Great Northern Fleet - 379s

[JonathanH]

https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/031623-2022/PDF

None of that is going to be in service by the end of 2024.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

None of that is going to be in service by the end of 2024.

Guess thats why we have speculation/insider knowledge on here of what a potential fudge up might look like although im surprised DafT want to sanction a wholesale training of 100's of drivers and rolling stock technicians. The networkers are tatty but not exactly bottom of the performance table

 

[brad465]

I have been subtly hinting in this thread for while including this page...
Obviously a bit too subtle.

Anything stored, will be joined by anything still in service. There will be no 465/2, 465/9 or 466 in use at the December timetable change.

So Southern are planning to boost services at the end of this year, and either get no net additional rolling stock to support this while a number go over to replace the remaining MetCam Networkers, or Southern do get the extra stock and Southeastern are left with a huge stock deficit.

Unless the plan is for Jesus to perform a miracle involving 5x 377s and 2x 387s, something here doesn't add up.

 

[scrapthe503]

So Southern are planning to boost services at the end of this year, and either get no net additional rolling stock to support this while a number go over to replace the remaining MetCam Networkers, or Southern do get the extra stock and Southeastern are left with a huge stock deficit.

Unless the plan is for Jesus to perform a miracle involving 5x 377s and 2x 387s, something here doesn't add up.

All shall become clear, but it’s already been reasonably explained.

 

[Energy]

So Southern are planning to boost services at the end of this year, and either get no net additional rolling stock to support this while a number go over to replace the remaining MetCam Networkers, or Southern do get the extra stock and Southeastern are left with a huge stock deficit.

Unless the plan is for Jesus to perform a miracle involving 5x 377s and 2x 387s, something here doesn't add up.

The remaining MetCamm units not in store are ~25 4-car 465s and ~29 2-car 2-car 466s. Assuming GN goes entirely over to 379s and more services are operated by 700s (or they get the 717s going at 100mph) then replacing the remaining MetCamm networkers should be doable.

Roughly how many extra units would be needed for the extra Southern services?

 

[brad465]

All shall become clear, but it’s already been reasonably explained.

Assuming you work in the industry and can't disclose certain details based on what you've said, when can we expect this to become clear (i.e. made public)?

 

[scrapthe503]

Assuming you work in the industry and can't disclose certain details based on what you've said, when can we expect this to become clear (i.e. made public)?

Crikey. There’s a question.

One assumes someone needs to announce 379s first?

 

[brad465]

Crikey. There’s a question.

One assumes someone needs to announce 379s first?

Well given the chain reaction of stock transfers you're talking about, presumably that announcement will happen at the same time or maybe the day before everything else that happens as a consequence of the 379 transfer.

 

[scrapthe503]

Well given the chain reaction of stock transfers you're talking about, presumably that announcement will happen at the same time or maybe the day before everything else that happens as a consequence of the 379 transfer.

I wouldn't be so sure. And in addition, when so much is market sensitive, official announcements have to be very carefully calculated. Oh, and they have to be politically-advantageous.

What I would say, is try not to lose sleep over it. You'll be waiting a while.

 

[Samzino]

https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/031623-2022/PDF

Cheers, I do remember this but its effective date is 3 years from now. I assume SE have enough stock to wait till then.

 

[brad465]

I wouldn't be so sure. And in addition, when so much is market sensitive, official announcements have to be very carefully calculated. Oh, and they have to be politically-advantageous.

What I would say, is try not to lose sleep over it. You'll be waiting a while.

I see, well sorry to be a pain but when you drop a bombshell expect to get a lot of questions.

Cheers, I do remember this but its effective date is 3 years from now. I assume SE have enough stock to wait till then.

Unless the tender order was very quietly approved a while ago, I doubt any new order will be ready by 2027 from today, so such an order will have to be resubmitted or modified.

 

[ScotGG]

Anything stored, will be joined by anything still in service. There will be no 465/2, 465/9 or 466 in use at the December timetable change.

That's a hell of a lot of carriages going. Around 160 coaches gone.

Quite a reduction in capacity surely at Southeastern as not enough 377s to compensate?

