Eurostar’s shrinking ambitions

[Austriantrain]

Eurostar are fighting very hard (as are thr dutch) to maintain the Amsterdam services during the ongoing engineering works, and Brussels runs 1tp2h full for the entire day, it's very viable as an interchange for western Germany. I don't see Brussels being withdrawn any time soon. The bays at Brussels aren't much use for domestic services and the security for the Dutch extensions is designed to be flippable (the Dutch Royal train also used it last week to save a flight from Amsterdam to Brussels) so you don't save much while Brussels has the space for a full trainload and Lille is much less convenient from Germany/Belgium.

I would think that medium-term, E* should run:

- London-Paris nonstop, mostly hourly, half-hourly in the peaks
- London-Lille-Brussels-Amsterdam two-hourly, with London-Brussels hourly if necessary in the peaks
- London-Ebbsfleet-Ashford-Calais-Lille-Paris, probably two-hourly.

One or the other Lille service should have guaranteed connections to TGV interconnexion (probably the slower one, if feasible, because its catchment area in the UK is larger). And the Brussels service to ex-Thalys to Germany (or ICE, but as that’s a different operator, it’s more complicated).

Provided the border control issues can be ironed out, that would seem like a decent offer, enabling to reach large parts of Western Europe with only one change from London.

Obviously, Trenitalia or RENFE as competitors would not go amiss either, but they would not offer interchange opportunities.

 

[zwk500]

I would think that medium-term, E* should run:

- London-Paris nonstop, mostly hourly, half-hourly in the peaks
- London-Lille-Brussels-Amsterdam two-hourly, with London-Brussels hourly if necessary in the peaks
- London-Ebbsfleet-Ashford-Calais-Lille-Paris, probably two-hourly.

One or the other Lille service should have guaranteed connections to TGV interconnexion (probably the slower one, if feasible, because its catchment area in the UK is larger). And the Brussels service to ex-Thalys to Germany (or ICE, but as that’s a different operator, it’s more complicated).

Provided the border control issues can be ironed out, that would seem like a decent offer, enabling to reach large parts of Western Europe with only one change from London.

Obviously, Trenitalia or RENFE as competitors would not go amiss either, but they would not offer interchange opportunities.

So I'd modify that slightly:

1tph London-Paris, 1tp2h stopping at Ebbsfleet and Calais (potentially mix & match or just have A Fast-Stopping alternating pattern). Lille is sacrificed completely because the changes can be made (albeit less smoothly) in Paris.
1tp2h London-Brussels-Rotterdam-Amsterdam
1tp2h London-Ashford-Lille-Brussels.

Peak additional as needed, potentially with a couple of early morning/late evening inversions of the Kent connections (so Ebbsfleet-Brussels and Ashford-Paris do get served albeit not all-day). This provides the fast journeys between London and Paris/Brussels/Amsterdam, maintains connections to France in the Belgian trains, provides Kent with the preferred links (Ashford to Brussels for work, Ebbsfleet to France for M25 Parkway status), and has 1tph between the Three capitals. It may be very similar to what Eurostar were doing in 2019 anyway.

 

[duncanp]

Lille does have the potential to provide convenient connections to destinations all over France, which would compensate for the lack of through services.

I have seen the situation where a TGV from Lille to Perpignan was held so that passengers could transfer from the late running Eurostar from London, which arrived on the opposite platform to the TGV.

I think the border control issues will get easier once ETIAS is introduced, as it will eliminate the need for stamping the passport, and the scanning of the passport would also check whether non EU passport holders have breached the 90 day limit on staying.

 

[Austriantrain]

So I'd modify that slightly:

1tph London-Paris, 1tp2h stopping at Ebbsfleet and Calais (potentially mix & match or just have A Fast-Stopping alternating pattern). Lille is sacrificed completely because the changes can be made (albeit less smoothly) in Paris.

Forcing people to change in Paris instead of Lille will likely lose you 90% of potential passengers. Even having people trek from Lille Europe to Flandres will lose you a lot. These are no day-trips with a backpack; most people will have luggage and no intention of schlepping them around on the metro.

Having good service to Lille Europe and guaranteed connections there is a prerequisite to encourage people to use the train to reach other French destinations.

