Future of NPR given HS2 issues and cancellation

[Krokodil]

This forum needs a betting book/log - it'd be fun and make some threads a bit more easy to agree to disagree - and the mods could have fun running the book

Note the word "almost". But ultimately how could a Labour government, after everything said about the project then decide not to continue if the door were open? They'd get the same criticism that they and the mayors have piled on to the current government. Hence I bet a private preference for this to actually be settled before they come to power.

"Almost" may be your get out of jail free card (a bit like the small print in the Network North list of "ideas" that were promoted as if they were promises) but we know what you were implying. A Labour Government could take all sorts of options. They could safeguard the route to protect it for later use, they could restart construction work on 2A (which is the cheapest section per mile so provides an opportunity to say "see, we got it done cheaper, we're more competent").

I am fairly certain that they will not be able to pawn off the land in a year, there's likely to be a judicial review + the fact that if they wanted it done in the year they would have to sell it still with CPO powers active + They still have yet to divide up the land and figure out how to sell and what to sell it for, which would be a long review + They have to take the inevitable bad press of selling off the land, which is something they cannot afford.

A fire sale will mean poor value for money. If they were to go ahead with that I'm sure that the NAO would be very interested, if only after the event.

 

[zwk500]

A fire sale will mean poor value for money. If they were to go ahead with that I'm sure that the NAO would be very interested, if only after the event.

There are bigger bureaucratic, legal and administrative problems in the way of a fire sale than the NAO coming through to check stable doors.

 

[GJMarshy]

I'm of the firm belief NPR will consist of TRU linked with an upgraded Chat Moss (Possibly bolton line too) via a relatively short point-point tunnel. Heard a few rumours but nothing concrete. It would definitely increase the capacity and reliability of fast east-west services, and local ones more than anything else. Speed is neither here-nor-there in most people's minds.

Such an investment would also have the side effect of enabling an "S-Bahn" like system on some of Greater Manchester's existing railways, with very high frequencies through the core. In this example, as long as Salford Interchange is served by 6tph+ from Piccadilly (Local) other local services can be routed via Victoria with little-no connectivity deficit. Northern GM residentscould also join the "NPR" line there, again less congestion on Piccadilly:

 

[may032]

View attachment 146977

Really like this idea. Presumably it’d be funded by the 12 billion to better connect Manc - Lpool, as outlined in the Network North document. They’ve got to find a way of properly utilising the Ordsall Chord somehow and a S-Bahn style system makes a lot of sense!

 

[daodao]

I'm of the firm belief NPR will consist of TRU linked with an upgraded Chat Moss (Possibly bolton line too) via a relatively short point-point tunnel. Heard a few rumours but nothing concrete. It would definitely increase the capacity and reliability of fast east-west services, and local ones more than anything else. Speed is neither here-nor-there in most people's minds.

Such an investment would also have the side effect of enabling an "S-Bahn" like system on some of Greater Manchester's existing railways, with very high frequencies through the core. In this example, as long as Salford Interchange is served by 6tph+ from Piccadilly (Local) other local services can be routed via Victoria with little-no connectivity deficit. Northern GM residents could also join the "NPR" line there, again less congestion on Piccadilly:

Unaffordable and unnecessary. The existing ex-LNW route from Liverpool Lime Street to Leeds City via Chat Moss and Standedge is adequate, but needs full electrification and upgrading east of Stalybridge as per TRU. 2 fast tph would be adequate, providing they are sufficiently long, so an expensive tunnel is overkill. TPE are about to downgrade this service to just 1 tph! Additional semi-fast services would run between Manchester and Leeds, as now.

Better use needs to be made of existing capacity by simplifying routeings, together with conversion of some more local rail lines to Metrolink and mothballing the problematic Ordsall curve, before considering expensive tunnelling. Trains on the Standedge line not proceeding beyond Greater Manchester should terminate in Victoria platforms 1-2 (for stopping trains only, as these platforms are short) or Piccadilly platforms 1-3.

 

[GJMarshy]

Unaffordable and unnecessary. The existing ex-LNW route from Liverpool Lime Street to Leeds City via Chat Moss and Standedge is adequate, but needs full electrification and upgrading east of Stalybridge as per TRU. 2 fast tph would be adequate, providing they are sufficiently long, so an expensive tunnel is overkill. TPE are about to downgrade this service to just 1 tph! Additional semi-fast services would run between Manchester and Leeds, as now.

Better use needs to be made of existing capacity by simplifying routeings, together with conversion of some more local rail lines to Metrolink and mothballing the problematic Ordsall curve, before considering expensive tunnelling. Trains on the Standedge line not proceeding beyond Greater Manchester should terminate in Victoria platforms 1-2 (for stopping trains only, as these platforms are short) or Piccadilly platforms 1-3.

The proposal is only to connect existing lines via a relatively short point-point tunnel. 4km. That’s the equivalent of the Paddington EL portal to between Bond St. and TCR.

Whatever the solution is has to at least meet the 6tph fast TRU is designed for, plus the Sheffield, North Wales & Scotland services. You just can’t accommodate them in the existing network without hammering local services and generally causing chaos!

 

[zwk500]

The proposal is only to connect existing lines via a relatively short point-point tunnel. 4km. That’s the equivalent of the Paddington EL portal to between Bond St. and TCR.

Key difference in Manchester is that the lines.youre connecting are on viaducts, so you'd need somewhat steep gradients whereas in London you are connecting a found.level line with a tunnel at that distance.

You just can’t accommodate them in the existing network without hammering local services and generally causing chaos!

This is very true, but equally your proposal removes.services such as Leeds-Hebden Bridge-Chat Moss so it's always a matter of compromise

 

[Grimsby town]

Unaffordable and unnecessary. The existing ex-LNW route from Liverpool Lime Street to Leeds City via Chat Moss and Standedge is adequate, but needs full electrification and upgrading east of Stalybridge as per TRU. 2 fast tph would be adequate, providing they are sufficiently long, so an expensive tunnel is overkill. TPE are about to downgrade this service to just 1 tph! Additional semi-fast services would run between Manchester and Leeds, as now.

Better use needs to be made of existing capacity by simplifying routeings, together with conversion of some more local rail lines to Metrolink and mothballing the problematic Ordsall curve, before considering expensive tunnelling. Trains on the Standedge line not proceeding beyond Greater Manchester should terminate in Victoria platforms 1-2 (for stopping trains only, as these platforms are short) or Piccadilly platforms 1-3.

The expensive tunneling isn't going to happen over night. Schemes like NPR and HS2 will take decades to implement. They need to be planned now.

By all means look to timetable rejigs and metrolink expansion over the coming decade but long term tunneling is going to be needed. Some people have a very short term and negative outlook on rail.

 

[The Ham]

The expensive tunneling isn't going to happen over night. Schemes like NPR and HS2 will take decades to implement. They need to be planned now.

By all means look to timetable rejigs and metrolink expansion over the coming decade but long term tunneling is going to be needed. Some people have a very short term and negative outlook on rail.

We're rapidly approaching 15 years since HS2 was announced, chances are other projects will take longer to deliver.

Even 20 years of 0.5% growth is an extra 10% in terms of passenger numbers, however the numbers ramp up quite quickly from there 0.92% is about +20% and 2.05% is plus 50%.