 

[Energy]

That's a hell of a lot of carriages going. Quite a reduction in capacity surely at Southeastern as not enough 377s to compensate?

Look what I put above, if GN puts more 700s on the mainline (or uses the spare 717s) then it's doable. It's difficult to manage both MetCamm Networker retirement and increasing Southern services though.

Or some 387s to Southern and 700s on Southern Metro as mentioned below.

 

[Robski_]

So Southern are planning to boost services at the end of this year, and either get no net additional rolling stock to support this while a number go over to replace the remaining MetCam Networkers, or Southern do get the extra stock and Southeastern are left with a huge stock deficit.

Unless the plan is for Jesus to perform a miracle involving 5x 377s and 2x 387s, something here doesn't add up.

The whole cascade thing is a rumour, which I would doubt to be true due to the sheer complexity and impractibility of it. There was an SN -> SE electrostar cascade once, and now some people seem to be hard-wired into thinking that 379's to GN must mean 387's to SN which must mean 377's to SE.

If 379's to GN materialises, we could see a few 387 units go south. I seriously doubt it would be a lot though. If Southern desperately needs capacity (spoiler: it doesn't), they can consider using the 700/0's freed up from outer suburban GN work on inner suburban SN work - what they are designed to do as opposed to long distance non-stop work. They would actually be quite a good fit for London Bridge to Victoria, as opposed to Kings Cross to Kings Lynn.

This whole thread has effectively turned into a massive speculation thread, and is misleading quite a lot of people into believing it as a fact. Based on rumours from an account which was created three days ago.

What are SE replacing the Met Cams with? Seems a ton of carriages to go unless electrostars are the replacement?(I may have completely missed this being discussed)

By my calculations, a replacement is not necessarily needed. There are currently at most 107 class 465 diagrams for one day (Wednesday). Two of those are Ashford diagrams which could be covered by the existing electrostar fleet. That knocks down the diagram count to 105. Two diagrams can be covered by the two 707's yet to come from SWR. That knocks it down to 103. Three diagrams are stabling diagrams. We now have 100 diagrams to cover. On the weekdays with the lowest number of diagrams (Tuesday and Thursday - 100), that would leave 93 diagrams. There are 97 Hitachi 465's.

I think it just about might be possible to get away with withdrawing the whole Met-Cam fleet without replacement or cascading with some adjustments to the timetable, diagrams and train lengths - albeit at a very high utilisation rate. If the Met-Cam withdrawal rumour is true.

 

[bramling]

Look what I put above, if GN puts more 700s on the mainline (or uses the spare 717s) then it's doable. It's difficult to manage both MetCamm Networker retirement and increasing Southern services though.

There’s doable and there’s desirable. It does seem that we may be heading to the former but not the latter, so a very tight allocation of stock with no room for recovery / growth, or more crudely it seems like December may very well be a pile of brown stuff.

I think we are getting ahead of things in this thread though. Clearly stuff is going on behind the scenes, and even if there are plans now this doesn’t mean they will actually happen.

 

[ScotGG]

Can SE get away with timetable adjustments or reducing train lengths? Don't they serve some of the biggest areas of housing growth in the country? Places like Lewisham are seeing towers sprout up everywhere and many aren't even occupied yet.

 

[brad465]

There’s doable and there’s desirable. It does seem that we may be heading to the former but not the latter, so a very tight allocation of stock with no room for recovery / growth, or more crudely it seems like December may very well be a pile of brown stuff.

I think we are getting ahead of things in this thread though. Clearly stuff is going on behind the scenes, and even if there are plans now this doesn’t mean they will actually happen.

What's worth remembering is by December an election is very likely to have happened, which if as expected causes a change of government could change how much rolling stock each TOC here has, or else they suffer the bad press of even more overcrowding and disruption. I don't know how quickly they could change current plans, but it might be the difference between certain fleet proportions being permanently withdrawn and given an extension in service beyond what's currently planned. I expect a 379 move to GN though will be unaffected by the election.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The whole cascade thing is a rumour, which I would doubt to be true due to the sheer complexity and impractibility of it. There was an SN -> SE electrostar cascade once, and now some people seem to be hard-wired into thinking that 379's to GN must mean 387's to SN which must mean 377's to SE.

