EU after Brexit

[Sad Sprinter]

Lots of discussion on the UK after Brexit-but any ideas what the course of the EU will be from now on?

Personally, I think a Federation is out of the picture, I think fiscal politics in a federal Europe would be nightmare anyway. I think its really hard to say because none of the grand dreams of Europe never actually happened. I.e-ever closer Europe has stalled, Britain never joined the Euro, the much predicted breakup of the EU during the eurozone crisis by eurosceptics did not happen. So its hard to predict its future in a way.

 

[birchesgreen]

They'll quietly take stock for a bit, need to reorganise things without a key member being present, especially finances. The power grouping will also shift a bit.

 

[Dave1987]

The Euro is now the second most important currency in the world, second to the dollar. The "frugal four" are slowly but surely hammering away at the less economically sound nations to sort their countries out and get with the program going forward. The Covid situation has definitely brought the EU closer together I believe. Been a sharp reality check for some of the nations. But this new trade deal with China is a bit of a result for them. China is predicted to be one of the largest economies in the world soon. The real test for the EU is on top of the Canada deal is getting an agreement with the US and Australia. They already have one with the South American countries. If they can sort out their internal quarrels, which should be easier without the UK, they should be looking good going forward. At the end of the day the way the single market and customs union is set up with goods travelling thousands of miles without borders or any impediments is an economic dream, and very very efficient.

 

[dgl]

I suppose it's when you start needing help, like during this covid crisis, that you realise how important the EU is to your country and how difficult it would have been without them, whilst some members might not like Germany's might in all of this they probably like the fact that they can put money in.
In the end once you take away all the money that the EU spent in Britain how much did we really contribute and will not having us there give them some cost savings which make the loss of our cash have little effect.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I suppose it's when you start needing help, like during this covid crisis, that you realise how important the EU is to your country and how difficult it would have been without them, whilst some members might not like Germany's might in all of this they probably like the fact that they can put money in.
In the end once you take away all the money that the EU spent in Britain how much did we really contribute and will not having us there give them some cost savings which make the loss of our cash have little effect.

I think not having us there would mean they would have less money not more.

I also think the EU would move more leftwards without us and towards a Franco-federalist stance-perhaps alienating Germany and Holland.

 

[biko]

I think not having us there would mean they would have less money not more.

The negotiations about the money were all mostly about money that will be lent from the capital market. The UK always was a country trying to reduce the amount spent, so the proportion of countries wanting a higher budget is now larger, so I think more money has been promised now than would have been done with the UK still in the EU.

I also think the EU would move more leftwards without us and towards a Franco-federalist stance-perhaps alienating Germany and Holland.

This is nonsense. Most leaders of EU countries are right-wing (see the distribution on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Council). Also the parliament is really balanced between all different sides (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament). The EU is actually seen as a more right-wing institution here on the continent as large companies really have the advantages from it and also influence policy.

The trend I personally see is that the EU is adopting more green policies such as reopening former cross-border railway lines. Also the dream of some strong Europhiles to have a united states of Europe is not going ahead, there is nearly no support for it, at least not in the Netherlands. There is just one political party in favour of that and that party will probably lose half its seats in the next election.

 

[Journeyman]

I'll tell you a couple of things for certain, which is (a) no other country will seriously contemplate leaving, and (b) the EU will not collapse, despite gleeful predictions in certain places.

That said, if Poland and Hungary continue down their very authoritarian and illiberal paths, I could see them getting thrown out as the ultimate sanction.

 

[RT4038]

The negotiations about the money were all mostly about money that will be lent from the capital market. The UK always was a country trying to reduce the amount spent, so the proportion of countries wanting a higher budget is now larger, so I think more money has been promised now than would have been done with the UK still in the EU.

This is nonsense. Most leaders of EU countries are right-wing (see the distribution on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Council). Also the parliament is really balanced between all different sides (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament). The EU is actually seen as a more right-wing institution here on the continent as large companies really have the advantages from it and also influence policy.

The trend I personally see is that the EU is adopting more green policies such as reopening former cross-border railway lines. Also the dream of some strong Europhiles to have a united states of Europe is not going ahead, there is nearly no support for it, at least not in the Netherlands. There is just one political party in favour of that and that party will probably lose half its seats in the next election.

Possibly the term 'right wing' means different things in Britain compared to Europe?

 

[biko]

Possibly the term 'right wing' means different things in Britain compared to Europe?

I don’t think so. The largest group of parties in Europe are the Christian conservative parties (which doesn’t really exist in the UK, but would in my book clearly be right-wing as they are socially conservative) and liberal parties which are centre parties or right-wing depending on the country. I believe the Conservatives were also part of that group. Those parties are certainly not left-wing.

Left-wing parties in Europe are social-democrats (Labour was part of that), greens and socialists. Those would certainly be classified as left-wing in the UK too. My point was mainly that most prime ministers and presidents are party members part of the the liberal or Christian groups and just a few social-democrats. In the European Parliament, there is no majority for any of the groups but conservative parties have most seats.

 

[SteveP29]

I'll tell you a couple of things for certain, which is (a) no other country will seriously contemplate leaving, and (b) the EU will not collapse, despite gleeful predictions in certain places.

That said, if Poland and Hungary continue down their very authoritarian and illiberal paths, I could see them getting thrown out as the ultimate sanction.

I have a tweet bookmarked in Twitter to come back to in 10 years time, when the person who said it, said the EU will be but a memory as it will have broken up and the UK will not be able to count its post Brexit successes as we will have that many.
I've said in reply that that is patent bullsh*t and much as I don't like to, I will be back in 10 years to say I told you so

 

[Cowley]

I have a tweet bookmarked in Twitter to come back to in 10 years time, when the person who said it, said the EU will be but a memory as it will have broken up and the UK will not be able to count its post Brexit successes as we will have that many.
I've said in reply that that is patent bullsh*t and much as I don't like to, I will be back in 10 years to say I told you so

Blimey Steve, that’s what I’d call playing the long game...