Grand Union's proposed Stirling – Euston service now authorised by ORR

[anthony263]

Do Grand Union even have a rolling stock ready for their London to Carmarthen service supposed to start either end of this year or mid next year?

Not yet I suspect now they'll try to do a deal for enough units to do both services

 

[cle]

I wonder if another Pitlochry - London service could work - re the comment on north of Stirling. Can a service dwell/turn there?

I do think Inverness could stand up 2tpd at least. Tourism in the Highlands is booming - admittedly, intl visitors usually combine with Edinburgh. But might see enough one-way versions of itineraries with London as a triangle.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I wonder if another Pitlochry - London service could work - re the comment on north of Stirling. Can a service dwell/turn there?

I do think Inverness could stand up 2tpd at least. Tourism in the Highlands is booming - admittedly, intl visitors usually combine with Edinburgh. But might see enough one-way versions of itineraries with London as a triangle.

Thing with Inverness is that it's just such a long journey, so you can only really do "travel all day" (Chieftain) or "travel all night" (Cally). I'm not sure there'd be that much demand for leaving at noon and arriving at midnight, say.

 

[A S Leib]

Thing with Inverness is that it's just such a long journey, so you can only really do "travel all day" (Chieftain) or "travel all night" (Cally). I'm not sure there'd be that much demand for leaving at noon and arriving at midnight, say.

I wonder if there'd be demand for an early-morning one; the current Inverness to Central Belt departures are 04:54 (Edinburgh via Aberdeen, an hour longer than via Stirling), 05:36 (Glasgow), 06:38 (Edinburgh) and then the 07:55 LNER. An 05:55 to London might be able to get to the Central Belt by half nine, but I don't know if there'd be the capacity for it.

 

[The Middle]

The issue with all this trying to extend it past Stirling is that you are having to introduce another crew base. All OA operators are single depot operations (GC have the 2 for their 2 service groups). Looking at it this looks incredibly likely to be a Preston based crew with lodging either end.

 

[ainsworth74]

Yes their trains are full, but GC's reliability is abysmal. With all the compensation they have to pay to their passengers, their profit must be tiny or non-existent.

According to their most recent set of accounts (for the year ending 31 December 2022, we will probably not see the 2023 accounts for a five or six months yet) they made a loss after tax of £802,000. Admittedly that is a substantial improvement of their 2021 reporting year where the after tax loss was a cool £22.2 million. They point to Omicron during the first part of 2022, inflation impacting on their costs particularly light maintenance, the cost of living crisis and, indeed, fleet unreliability leading to cancellations and refunds during the second and third quarters of the year as being reasons for poor trading performance.

 

[RailWonderer]

Don't the vast majority fly London - Inverness? Train can't compete. If they terminated their services in Manchester, Leeds or Liverpool it could work better and be less operational hassle.

 

[A S Leib]

Don't the vast majority fly London - Inverness? Train can't compete. If they terminated their services in Manchester, Leeds or Liverpool it could work better and be less operational hassle.

As far as I can find, Gatwick has slightly over a third of Inverness's domestic passengers (700,000 in 2022); I don't know how many go to Heathrow or Luton, Amsterdam (the only year-round international destination) or Bergen or Palma.

The ORR statistics say 15,000 annual passengers between Inverness and London; the next highest south of the Central Belt are Newcastle (6400), York (2600) and Darlington (600). Split ticketing is almost certainly involved there though; I struggle to believe that there's more demand between Inverness and Darlington than Leeds.

 

[lachlan]

Don't the vast majority fly London - Inverness? Train can't compete. If they terminated their services in Manchester, Leeds or Liverpool it could work better and be less operational hassle.

As with the Aberdeen services, the trains are not just about end-to-end connectivity but also connecting the intermediate stops

 

[scrapthe503]

Not yet I suspect now they'll try to do a deal for enough units to do both services

A person involved with GU and the start up of Carmarthen was noted offering jobs to Avanti drivers in return for them sending copies of Class 221 traction manuals and such to help them plagiarise copyright.

So, given the 222s are not actually technically available, expect 221s for both Carmarthen and Stirling.

 

[cle]

As with the Aberdeen services, the trains are not just about end-to-end connectivity but also connecting the intermediate stops

And planes like Stirling, Pitlochry, Aviemore - not wildly accessible from the airports, whereas the train is super central. Pitlochry is largely a walkable town (train to pubs to hostels/BnB) - very accessible, easy weekend without a car.

 

[willgreen]

Split ticketing is almost certainly involved there though; I struggle to believe that there's more demand between Inverness and Darlington than Leeds.

In fairness Darlington is a railhead for Catterick Garrison so military traffic may be playing a part there

 

[Railperf]

From a rolling stock point of view, could Grand Union use the Class 379's currently in warm storage? Would be a cleaner- greener option?

 

[Snow1964]

From a rolling stock point of view, could Grand Union use the Class 379's currently in warm storage? Would be a cleaner- greener option?

In theory yes, but the problem is not internally configured for comfortable 5 hour journeys.

They wouldn't really be able to use fast tracks south of Crewe throughout as they have 110mph limit, so would need to move out of way of fast trains. The 110mph is not going to make any difference north of Lancaster, and only small difference Tamworth-Lancaster section. But big problem on busy section south of there.

