First Group: General Discussion

[richw]

Bad move selling off First Student & Transit in their entirely, most of the money from the sale proceeds will have to be returned to shareholders.

Still no timeline for the sale of Greyhound & a u-turn on First UK bus sales again.

The American and U.K. business don’t fit together. The change of direction was made once, and that was pretty much unofficially mentioned straight after david Martin took over as chairman . This just confirms it officially.

 

[Volvodart]

Bad move selling off First Student & Transit in their entirely, most of the money from the sale proceeds will have to be returned to shareholders.

Still no timeline for the sale of Greyhound & a u-turn on First UK bus sales again.

They had not the money to do what needs to be done with the US businesses, so they would have had to sell them sometime to get the debts down. There was nothing else to do to get out of it. They said that they were going to use some of the rights issue money to buy up some school bus companies to improve the profit margin. As far as I am aware, this did not happen on any scale at that time.

Greyhound seems to have speeded up the selling off of bus stations etc., new ones being put on the market since they said they were selling Greyhound.

 

[overthewater]

Not one bit surprised. First bus continules to pull rabbits out of its hat.


I wonder.. If first groups debt were reduced and eveything become stable would it mege with nat express?

 

[winston270twm]

The American and U.K. business don’t fit together. The change of direction was made once, and that was pretty much unofficially mentioned straight after david Martin took over as chairman . This just confirms it officially.

US & UK businesses only don't fit together at First Group.

At NX Group, UK, US, Spain, Morocco, Germany, Switzerland & Bahrain business all manage to fit together successfully.

They had not the money to do what needs to be done with the US businesses, so they would have had to sell them sometime to get the debts down. There was nothing else to do to get out of it. They said that they were going to use some of the rights issue money to buy up some school bus companies to improve the profit margin. As far as I am aware, this did not happen on any scale at that time.

Greyhound seems to have speeded up the selling off of bus stations etc., new ones being put on the market since they said they were selling Greyhound.

I personally think they should have separated First US business from UK & partially floated that business on the NYSE via an IPO, it would both raise funds needed, retain majority ownership & future access to First US profits going forward. Very little they've said since the rights issue has happened with numerous U-turns.

Now First Group will be fully focused on the UK as per Stagecoach Group, only First Group aren't very good in the UK except for a few UK Bus subsidiaries. UK rail is not worth the risk of staying involved with.

Not one bit surprised. First bus continules to pull rabbits out of its hat.

I wonder.. If first groups debt were reduced and eveything become stable would it mege with nat express?

I think it would be a case of whether NX would want to entertain merging with First Group UK. They certainly wouldn't want to get back involved with UK rail.

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[Goldfish62]

US & UK businesses only don't fit together at First Group.

At NX Group, UK, US, Spain, Morocco, Germany, Switzerland & Bahrain business all manage to fit together successfully.

I personally think they should have separated First US business from UK & partially floated that business on the NYSE via an IPO, it would both raise funds needed, retain majority ownership & future access to First US profits going forward. Very little they've said since the rights issue has happened with numerous U-turns.

Now First Group will be fully focused on the UK as per Stagecoach Group, only First Group aren't very good in the UK except for a few UK Bus subsidiaries. UK rail is not worth the risk of staying involved with.



I think it would be a case of whether NX would want to entertain merging with First Group UK. They certainly wouldn't want to get back involved with UK rail.

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They're tied into rail through West Coast for a long time yet.

 

[winston270twm]

They're tied into rail through West Coast for a long time yet.

I'm aware, but with the way things are going in the Global Economy, Global Stock markets & Coronavirus etc, lets hope FGP haven't overbid / too optimistic as per NX & ECML for passenger growth on the WCML. They could yet come a cropper....

 

[Volvodart]

US & UK businesses only don't fit together at First Group.

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Plus Stagecoach!

 

[Volvodart]

I personally think they should have separated First US business from UK & partially floated that business on the NYSE via an IPO, it would both raise funds needed, retain majority ownership & future access to First US profits going forward. Very little they've said since the rights issue has happened with numerous U-turns.

