First Group Sheffield - London via Retford open access proposal

[A S Leib]

How much is that down to the fact that it's LNER that prices the "Any Permitted" fare and EMR price "via Chesterfield" - as in ORR data is assuming many purchasing the former will all go to/from KGX?

It could also just be down to poor attribution between London terminals; I doubt London Liverpool Street is the 97th most common origin / destination for Manchester Piccadilly, but that's what the database says.

 

[Fishandbananas]

It could also just be down to poor attribution between London terminals; I doubt London Liverpool Street is the 97th most common origin / destination for Manchester Piccadilly, but that's what the database says.

I presume for the example you gave this is from split ticketing with people splitting at Liverpool Street say going from Manchester to Ipswich.

 

[Nottingham59]

How much is that down to the fact that it's LNER that prices the "Any Permitted" fare and EMR price "via Chesterfield" - as in ORR data is assuming many purchasing the former will all go to/from KGX?

I don't know. But it's the same pattern as Nottingham, even though here EMR prices the "any permitted" and LNER prices "via Grantham".

So it still looks like there is a substantial flow from Sheffield to London via the ECML. Even if the split is more even than the ORR data suggests

 

[cactustwirly]

How much is that down to the fact that it's LNER that prices the "Any Permitted" fare and EMR price "via Chesterfield" - as in ORR data is assuming many purchasing the former will all go to/from KGX?

I couldn't see an Any Permitted fare, just via Chesterfield or Not Via Leicester

 

[185]

More FirstGroup theft revenue abstraction of existing passenger revenue - an established, rich pickings intercity route, income which belongs in the hands of the DfT and the state to cross subsidise less profitable rail services which the taxpayer is instead having to fund.

I still feel Lumo should never have been allowed - their arrival in 2021 "bringing new passenger markets" is rubbish - post covid figures were rising anyway. This too is another desperate attempt at raiding the DfT revenue pot to patch up KleptoGroup's dodgy business.

Lumo are not like WSMR, Grand Central or Hull Trains, those actually went somewhere without a regular direct London service. FirstGroup's Lumo is a purely parasitic business, similar to this bid.

Worksop and Woodhouse are red herrings, very few passengers likely - their prime target is the Retford and Sheffield cash.

 

[Nottingham59]

revenue abstraction of existing passenger revenue - an established, rich pickings intercity route, income which belongs in the hands of the DfT and the state to cross subsidise less profitable rail services which the taxpayer is instead having to fund.

Or alternatively, any excess income from intercity routes should be ploughed back into growing those profitable routes, through cutting ticket prices and building capacity.

 

[A S Leib]

Lumo are not like WSMR, Grand Central or Hull Trains, those actually went somewhere without a regular direct London service. FirstGroup's Lumo is a purely parasitic business, similar to this bid.

Morpeth only has five LNER London services per day whilst on average there's 37 passengers between Morpeth and King's Cross each day, and 46 daily between Stevenage and Newcastle and Edinburgh (one morning LNER train per day to Edinburgh and one evening which goes as far as Newcastle). Ideally that service would be provided by LNER but going by the Scotsman's report that they still want one of the hourly London–Edinburghs to call at York and Newcastle only that doesn't seem likely, especially without HS2's eastern leg. The Lumo service is also genuinely useful for last-minute travel (£15-£124 cheaper than a walk-up LNER fare each way for Newcastle–London) in the absence of a Trent Valley stopper-like service for the ECML - there's far worse culprits there, like TPE undercutting the via Penrith Preston–Carlisle off-peak day return by £3.50.

Worksop and Woodhouse are red herrings, very few passengers likely - their prime target is the Retford and Sheffield cash.

If it ends up being part of Hull Trains, wouldn't they get a share from the Retford calls on Hull services anyway?

 

[Meerkat]

More FirstGroup theft revenue abstraction of existing passenger revenue - an established, rich pickings intercity route, income which belongs in the hands of the DfT and the state to cross subsidise less profitable rail services which the taxpayer is instead having to fund.

The other side of that is that it isn’t the state that is cross subsidising, it is price gouged intercity passengers being forced to subsidise basket cases.
If a service is deemed worthy of subsidy then society (ie all taxpayers) should do it rather than hiding the subsidy and ripping off rail passengers.

 

[RailWonderer]

More FirstGroup theft revenue abstraction of existing passenger revenue - an established, rich pickings intercity route, income which belongs in the hands of the DfT and the state to cross subsidise less profitable rail services which the taxpayer is instead having to fund.

I still feel Lumo should never have been allowed - their arrival in 2021 "bringing new passenger markets" is rubbish - post covid figures were rising anyway. This too is another desperate attempt at raiding the DfT revenue pot to patch up KleptoGroup's dodgy business.

