First Group: General Discussion

[Goldfish62]

You're letting your anti-First bias cloud your perceptions here. Apart from FSY, the remnants of Manchester and maybe Essex (but even they are turning the corner these last few months), UK Bus seems to be in a much better place than a few years ago, dare I say it, thriving in some areas.

Regardless, this is really good news, hopefully this will provide the stability that the UK opcos have been crying out for the last couple of years.
​

Well indeed. You only have to compare the financial performance of First South West with Stagecoach Devon (the former is making a healthy profit, the latter a small loss).

 

[DragonEast]

You're letting your anti-First bias cloud your perceptions here. Apart from FSY, the remnants of Manchester and maybe Essex (but even they are turning the corner these last few months), UK Bus seems to be in a much better place than a few years ago, dare I say it, thriving in some areas.

Regardless, this is really good news, hopefully this will provide the stability that the UK opcos have been crying out for the last couple of years ​

​

Hmm. Over the last decade the Essex OpCo has had more "turning the corners" than I've had hot dinners. Each time, they've hit the brick wall. Congestion, exacerbated by the lack of resources. What's changed?

As everyone has pointed out First have done some good marketing (and a few disasters too). But that's not much use to an OpCo struggling to keep its head above water (whatever the state of the balance sheet). Whenever I speak to passengers they say their overriding priority is a service they can rely on. Repaints and refurbs are secondary concerns, even if they appear on the radar.

Roger French, reviewing AirLink, hit the nail on the head. It's lovely, but he wouldn't rely on it to catch his flight. What's the point?

Essex share management with Eastern Counties. It makes no difference. So it's not management.

Congestion is the bane of the Home Counties, and Stagecoach, Arriva and Go-Ahead (and a lot of smaller bretheren ) struggle too. It has taken a fair few of them under, so it is a huge credit to First Essex staff and local management that they manage as well as they do. So why do the others cope better? What's the difference? A supportive Head Office that they can rely on, so they can take risks. Reduce their exposure, because they know that when it matters, their bosses will deliver the goods to make sure they are competitive. First in Essex have no such assurance. They can't compete so their only option is to try and keep any competition out. That takes resources that they don't have. A high price and poor quality service is the result and the cycle of deprivation continues.

The difference becomes ever more apparent. Belatedly Essex County are cutting subsidies. When that happened in neighbouring counties commercial services took up the slack. No prospect with First Essex. They have no slack. So as far as attracting custom is concerned, no chance. No bus to rely on, whether timetabled or not.

We know that First can succeed with enough government and Council support. So could anyone else.

But every Corporate failure has its successes. It hasn't always saved them. Perhaps like every child, it's how we fare when we have to stand on our own two feet that matters? At least, that is why I wonder how good First actually are at running UKBus.

Very cynical but perhaps what has changed is that First are betting on the Boris bonus (well I suppose at least it's a better prospect than Trump's bonus). First do well, apparently, in Cornwall and Norfolk. Is it enough?

 

[buslad1988]

Interesting too that whilst First Eastern Counties seem to be making a modest profit Go-Ahead owned local rival KonectBus are reporting losses of £500k

 

[Goldfish62]

Interesting too that whilst First Eastern Counties seem to be making a modest profit Go-Ahead owned local rival KonectBus are reporting losses of £500k

The East Anglian operations of GoAhead seem to be decidedly lacklustre.

 

[winston270twm]

Latest 2 Streetlites to leave Worcester for Leicester are 63364/63366. As the Slough Citaros won't be available for some time (after refurb etc) I assume that these can only be released due to pvr cuts ?

Must have been freed up due to the 144 Pvr cuts.

Worcester was once one of the more 'flourishing' First subsidiaries, it's now gone the other way, total fleet size is lower than it's been for a good while.

The East Anglian operations of GoAhead seem to be decidedly lacklustre.

Yes, they are, but the majority of all other Go-Ahead subsidiaries make above average margins, that's the difference. First have far more poorly performing subsidiaries, even the better ones are still some way off above industry margins.

The 'First' name is tarnished. Maybe time to re-brand & re-name the group to coincide with a US sell off & finally draw a line under it all.

Well indeed. You only have to compare the financial performance of First South West with Stagecoach Devon (the former is making a healthy profit, the latter a small loss).

FSW & Stagecoach Devon is not like for like.

Interesting too that whilst First Eastern Counties seem to be making a modest profit Go-Ahead owned local rival KonectBus are reporting losses of £500k

The bulk of First Eastern Counties is centred around Norwich, a major City operation in an urban area with higher frequencies, FEC have the lions share of the market etc.

