Emergency timetable to deal with coronavirus: what would you propose?

[yorkie]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896169

The government is in talks with rail bosses to put emergency measures in place to deal with falling passenger numbers after the coronavirus outbreak.

Some train operators were already losing money but fewer fares will put even more pressure on their finances.

A senior industry source said fairly drastic measures might be required for train companies to survive.

At an industry meeting last week, passenger numbers were said to have fallen by up to 18% on certain lines.

However, another industry source acknowledged that the fall in passengers could be significantly higher.

I know speculation is very popular on this forum so I thought I would create this thread to see what suggestions or predictions our members have.

Any suggestions/ideas/predictions can cover any route in the UK...

 

[Ianno87]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896169

I know speculation is very popular on this forum so I thought I would create this thread to see what suggestions or predictions our members have.

Any suggestions/ideas/predictions can cover any route in the UK...

Obvious ones would be using standard disruption contingency plans.

E.g. out of Euston losing one Birmingham/Manchester train per hour, losimg the Tring Stoppers, etc. Perhaps North Wales services cut back to Crewe.

Elsewhere, Gatwick/Heathrow/Stansted expresses reduced to half-hourly. That sort of thing.

 

[yorkie]

For XC, could we see a reduction to 1 train per hour through any of the 'core' parts of the route? or is it more likely that trains will be turned short e.g. Newcastle terminators could be cut back to York?

 

[Ianno87]

For XC, could we see a reduction to 1 train per hour through any of the 'core' parts of the route? or is it more likely that trains will be turned short e.g. Newcastle terminators could be cut back to York?

I'd have thought that the 2tph on the 'core' inwards of Stoke/Bristol/Oxford/Derby too important to keeping Birmingham commuting going.

I'd suspect chopping off/reducing the extremeties where other operators are duplicated would make more sense (e.g. beyond Exeter/York, Cambridge-Stansted, etc.)

 

[Meerkat]

Elsewhere, Gatwick/Heathrow/Stansted expresses reduced to half-hourly. That sort of thing.

There won’t be much point in those at all at this rate!

 

[Aictos]

I can see with regards to TL the following could be in place:

2tph Bedford to Brighton
1tph St Albans to Sutton via Wimbledon
1tph St Albans to Wimbledon via Sutton
1tph Luton to Rainham
1tph Blackfriars to Orpington
1tph Blackfriars to Sevenoaks

(2tph Bedford to Gatwick Airport cancelled)
(1tph St Albans to Sutton via Wimbledon cancelled)
(1tph St Albans to Wimbledon via Sutton cancelled)
(1tph Luton to Rainham cancelled)
(1tph Kentish Town to Orpington cancelled)
(1tph Blackfriars to Sevenoaks cancelled)
(Peak Luton to Orpington cancelled)

That's just the old TL side of Thameslink mind you.

 

[yorkie]

There won’t be much point in those at all at this rate!

HEX isn't anything to do with the DfT so let's discount that.

Greater Anglia will still have to run the Stansted Express, just less frequetly.

GTR could definitely stop running Gatwick Express entirely as there is no point in running them at all if there is sufficient capacity on their Southern branded services.

 

[GlitterUnicorn]

I'd probably prioritise operating with less staff, since that's probably the biggest issue we're going to face, obviously with less demand too.

Sunday timetables but with a couple of extra commuter services and stopping slightly later in the evening?

Using the extra coaches to boost train lengths would be a good idea to minimise transmission. Maybe ask people to sit apart if they can?

 

[westv]

Wouldn't a number of these services normally be filled with season ticket holders and a lot of those being annual? If that were true then less of those people travelling shouldn't affect the TOC.

 

[Meole]

Cancel sleeper services.

 

[Rich McLean]

Few Ideas

Cornwall - Hourly service incl the 2 hourly IET to London, with most local services cancelled. St Ives and Falmouth brances reduced to hourly. No change for Looe & Newquay branches. Gunnislake branch no change.
Ivybridge served peak time only.
Devon - Penzance/Plymouth - Paddington Hourly (with 1tp2hr stopping at Castle Cary, Wesbury and Pewsey replacing the Semi Fasts)
Paignton/Exeter to Paddington Cancelled
Exmouth - Paignton Hourly
Barnstable - St James Park no change.
NE/SW XC services unchanged, but no extensions to Penzance/Glasgow/Dundee/Aberdeen/
Paignton/Exeter/Bristol - Manchester services cut back to start/terminate at Bristol TM to/from the North.

