I think it makes more sense to keep the Liverpools and Manchesters as the slower services. A significant part of the market from those cities is tourism, and Shotton and Flint aside, pretty much all stations along the coast are tourist destinations in some form.
Surely tourists want a fast journey too, and I would have thought that Wyddfa/Eryri (and therefore Bangor and/or Blaenau Ffestiniog) would be a more significant destination for the tourists than many of the other stations in north Wales?
West of Chester, I think the minimum pattern should be:
- 1tph Liverpool - Chester - Llandudno (all stops except between Runcorn and Liverpool where it would be as now)
- 1tph Chester - Holyhead calling at Flint, Rhyl, Llandudno Junction, Bangor and Holyhead only*
- 0.5tph Chester - Bangor calling at Shotton, Flint, Prestatyn, Rhyl, Colwyn Bay, Llandudno Jn, Conwy and Bangor (with a planned extension to Caernarfon)
- 0.5tph Chester - Bangor calling at Flint, Prestatyn, Rhyl, Colwyn Bay, Llandudno Jn, Conwy and Bangor (with a planned extension to Caernarfon)
- 1tph Llandudno Junction** - Holyhead all stops
- 0.5tph Llandudno - Blaenau Ffestiniog all stops
- 0.5tph Llandudno - Llandudno Junction all stops***
Or, to put it another way, everywhere (except the Blaenau branch) gets at least an hourly service; the Blaenau branch gets 0.5tph, the Llandudno branch, Conwy, Colwyn Bay, Holyhead and Prestatyn get 2tph, Shotton gets 1.5tph and (if I've got this right) Flint, Rhyl, Llandudno Junction and Bangor get 3tph.
* my idea is that this path would, three times a day, be taken up by the three Cardiff-Holyhead expresses (with the other calls being Wrexham General, Shrewsbury, Hereford (maybe) and Newport only) - the other hours would either run to Manchester**** or Crewe/Birmingham/London*****
** this should not actually start/terminate at Llandudno Junction, but could be any of the following:
- a portion off the Chester-Llandudno stopper every hour
- an hourly Llandudno-Holyhead service that runs by itself
- as item 2 above but running as a portion with the Conwy valley unit every two hours
*** not needed if a Llandudno-Holyhead service provides this service under the above provisions
**** With the issue of the Castlefield corridor partly in-mind, I would replace the current Northern Leeds-Chester and TfW Manchester-Llandudno services with an hourly Northern Manchester Airport to Chester service (calling at all or most stations using 195s) and a fast TfW from Stalybridge calling at Manchester Victoria, Newton-le-Willows, Warrington BQ and Chester only (operated by 175s or similar). This fast TfW from Manchester could be either the fast to Holyhead (in the hours the Cardiff express doesn't run) or the semi-fast to Bangor/Caernarfon (every hour)
***** Birmingham or London would presumably have to be post-HS2, and would be via (those in a hurry to get to London would change at Crewe, any through running beyond Birmingham would be so that Wolverhampton-Euston and Bangor/Holyhead-Birmingham through services can both be provided using a single train/path between Wolverhampton and New Street instead of two)
The hourly 197-operated TfW Liverpool-Llandudno service would call at Frodsham and Helsby half an hour ahead/behind the Northern stopper to/from Manchester, giving those two stations a half-hourly service to Chester.
Post HS2 it is worth giving consideration to terminating the service from Cardiff etc at Chester, and replacing it with a service from Holyhead to Birmingham International via Stafford as used to run, or somehow portion working both. It can't be pathed now, though.
It's only Wolverhampton to Birmingham that supposedly couldn't be pathed now isn't it? I would replace most of the Cardiff-Holyhead trips with Cardiff-Chester and Crewe-Holyhead now, without waiting for HS2, leaving just the three expresses each way which shouldn't be trying to fit into the standard pattern with the Holyhead-Birmingham runs anyway.
QUOTE="507020, post: 5952231, member: 84876"]If there are to be Bangor terminating services, could these potentially be extended to Llanberis/Afon Wen subject to reopening?
Not until you find a way of getting through Caernarfon.[/QUOTE]My interpretation of what I'm seeing on Google Earth is that getting a single line through Caernarfon isn't a major problem - there's no buildings that look like they need demolishing just some car parks to be messed around with to allow the line to run through said car parks. Once you get to the Welsh Highland railway, run alongside it if possible and mix the guage otherwise. The Welsh Highland already has interaction with the Cambrian Coast ETCS at the flat crossing near Porthmadog which shows that safety issues can be dealt with.
The bigger issues in my mind are where to put the National Rail station in Caernarfon (the big car park it could possibly be built on is a fair walk from things like the castle and bus station) and whether a new rail route would be time competitive. Unless the intended destination is Pwllheli, Afon Wen seems like a distraction to me - if you want to link up with the Cambrian Coast Line towards Harlech and Machynlleth a brand new more direct alignment is needed south of Bryncir.
Why not? TfW only have MK4s as they didn't have enough 197s.
The original plan was to have DMUs on both services
TfW have always planned to have mark 4s on the Holyhead-Cardiff express services (three trains per day). Yes the fleet plan has changed from 3 sets to 8 (coupled with the new plan to use them to Manchester) but they were always in the plan for the north Wales coast as the successor to 'Gerald'.