Hmm. Over the last decade the Essex OpCo has had more "turning the corners" than I've had hot dinners. Each time, they've hit the brick wall. Congestion, exacerbated by the lack of resources. What's changed?

As everyone has pointed out First have done some good marketing (and a few disasters too). But that's not much use to an OpCo struggling to keep its head above water (whatever the state of the balance sheet). Whenever I speak to passengers they say their overriding priority is a service they can rely on. Repaints and refurbs are secondary concerns, even if they appear on the radar.

Roger French, reviewing AirLink, hit the nail on the head. It's lovely, but he wouldn't rely on it to catch his flight. What's the point?

Essex share management with Eastern Counties. It makes no difference. So it's not management.

Congestion is the bane of the Home Counties, and Stagecoach, Arriva and Go-Ahead (and a lot of smaller bretheren ) struggle too. It has taken a fair few of them under, so it is a huge credit to First Essex staff and local management that they manage as well as they do. So why do the others cope better? What's the difference? A supportive Head Office that they can rely on, so they can take risks. Reduce their exposure, because they know that when it matters, their bosses will deliver the goods to make sure they are competitive. First in Essex have no such assurance. They can't compete so their only option is to try and keep any competition out. That takes resources that they don't have. A high price and poor quality service is the result and the cycle of deprivation continues.

The difference becomes ever more apparent. Belatedly Essex County are cutting subsidies. When that happened in neighbouring counties commercial services took up the slack. No prospect with First Essex. They have no slack. So as far as attracting custom is concerned, no chance. No bus to rely on, whether timetabled or not.

We know that First can succeed with enough government and Council support. So could anyone else.

But every Corporate failure has its successes. It hasn't always saved them. Perhaps like every child, it's how we fare when we have to stand on our own two feet that matters? At least, that is why I wonder how good First actually are at running UKBus.

Very cynical but perhaps what has changed is that First are betting on the Boris bonus (well I suppose at least it's a better prospect than Trump's bonus). First do well, apparently, in Cornwall and Norfolk. Is it enough?

You only have to look at how Stephensons & Ensign Bus have developed their Essex networks, to see that the Essex Bus market isn't as bad as First portray with constant cuts & re-trenching.​

 

[Whiteway215]

Must have been freed up due to the 144 Pvr cuts.

Worcester was once one of the more 'flourishing' First subsidiaries, it's now gone the other way, total fleet size is lower than it's been for a good while.

Yes, they are, but the majority of all other Go-Ahead subsidiaries make above average margins, that's the difference. First have far more poorly performing subsidiaries, even the better ones are still some way off above industry margins.

The 'First' name is tarnished. Maybe time to re-brand & re-name the group to coincide with a US sell off & finally draw a line under it all.



FSW includes a major urban operation in Bristol, Stagecoach Devon is not like for like with FSW.



The bulk of First Eastern Counties is centred around Norwich, a major City operation in an urban area with higher frequencies, FEC have the loins share of the market etc.



You only have to look at how Stephensons & Ensign Bus have developed their Essex networks, to see that the Essex Bus market isn't as bad as First portray with constant cuts & re-trenching.​

FSW is Cornwall (Kernow) and Buses of Somerset. Bristol etc is First West of England.

 

[Dai Corner]

FSW includes a major urban operation in Bristol, Stagecoach Devon is not like for like with FSW.

I thought FSW was Cornwall and Somerset and the separate Bristol area operation was First West of England?

 

[richw]

I thought FSW was Cornwall and Somerset and the separate Bristol area operation was First West of England?

you’re correct. @winston270twm is incorrect in his post saying it covers Bristol.

dare I say it, thriving in some areas.

In Cornwall passenger numbers on the commercial network are up between 15-20% year on year! National average across the bus industry is -1.5%

 

[winston270twm]

you’re correct. @winston270twm is incorrect in his post saying it covers Bristol.

In Cornwall passenger numbers on the commercial network are up between 15-20% year on year! National average across the bus industry is -1.5%

Yes, sorry getting confuzzled.

Kernow is an isolated example within First UK bus, it has had an enthusiastic County Council working with it with First UK bus also throwing plenty of new fleet investment at Kernow, sadly this doesn't extend to most other subsidaires.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Yes, sorry getting confuzzled.

Kernow is an isolated example within First UK bus, it has had an enthusiastic County Council working with it with First UK bus also throwing plenty of new fleet investment at Kernow, sadly this doesn't extend to most other subsidaires.

