Elizabeth line passenger numbers and effect on other lines

[Alfie1014]

Edited. Anyone know why a number of peak EL services to/from Shenfield ran to/from Liverpool Street High level today rather than through to Paddington? Just seen it is due to the strike on the Western end of the line, doh should have checked before posting!

 

[Taunton]

Apparently TfL don't think people are switching from the tube signifcantly and most of the Elizabeth Line passengers are new, switching from car etc.

That's a considerable "The Emperor has no Clothes" invention, to appeal to various political factions. It doesn't have a lot of car switch, for the reasonably obvious reason that the last 15 years or so have seen a substantial attack on car usage in Central London, and there was little car usage into there anyway to switch. Most of the central London traffic nowadays is made up of commercial vehicles. I don't know anyone in my locality who has switched from car. There is quite a lot of induced demand, where the shorter time to the centre, especially now Bond Street has opened, is significant. And from casual comments I get the impression the western side has picked up a lot more than the GEML, or, since the throughout opening, the Abbey Wood line.

I would also make the point that in the first several months of Core service, it got a significantly good reputation for reliability (apart from not running on Sundays). That seems to have gone out of the window now, with a combination of technical issues, strikes, GEML weekend closures, diversions to Liverpool Street, CBTC transition failures (which many of us predicted for years would not work seamlessly), irregular intervals, you name it.

 

[Tetchytyke]

At #4 absolutemilk said : EL passenger numbers significantly above predicted.
How do they know?

They use various datasets, including the obvious Oyster travel history and equipment on trains. But they also do things like (anonymously) monitor smartphones connecting to WiFi.

 

[ijmad]

They use various datasets, including the obvious Oyster travel history and equipment on trains. But they also do things like (anonymously) monitor smartphones connecting to WiFi.

I believe they were also trialling 'body recognition' algorithms plugged in to the CCTV cameras on busses to track passenger numbers, I don't know if this made it on to the tube/EL though.

Also the Class 345 trains have carriage weight sensors that can give an idea of passenger loading with the assumption that an average person weighs about 75kg.

 

[345 050]

I used the Jubilee Line earlier between Waterloo and Canary Wharf and it was still extremely busy, the usual practice of having to let trains go because of overcrowding is still going strong…

I haven't seen a massive change at Canary Wharf. A lot of people are heading for London Bridge or Waterloo. Plus the Jubilee is still substantially more frequent. It all depends where you are going I guess. Perhaps more people working at Canarf Wharf will gradually move to live on GWML, where they know they can get a direct train. But that's not going to be immediate.

I had the almost opposite last week on a GWR 387 departing Ealing Broadway for Paddington and was asked by a passenger if this train called at Bond Street!

During disruption my train terminated at Paddington high level and most people on the train hadn't bothered listening to the announcement, and just sat there whilst I made my way to the lower level platforms to continue.

 

[ijmad]

One I'm wondering about is whether it's made a difference to the DLR's Lewisham and Woolwich branches which can be very busy in the mornings - although in fairness I haven't been out that way in the peak since before the pandemic so I'm not sure how it has recovered. Many who changed at Woolwich or Greenwich will surely now have switched to Abbey Wood.

 

[345 050]

Will be interesting to see what happens to Abbey Wood when Southeastern cut off the loop services. I expect a fair number of people might have used these to get to Elizabeth Line, but now they are back to heading to London Bridge by the looks of it.

 

[Chris M]

One I'm wondering about is whether it's made a difference to the DLR's Lewisham and Woolwich branch which can be very busy in the mornings - although in fairness I haven't been out that way in the peak since before the pandemic so I'm not sure how it has recovered. Many who changed at Woolwich or Greenwich will surely now have switched to Abbey Wood.

I live on the Lewisham branch, but don't get out in the morning peak that often. At the times I do travel the only significant difference is more people alighting at West India Quay (which offers the quickest interchange to Canary Wharf Crossrail) - indeed I used WIQ more in the first six months of the Elizabeth line opening than I did in the whole of the previous 2-3 years combined.

 

[Basil Jet]

"[Andy] Lord ... said ... since its opening in May, there had not been a significant change in ridership on the Central Line" (Modern Railways December)

 

[DC1989]

To be honest they wouldn't have expected a significant change before through running would they? Since through running the exodus across the platform from the Elizabeth line to the Central line seems to have been reversed

 

[bicbasher]

If I was using Liverpool Street High Level, I'd cross over from the Elizabeth line to the Central or a GA service as the walk from the EL platforms is quite lengthy.