Hello all - a little bit late but a review of the year just gone and some wayward predictions for the year to come:
The Review of 2018
It was another eventful year across First's ops in the South West and Wales
First Kernow received more new fleet...a number of e400s were already expected but there were thoughts of a few e200s as well. In the event, there was much more than that with a healthy number of short e200s arriving to provide much needed quality on routes bumping along with Caetano Darts. The biggest surprise being that those vehicles, excellent condition and all, were then sent to Glasgow! As well as lots of new vehicles, FK also received a load of Trident 2s, all ex London but via Norwich and/or Dorset. These allowed the culling of older Tridents and B7TLs (with hired aged fleet deputising for expired examples whilst the new fleet was due) with various Solos and Darts sent to Somerset. At the end of the year, it appeared that the ex Essex coaches would finally be resuscitated, being refurbished to help replace the now elderly Irizars. A slightly surprising move was the rebranding of the Lizard services with a new livery to boot. The main downside was the continued unreliability of the Mousehole Solo fleet.
Buses of Somerset had a quiet year. There were some upsides as South West Coaches surrendered their Sturminster Newton to Yeovil service, and the immediate cessation of Nippy Bus brought a short lived return to Coker and Martock, plus some ex Crosville schools services. However, for every bit of new work, it seemed something else was trimmed to accommodate it. The fleet changes were limited too.... elderly Solos at Yeovil replaced by some a bit newer, the last remaining Eclipses replaced by Kernow Solars and some more modern ex dealer e200s, and a few odd Darts sent up from Kernow. However, the increase in buses being sent in and left in First colours (rather than BoS) seemed to point to an operation in torpor, possibly diverted more by the riches of Somerset Passenger Solutions?
First Cymru had a very quiet first half of the year, with limited service and fleet developments. Most changes were service rationalisations and allowed some older Darts to be sacrificed, helped by receiving a few ex Weymouth Eclipses. Only when Andrew Sherrington was elevated from First Bath did we begin to see some more intriguing changes. The X10 received refurbished Volvo coaches to replace ageing Irizars. However, it was the introduction of a new livery and local identities that saw some of the FWoE experience being employed, with United Welsh and Swansea & The Bay being new names and Volvo Eclipses being suitably refreshed.
First Hampshire and Dorset had an expected quiet year though in Southampton, there were the biggest changes. The ill fated Brock College contract was surrendered, and they pulled out of various schools contracts as well as trimming back other routes whilst Bluestar were emboldened to increase competition in the city. Meanwhile, Pompey and Hoeford carried on much as before with just a few bits of nipping and tucking. Weymouth, scarred by the issues of the previous Summer, just hunkered down though they did have the benefit of receiving the former Green Line B9TLs, allowing the Tridents to be largely moved on.
First West of England had a very busy year. metrobus was delayed and delayed but eventually, the m2 was chosen and then unchosen as there were clearance issues with the guided busway. The m3 was instead the first route that began, seeing off the X48. More interestingly was the announcement that the m1 was to be operated by CT Plus for First - now due for the 6 Jan 2019. The other big news was the departure of Crosville and Wessex from the local scene. This increased the First PVR and driver complement as they selectively took on routes in Weston, Bath and Bristol, with other routes passing to Stagecoach and CT Plus in the main. That necessitated the retention of fleet due to move on to other opcos and the oldest deckers even being joined by more displaced from Kernow. However, this was unable to cope with massively increased student requirements in Bath (aided by a driver shortage) where First were massively embarrassed. This was assisted by sending down bendis from Aberdeen and has since has been followed selected reductions and retrenchments across the city. Major service developments were the Airport Flyer service getting new deckers, allowing the Eclipses to be cascaded to the relaunched and enhanced Discover Wiltshire services. Similarly, Badgerline reappeared for the Weston local services. The services to Thornbury were enhanced using some of the metrobus infrastructure, being relaunched with the Yate routes as South Glos Lynx. Meanwhile, Wells routes continued to grow with the Bath service now requiring deckers in the form of refurbed B9s. Bath gained extra work from Wessex's demise so the new Solos were additional rather than the envisaged replacements for the 2005 examples.
The Predictions made for 2018....
First Kernow will get their new vehicles and they'll be concentrated on the Newquay to Truro corridor (e400). e200 may arrive for the A17 although perhaps we'll see something shorter for the Fowey service? Again, can't see much in service development and fleet replacement will be modest in cascades - some of the Darts/Solos on regular service are getting on now. Hopefully, that will see the end of the Mk1 Tridents and most of the W reg B7TLs.
The delayed e400s were, of course, expected and were indeed concentrated onto the Newquay to Truro routes but also on the linked Newquay to St Austell and the Bodmin to Truro routes. e200s weren't confirmed at that point and when they did come, were much more numerous than anticipated (certainly more than modest) so really did begin weeding out the Solos and Darts. We did see shorter e200s for the Fowey service, so that was right, just that we also had them for North Cornwall and many other locations though not for the A17 (which will get Solos soon). However, we did see the Mk1 Tridents go and the W reg B7TLs (though some were retained for DTVs). There wasn't much in terms of service development, the only real development being the Lizard routes being rebranded.