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It seems fairly likely that US investors would not be too keen to invest if Firstgroup were to retain control.

 

[winston270twm]

Plus Stagecoach!

Stagecoach never had the market share/scale in the US that First Group have, therefore, not really like for like. Stagecoach have had varying successes over the years with expanding abroad through acquisitions.

Arriva Group don't have any issues operating within multiple Countries including UK, Europe & Eastern European. The only reason they're struggling is due to their parent companies debt & cash needs.

Or Go-Ahead Group: UK, Ireland, Germany, Singapore etc

It seems fairly likely that US investors would not be too keen to invest if Firstgroup were to retain control.

We'll never know for sure - that said, I think First Group should all be broken up & sold off in it's entirely and put in the transport history books. I can't see FGP getting to grips with UK Bus & rail even with reduced debt.​

 

[freetoview33]

Not one bit surprised. First bus continules to pull rabbits out of its hat.


I wonder.. If first groups debt were reduced and eveything become stable would it mege with nat express?

I think something along the lines of a merger with Arriva UK would be more likely.

 

[winston270twm]

I think something along the lines of a merger with Arriva UK would be more likely.

1. Arriva Group was only for sale as an entire Group
2. They've never get it past the Dft due to competition concerns / controlling too much of the UK bus market, they'd have a combined fleet of circa 12,000 buses.

 

[Volvodart]

We'll never know for sure .​

Would you put your money into anything associated with Firstgroup? This was one of the matters that Coast Capital raised.

 

[winston270twm]

Would you put your money into anything associated with Firstgroup? This was one of the matters that Coast Capital raised.

I wouldn't, but I know the history since 2013 & before. If the US business was hived off from the UK First Group businesses via an IPO I can't see why it wouldn't be attractive, there would only be Greyhound to deal with.

I'm currently accumulating Stagecoach shares as a recovery play on value/income grounds.

 

[Volvodart]

Firstgroup has not done anything much with the US businesses since they acquired them. They have had plenty of time. It needs to be a clean break.

 

[winston270twm]

Firstgroup has not done anything much with the US businesses since they acquired them. They have had plenty of time. It needs to be a clean break.

Fair point, IIRC First Student is quite a bit smaller than when acquired from Laidlaw in 2007, didn't they run 60,000+ school buses when acquired?

The stock market doesn't appear overly excited at the prospect of a US business sale FGP +2.4% @ 103.7p

 

[cnjb8]

US & UK businesses only don't fit together at First Group.

At NX Group, UK, US, Spain, Morocco, Germany, Switzerland & Bahrain business all manage to fit together successfully.

I personally think they should have separated First US business from UK & partially floated that business on the NYSE via an IPO, it would both raise funds needed, retain majority ownership & future access to First US profits going forward. Very little they've said since the rights issue has happened with numerous U-turns.

Now First Group will be fully focused on the UK as per Stagecoach Group, only First Group aren't very good in the UK except for a few UK Bus subsidiaries. UK rail is not worth the risk of staying involved with.



I think it would be a case of whether NX would want to entertain merging with First Group UK. They certainly wouldn't want to get back involved with UK rail.

​

First are trying to improve. All new buses have little First branding while the only proper First operation: South Yorkshire is loss making.

 

[winston270twm]

First are trying to improve. All new buses have little First branding while the only proper First operation: South Yorkshire is loss making.

But we're now in 2020, it was 2013 when they conducted the rights issue to help finance their turnaround plan. It hasn't come very far in 7 years.

 

[richw]

But we're now in 2020, it was 2013 when they conducted the rights issue to help finance their turnaround plan. It hasn't come very far in 7 years.

but more seems to have happened in the last 18 months towards this. New ceo and chairman in that time seem to have helped

 

[Robertj21a]

First are trying to improve. All new buses have little First branding while the only proper First operation: South Yorkshire is loss making.

Can you clarify your point here. Are you saying that only FSY is making losses ?