I'm sure other counties would be enthusiastic if they had £50m to play with!

 

[winston270twm]

I'm sure other counties would be enthusiastic if they had £50m to play with!

Exactly! Like I said, it's not a true picture / like for like comparison with elsewhere.

I'm assuming the FSW 15-20% passenger growth, doesn't extend to include Taunton, Bridgwater & Yeovil - those areas that haven't seen the same treatment as Cornwall routes & depots.

 

[richw]

Exactly! Like I said, it's not a true picture / like for like comparison with elsewhere.

I'm assuming the FSW 15-20% passenger growth, doesn't extend to include Taunton, Bridgwater & Yeovil - those areas that haven't seen the same treatment as Cornwall routes & depots.

as per my post it’s the commercial network in Cornwall and doesn’t include other FSW parts

 

[richw]

Kernow is an isolated example within First UK bus, it has had an enthusiastic County Council working with it with First UK bus also throwing plenty of new fleet investment at Kernow

False. CC and first definitely aren’t working together as wonderfully as people are making out. The council bought 16 enviro 200mmc. The rest of the new vehicles are investment from First only.
The council contracted services barely make any money compared to record revenue on the commercial network. The contracted services are transferring to Go Ahead on 29th March, such is the lack of relationship between First and CC. The contracts mean a lack of freedom to do as the company please as it takes up a lot of resources.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The non-executive chairman, actually. He does seem to have been quite busy for such an old man , reversing his predecessor's strategy.

You're right - the CEO is quite youthful..... Never type tired

 

[winston270twm]

False. CC and first definitely aren’t working together as wonderfully as people are making out. The council bought 16 enviro 200mmc. The rest of the new vehicles are investment from First only.
The council contracted services barely make any money compared to record revenue on the commercial network. The contracted services are transferring to Go Ahead on 29th March, such is the lack of relationship between First and CC. The contracts mean a lack of freedom to do as the company please as it takes up a lot of resources.

A pro-bus County Council with funding being thrown at it then. I can't think of many other UK Councils that own 16 x E200MMC's from new. Most of them are struggling to cover existing tenders, let along buying their own fleets.

Also, how many other First Subsidiaries have had the same treatment from First of substantial new fleets ? How many new buses have First put in to Taunton / Bridgwater & Yeovil ?

Kernow typically operate lower frequency commercial routes in comparison to urban areas, therefore, any passenger growth is going to be substantially higher percentages than the norm.

Tendered services everywhere typically aren't very profitable. I suspect the award of Cornwall tenders to Go-Ahead will backfire somewhere along the line.

 

[richw]

I suspect the award of Cornwall tenders to Go-Ahead will backfire somewhere along the line.

this is the expectation of pretty much everyone I’ve spoke with in the industry, barring a few Go Ahead fanboys!
I’d suggest giving it 6 months, they’ve hired in a considerable number of agency drivers on a 6 month contract making it possible. It buys them 6 months to sort their own staffing, training etc.
I’m looking forward to seeing up country city based agency drivers trying to take 11m single deckers down Cornish roads!

 

[Dai Corner]

this is the expectation of pretty much everyone I’ve spoke with in the industry, barring a few Go Ahead fanboys!
I’d suggest giving it 6 months, they’ve hired in a considerable number of agency drivers on a 6 month contract making it possible. It buys them 6 months to sort their own staffing, training etc.
I’m looking forward to seeing up country city based agency drivers trying to take 11m single deckers down Cornish roads!

Will all the ex-First drivers leave the bus industry or the area?

 

[richw]

Will all the ex-First drivers leave the bus industry or the area?

What ex first drivers?

 

[Dai Corner]

What ex first drivers?

I thought First were losing the Council contracts to Go-Ahead? Are they redeploying the resources to commercial routes?

 

[richw]

I thought First were losing the Council contracts to Go-Ahead? Are they redeploying the resources to commercial routes?

no redundancy’s and no reduction of driver numbers. In fact the training school are still teaching new drivers. First kernow have won a number of private contracts which more than covers the tenders going to Go Ahead.
Increase in commercial service work too, frequency increases a couple of new routes.
23 school buses won with more being bid for in next round of bidding

 

[winston270twm]

this is the expectation of pretty much everyone I’ve spoke with in the industry, barring a few Go Ahead fanboys!
I’d suggest giving it 6 months, they’ve hired in a considerable number of agency drivers on a 6 month contract making it possible. It buys them 6 months to sort their own staffing, training etc.
I’m looking forward to seeing up country city based agency drivers trying to take 11m single deckers down Cornish roads!