 

[zwk500]

Forcing people to change in Paris instead of Lille will likely lose you 90% of potential passengers. Even having people trek from Lille Europe to Flandres will lose you a lot. These are no day-trips with a backpack; most people will have luggage and no intention of schlepping them around on the metro.

Not for the London-Paris market, the majority of which is heading to Paris. Lille stops are maintained for the other market in the Brussels trains. You can easily fill trains in Paris, why stop at Lille (especially when Eurostar don't sell intra-French tickets).

Just a reminder, current service is 1tp2h London-Paris non-stop, 1tp2h London-Lille-Brussels, with occasional peak extras and 4tpd dropping Lille to run to Amsterdam.

 

[AdamWW]

Not for the London-Paris market, the majority of which is heading to Paris. Lille stops are maintained for the other market in the Brussels trains. You can easily fill trains in Paris, why stop at Lille (especially when Eurostar don't sell intra-French tickets).

Just a reminder, current service is 1tp2h London-Paris non-stop, 1tp2h London-Lille-Brussels, with occasional peak extras and 4tpd dropping Lille to run to Amsterdam.

Do the Amsterdam trains no longer call at Lille?

The one I travelled on last year did.

 

[zwk500]

Do the Amsterdam trains no longer call at Lille?

The one I travelled on last year did.

Looking at the May 22 timetable, only the first 2 outbound trains skipped Lille. the later trains to Amsterdam and all trains back called. I must have just got luck as I usually travelled out early because I had several connections to make to get to Maastricht.

 

[mike57]

I don't believe there will any changes to the entry/exit arrangements between the EU and the UK for the foreseeable future. Neither of the two major parties will want to reopen the EU debate as it was too divisive with the divisions cutting across party boundaries. The only way there would be a change of entry/exit controls would be if the UK rejoined the EU and came into the Schengen area.

Bearing in mind this fact we therefore have an ongoing capacity limit imposed by the facilities at (mainly) St Pancras, and without some serious investment this isn't going to change.

So Eurostar have a limit on the number of services they can provide, and they will therefore limit their operations to the most lucrative routes. Given they receive no subsidies they have no reason to run any other services. While they can fill London - Paris, London - Brussels - (Amsterdam) trains at 'full price' or close to it they have no incentive to do anything else as it will eat into profits.

In terms of competition if another rail operator were to operate out St Pancras then the same limits will still apply, the size of the 'cake' is governed by St Pancras facilities, you can share the cake round, but there is no more cake. So a competing operator would need to open and staff a new terminal, and the costs and difficulties would I suspect make that not worth doing.

So to me its not so much shrinking amibitions as a realisation that there is no forseeable increase in capacity, and therefore Eurostar need to make as much as they can from the current infrastructure.

The only way this might change is if governments got involved and given the situation in the UK and the EU this will not happen at the moment. The UK government are struggling with costs of running our internal services, so there is no way a government will start looking to pour money into international services, and I think this applies which ever party is in power (unless the Greens or similar held a balance of power).

One idea would be for a competing (probably low cost) operator to reopen Ashford, and offer an Ashford - Lille Shuttle, with passengers using SE services at the UK end and SNCF at Lille for onward travel. Lille is underused, we have travelled via Lille a couple of times since Covid and it could handle a lot more people if were staffed up. However I suspect the economics would be marginal at best and probably unprofitable. It would have to be lower cost end to end to attract people, and that probably wouldn't leave enough margin.

So like it or not I cant see any changes bar some tweaking around the edges for a considerable period of time.

 

[Austriantrain]

Not for the London-Paris market, the majority of which is heading to Paris. Lille stops are maintained for the other market in the Brussels trains. You can easily fill trains in Paris, why stop at Lille (especially when Eurostar don't sell intra-French tickets).

Just a reminder, current service is 1tp2h London-Paris non-stop, 1tp2h London-Lille-Brussels, with occasional peak extras and 4tpd dropping Lille to run to Amsterdam.

Since you replied to my first post: I explicitly wrote that London - Paris should be nonstop anyway.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I don't believe there will any changes to the entry/exit arrangements between the EU and the UK for the foreseeable future.

One option that might be on the table could be to create joint border control using e-gates only. UK/EU citizens could therefore just pass through a single electronic control, leaving manual controls to those who aren't resident in either jurisdiction. The EU might even agree to non-visa nationals registered with ETIAS or with residence permits in the EU to use the one-stop gates on entry, which would leave very few people needing manual control in St Pancras. There's even the prospect that the UK ETA will enable non-UK/EU citizens to go through the e-gates too, so the amount of space needed for controls will diminish considerable.