Lumo are not like WSMR, Grand Central or Hull Trains, those actually went somewhere without a regular direct London service. FirstGroup's Lumo is a purely parasitic business, similar to this bid.

Privatisation drives efficiency, lower fares, more consumer choice and potentially better trains as well. Everything that was wrong with BR was complacency, inertia and inefficiency. I'm all for OA operators as they inject life and ideas into operations that when left to a disinterested goernment only leads to revenue grabbing schemes like single leg fare pricing.

if I'm right you're in favour of nationalisation and low taxes? You are againt taxpayers paying more but want everything under national control. That's a recipe for disaster.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jan 2024 ==

Or alternatively, any excess income from intercity routes should be ploughed back into growing those profitable routes, through cutting ticket prices and building capacity.

Which does not happen. LNER can earn record revenue but if the govt wants to cut rail subsidy it will regardless of how well one TOC under the DfT's rule might be doing.

 

[Clarence Yard]

This is adding competition on existing flows where there is competition already. There is a decent amount of London to Sheffield traffic that goes via the ECML now, mostly via Retford but some via Doncaster.

Both Hull Trains and LNER are the beneficiaries of this existing competition with EMR.

And for everyone here’s benefit, Lumo has not abstracted existing London to Edinburgh revenue - the rail market share of that flow has grown substantially as has the all rail operator revenue. Lumo is being held up in the wider transport industry as a good way that Rail can take on the short haul airlines.

 

[moonarrow458]

I still feel Lumo should never have been allowed - their arrival in 2021 "bringing new passenger markets" is rubbish - post covid figures were rising anyway. This too is another desperate attempt at raiding the DfT revenue pot to patch up KleptoGroup's dodgy business.

Lumo are not like WSMR, Grand Central or Hull Trains, those actually went somewhere without a regular direct London service. FirstGroup's Lumo is a purely parasitic business, similar to this bid.

Having used Lumo once for a London to Edinburgh and being forced to use LNER on the way (due to enginering works), i can say that Lumo are not stealing my business from LNER. LNERs cl.800s are so unpleasant and uncomfortable to me, that if the option of Lumo weren't availible to me for future London to Scotland journeys, i would sooner fly or use Avanti West Coast than LNER. Heck id sooner postpone my trip than use LNER.

Lumo offer much needed competion to the London to Scotland market, particularly against the airlines bargain basement fares, which can only be a good thing in an era of decarbonisation. Then if LNER do happen to loose some leisure travelers to Lumo then perhaps they should consider why their supposedly more premium offering with far more capacity and journeys each day, is struggling to retain its customers. Privatisation is often billed as breeding innovation through competition, if LNER find themselves loosing market share then they'll have to innovate.

As for this new proposed Sheffield venture, i welcome it, especially if it makes railtravel to Sheffield affordable at least 2x a day from London. At present i have never used EMR to Sheffield because of their extortionate prices (even with a railcard), meanwhile National Express can often get me there for less than a tenner each way, which is more prefferable despite being slower and less comfortable.

Sheffield is also home to a university so with affordably priced fares i could see such a service encouraging a modal switch from coaches for students, and since the proposed timings are slower in most cases than EMR any time conscious travellers will choose EMR.

Also its only 2 services per say which if run with voyagers which are 4-5 cars, how much abstraction would that realistically result from a 2tph all day EMR service, would it really not be inconsequential?
And of course for Woodhouse and Worksop its purely beneficial.

 

[CarrotPie]

Then if LNER do happen to loose some leisure travelers to Lumo then perhaps they should consider why their supposedly more premium offering with far more capacity and journeys each day, is struggling to retain its customers.

Then similarly perhaps full-service airlines like BA should ask why their passengers went over to easyjet and Ryanair! Because they're cheaper, that's all. People who want the bells and whistles will still go for LNER, but for those in a pinch, Lumo is a great choice.

 

[telstarbox]

In one sense it will be nice to have competition, and I think serving Meadowhall is great and will be successful (I have suggested that on here before).

But, I assume that by providing a faster journey time, they aren’t going to be looking to compete on price so much, which obviously isn’t as good for many passengers.

As a resident of Sheffield, I do feel that there is a degree of choice already, as many cheap advances are already available on the various operators that serve Doncaster, so I do find this proposal somewhat unnecessary although I can see how a small number of passengers may see in advantage in this service, but will they be enough?

I also have concerns about capacity raised by others already and do question whether extra London trains are what’s really needed for Sheffield. It’s interesting that if this is a spare Hull trains unit, they didn’t use it to do an extra Hull service. It could also be somewhat useful if it could run in service on the positioning moves between Hull and Sheffield, providing extra capacity at peak times on that route.