 

[winston270twm]

but more seems to have happened in the last 18 months towards this. New ceo and chairman in that time seem to have helped

Yes I agree, more seems to have happened as regards re-brands / re-launching routes during that timeframe in certain areas such as Bristol, Kernow, Glasgow, Leeds etc, but other than the subsidiaries affected by Clean Air Zone rules / those that were awarded Government Funding etc, very few of the others are likely to see any new Euro 6 fleet investment anytime soon.

 

[NorthernSpirit]

First are trying to improve. All new buses have little First branding while the only proper First operation: South Yorkshire is loss making.

I've suggested to First West Yorkshire to adopt the Discover branding used by First West of England and introduce it on services X84 and X85 as it serves Leeds, Headingley, Golden Acre Park, Otley, Ilkley and Skipton. It would also help sell the route more on these key services and by working with the Visit Leeds, Visit Bradford and Visit Skipton tourist boards, it'd also advertise little bits of history in the timetable e.g. Otley with the Black Bull and its connections to Cromwell, Ilkley with its remains of its roman history and Skipton with its Castle.

The better the advertising is for the service, the more likely customers are going to use it - which in turn could well entice people out of their cars and on to the buses, meaning the services can be improved with the cash that's coming in. Its all about the marketing and how its performed which is the main money magnet.

 

[cnjb8]

Can you clarify your point here. Are you saying that only FSY is making losses ?

Did you see me use the word only?
I used the word try to suggest that by introducing new brands and distancing itself from First, they are attempting some sort of a turnaround

 

[Robertj21a]

Did you see me use the word only?
I used the word try to suggest that by introducing new brands and distancing itself from First, they are attempting some sort of a turnaround

No, you didn't, hence me trying to understand what you were trying to say. Presumably it's me but it still doesn't make sense.
Why 'proper' ?

 

[cnjb8]

No, you didn't, hence me trying to understand what you were trying to say. Presumably it's me but it still doesn't make sense.
Why 'proper' ?

As in, every single bus still in First livery or route branding in the First style.

 

[Volvodart]

but more seems to have happened in the last 18 months towards this. New ceo and chairman in that time seem to have helped

I think the new Chairman has his own ideas about what to do at First Bus. He admitted at the investor/analyst conference call that First Bus had been underperforming for years. Giles must be on the way out now, as he is over 65 and the sale is not happening, which I suspect he was being kept on for.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I've suggested to First West Yorkshire to adopt the Discover branding used by First West of England and introduce it on services X84 and X85

Think the emphasis is more on bespoke liveries rather than re-using them on multiple services across multiple OpCos as had been the case (as per the Blue and Gold used on the X84 and employed in various other locations

No, you didn't, hence me trying to understand what you were trying to say. Presumably it's me but it still doesn't make sense.
Why 'proper' ?

Think the poster was suggesting that FSY is the only OpCo that still follows the corporate branding path. That said, Essex is still quite "on message".

The corporate ties were loosened with the template that was then used with multiple schemes (in different colours) across the UK from Badgerline and Bath City in West of England, the new Cymru liveries (the red being replicated in Ipswich), and across the Midlands such as Nimrod. South West always ploughed their own furrow anyway, and the newest liveries now have no corporate influence save for a very discreet First fleetname.

I'm not familiar with Essex but South Yorkshire is a depressing operation. You only have to look at the adjacent Stagecoach operation to see a stark comparison.

Giles must be on the way out now, as he is over 65

Same age as David Martin, the CEO

But we're now in 2020, it was 2013 when they conducted the rights issue to help finance their turnaround plan. It hasn't come very far in 7 years.

Yes I agree, more seems to have happened as regards re-brands / re-launching routes during that timeframe in certain areas such as Bristol, Kernow, Glasgow, Leeds etc, but other than the subsidiaries affected by Clean Air Zone rules / those that were awarded Government Funding etc, very few of the others are likely to see any new Euro 6 fleet investment anytime soon.