You could even go further and have simply e-gates on entry to the departure lounges, with secondary controls available for those who require it for whatever reason. It should be perfectly possible to tell people before departure whether they need a secondary control or not, with the e-gates also informing them of this fact if they try and pass.

 

[Sm5]

One option that might be on the table could be to create joint border control using e-gates only. UK/EU citizens could therefore just pass through a single electronic control, leaving manual controls to those who aren't resident in either jurisdiction. The EU might even agree to non-visa nationals registered with ETIAS or with residence permits in the EU to use the one-stop gates on entry, which would leave very few people needing manual control in St Pancras. There's even the prospect that the UK ETA will enable non-UK/EU citizens to go through the e-gates too, so the amount of space needed for controls will diminish considerable.

You could even go further and have simply e-gates on entry to the departure lounges, with secondary controls available for those who require it for whatever reason. It should be perfectly possible to tell people before departure whether they need a secondary control or not, with the e-gates also informing them of this fact if they try and pass.

1. who pays for it ?
2. whos database is being accessed ?
3. whos juridisiction does that database reside ?

Border controls isnt just about keeping undesirables out, it can be about keeping undesirables in too..

I cant see immigration being outsourced or joint ventured anytime soon, by either side… Even Gibraltar is causing problems, with Frontex using Spanish staff.

Lille does have the potential to provide convenient connections to destinations all over France, which would compensate for the lack of through services.

I have seen the situation where a TGV from Lille to Perpignan was held so that passengers could transfer from the late running Eurostar from London, which arrived on the opposite platform to the TGV.

I think the border control issues will get easier once ETIAS is introduced, as it will eliminate the need for stamping the passport, and the scanning of the passport would also check whether non EU passport holders have breached the 90 day limit on staying.

ETIAS will cause absolute unmitigated chaos for its first year, at every border on the EU, land, sea or air.
it will be a first class cluster….

why, because everyone first time visiting has to give their finger prints and sync their registration…. And for most people globally descending into Europe that first year, will be their first time, ending up in the slow line.

Remember the chaos of US immigration, with 3-4 hour delays back in 2002 after post sept 11th new entry requirements was introduced ?

long term it wont save resource or cost, just those who are known will get the automated route, where are new and changed people will be diverted to the slow line using repurposed resources that exist today.

For Eurostar, thats reason enough to give some routes a miss for a year. The South East will become a car park when this begins. Ive no idea how school trips will handle this, for kids first time off to Europe need to be off Loaded, finger printed (and find little johnny who wasnt registered cannot go etc)..

it will be a painful summer Whilst Europe builds its database of British citizens fingerprints, then starts cross referencing for historical criminals etc…

 

[Citybreak1]

Can’t believe someone suggested they would cancel Brussels. These trains are very busy infact I have 2 booked. The stations they have left are all low passenger numbers. Every one that shut I can remember a max of 50 passengers getting on. Todays results show Amsterdam double passenger numbers too. The only competition that should run is German trains. I think the new branding will help and if they keep Amsterdam open next year the future is bright.

 

[duncanp]

ETIAS will cause absolute unmitigated chaos for its first year, at every border on the EU, land, sea or air.
it will be a first class cluster….

why, because everyone first time visiting has to give their finger prints and sync their registration…. And for most people globally descending into Europe that first year, will be their first time, ending up in the slow line.

The fingerprinting requirements are not part of ETIAS, but rather a result of the Entry And Exit System (EES), which is a separate scheme.

President Macron of France knows that the EES scheme will result in chaos, which is why he wants it to be delayed until after the Paris olympics next year.

 

[Gaelan]

There's even the prospect that the UK ETA will enable non-UK/EU citizens to go through the e-gates too

UK e-Gates handle citizens of about a dozen third countries (including, notably for me, the USA) today.

 

[Sm5]

UK e-Gates handle citizens of about a dozen third countries (including, notably for me, the USA) today.

Thats for entyr to the UK, not entry to the EU AND exit of the UK.

 

[Gaelan]

Thats for entyr to the UK, not entry to the EU AND exit of the UK.