If 379's to GN materialises, we could see a few 387 units go south. I seriously doubt it would be a lot though. If Southern desperately needs capacity (spoiler: it doesn't), they can consider using the 700/0's freed up from outer suburban GN work on inner suburban SN work - what they are designed to do as opposed to long distance non-stop work. They would actually be quite a good fit for London Bridge to Victoria, as opposed to Kings Cross to Kings Lynn.

This whole thread has effectively turned into a massive speculation thread, and is misleading quite a lot of people into believing it as a fact. Based on rumours from an account which was created three days ago.

By my calculations, a replacement is not necessarily needed. There are currently at most 107 class 465 diagrams for one day (Wednesday). Two of those are Ashford diagrams which could be covered by the existing electrostar fleet. That knocks down the diagram count to 105. Two diagrams can be covered by the two 707's yet to come from SWR. That knocks it down to 103. Three diagrams are stabling diagrams. We now have 100 diagrams to cover. On the weekdays with the lowest number of diagrams (Tuesday and Thursday - 100), that would leave 93 diagrams. There are 97 Hitachi 465's.

I think it just about might be possible to get away with withdrawing the whole Met-Cam fleet without replacement or cascading with some adjustments to the timetable, diagrams and train lengths - albeit at a very high utilisation rate. If the Met-Cam withdrawal rumour is true.

If the Met-Cam withdrawal rumour is true - Can't see DafT agreeing to this 379's will cost more to lease although i suspect the new owner can tolerate a lower charge as no way they paid book cost for them without a lease. Then you have all the driver training costs along with rolling stock staff. Remembering also that the 387's are being equipped with ETCS currently at a not inconsiderable cost. Then you have Dec 24 ECML timetable rewrite. Risks a 2018 debacle again just before a general election if Sunak long stops to Jan 25.

An early April fool.

 

[bramling]

What's worth remembering is by December an election is very likely to have happened, which if as expected causes a change of government could change how much rolling stock each TOC here has, or else they suffer the bad press of even more overcrowding and disruption. I don't know how quickly they could change current plans, but it might be the difference between certain fleet proportions being permanently withdrawn and given an extension in service beyond what's currently planned. I expect a 379 move to GN though will be unaffected by the election.

I genuinely don’t believe a new government is going to make that much difference. All this is coming from the DFT, so is more civil service led. The new government isn’t going to care massively about railways as it just isn’t a big ticket thing, and on top of that they can afford to upset people as it will be five years til the next election. Unfortunately the damage was done when the Covid response was allowed to drag on indefinitely.

 

[MikeWM]

If Southern desperately needs capacity (spoiler: it doesn't), they can consider using the 700/0's freed up from outer suburban GN work on inner suburban SN work - what they are designed to do as opposed to long distance non-stop work. They would actually be quite a good fit for London Bridge to Victoria, as opposed to Kings Cross to Kings Lynn.

I have to agree with that. Putting my (negative) personal opinions about the passenger experience on the 700s aside for a second, they were designed the way they were for a reason, and that reason quite emphatically was *not* to run back-and-forth non-stop for 50 minutes between London and Cambridge.

 

[Class 800]

I have to agree with that. Putting my (negative) personal opinions about the passenger experience on the 700s aside for a second, they were designed the way they were for a reason, and that reason quite emphatically was *not* to run back-and-forth non-stop for 50 minutes between London and Cambridge.

Even traveling the short distance between Potters Bar to Finsbury Park / Kings Cross is much nicer on a 387 compared to a 700.

 

[WAB]

Soon there might be more as they begin the ETCS trials between Welwyn and Hitchin, given the 717s are already setup for this (on the NCL)?

I do think they should be aiming to either restore 4tph WGC to Moorgate all day, or at least 3tph, as the services can get very busy once they've arrived/departed New Barnet. Plus, 2tph may be putting people off travel as a 30 minute wait is far from a turn up and go frequency. Even 20 minutes wait is quite long, which is why 4tph could help stimulate growth again.

