Grand Central Fleet Replacement - Speculation

[liamf656]

In light of the news regarding Grand Central...

Seems the GC have had there track access extended till 2038. I believe this means a new order we be looked at to replace the 180s.

Grand Central secures track access to Bradford and Sunderland until 2038

EXCLUSIVE: ORR approves 11-year extension for existing rights on East Coast Main Line.

www.railmagazine.com

...I thought I'd hit the ground running with a speculative thread so that the main thread can stick to the facts

It may be a bit early to make a guess on what the new stock may be, but what would you like to see as 180/221 replacements?

 

[ScottGallagher]

A tack on order for the CAF 897s for LNER would be my bet, perhaps not 10 car though!

 

[Class15]

A tack on order for the CAF 897s for LNER would be my bet, perhaps not 10 car though!

Is 897 the confirmed class number? I thought that was just speculation.

 

[The Middle]

Is 897 the confirmed class number? I thought that was just speculation.

That is the confirmed number.

It is going to be an Hitachi order however

 

[Helvellyn]

The way First Group have been snaffling up Open Access operators I wonder if they'll make Arriva an offer for Grand Central and just order more 803s.

 

[jh64]

That is the confirmed number.

It is going to be an Hitachi order however

Trains for the North East, made in the North East!

 

[YorksLad12]

The way First Group have been snaffling up Open Access operators I wonder if they'll make Arriva an offer for Grand Central and just order more 803s.

803s won't help Grand Central, unless they've got a loco lined up to haul the stock off the wires. 802s or 805s (the 805s being most recent would work), but they'll have to do a procurement exercise, by which time the new CAF units for LNER will be being built (you'd hope).

 

[Pete_uk]

Hope they go fir something different from the 800 series units.

Can anyone else do a 125mph bi mode?

 

[Halish Railway]

Hope they go fir something different from the 800 series units.

Can anyone else do a 125mph bi mode?

Stadler? It probably would require a unique design with two “thrash cupboards”, but it’d be a step up from the Class 180s and much more preferable to travelling on an Azuma.

 

[John R]

Stadler? It probably would require a unique design with two “thrash cupboards”, but it’d be a step up from the Class 180s and much more preferable to travelling on an Azuma.

I can't see Stadler doing a "unique design" for such a small order.

The obvious two contenders are Hitachi and CAF, which has the LNER order for the 225 replacement. I would have thought CAF would be very keen to get another order whereas Hitachi was reportedly very ambivalent about the future of its 800 production line prior to the First Group order.

 

[357]

Stadler? It probably would require a unique design with two “thrash cupboards”

The design is not rated as crashworthy for 125mph as I understand it. It would need significant work on a new design, for what will be yet another microfleet, that could end up having all the same microfleet issues that the 180s have.

 

[Snow1964]

803s won't help Grand Central, unless they've got a loco lined up to haul the stock off the wires. 802s or 805s (the 805s being most recent would work), but they'll have to do a procurement exercise, by which time the new CAF units for LNER will be being built (you'd hope).

I'm not so sure about having to do a procurement exercise.

It's not a state owned company, Board of Directors would sign it off, might already have done so subject to access rights extension being agreed. Highly likely would have had an intention of rolling stock to be acquired when they opted to apply for the access rights extension, if so could order quickly.

My money is an 802 with one diesel generator and one battery pack (as recently trialled on TPE) instead of all diesel generators.

I wouldn't rule out the diesel generator being secondhand. (ie they make a deal with Hitachi or a LeaseCo or another operator to take them from existing IETs where another operator is looking to switch an existing diesel generator to battery pack). My gut feeling is others want to swap to say mix of battery and diesel (rather than all diesels) and chance to share the cost would be appealing.

 

[JonathanH]

My gut feeling is others want to swap to say mix of battery and diesel (rather than all diesels) and chance to share the cost would be appealing.

Would the DfT want it to appear as if their operators are doing deals with an open access operator, albeit through the leasing company as an intermediary?

 

[John R]

Highly likely would have had an intention of rolling stock to be acquired when they opted to apply for the access rights extension

They made that clear in the announcement that they were applying for the extension.

Grand Central Submits Track Access Rights Application | Grand Central Rail

Grand Central has submitted its application to the rail regulator to extend its track access rights beyond 2027, with the ambition of securing its long-term future operating across Yorkshire and the North East The application has been backed by local organisations including Hays Travel, F.C.

www.grandcentralrail.com

If approved, the application could unlock the conditions for Grand Central to invest in new, state-of-the-art Bi-Mode trains. These trains would replace the current 24-year-old stock and could increase capacity on the line by up to 20%, offering more services to customers and making journeys more reliable and comfortable. The trains would also cut carbon emissions and could serve the UK long into the future as they operate on both electric and non-electric tracks.

 

[saismee]

Stadler? It probably would require a unique design with two “thrash cupboards”, but it’d be a step up from the Class 180s and much more preferable to travelling on an Azuma.