The press release from First says:

Almost three quarters of trips between London and Sheffield are currently made by car, with a further 9% of trips made by coach

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jan 2024 ==

I wonder how they worked that out and whether they mean Central or Greater London? It used to be possible to drive from Sheffield to say Zone 2 in 3 hours so it's one of the less competitive rail/road markets compared to say Manchester to London.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Commercial departments in transport organisations (together with their consultants) are big users of mobile phone origin and destination data, by post code, suitably anonymised.

It is an absolute gold mine because nearly everyone carries a phone and keeps it switched on whilst making a journey.

 

[moonarrow458]

It used to be possible to drive from Sheffield to say Zone 2 in 3 hours so it's one of the less competitive rail/road markets compared to say Manchester to London.

National express have coaches scheduled to do Finchley Road to Sheffield Meadowhall in 3h10, some of which are priced as low as £6.90, certainly makes for quite a competitive offering for those living in london z2, who dont mind making their own way into Sheffield City Centre from Meadowhall interchange

 

[ChrisC]

Worksop and Woodhouse are red herrings, very few passengers likely - their prime target is the Retford and Sheffield cash.

The population of Worksop is approx 44,000 in comparison to Retford which is approx 23,000. Therefore almost twice the size. I think there could be quite a few passengers from Worksop if fares are no more than changing at Retford or less likely Nottingham or Sheffield. I’m not so convinced that there would be huge numbers of passengers from Woodhouse. Other stations like Kiveton Bridge always seem much busier on the Sheffield-Lincoln trains.

 

[cle]

The population of Worksop is approx 44,000 in comparison to Retford which is approx 23,000. Therefore almost twice the size. I think there could be quite a few passengers from Worksop if fares are no more than changing at Retford or less likely Nottingham or Sheffield. I’m not so convinced that there would be huge numbers of passengers from Woodhouse. Other stations like Kiveton Bridge always seem much busier on the Sheffield-Lincoln trains.

These are often going to be one and the same people. Retford is a railhead for the area - the place itself is less relevant. It’s tiny.

 

[cactustwirly]

These are often going to be one and the same people. Retford is a railhead for the area - the place itself is less relevant. It’s tiny.

Where does Retford serve?
The only place of significance nearby is Worksop.

Not going to fill trains to the extent of Chesterfield or Derby

 

[CarrotPie]

Where does Retford serve?

East Retford, one presumes
It's a town of 23,740, or so I've heard...

 

[Iskra]

The press release from First says:



== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jan 2024 ==

I wonder how they worked that out and whether they mean Central or Greater London? It used to be possible to drive from Sheffield to say Zone 2 in 3 hours so it's one of the less competitive rail/road markets compared to say Manchester to London.

But does that account for folk splitting and going via Doncaster on a separate advance?

 

[gerryuk]

This is adding competition on existing flows where there is competition already. There is a decent amount of London to Sheffield traffic that goes via the ECML now, mostly via Retford but some via Doncaster.

If i want to travel from Sheffield to London there is no competition out of Sheffield, there is only the EMR out of Sheffield. If you and the railways want me to go to Doncaster or Retford and travel to Kings Cross then that is an alternative, it is not competition.

 

[Energy]

If i want to travel from Sheffield to London there is no competition out of Sheffield, there is only the EMR out of Sheffield. If you and the railways want me to go to Doncaster or Retford and travel to Kings Cross then that is an alternative, it is not competition.

The OA application is out of Sheffield. Via Doncaster is an alternative routing which is fairly common.

 

[A S Leib]

If i want to travel from Sheffield to London there is no competition out of Sheffield, there is only the EMR out of Sheffield. If you and the railways want me to go to Doncaster or Retford and travel to Kings Cross then that is an alternative, it is not competition.

Although LNER sets the any permitted fare (and a 'not via Leicester' super off-peak single which is £31 below the 'via Chesterfield' fare).

 

[mike57]

If the Sheffield operation (assuming it goes ahead) models itself on Hull trains, then it should be successful. Hull trains have revitalised a country station (Howden) which now serves as a rail head for the surrounding area, and provide a service over a route that was ignored by the various franchised operators over the years. Business has reached the point where on our last two journeys the service was doubled up to 10 cars using the 'spare' unit, and both bits were full. I think the unreliability of the 180s held HT back, since they have been using 800s they are always busy.

People do like direct services, those with heavy luggage, children, infirm, or travellers who lack confidence, they will all plan their journey around a direct service where possible, so Worksop should generate customers. In terms of London destination St Pancras and King X are together, so if booking advance tickets you could use one route out and the other back.

