One thing to remember in terms of IETs replacing HSTs over a period of time is that the diagrams are very much NOT direct replacements. Just consider the impact of having major depots in entirely different locations, the fact that daytime HST stabling in London is no longer possible, etc. In the early stages of the transition the primary difficulty was constructing a small number of logical productive IET diagrams without destroying overall fleet productivity by cutting things up too much. Now, in the latter stages, the opposite problem is now dominant; constructing useful HST diagrams against a background of predominantly IET work. There is also the need to continue cycling HSTs through SPM and Laira, resulting in the reappearance of HSTs on Bristol and Swansea work (introducing new ‘inefficiencies’ and further changing 800 workings), the ever-evolving dates for IET shore-supply provision at key locations, the well-documented issues with planning attach/detach, platform length issues at Gloucester and Maidenhead, dialogue concerning DOO on Padd-Oxford fasts (thankfully resolved), the current DOO self-dispatch camera issues, driver training progress... the list goes on. Some of these issues develop / change almost daily, against which background the planners - who take Clarence Yard’s overall cascade plans and tweak & revise them as necessary - try to maintain some sense of sanity and stability.
Furthermore the LTP diagrams through certain periods have been done in ‘blocks’ - whereas many of the continual changes to requirements have been handled by the STP process. This is all still before the diagrams hit the operational reality of running a railway, control swaps for Hitachi maintenance requirements, plus anything else arising that the official plan couldn’t incorporate / wouldn’t touch (e.g. due to timescales) / overlooked.
All these things considered, I am astonished if the diagrammed miles are in the same ballpark as the actual miles. Combine this with the double-set / single-set miles vice single-set HST and I’m impressed that Modern Railways - as an independent (well informed) observer - can draw any meaningful conclusions whatsoever.