 

[The Planner]

In theory yes, but the problem is not internally configured for comfortable 5 hour journeys.

They wouldn't really be able to use fast tracks south of Crewe throughout as they have 110mph limit, so would need to move out of way of fast trains. The 110mph is not going to make any difference north of Lancaster, and only small difference Tamworth-Lancaster section. But big problem on busy section south of there.

They have fast line paths south of Rugby.

 

[Railperf]

They have fast line paths south of Rugby.

110mph non stop Crewe to Euston shouldn't be an issue on the fast lines - should it?

 

[The Planner]

110mph non stop Crewe to Euston shouldn't be an issue on the fast lines - should it?

They were part of the Dec 22 timetable construction, the OA paths were part of it, including a MK stop.

 

[Spaceship323]

Deleted because of duplicate answer by @The Planner

 

[The Planner]

No because it's already been stated that they'll use 221's which will run at 125

The paths are 110mph based.

 

[Peter0124]

It should really use 803s like Lumo, London to Stirling is fully electrified. And they are the same length as voyagers I think

 

[YorkRailFan]

It should really use 803s like Lumo, London to Stirling is fully electrified. And they are the same length as voyagers I think

But have more seats than 803s.

 

[Clansman]

But have more seats than 803s.

803s are longer and have more seats than a Voyager.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

It should really use 803s like Lumo, London to Stirling is fully electrified. And they are the same length as voyagers I think

But have more seats than 803s.

803s are 130m long with 402 seats.
221s are 118.7m long with between 256-260 (276?) seats*

276 seats - According to GC
260 seats (+2 wheelchairs) - GC seating plan (did they add 4 seats in the bike area or are there fold-down seats there?)
256 seats (+2 wheelchairs - GC according to Wikipedia and Avanti seating plan (downloads as PDF)
262 seats (+2 wheelchairs) - XC according to Wikipedia

 

[YorkRailFan]

803s are longer and have more seats than a Voyager.

Agh, meant it the other way round. Stupid me.

 

[BlueLeanie]

As far as I can find, Gatwick has slightly over a third of Inverness's domestic passengers (700,000 in 2022); I don't know how many go to Heathrow or Luton, Amsterdam (the only year-round international destination) or Bergen or Palma.

The ORR statistics say 15,000 annual passengers between Inverness and London; the next highest south of the Central Belt are Newcastle (6400), York (2600) and Darlington (600). Split ticketing is almost certainly involved there though; I struggle to believe that there's more demand between Inverness and Darlington than Leeds.

An old friend does a regular shopping trip to catch up with former workmates in London. She tells me it's easier, quicker, and cheaper to pop down to Gatwick or Luton than to try to get to Edinburgh or Glasgow. The 09:05 on the 20th March will get you into Luton for 10:25, then the 18:35 on the return for 20:05, all for £60 with a small shopping bag.

 

[norbitonflyer]

Everything I've read, outside of Grand Union's website, suggests that service isn't due to commence until 2027 now, to accommodate the delivery of new bi-mode stock.

Although in the Guardian's report of WSMR's licence they suggest that GU are still planning for carmarthen this year. Do they knpow somnething qwe don't? Or do we know something they don't!

Hollywood connection: Wrexham lines up three-hour direct rail service to London

Train maker Alstom plans fast service skirting Birmingham as Ryan Reynolds’ football club takeover reaps in ever more benefits

www.theguardian.com

 

[eldomtom2]

Although in the Guardian's report of WSMR's licence they suggest that GU are still planning for carmarthen this year. Do they knpow somnething qwe don't? Or do we know something they don't!

Hollywood connection: Wrexham lines up three-hour direct rail service to London

Train maker Alstom plans fast service skirting Birmingham as Ryan Reynolds’ football club takeover reaps in ever more benefits

www.theguardian.com

I wouldn't put much stock in that - sounds like a news reporter reaching for the closest example of an OA operation that comes to mind.

 

[The Planner]

Although in the Guardian's report of WSMR's licence they suggest that GU are still planning for carmarthen this year. Do they knpow somnething qwe don't? Or do we know something they don't!

Hollywood connection: Wrexham lines up three-hour direct rail service to London

Train maker Alstom plans fast service skirting Birmingham as Ryan Reynolds’ football club takeover reaps in ever more benefits

www.theguardian.com

Carmarthen is still Dec 2027 unless GU have suddenly found some trains and drivers.

 

[anthony263]

Carmarthen is still Dec 2027 unless GU have suddenly found some trains and drivers.

Only thing I can see is grand union purchasing brand new rolling stock for the Carmarthen service, possibly an add on to the LNER order from CAF

 

[321362]

Just says likely to be a 221 or 222.

oh dear. they aren't exactly renowned for being reliable...

The electric alternative would be some 110mph 350/2s or 379s.

I'm not sure you would acquire new trains with access rights approval for only 5 years (2025-30), although the decision letter came close to approving rights till 2034, which it says is the earliest likely date for HS2 services reaching the WCML

Ex-Avanti 221s would be able to use the EPS speeds on the northern half of the WCML, and should be available before any 222s from EMR.

379s are going to GN as far as I know