The last block wasn't short notice. The half hourly 12 car trains were barely half full, as witnessed by me on the ground and posters on this forum. Picking up passengers at Horsham, along with people off the hourly Arun Valley train, is hardly likely to overwhelm them. I'd have thought they would like to keep some people away from the bus operation, rather than funnel everyone that way. The time when they got overwhelmed, were they advertised as through trains to Brighton? That might explain it.
No, I'm not aware of any occasion when there have been Victoria to Brighton direct trains via Dorking - the point has always been to give airport passengers a direct train to Gatwick, and they've always been advertised as Victoria-Gatwick. But until 2024 they called at Three Bridges, for passengers to change there for Brighton - that was really what overwhelmed them, I think, rather than the Horsham calls, but the baby has been thrown out with the bathwater.
More importantly, the diverts in January 2024 fell apart because the timetable was just too optimistic, with short turnround times and minimum planned dwell times - so the trains kept getting more and more delayed through the day. And as soon as a southbound train missed its path at Mitcham, it was stuck behind a stopper all the way to Epsom, with no opportunity to overtake, and was then half an hour late. Then sometime around 7pm-8pm or so, a person was taken ill on a Victoria-bound diverted train at Clapham Junction, and the return working of that (the 20:11 from Victoria) was an hour late by the time it got to Horsham, completely full and standing... at which point it was terminated and sent back to Victoria, with passengers turfed out into the cold, narrow platforms at Horsham to await the next available train to Three Bridges / Gatwick. I eventually got home to Brighton
four hours after leaving Kings Cross, having rather wished I'd gone via East Grinstead.
Also on the 20:11 was one passenger in a wheelchair who required assistance. Unfortunately the lifts at Horsham were not working, so the passenger in a wheelchair was even more heavily delayed and what should have been a less than 2-hour journey became a 5½-hour nightmare. Her story was published as a double-page spread in RAIL magazine (issue 1002 pp12-13 - scan attached below). I suspect this will have concentrated minds at GTR to make sure that kind of failure didn't happen again, and I get the impression that the decision to remove the Horsham and Three Bridges calls from the diverted trains was a knee-jerk response to this article.
I forgot to say that when Brighton trains divert via Horsham and Littlehampton, they do make a public stop at Horsham. They usually are full. There seems little reason to stop them at Horsham when the normal advertised service is also running.
Fair point, though that is admittedly a separate issue. My best guess would be that some trains have crew relief at Horsham? Some driver depots do sign the Arun Valley but not the Littlehampton branch.
Additionally (and this is straying somewhat off topic), those Brighton-Victoria diversions via Littlehampton were fine (in respect of loadings) as long as they also ran fast buses between Three Bridges and Brighton; the fast buses took the bulk of the traffic for Brighton (as it was faster than sitting on the divert), with the train there for people who weren't in a rush or preferred to take the train the whole way. But the fast buses haven't run for a couple of years, meaning that the Littlehampton diversions are much busier than they used to be.