As much as I'd love to see more Stadlers, they aren't operating anywhere near where any other Stadler fleets are. Ideally, the new fleet would be built in the UK, so Hitachi and Alstom would be best, and IETs already operate around there.

The design is not rated as crashworthy for 125mph as I understand it. It would need significant work on a new design, for what will be yet another microfleet, that could end up having all the same microfleet issues that the 180s have.

I don't think Stadler would mind designing a new unit for this, after all, the 231, 745, 755, 756, 777 and 555s are all unique designs for British loading gauge with their own oddities. The biggest problem is where to maintain them and the new design itself. If you remove the Jacob's bogies (presumably the reason they aren't considered crash-safe at 125MPH), you either have a bunch of internal ramps or lose the level boarding - though the SMILE operates at 125MPH and has Jacob's bogies.

If we lose level boarding, there's no real benefit to Stadler over Hitachi, Alstom, or CAF. As much as people hate the Hitachi units, they seem to be the most reasonable order in this case.

Are the 221s confirmed to be replaced as well?

 

[trainswitheddy]

Are the 221s confirmed to be replaced as well?

Pretty sure the 221s lease is up this summer, they were only ever brought in to cover for 180 failures if I remember right. Hopefully they stay longer though

 

[a_c_skinner]

Surely for an ECML operator it will be an 80X type? Even the 897?

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Surely for an ECML operator it will be an 80X type? Even the 897?

It will almost certainly be numbered in the 8XX range as an intercity train, but if it's a Hitachi (likely 80x) or someone else, we won't know just yet.

 

[Snow1964]

Would the DfT want it to appear as if their operators are doing deals with an open access operator, albeit through the leasing company as an intermediary?

They could spin it quite easily, batteries to save fuel and emissions etc. Not mention who might get spare engines.

But I am fairly sure they will basically order standard 802, 805 design. Perhaps different seats, but no way try and move things around as has (badly and time consumingly) happened with 810s.

They are going to want it to work out of the box so will pick a design with as much tried and tested equipment as possible.

Regarding doing deals with other operators and LeasCos go, I bet GWR would like to return some 5car 802s and get some 9car 807s for Paddington-Cardiff services. But that is digressing. My money is on a 802, 805 clone with battery pack and less diesel generators.

 

[Trainbike46]

That is the confirmed number.

It is going to be an Hitachi order however

Is that confirmed in some way?

Hope they go fir something different from the 800 series units.

Can anyone else do a 125mph bi mode?

In addition to Hitachi:
- CAF are building the LNER 897s
- Stadler FLIRTs can be 125mph

And while I'm sure Siemens and Alstom could offer a 125mph design, I'm not sure they'd be interested in a small order for GC that would require a new design for them.

My guess would be that Hitachi and CAF are the best placed to build these units

I can't see Stadler doing a "unique design" for such a small order.

Stadler does unique designs for small orders all the time. It just tends to be expensive, so is less likely to be chosen by GC

As much as I'd love to see more Stadlers, they aren't operating anywhere near where any other Stadler fleets are. Ideally, the new fleet would be built in the UK, so Hitachi and Alstom would be best, and IETs already operate around there.

Siemens and CAF also have UK factories

I don't think Stadler would mind designing a new unit for this, after all, the 231, 745, 755, 756, 777 and 555s are all unique designs for British loading gauge with their own oddities. The biggest problem is where to maintain them and the new design itself. If you remove the Jacob's bogies (presumably the reason they aren't considered crash-safe at 125MPH), you either have a bunch of internal ramps or lose the level boarding - though the SMILE operates at 125MPH and has Jacob's bogies.

231s, 745s, 755s and 756s are all essentially the same design with minor changes between them. The 777s and 555s are also very similar. Of course, there's also the Glasgow Metro units, which are very unique

 

[saismee]

Siemens and CAF also have UK factories

231s, 745s, 755s and 756s are all essentially the same design with minor changes between them. The 777s and 555s are also very similar. Of course, there's also the Glasgow Metro units, which are very unique

Forgot about Siemens, didn't know CAF had UK factories!

Yes, all those units are very similar but they all have their own oddities. The 745s are already different to the 755s because of their wheel design. They're all quite modified from the standard FLIRT, and the 777s are very custom.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

didn't know CAF had UK factories!

"Factories" is a bit generous, they have an assembley plant in Newport (Wales), where stuff is shipped from other places, assembled, and then put onto trucks.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

If you remove the Jacob's bogies (presumably the reason they aren't considered crash-safe at 125MPH), you either have a bunch of internal ramps or lose the level boarding - though the SMILE operates at 125MPH and has Jacob's bogies.

...and the class 373 plus hundreds of TGVs use them at 186 mph daily.

I would have thought articulation would be safer than conventional bogies given that articulated rolling stock tends to stay upright and inline when it derails?

