2.

As a percentage of cancellations running a high intensity metro service you would expect the cancellation percentage to be lower. 1 train an hour on a branch line cancelled .results in an 100% cancellation rate for an hour. 1 train per hour cancelled on the 24tph Elizabeth line peak is a cancellation rate of just over 4%

 

[Tetchytyke]

1 train an hour on a branch line cancelled .results in an 100% cancellation rate for an hour. 1 train per hour cancelled on the 24tph Elizabeth line peak is a cancellation rate of just over 4%

Yes, but most of the Lizzie Line cancellations have been due to technical failures (and other issues- memorably in June there was an issue with a swan) screwing up the whole core section, not just ad hoc cancellations.

 

[matt_world2004]

Yes, but most of the Lizzie Line cancellations have been due to technical failures (and other issues- memorably in June there was an issue with a swan) screwing up the whole core section, not just ad hoc cancellations.

But not all of them and it is easier to cancel less services as a percentage on a high intensity service than it is on a low intensity service. There have been very few disruptions on the Elizabeth line that has taken out the core and the two branches at the same time

 

[PTR 444]

I wonder if it is even fair to include Elizabeth Line statistics as part of National Rail at all? Aside from cancellations, the line has been a huge success and appears to have boosted the UK’s passenger numbers, but we don’t know how many of those have simply been abstracted from TfL operated services. As a metro line, it might be better to compare the Elizabeth Line with other metro and light rail systems rather than lump it all in with Intercity and Regional trains.

 

[PGAT]

Well there are stats online as to where Elizabeth Line traffic comes from. I don't have the time to find it at the moment, but I recall 30% of journeys are completely new, either drawing people out of their cars or creating new demand

 

[dk1]

Well there are stats online as to where Elizabeth Line traffic comes from. I don't have the time to find it at the moment, but I recall 30% of journeys are completely new, either drawing people out of their cars or creating new demand

Yes that’s all in the September Modern Railways magazine article.

I simply cannot speak highly enough of the EL. Used it many times now & yes there are cancellations and issues as expected but the speed, frequency & general travel environment when it’s running well outweigh them.

 

[Old Yard Dog]

How can this be?

Northern have cancelled over 2/3rds of their trains on the sparsely served Ellesmere Port to Helsby over the last 12 weeks.

 

[FGW_Lad]

Yes that’s all in the September Modern Railways magazine article.

I simply cannot speak highly enough of the EL. Used it many times now & yes there are cancellations and issues as expected but the speed, frequency & general travel environment when it’s running well outweigh them.

Agreed. Having a train every 15 mins or so from Burnham is much better than the previous 30 mins service we had under GWR. Softens the blow a bit if one train is cancelled.

 

[40129]

Used Crossrail on two separate days recently travelling to/from Heathrow T4. First time was fine. Second would have been a nightmare had I been trying to catch a flight rather than going to a hotel as there was a 35 minute gap in the service to T4. Cancellations may not be an issue for those travelling entirely within the core section but for those using the western branches, including Heathrow, they can be a significant issue.

 

[Horizon22]

As a percentage of cancellations running a high intensity metro service you would expect the cancellation percentage to be lower. 1 train an hour on a branch line cancelled .results in an 100% cancellation rate for an hour. 1 train per hour cancelled on the 24tph Elizabeth line peak is a cancellation rate of just over 4%

No you wouldn’t.

A metro service with a aggressive recovery strategy often causes a high level of cancellations outright. Whilst other operators might instead run trains nonstop or divert them or even absorb the delay. A 30 minute delay might be recoverable for an intercity service, but you’re talking about 5/6 trains worth of Elizabeth line services (at least) which is not effective. It would be better to compare to an LU line for cancellations. 1 in 10 cancellations would be the same as cancelling 1 trip from Paddington to Shenfield an hour (off-peak & peak averaged). The gap in trains is more important than overall delay.

Cancellations is just one part of an overall reliability & punctuality figure so it will be interesting to see how that comes out.

Reducing it would be down to three key factors.
A) The reliability of 345s, particularly transitioning across the network
B) The reliability of NR Western infrastructure the performance of which is frankly awful and seems to fail most days which automatically ends up in Elizabeth line cancellations.
C) The length of time taken to resolve an issue with the core TfL/RfLI infrastructure.

There were also some high profile incidents in that 4 week period with TfL infrastructure which tends to veer towards cancellations as if the core section is blocked, there’s only limited platform availability at both Liverpool Street & Paddington (the latter being particular restricted).

Precisely. With metro frequencies it's of no practical consequence to the passenger.

Delay statuses on TfL lines generally refer to the gap in services, not overall delays. This is more noticeable on a metro service as you say.

 

[Purple Train]

Agreed. Having a train every 15 mins or so from Burnham is much better than the previous 30 mins service we had under GWR. Softens the blow a bit if one train is cancelled.

Agreed - although it does get a bit annoying when you miss a Reading-Abbey Wood train and have just under 20 minutes to wait for the next one, as the pattern's slightly uneven!

(I have just realised that turns me into the Southerner moaning about the saltiness of his caviar as far as my Northern soul is concerned. Help.)