BoS - don't see much happening at all other than continued retraction - wait for the Wellington service to be reduced next. The announced reductions will see more B7RLEs head to other OpCos as their thirsty nature and increasing maintenance costs prove too much for frugal Somersetshire. I predicted it last year but I'd expect the Yeovil Solos to be culled though not certain what with - short e200s ex Taunton?
Fairly much on the money. Yes, some expansion at the expense of NippyBus but it was a case of getting more out of fewer vehicles. The Wellington service did escape any cuts though. The B7RLEs had already begun to disappear to other opcos and so it wasn't a great stretch to see the others head north, mainly to West Yorkshire, with their replacements (some fairly modern e200s) being a rare highlight in the year. The Yeovil Solos were indeed culled but using newer Solos sent from in elsewhere.
First Cymru - having been largely immune from First Group pressures, I fear more cost cutting especially to those services outside Swansea, perhaps in the Llynfi and Neath Valleys especially. No new vehicles unless it's for Unibus or the Cardiff service.
Well, not far wrong on those predictions. No new buses did arrive, with the Cardiff express receiving some refurbed coaches. And yes, there were a few changes and the Neath Valley did get some trimming!
First Hampshire and Dorset - no new vehicles other than the 3 for Eclipse, and some losses of newer fleet to enable other OpCos to be modernised so see where some Solo SRs and Streetlites end up. They may even make a decision about the B7TLs that were laid up a year ago! The X51/X53 will be restored but expect a much shorter summer season in Weymouth as everything is built around schools/Brock College.
Clearly, the Brock College bit was wrong as it was surrendered and the X51/X53 wasn't uplifted for the summer. However, the summer season was more restricted than previously as I suggested. The absence of new vehicles was pretty obvious to be fair. They did lose some fleet to other OpCos (the cuts had already been announced) but they were some older B7RLEs rather than Streetlites as I suspected.
First West of England - again, so dependant on Metrobus. Expect my predicted chops to the 90 and X48 etc. Wouldn't be surprised to see the 35 lost and even more cuts to non core services like the 36 or 82. Bristol will see the first tranche of Biobuses in late 2018, allowing some major reductions in B7TLs, being sent across the group to replace older examples elsewhere.
No changes now to Wells services (what can they realistically do, now the 175 has gone) and Weston looks like it may be more stable. Expect Bath to have service revisions with reductions on the 3 and 4, possibly allied to larger vehicles? May also be the last year of bendis with deckers preferred.
Well Metrobus did finally appear and did remove the X48, though that was again fairly obvious. The m1 didn't appear and even now it has been announced, the 90 will remain relatively unscathed. My hunch about the 36 being cut has turned out to be the case, though the 35 has survived and the 82 has actually improved! As for Bath, well the 3 has had some changes - more a case of selective reductions at Elmhurst and Bathford whilst the main body of the service is retained. The cascades from Bristol clearly couldn't take place given the increased post Wessex PVR, and we also saw MORE bendis not FEWER.
So as ever, a goodly mix of the wrong and right!! So what about 2019......?
First Kernow is already confirmed in receiving new Optare Solos for the A17. However, I will suggest that some will be placed onto the M6 if only to restore some reliability to that route.
BoS will continue to drift aimlessly. The Taunton P&R (saved once already) will be binned as the money runs out and I still reckon the Wellington service may be cut to 20 min frequency (and the Tiverton extension will also go). The Solars will be moved on as more e200s are found from across the empire.
First Cymru will roll out more new identities though with the same base livery. However, think that there will be other specific route brandings and relaunches, such as Cymru Clipper. I think they may get some modern cascades such as Streetlites from WoE (not just being exchanged with Welsh e200s) and perhaps some new fleet for Swansea (e200mmc).
First Hampshire and Dorset is already confirmed to receive new fleet for the Portsmouth Star fleet in line with age stipulations. The Star Streetlites will head to Hoeford to enable the Omnicities to head en masse to Essex, joining their brethren there. Southampton will continue to muddle along, battling the Bluestar bid for supremacy by hunkering down. As for Hoeford and Wessex, I suspect that there will be some bigger cuts to locals, releasing Solos for reallocation elsewhere.
First West of England - well, who knows? I still think the 90 will be reduced in frequency. I still think the 35 will be relinquished and the new 96 will decline before withdrawal in 2019/20. I also think the 42 will be withdrawn in Bath, with the 4 doing the honours instead. Balancing things up, I think Abus may actually decide to finally close up, with the X8 and 349 passing back to First, the latter being rebranded. There will be some major fleet changes this year.... The CNG e400s will begin to arrive so B9s can be reallocated across the city. This will allow the culling of the W reg B7TLs eventually! Some Streetdecks will be released to other opcos (Leicester, Norwich?). I also think there will be some despatch of 66723, 66937 and other barbie Eclipses to other opcos and the last Darts will also go. I also think that there will be more e200s to Bath sourced from across the empire to allow the release of 63*** Streetlites to other opcos, with the shorter Streetlites also continuing to be moved on.
As always, these are just guesses. Whatever happens, who can say and I have no actual knowledge or insight (as we all know
) so let's see what happens. Whatever does happen, I hope you all have a wonderful new year and a hale and healthy 2019 and, as the late Dave Allen used to say, may your god go with you!