 

[Discuss223]

With Hitachi running behind on a large order of units for EMR, I can't see them wanting to take on any more orders.

It's a shame that more Voyagers won't be available, as they would be perfect for the nature of the GC route and perfect for maintenance at Crofton.

My preference would be for EMR to retain some of their Meridians until the 810s have sorted out teething problems and then for them to be handed over to Grand Central.

Scot Rail surely wouldn't need all of the 23 Meridians, given the small nature of their Inter7City route.

Another option would be to make the Class 180s corrosion proof, re-applying protective coatings and also replacing the engine-train wiring, which I believe* has been the cause of the un-reliability and fires that has caused Grand Central so many reliability issues.

 

[saismee]

...and the class 373 plus hundreds of TGVs use them at 186 mph daily.

I would have thought articulation would be safer than conventional bogies given that articulated rolling stock tends to stay upright and inline when it derails?

Depends on the type of accident. There's much less material to absorb energy in the event of a collision when using Jacob's bogies.

 

[Trainbike46]

Forgot about Siemens, didn't know CAF had UK factories!

Yes, all those units are very similar but they all have their own oddities. The 745s are already different to the 755s because of their wheel design. They're all quite modified from the standard FLIRT, and the 777s are very custom.

"Factories" is a bit generous, they have an assembley plant in Newport (Wales), where stuff is shipped from other places, assembled, and then put onto trucks.

The reason for the plural was that Siemens and CAF have one uk manufacturing plant each, so two between them.

Depends on the type of accident. There's much less material to absorb energy in the event of a collision when using Jacob's bogies.

Clearly jacob's bogies can meet the safety requirements, given that they are used for high-speed 300km/h running across Europe and in the UK.

With Hitachi running behind on a large order of units for EMR, I can't see them wanting to take on any more orders.

It's a shame that more Voyagers won't be available, as they would be perfect for the nature of the GC route and perfect for maintenance at Crofton.

My preference would be for EMR to retain some of their Meridians until the 810s have sorted out teething problems and then for them to be handed over to Grand Central.

Scot Rail surely wouldn't need all of the 23 Meridians, given the small nature of their Inter7City route.

Another option would be to make the Class 180s corrosion proof, re-applying protective coatings and also replacing the engine-train wiring, which I believe* has been the cause of the un-reliability and fires that has caused Grand Central so many reliability issues.

The track access agreement is clear that the new units will be bimodes, BEMUs, or trimodes (OHLE, Battery, diesel engines) - so none of the units you mention will be used.

 

[saismee]

Clearly jacob's bogies can meet the safety requirements, given that they are used for high-speed 300km/h running across Europe and in the UK.

I'd imagine they've been risk assessed differently due to different signalling? Either way I doubt we'll be seeing any Jacob's bogies from anyone other than Stadler for the time being.

 

[Discuss223]

The track access agreement is clear that the new units will be bimodes, BEMUs, or trimodes (OHLE, Battery, diesel engines) - so none of the units you mention will be used.

That's a great shame.

The post quoted at the top of the thread just said that new stock "will be looked at", so the ambiguity made me think a range of options were open.

 

[sjpowermac]

Wild card:
Mk5A is 125 mph capable, I wonder if a Class 93 on electric could be cleared for 125 mph? Weight might be a problem, but they are lighter than a Class 67.

The Class 93 would also need fitting with the ‘CAF controls’ to allow them to operate with Mk5A but surely that is not an insurmountable obstacle.

Off the wires the diesel/battery combo of the Class 93 would easily cope with the routes Grand Central operate over.

It would be interesting to know how long Chiltern have proposed using Class 68/Mk5A for, I would doubt it would come anywhere near 2038…

A fleet of 13 would also seem about right to replace the 10(?) Class 180s with a bit of wiggle room for some new services.

Probably just wishful thinking from a loco spotter

 

[Snex]

Wild card:
Mk5A is 125 mph capable, I wonder if a Class 93 on electric could be cleared for 125 mph? Weight might be a problem, but they are lighter than a Class 67.

The Class 93 would also need fitting with the ‘CAF controls’ to allow them to operate with Mk5A but surely that is not an insurmountable obstacle.

Off the wires the diesel/battery combo of the Class 93 would easily cope with the routes Grand Central operate over.

It would be interesting to know how long Chiltern have proposed using Class 68/Mk5A for, I would doubt it would come anywhere near 2038…

A fleet of 13 would also seem about right to replace the 10(?) Class 180s with a bit of wiggle room for some new services.

Probably just wishful thinking from a loco spotter

Imagine the length will be the bigger problem, some of the stations aren't very long. Seaham at 115m and Low Moor at 100m being particularly troublesome. It's probably something that would need to be considered on what's ordered aswell as I assume Low Moor, don't know the station, has a limit on how much you can overhang the platforms - assume the Class 180's already do.