I don't see how it can't.... the contracts are spread far & wide across Cornwall needing multiple operating centres. With little margin on tendered work, they'll be very little room for manoeuvre should anyone at Go-Ahead having got their numbers wrong.

I reckon Go-Ahead will end up handing them back within 6-12 months, especially as tenders get withdrawn due to First providing a commercial service. The concentration of services will also become far too fragmented to finance a dedicated operating base.

no redundancy’s and no reduction of driver numbers. In fact the training school are still teaching new drivers. First kernow have won a number of private contracts which more than covers the tenders going to Go Ahead.
Increase in commercial service work too, frequency increases a couple of new routes.
23 school buses won with more being bid for in next round of bidding

It's a shame Alex Carter can't run more of First UK Bus, may be much more positive story Nationally then. There are certainly pockets of First UK Bus that have made significant improvements, but still not enough overall yet. They still need to shake off the past mistakes of continual cuts, spiral of decline & under investment in the poorer performing subsidiaries.

 

[richw]

I don't see how it can't.... the contracts are spread far & wide across Cornwall needing multiple operating centres. With little margin on tendered work, they'll be very little room for manoeuvre should anyone at Go-Ahead having got their numbers wrong.

I reckon Go-Ahead will end up handing them back within 6-12 months, especially as tenders get withdrawn due to First providing a commercial service. The concentration of services will also become far too fragmented to finance a dedicated operating base.

Agency drivers aren’t going to be cheap, advertising £14 an hour plus meal and hotels. From a previous management job when I’ve used agency staff, the agency in that industry was charging 100% hourly rate as their fee, so that £14 becomes £28 an hour. There is no way they would have factored that in and likely anticipated a larger number of first drivers being available. It’s been said CC told GA we would all be eligible for tupe which is near enough false except for a few part timers who do solely closed school runs, the rest of us don’t work solely contracted work, and no redundancy risk

I was chatting with a manager from stagecoach up north the other day, and he is on the Same thought lines as the rest of us, 6-12 months. He’s got no connection so a completely unbiased but knowledgable opinion.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

I don't see how it can't.... the contracts are spread far & wide across Cornwall needing multiple operating centres. With little margin on tendered work, they'll be very little room for manoeuvre should anyone at Go-Ahead having got their numbers wrong.

I reckon Go-Ahead will end up handing them back within 6-12 months, especially as tenders get withdrawn due to First providing a commercial service. The concentration of services will also become far too fragmented to finance a dedicated operating base.



It's a shame Alex Carter can't run more of First UK Bus, may be much more positive story Nationally then. There are certainly pockets of First UK Bus that have made significant improvements, but still not enough overall yet. They still need to shake off the past mistakes of continual cuts, spiral of decline & under investment in the poorer performing subsidiaries.

But they don't need to finance a dedicated operating base do they?
I thought they were operating out of Corserv, or will the buses be parked up somewhere and taken to Corserv for a wash and service?
A portable demountable structure for drivers to sign on, and even that is done remotely by, for example, Stagecoach at Ingleton - outstation of Lancaster. Similarly Ambleside where they park up half a dozen buses on the pubic car park. Not even a gate to lock.

 

[richw]

But they don't need to finance a dedicated operating base do they?
I thought they were operating out of Corserv, or will the buses be parked up somewhere and taken to Corserv for a wash and service?
A portable demountable structure for drivers to sign on, and even that is done remotely by, for example, Stagecoach at Ingleton - outstation of Lancaster. Similarly Ambleside where they park up half a dozen buses on the pubic car park. Not even a gate to lock.

Correct they are using council facilities for parking. Last I heard recruiting engineers was going similarly to drivers, there isn’t an unemployed pool down here.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Hmm. Over the last decade the Essex OpCo has had more "turning the corners" than I've had hot dinners. Each time, they've hit the brick wall. Congestion, exacerbated by the lack of resources. What's changed?

As everyone has pointed out First have done some good marketing (and a few disasters too). But that's not much use to an OpCo struggling to keep its head above water (whatever the state of the balance sheet). Whenever I speak to passengers they say their overriding priority is a service they can rely on. Repaints and refurbs are secondary concerns, even if they appear on the radar.

Roger French, reviewing AirLink, hit the nail on the head. It's lovely, but he wouldn't rely on it to catch his flight. What's the point?