People at Oakleigh Park, New Southgate etc most likely avoid the train at off peak times, and certainly you can see that when Arsenal are at home, very few fans still use the trains as they once did. I assume they're going from Cockfosters instead. Weekend services are pretty abysmal in terms of frequency, and I'd sooner have 717s running longer distance more often to make more efficient use of the fleet than longer trains running half-hourly, and even hourly at times (and I don't just mean during engineering works).

Inside London, the Northern line, Piccadilly line and London Overground are far more attractive prospects. The idea of waiting half an hour for a train which is more likely to be delayed or cancelled is throughly unappealing.

 

[RacsoMoquette]

Is is still possible that Great Northern will take on the ex GA Class 379 EMUs? Is the introduction of the 379s still slated for the May 2024 timetable change? Which In turn will allow GN Class 387s to Southern strengthening Class 377s Is this speculation still liable to even occur?

 

[Fincra5]

Anything stored, will be joined by anything still in service. There will be no 465/2, 465/9 or 466 in use at the December timetable change.

Well there's no 465/2s in service anyway.

If the 379s do get leased by GTR, which isn't finalised yet, any cascade moves wouldn't displace the same amount of units from SN to SE.

 

[scrapthe503]

Well there's no 465/2s in service anyway.

If the 379s do get leased by GTR, which isn't finalised yet, any cascade moves wouldn't displace the same amount of units from SN to SE.

No, you are right. They won't replace like-for-like. But given Southern have suffered for a considerable period, and SWR are seemingly about to move into a further period of stock constraint, it seems Southeastern are 'overdue' for some being treated quite badly...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

No, you are right. They won't replace like-for-like. But given Southern have suffered for a considerable period, and SWR are seemingly about to move into a further period of stock constraint, it seems Southeastern are 'overdue' for some being treated quite badly...

The DfT aren't bothered by such sentiments. Fact is the Networkers are reasonably reliable but some examples are tatty but then the 376's are even worse but i believe they've agreed a modest tart up of those so along with the 707's they've had an upgrade!!

 

[scrapthe503]

Something did spring to mind earlier, as I was showering of all things. Wasn't there an absolutely mammoth document produced and put into the public domain that spoke of Southern running the Sutton Loop, Blackfriars only? There was then all the other services that would be changed and whatever the replacement Thameslink services would be, as well as across all of Southern and GN land.

Can anyone remember that?

 

[Fincra5]

No, you are right. They won't replace like-for-like. But given Southern have suffered for a considerable period, and SWR are seemingly about to move into a further period of stock constraint, it seems Southeastern are 'overdue' for some being treated quite badly...

I think SN have suffered the most by the DfT stock cuts. Losing all 313s and 455s close together. Whilst the Met-Cam networks might be problematic, at least SE have the stock!

There are plans afoot for stock/cascades but its always subject to change.

 

[Failed Unit]

Could the 350's play a part in providing enough stock for all parts of the network? I am another on that doesn't see anything wrong with the networkers that a refurbishment wouldn't cure. Mass cascades are high risk, when you have lost the good will of your staff. I suspect the main reason that GTR haven't restored Moorgate - Hertford / WGC to 15 minutes is more to do with that they can't reliably resource it rather then lack of demand. We have alll said we would rather have a service every 30 minutes we can rely on, then one that should run every 15 minutes but is frequently cancelled.

 

[scrapthe503]

Could the 350's play a part in providing enough stock for all parts of the network? I am another on that doesn't see anything wrong with the networkers that a refurbishment wouldn't cure. Mass cascades are high risk, when you have lost the good will of your staff. I suspect the main reason that GTR haven't restored Moorgate - Hertford / WGC to 15 minutes is more to do with that they can't reliably resource it rather then lack of demand. We have alll said we would rather have a service every 30 minutes we can rely on, then one that should run every 15 minutes but is frequently cancelled.

In fairness, one would potentially be inclined to suggest that 37 350/2s would be perfect on the GN if they could have a slight refurb, with a bit of extra luggage space for some of the longer-distance flows, and with First Class being available anyway. Oh, and they're Siemens, and Hornsey is a Siemens depot. Oh, again, and they can do 110 can't they?

But that is definitely speculative...