I guess I'm confused about why accepting third countries through eGates has anything to do with the UK ETA (as Cloud Strife suggested) - currently the UK supports eGate entry, and doesn't require passport control on exit at all, so it seems like any changes needed to support third-country eGate usage would be on the EU/Schengen side only. Indeed, I think the hypothetical shared eGates would only need to exist in the EU->UK direction, as currently UK->EU doesn't have any UK passport control.

 

[peteb]

Do the Amsterdam trains no longer call at Lille?

The one I travelled on last year did.

The 1804 London to Amsterdam yesterday (26th June) stopped at Lille to set down passengers and about 5 from my standard class carriage got out there.

Incidentally, the train was still 75% full on arrival at Amsterdam. No sign of reduced capacity either in standard or business class. Packed from London, no spare seats in our carriage (4).

 

[Sm5]

I guess I'm confused about why accepting third countries through eGates has anything to do with the UK ETA (as Cloud Strife suggested) - currently the UK supports eGate entry, and doesn't require passport control on exit at all, so it seems like any changes needed to support third-country eGate usage would be on the EU/Schengen side only. Indeed, I think the hypothetical shared eGates would only need to exist in the EU->UK direction, as currently UK->EU doesn't have any UK passport control.

We do seem to have an honesty bucket when it comes to immigration departures.
But I thought there was a British passport check upon departure at St Pancras, before joining the France queue right behind it ?

however airlines provide API data to the Home Office.

Exit checks fact sheet

www.gov.uk

last time I exited Dover, (school coach trip), I do recall uk immigration boarding the Bus to ask if there was anyone without a British passport, before we drove through to French immigration. (there was, they got off, had docs checked and reboarded).

 

[zwk500]

I guess I'm confused about why accepting third countries through eGates has anything to do with the UK ETA (as Cloud Strife suggested) - currently the UK supports eGate entry, and doesn't require passport control on exit at all, so it seems like any changes needed to support third-country eGate usage would be on the EU/Schengen side only. Indeed, I think the hypothetical shared eGates would only need to exist in the EU->UK direction, as currently UK->EU doesn't have any UK passport control.

Not for immigration rules, but Passports are scanned out by Mitie at St Pancras. You'd need to get the PAF to agree to share their data with UK Home Office to intercept people with warrants etc, which they are unlikely to want to do for sovereignty reasons.

 

[AdamWW]

We do seem to have an honesty bucket when it comes to immigration departures.
But I thought there was a British passport check upon departure at St Pancras, before joining the France queue right behind it ?

I believe that outgoing passport checks happen, but they're done by the transport company not Border Force.
So Eurostar provide staff to man the outgoing booths in London, and with airlines your passport is checked by gate staff.

The 1804 London to Amsterdam yesterday (26th June) stopped at Lille to set down passengers and about 5 from my standard class carriage got out there.

Incidentally, the train was still 75% full on arrival at Amsterdam. No sign of reduced capacity either in standard or business class. Packed from London, no spare seats in our carriage (4).

From what I've read it is the trains in the morning peak that operate with limited capacity as delays would then propagate through the rest of the day.

I wonder if cheaper tickets are available to Amsterdam vs from if the full train is available unlike the half which is all that can be used going the other way.

 

[Gaelan]

But I thought there was a British passport check upon departure at St Pancras, before joining the France queue right behind it ?

Not for immigration rules, but Passports are scanned out by Mitie at St Pancras. You'd need to get the PAF to agree to share their data with UK Home Office to intercept people with warrants etc, which they are unlikely to want to do for sovereignty reasons.

Ah, I think I remember that from when I went through StP. I think didn't think much of it, as I assumed it was the same as passport checks when departing US/UK airports which, afaik, are solely as a form of ID and to ensure you won't have problems on the other end that they then have to deal with, as the immigration concerns are handled by API*. Sounds like that's not the case.

Anyway, with that confusion cleared up: a single set of e-Gates does seem to require a spirit of cooperation that's rather lacking at the moment, but in theory two sets of e-Gates shouldn't be much worse capacity-wise than one, so just implementing e-Gates for EU entry/exit would go a long way.

*For anyone unfamiliar: Advance Passenger Information, a list of passengers provided from the airline to the government, used to eliminate exit checks in a few countries including the US and the UK.

 

[zwk500]

Ah, I think I remember that from when I went through StP. I think didn't think much of it, as I assumed it was the same as passport checks when departing US/UK airports which, afaik, are solely as a form of ID and to ensure you won't have problems on the other end that they then have to deal with, as the immigration concerns are handled by API*. Sounds like that's not the case.