Bristol - Pad 2tph via Bath. Fast services cancelled.
1tph to South Wales. Cardiff terminators cancelled
1tph Cotswolds - Pad. Fast services between Oxford Pad reduced to 1tph.
Oxford - Didcot 1tph
Didcot - Pad 1tph
TfL Rdg - Pad 1tph
Chetenham - Pad 1tp2hr
Frequency and carraige length reductions on Bristol area locals, including 3 coach Cardiff - Sailsbury 1tph vice 5 coach.

XC Bournmouth - Manchester no change
XC Southampton/Reading - Newcastle cut back to 1tph Reading - York.
1tph Cardiff - Nottingham. New Street to Nottinghams cancelled.
1tph New Street - Leciester - Stanstead Airport. Leicester locals from New Street Cancelled with Stanstead services picking up the extra stops.

Penzance sleeper service cancelled.

Obviously loads more, but that is a decent chunk.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would propose that a sensible initial move would be to move the whole network to a Sunday service, but with single-unit shuttles on branch lines which would have no Sunday service.

 

[Whistler40145]

Hourly Blackpool North to Manchester Airport

Blackpool North to Hazel Grove from Manchester Piccadilly only

Blackpool North to London Euston start/terminate at Preston

Blackpool North to York start/terminate at Preston

 

[Mag_seven]

I would propose that a sensible initial move would be to move the whole network to a Sunday service

Don't forget that some TOCs such as LNER and perhaps XC? actually run more services on a Sunday than any other day of the week. A good suggestion for urban and rural services though.

 

[Whistler40145]

Don't forget that some TOCs such as LNER and perhaps XC? actually run more services on a Sunday than any other day of the week. A good suggestion for urban and rural services though.

Surely that would mean some lines having no services whatsoever

 

[krus_aragon]

I would propose that a sensible initial move would be to move the whole network to a Sunday service, but with single-unit shuttles on branch lines which would have no Sunday service.

That's they frequency I'd anticipate from TfW on the North Wales Coast (hourly Holyhead-Crewe, Chester-Manchester, shuttle to Llandudno), but hopefully with services starting earlier in the day than they would on a Sunday!

 

[Ianno87]

I'd probably prioritise operating with less staff, since that's probably the biggest issue we're going to face, obviously with less demand too.

Sunday timetables but with a couple of extra commuter services and stopping slightly later in the evening?

Using the extra coaches to boost train lengths would be a good idea to minimise transmission. Maybe ask people to sit apart if they can?

SWR are quite well-practised at their strike timetable....

 

[6Gman]

Obvious ones would be using standard disruption contingency plans.

E.g. out of Euston losing one Birmingham/Manchester train per hour, losimg the Tring Stoppers, etc. Perhaps North Wales services cut back to Crewe.

Elsewhere, Gatwick/Heathrow/Stansted expresses reduced to half-hourly. That sort of thing.

It depends whether it's being done for health reasons or for economic reasons.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It depends whether it's being done for health reasons or for economic reasons.

And the two are quite opposite in a way, as empty trains pose a lower risk than full ones.

 

[Tio Terry]

There are pretty good emergency plans revolving around bad weather that can be implemented, I'm well aware of the ones for SWR because I use their services.

But events may impose their own restrictions. If staff have to be off work for extended periods then services may have to be curtailed simply because there is nobody to drive trains or, even more importantly, safely signal trains, if self isolation and actual infection rises to higher levels. There are limitless scenarios that could limit train travel, anybody with a safety critical role who is not available for work will have an impact. You can cover so much with extended hours but there comes a point when it is unsafe to continue.

 

[6Gman]

And the two are quite opposite in a way, as empty trains pose a lower risk than full ones.

Exactly.

 

[PTR 444]

Some ideas for SWR

Reduce Waterloo - Weymouth from 2tph to 1tph: Fast between Waterloo and Poole then all shacks to Weymouth.

Combine the Poole semi-fast and Portsmouth via Hedge End into one train dividing at Eastleigh.

Reduce Waterloo - Portsmouth via Haslemere from 2tph to 1tph. Fast to Haslemere then all shacks from there to PMH.

Reduce Waterloo - Alton from 2tph to 1tph

Cancel the Salisbury terminator and replace with an extension of a reduced Basingstoke stopper service (1tph)

Leave the WofE Main Line service to Exeter as it is, but cancel all Bristol/Yeovil Pen Mill extensions.