Essex share management with Eastern Counties. It makes no difference. So it's not management.

Congestion is the bane of the Home Counties, and Stagecoach, Arriva and Go-Ahead (and a lot of smaller bretheren ) struggle too. It has taken a fair few of them under, so it is a huge credit to First Essex staff and local management that they manage as well as they do. So why do the others cope better? What's the difference? A supportive Head Office that they can rely on, so they can take risks. Reduce their exposure, because they know that when it matters, their bosses will deliver the goods to make sure they are competitive. First in Essex have no such assurance. They can't compete so their only option is to try and keep any competition out. That takes resources that they don't have. A high price and poor quality service is the result and the cycle of deprivation continues.

The difference becomes ever more apparent. Belatedly Essex County are cutting subsidies. When that happened in neighbouring counties commercial services took up the slack. No prospect with First Essex. They have no slack. So as far as attracting custom is concerned, no chance. No bus to rely on, whether timetabled or not.

We know that First can succeed with enough government and Council support. So could anyone else.

But every Corporate failure has its successes. It hasn't always saved them. Perhaps like every child, it's how we fare when we have to stand on our own two feet that matters? At least, that is why I wonder how good First actually are at running UKBus.

Very cynical but perhaps what has changed is that First are betting on the Boris bonus (well I suppose at least it's a better prospect than Trump's bonus). First do well, apparently, in Cornwall and Norfolk. Is it enough?

The usual @DragonEast rant but with a Roger French quote that is taken out of context.

Roger French, reviewing AirLink, hit the nail on the head. It's lovely, but he wouldn't rely on it to catch his flight. What's the point?

Roger actually says

"I ask him if there are delays ahead and he explains about the roadworks on the A127. I’m glad I haven’t relied on the X30 to connect with a flight. I settle down in the front offside seat on the upper deck and immediately realise this is a mistake with its upright back and hard cushion but I decide to persevere to get a good view of the promised roadworks ahead."

Said blog shows photographs of the roadworks and a stream of cars also caught up in it. That may seem like semantics but major roadworks on a route aren't why First Essex are struggling and despite having "the same management", it is clear that there are some major differences between FEC and FE. Where's the route branding that FEC promote in Norwich? The relaunch of the Ipswich operations? No, FE seem to be resolutely in 2012 mode in terms of marketing except stopping printing timetables. As we've seen with First Kernow, strong commercial and operational nous combined with effective marketing can deliver. Essex should be able to deliver better results especially having exited the Clacton area. The rest of their territory is economically buoyant.



Of the major groups, First is the one I encounter most often. FWoE is my local firm. You can see the good work they do but also the constraints they've had to work to. There are good managers about but they are clearly working with constraints on capital. Paying off debt (with having lower interest payments) and not having to bail out Greyhound will help. However, it must be difficult for someone like Nigel Eggleton having to raid Worcester to get vehicles to meet Leicester's CAZ and replacing them with vehicles that are 7 years old, or introducing new branding in the Potteries on refurbs that are 12-14 years old. Don't think his part of the business has seen a new bus since the Potteries e200mmc - late 2016/early 2017?

There are some really good businesses there, and not just the usual Bristol/Glasgow/Leeds but also Hampshire and Kernow. Essex and South Yorkshire are the ones that really do need some attention though. One does wonder though..... had David Martin appeared earlier, would they have sold Manchester and Bolton? And will they now seek to retain Oldham as a base for Greater Manchester?

 

[Robertj21a]

With the crash in Stock Market prices, First Group has reduced to a mere 76p. It's been more in the 110-120p until very recently.

 

[winston270twm]

With the crash in Stock Market prices, First Group has reduced to a mere 76p. It's been more in the 110-120p until very recently.

They've all been clobbered even NX, those with large debts will get hit the hardest.

The FTSE 100 futures currently has it opening up Monday morning circa +6.5% after a big rise of the Dow Jones before close on Friday night.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

With the crash in Stock Market prices, First Group has reduced to a mere 76p. It's been more in the 110-120p until very recently.

Stagecoach is similarly down from 140p to 88p. All stocks are getting a battering.

 

[Robertj21a]

They've all been clobbered even NX, those with large debts will get hit the hardest.

The FTSE 100 futures currently has it opening up Monday morning circa +6.5% after a big rise of the Dow Jones before close on Friday night.

Oh yes, very true. However, I think it's only FGP that is now at its lowest ever point.

 

[overthewater]

It's the time to buy!!!