One interesting thing is the curve out of Retford to join the line to Worksop. Would this be the sharpest curve on an 'Inter City' service, looking on Google Maps seems to be approx 100m radius and close to a full 180 degs U. Will all potential units 'fit' around it.

 

[YorkRailFan]

If the Sheffield operation (assuming it goes ahead) models itself on Hull trains,

That's what the assumption is at the moment, but I wonder if the Hull Trains would get a namechange for that. It could be based on Lumo's model though...

 

[telstarbox]

Commercial departments in transport organisations (together with their consultants) are big users of mobile phone origin and destination data, by post code, suitably anonymised.

It is an absolute gold mine because nearly everyone carries a phone and keeps it switched on whilst making a journey.

So based on First's claims, the approximate market is 1.4 million journeys per year:

Rail implied to be 16%. The recent ORR data shows Sheffield to St Pancras (29k), Kings Cross (188k), Euston (via Tamworth?) (14k) = total 230k or 4400 seats sold per week.

Coach implied to be 9% so 130k or 2500 seats sold per week - 50 fullish coaches per week which sounds about right.

Cars implied to be 75% so 1 million per year or 2739 per day which is sensible. For context the M1 around Leicester carries ~55000 cars per day.

 

[Killingworth]

So based on First's claims, the approximate market is 1.4 million journeys per year:

Rail implied to be 16%. The recent ORR data shows Sheffield to St Pancras (29k), Kings Cross (188k), Euston (via Tamworth?) (14k) = total 230k or 4400 seats sold per week.

Coach implied to be 9% so 130k or 2500 seats sold per week - 50 fullish coaches per week which sounds about right.

Cars implied to be 75% so 1 million per year or 2739 per day which is sensible. For context the M1 around Leicester carries ~55000 cars per day.

That Sheffield ORR data is badly flawed, severely understating the numbers to St Pancras. It shows nearby Dore & Totley to Kings Cross as 830 and St Pancras doesn't appear at all whilst Dronfield shows a more realistic 1055 to St Pancras only. All London bound passengers from both will normally have changed at Sheffield or Chesterfield to EMR. Many of us living to the south and west side of Sheffield will probably drive to Chesterfield anyway. (I'd consider driving to Doncaster if going north.)

In fact all this data is probably flawed. Getting to Sheffield station is a major hassle, same would be getting from Kings Cross/St Pancras to many London destinations outside the central area. I might well drive from Sheffield to an outer London destination. A difference in rail timings of 15 minutes or so to the centre wouldn't make much difference. Comfort and reliability might, especially if the price was better. EMR are going to be offering new bi-mode units very soon (we hope) so they should be more comfortable (in theory) than at present and offer more frequent services. I'd always try to get the train when going anywhere in Central London.

 

[telstarbox]

I agree that the split between the London Terminals but the overall rail numbers seem in the right ballpark. That would be ~88 Meridian carriages both ways per week for Sheffield passengers, which sounds right given that the EMT services also pick up at Derby and Leicester etc.

 

[Helvellyn]

If i want to travel from Sheffield to London there is no competition out of Sheffield, there is only the EMR out of Sheffield. If you and the railways want me to go to Doncaster or Retford and travel to Kings Cross then that is an alternative, it is not competition.

It is competion just indirect, in the same way you can fly on airlines via their hubs or (if available) take non-stop flights.

What this would add is direct competiton that doesn't require a change of train, but unless those two specific times work for you the greater competitive choice will remain the indirect routings with a change at Doncaster or Retford.

 

[duffield]

That Sheffield ORR data is badly flawed, severely understating the numbers to St Pancras. It shows nearby Dore & Totley to Kings Cross as 830 and St Pancras doesn't appear at all whilst Dronfield shows a more realistic 1055 to St Pancras only. All London bound passengers from both will normally have changed at Sheffield or Chesterfield to EMR. Many of us living to the south and west side of Sheffield will probably drive to Chesterfield anyway. (I'd consider driving to Doncaster if going north.)

In fact all this data is probably flawed. Getting to Sheffield station is a major hassle, same would be getting from Kings Cross/St Pancras to many London destinations outside the central area. I might well drive from Sheffield to an outer London destination. A difference in rail timings of 15 minutes or so to the centre wouldn't make much difference. Comfort and reliability might, especially if the price was better. EMR are going to be offering new bi-mode units very soon (we hope) so they should be more comfortable (in theory) than at present and offer more frequent services. I'd always try to get the train when going anywhere in Central London.

More frequent services? I don't think that's on the table. Given the number of new trains ordered, and the path availability at the London end, surely Nottingham and Sheffield will keep their current 2tph each to St. Pancras when the new class 810's are rolled out?