 

[yeti]

There is an article in todays Evening Standard about the Elizabeth Line problems which prompts me to write this.
I experienced a half hour delay on the Elizabeth Line recently which appeared to be due to wrong decisions in the signalling centre.
When I arrived at the east bound platform at Ealing Broadway a freight train of well wagons containing large containers was passing through. The indicator said the next Elizabeth Line train would arrive in three minutes, three minutes late. When it did we sat there for maybe fifteen minutes. The driver said this was due to congestion at Paddington. We then moved on to the next stop, Acton Mainline where we waited another fifteen minutes. Next to us was a train of mineral waggons with a driver waiting on the east bound goods line. Our driver said the delay was due to a freight train blocking the line ahead.
Presumably the train he was referring to was the container train I had seen earlier which had accessed the goods line up to the North London Line using the points just to the east of Acton Mainline thereby overtaking the mineral wagons waiting on the goods line. When we did start moving later I saw the container train moving up on the North London Line presumably onto Felixstowe or Thames Haven rather than onto the West London Line.
Why could not the train be parked on one of the through sidings in Acton Yard if it could not access the North London Line?
Why was the Elizabeth Line blocked for half an hour for the sake of the North London Line? If so a strange decision.
Or was it that the container train waiting on the incline up to the line from Richmond was just a bit too long.
Any experts out there?

 

[Horizon22]

There is an article in todays Evening Standard about the Elizabeth Line problems which prompts me to write this.
I experienced a half hour delay on the Elizabeth Line recently which appeared to be due to wrong decisions in the signalling centre.
When I arrived at the east bound platform at Ealing Broadway a freight train of well wagons containing large containers was passing through. The indicator said the next Elizabeth Line train would arrive in three minutes, three minutes late. When it did we sat there for maybe fifteen minutes. The driver said this was due to congestion at Paddington. We then moved on to the next stop, Acton Mainline where we waited another fifteen minutes. Next to us was a train of mineral waggons with a driver waiting on the east bound goods line. Our driver said the delay was due to a freight train blocking the line ahead.
Presumably the train he was referring to was the container train I had seen earlier which had accessed the goods line up to the North London Line using the points just to the east of Acton Mainline thereby overtaking the mineral wagons waiting on the goods line. When we did start moving later I saw the container train moving up on the North London Line presumably onto Felixstowe or Thames Haven rather than onto the West London Line.
Why could not the train be parked on one of the through sidings in Acton Yard if it could not access the North London Line?
Why was the Elizabeth Line blocked for half an hour for the sake of the North London Line? If so a strange decision.
Or was it that the container train waiting on the incline up to the line from Richmond was just a bit too long.
Any experts out there?

You’ve also got Paddington New Yard where a train might have been delayed into. Of course the driver may not have been correctly advised that it was due to a freight train.

 

[Phil56]

Is this not just because it's a very frequent metro style service being compared to more traditional routes? My understanding is that it's the standard way to recover service quickly for this type of system - Short sharp shock of cancellations to get back to timetable.

Makes for a good headline, but it's not exactly fair to compare a cancellation where there's a train less than 10 minutes behind to one where you could be delayed by an hour.

Or 2 hours delay if it's a two hourly service in Northern region.

 

[DC1989]

I hate to open that can of worms again but they really need to stop comparing EL to mainline train companies and compare it with tube lines. EL is always going to be most busy/most cancelled/most delayed and for the person jumping on at TCR to go to Bond Street it matters not a jot if the train before was cancelled !

 

[bicbasher]

Delay refunds on the EL and the ELL cores should be at 15 minutes considering the tube style frequencies both have, yet they're the standard NR 30 minutes.

 

[Horizon22]

Delay refunds on the EL and the ELL cores should be at 15 minutes considering the tube style frequencies both have, yet they're the standard NR 30 minutes.

No they’re standard TfL; most NR has 15 minutes now, including their direct main line equivalents (GWR & GA). Overground is also 30 minutes.

TfL’s compensation is actually surprising restrictive and they won’t pay out for things like extreme weather.

 

[Jamiescott1]

I hate to open that can of worms again but they really need to stop comparing EL to mainline train companies and compare it with tube lines. EL is always going to be most busy/most cancelled/most delayed and for the person jumping on at TCR to go to Bond Street it matters not a jot if the train before was cancelled !

But for those going to Slough with a connecting train to Windsor its an inconvenience

 

[Taunton]

for the person jumping on at TCR to go to Bond Street it matters not a jot if the train before was cancelled !

Actually it does, even in the core. One of the recurrent issues is uneven frequencies developing; last week at Custom House at 0800 (Tuesday 17 Oct), peak frequency normally 5 minutes, there was a westbound gap of 13 minutes. When it came in, rammed, the bulk of the substantial number now on the platform could not board. Next train seemingly 5 minutes behind, subsequently some just 2 minute intervals, then another more than 10 minutes.

Two days ago (Monday 23 Oct) the whole thing sat down late evening around 2300 for more than half an hour. Nothing seemingly cancelled so not in the figures, just a huge gap at all core points both ways.

The simplistic 2-platform terminus at Abbey Wood makes it very difficult to recover if there has been an incident, with trains queued up approaching for considerable periods. The Shenfield line can turn short at Gidea Park and probably elsewhere, but not this branch.