I believe (but am not 100% sure) that because Eurostar doesn't take any information when booking, the check by Mitie at St Pancras is for API. It may well also be used to stop people trying to leave the UK who shouldn't, in the same way airport police will intercept people at the gate, although again I'm not 100% sure on that.

Merging the checks is extremely unlikely to happen because of rules about sharing security information between EU states and non-member states. It would also require a logistical agreement between the UK and French authorities as to who will pay how much etc, and whether there would still be reciprocal staff, and also quite possibly would need legislative changes in UK, France, Belgium, Netherlands and the EU to give the reciprocal forces the Authority to deny entry to another country. Removing one scan of the passport is a tiny gain of passenger throughput, especially at the UK end where the outgoing check is minimal.

 

[miami]

If you have 5 exit e-gates like the last time I went through Paris, and each one took an average of 45 seconds like the last time I went through Paris, you will only get 400 people an hour through. Doesn't matter how long you queue up for. Oh to be in Schengen. Or have freedom of movement.

 

[zwk500]

If you have 5 exit e-gates like the last time I went through Paris, and each one took an average of 45 seconds like the last time I went through Paris, you will only get 400 people an hour through. Doesn't matter how long you queue up for. Oh to be in Schengen. Or have freedom of movement.

Was there a fault? Usually they take between 10 and 15 seconds.

 

[SynthD]

Perhaps Eurostar should wait and see what the ETIAS mess looks like before increasing their ambitions again. Perhaps only after that, how much more through ticketing with other Thalys services can happen?

 

[Austriantrain]

Perhaps Eurostar should wait and see what the ETIAS mess looks like before increasing their ambitions again. Perhaps only after that, how much more through ticketing with other Thalys services can happen?

Increased connections will indeed need more capacity - if E* cannot, due to the border issues, provide enough capacity for its core routes, putting a focus on connections helps no one (nor does competition, because the same capacity constraints remain).

 

[Chester1]

Perhaps Eurostar should wait and see what the ETIAS mess looks like before increasing their ambitions again. Perhaps only after that, how much more through ticketing with other Thalys services can happen?

I think this is what they are doing and its the sensible thing to do, especially when they have a lot of debt from the pandemic.

UK ETA will cause similar problems but its getting rolled out from this October (for Qataris only) as individual nationalities or groups of countries (five middle eastern countries are second in February). I would guess that under UK-EU trade and co-operation agreement the EU27 will need to be added in one go, probably last because they will form majority of users. The EU has gone for a big bang approach launching it for all 60 eligible nationalities at once which looks like a "courageous" decision.

 

[Trainbike46]

When I came through the Eurostar arrivals area last weekend, I could see that it was significantly smaller than before. Most of it has been turned in a waiting area with seats that is fully separated by glass walls from the arrivals area, presumably as an extra departures area, so that in the near future more departures can run, or so that more seats can be sold on the departures that already run.

 

[TFN]

It looks like Eurostar are permanently rolling out “Smartcheck” at St Pancras from 3rd July.

This allows you to add your biometric passport data onto an app along with your travel information beforehand.

From 24 hours before you travel, you confirm via the app that you’re travelling. When you get to St Pancras, there are special gates that scan your face and allows you to skip the UK passport checks by Mitie staff. You don’t even need to scan your ticket for this.

You’ll only need your passport checked by the French.

I’ll try it on my next E* trip next week. I trialled it last year and it seemed to work well.

 

[peteb]

It looks like Eurostar are permanently rolling out “Smartcheck” at St Pancras from 3rd July.

This allows you to add your biometric passport data onto an app along with your travel information beforehand.

From 24 hours before you travel, you confirm via the app that you’re travelling. When you get to St Pancras, there are special gates that scan your face and allows you to skip the UK passport checks by Mitie staff. You don’t even need to scan your ticket for this.

You’ll only need your passport checked by the French.

I’ll try it on my next E* trip next week. I trialled it last year and it seemed to work well.

Last Monday when I left UK on Eurostar my passport was scanned by a person in a booth, I then proceeded to e gate which let me through, a French Official then stamped my passport "in to France".....even though I had not yet boarded the train. Whole process took a couple of minutes despite large numbers queuing.