The rights issue was sadly just to get them out of the hole they'd got into. When you recall the state of the fleets in 2013 and the impending PSVAR issue, they had to spend a lot to get the non compliant stuff replaced. We all know that ToT really should've grasped the nettle and divested Greyhound much sooner, and the desperation to retain TPE has been at a price. However, and despite mistakes in UK Bus, they have really done some good stuff behind the scenes in terms of contactless and m-ticketing, and all sorts of stuff in areas such as driver management.

I'd be interested to see the age profile of the First fleet once the new fleet has been delivered in Bristol, Hampshire, Norfolk and the resulting cascades have been completed. They are on the cusp of killing off the last B7Ls (still a few in Yorkshire) and B10BLEs and whilst there are some places with 2003 Darts, Stagecoach also have more than a few of those. It'll be interesting to see how many 2002/3 deckers will still be left when it's all done but that's a slightly bigger ask.

However, you're right to highlight that the places with LEZs/CAZs are getting the vast majority of the available money, though the new deckers for Essex and Norfolk are welcome investment in the provinces. It is still the case that the provinces (places like Worcester) are still not receiving the investment they should get, instead relying on refurbs of very middle aged fleet. Even Leicester (with its generally decent financial performance) is still relying on a number of mid life retrofits to meet that CAZ rather than new vehicle investment.

 

[oldman]

Same age as David Martin, the CEO

The non-executive chairman, actually. He does seem to have been quite busy for such an old man , reversing his predecessor's strategy.

 

[90sWereBetter]

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Now First Group will be fully focused on the UK as per Stagecoach Group, only First Group aren't very good in the UK except for a few UK Bus subsidiaries.​

You're letting your anti-First bias cloud your perceptions here. Apart from FSY, the remnants of Manchester and maybe Essex (but even they are turning the corner these last few months), UK Bus seems to be in a much better place than a few years ago, dare I say it, thriving in some areas.

Regardless, this is really good news, hopefully this will provide the stability that the UK opcos have been crying out for the last couple of years ​

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[winston270twm]

You're letting your anti-First bias cloud your perceptions here. Apart from FSY, the remnants of Manchester and maybe Essex (but even they are turning the corner these last few months), UK Bus seems to be in a much better place than a few years ago, dare I say it, thriving in some areas.

Regardless, this is really good news, hopefully this will provide the stability that the UK opcos have been crying out for the last couple of years​

There's no anti-First bias here, we've all witnessed years of excuses & disappointments first hand. If you read my latter comments, I've already acknowledged some areas of UK Bus have shown encouraging signs, I wouldn't class them as thriving yet though, there's a hell of a long way to go to reach double digit profit margins.

That said, the "First" name doesn't have a very good reputation / perception, this will take a long time to repair and is probably why it is less prominent on newer liveries / route re-launches.

Additionally, I wouldn't class my local First subsidiary 'Worcester' as thriving, it's currently being robbed of it's newest buses to make Leicester LEZ compliant, these are being replaced by 07/08 plate Mercedes Citaro's from Slough via refurb. It's all seen it's main core route in to Birmingham cut back to save Pvr imposed by Group.

 

[Robertj21a]

There's no anti-First bias here, we've all witnessed years of excuses & disappointments first hand. If you read my latter comments, I've already acknowledged some areas of UK Bus have shown encouraging signs, I wouldn't class them as thriving yet though, there's a hell of a long way to go to reach double digit profit margins.

That said, the "First" name doesn't have a very good reputation / perception, this will take a long time to repair and is probably why it is less prominent on newer liveries / route re-launches.

Additionally, I wouldn't class my local First subsidiary 'Worcester' as thriving, it's currently being robbed of it's newest buses to make Leicester LEZ compliant, these are being replaced by 07/08 plate Mercedes Citaro's from Slough via refurb. It's all seen it's main core route in to Birmingham cut back to save Pvr imposed by Group.

Latest 2 Streetlites to leave Worcester for Leicester are 63364/63366. As the Slough Citaros won't be available for some time (after refurb etc) I assume that these can only be released due to pvr cuts ?