High speed rail on existing infrastructure post HS2 construction

[D365]

Take statements about 140mph on the ECML with a pinch of salt.
The ETCS upgrade, delivering in-cab signalling, should allow for higher speeds than now over the stretches where it is being implemented - as far as Grantham at the moment, though that's only about a third of the overall route.
But you'll find several threads on here listing the reasons why 140mph is not likely in the short term.
Notably, upgrades would be necessary to the track, structures, OHLE and power supply, plus the elimination of level crossings.
Running at 140mph also reduces the capacity to share the route with slower traffic (other TOCs and freight).

Correct - unfortunately these are key points that “RMTransit” seems to have missed. Rather like HS2, there seems to be too much excitement and emphasis placed on prospective headline speeds, rather than the real world business case for infrastructure upgrades.

 

[Arkeeos]

Isn't HS2 modelled on something like 2010 passenger numbers? Latest figures are already in advance of that.

HS2 was modelled on 2.5% yoy passenger growth, off the top of my head, which the railway has on average exceeded.

 

[The Ham]

Isn't HS2 modelled on something like 2010 passenger numbers? Latest figures are already in advance of that.

HS2 was modelled on 2.5% yoy passenger growth, off the top of my head, which the railway has on average exceeded.

Yes 2.5% growth each year from 2009, so for every 100 passengers in 2009 in 2024 there would need to be 145 (to put this in context in 2019 it had reached 170, so for HS2 to reach it's model you don't need to get back to pre COVID numbers).

 

[Fazaar1889]

Yes 2.5% growth each year from 2009, so for every 100 passengers in 2009 in 2024 there would need to be 145 (to put this in context in 2019 it had reached 170, so for HS2 to reach it's model you don't need to get back to pre COVID numbers).

Where are we current on the 2.5% growth curve? Are we higher than what has predicted for 2021? I'm 2019 we hit 170 sure but what about right now? Just curious.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I can't quote figures, but I doubt the WCML/Avanti revenue is anything like the 2019 level yet.
My perception is that, for various reasons, it has been one of the poorest performers in getting traffic back.
The drop in business traffic, which was the backbone of Virgin/Avanti services, is very serious.
Using national trends, and equating low margin leisure fares with peak business fares, isn't sensible.

HS2 design was based on running 18tph.
It's unlikely there will be more than half that in the planned Phase 1 state, ie the same 9tph as the existing WCML.
But there will be that much spare capacity Euston-Rugby and on to Birmingham and Lichfield

 

[Fazaar1889]

I can't quote figures, but I doubt the WCML/Avanti revenue is anything like the 2019 level yet.
My perception is that, for various reasons, it has been one of the poorest performers in getting traffic back.
The drop in business traffic, which was the backbone of Virgin/Avanti services, is very serious.
Using national trends, and equating low margin leisure fares with peak business fares, isn't sensible.

HS2 design was based on running 18tph.
It's unlikely there will be more than half that in the planned Phase 1 state, ie the same 9tph as the existing WCML.
But there will be that much spare capacity Euston-Rugby and on to Birmingham

Thanks

 

[The Ham]

Where are we current on the 2.5% growth curve? Are we higher than what has predicted for 2021? I'm 2019 we hit 170 sure but what about right now? Just curious.

The regional rail use is due an update in early February, the data for April 2021 to March 2022 (so at least 20 months or if date!) has London to the North West and West Midlands at just under 100.

The sightly better news was that London Scotland was at 148.

Although given Scottish was 2 million passengers vs 6.5 million for the Northwest and 7 million for the West Midlands, there's still a long way to go before all three get to 145.