Cancel the Salisbury 6 and have GWR serve Dean, Dunbridge and Chandler’s Ford (requiring a reversal at Soton Central to continue to Portsmouth).

Extend the Portsmouth - Southampton stopper to Totton so that Millbrook and Redbridge are still served following cancellation of Salisbury 6.

 

[Scotrail314209]

For ScotRail:

Reduce the Edinburgh to Glasgow via Falkirk High to 2tph calling at Croy, Falkirk High, Polmont, Linlithgow and Haymarket.

Suspend Barrhead services and have the Kilmarnock service reduced to 1tph picking up the intermediate stops.

East Kilbride: no change.

Reduce Ayr services to 2tph and call at all stations.

Largs/Ardrossan: 1tph to Largs, Ardrossan Harbour trains should only run if it is a ferry connection.

Glasgow - Edinburgh via Cumbernauld. Cut the service back to Falkirk Grahamston with 1tph terminating at Cumbernauld instead.

Glasgow - Anniesland: reduce to 1tph

Cathcart/Newton/Neilston: suspend the Inner/Outer circle services.

Borders: No change

Fife: Scrap the Cowdenbeath services and use excess units to strengthen Glenrothes, Perth and Dundee trains

Glasgow - Stirling/Alloa: Reduce to 1tph to/from Alloa only.

InterCity services: no change

Gourock/Wemyss Bay: Reduce to 2tph Gourock (all stations) and 1tph Wemyss Bay (semi-fast).

Argyle and North Clyde: Reduce to 1tph Milngavie - Motherwell via Hamilton
1tph Dalmuir - Motherwell via Whifflet
1tph Milngavie - Larkhall
1tph Dalmuir - Larkhall

Suspend Balloch - Airdrie services and instead have the Springburn - Dumbarton services extend to Balloch.
Helensburgh to Edinburgh would remain unchanged and would run 2tph calling at most stations. Milngavie - Edinburgh would be suspended. Extra 1tph could also be provided between Bathgate and Edinburgh only.


By cancelling some services you allow units to be freed up to strengthen the services that do run.

 

[PTR 444]

[deleted]

 

[Fawkes Cat]

I would propose that a sensible initial move would be to move the whole network to a Sunday service, but with single-unit shuttles on branch lines which would have no Sunday service.

This sounds like a sensible place to start - unless it turns out that timetable planners are (a) immune to coronavirus and (b) are keen to draft a completely new timetable on the fly.

So to make it even easier to create, would the logic be
- MF times for first/last trains, but
- Sun timetable where there is one and
- Sat timetable where no Sunday service.

 

[VT 390]

I agree with having Sunday timetables on most routes however I do think that the normal first and last trains should run as normal.

 

[krus_aragon]

It's nice when we all come to a consensus on the first page.

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

If push comes to shove - on CrossCountry's Voyager and HST services I'd prioritise the longer-distance services by running an hourly service to and from Manchester and Bournemouth only - no services to and from Manchester and Bristol.

On the XC services to and from the North East, I'd run the current services to and from Scotland and the South West.

So basically the only XC services from Oxford heading north are the Manchester services - south: Bournemouth bound trains. Passengers for between Derby - Newcastle would change at Birmingham New Street onto the xx:03. Including vice versa.

Rolling stock wise, I'd run double Voyagers on all the reduced Manchester services and double Voyagers on the booked Voyager services on the routes to and from Scotland and the South West and the HST's on the present routes or an extra 2 to compensate for the reduced frequency.

I'm not saying this will be the case but this is what I'd do.

 

[bramling]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896169

I know speculation is very popular on this forum so I thought I would create this thread to see what suggestions or predictions our members have.

Any suggestions/ideas/predictions can cover any route in the UK...

Really they still need to run as many services as possible running as long trains as possible. With transport being undoubtedly a place where there’s a risk of spread there’s no value in matching capacity perfectly to demand.

For something like GN it should be as many 12-car trains as possible, and concentrate resources on where people are actually travelling - so ideally turning some services back short of the extremities of the route in order to focus on London journeys. No point for example in having 6tph to and from Cambridge off-peak like the proper timetable does. Turning back at somewhere like Letchworth would make better use of resources.

Clearly the limiting factor is going to be crew availability if we start to see large numbers of operating staff off for one reason or another, as seems inevitable.

 

[Bald Rick]

It will be a combination of things depending on each operators’ circumstance. Likely to include one or more of:

Saturday service in the week
Contingency timetable (usually applied for bad weather, or strikes)
Reduced services on Sundays
Reducing train lengths