I take it you’ve read the (excellent) London reconnections article on the subject? They conclude as follows:
The leading source for independent news and analysis about transport in London and beyond. Award-winning coverage of transport infrastructure and politics alongside stories about the history of the Capital's transport networks.
www.londonreconnections.com
Which I think sums things up pretty well.
They don’t really consider the Bakerloo going that way but (off the top of my head) intermediate stations at Catford (and presumably Hither Green?) would be extremely expensive and would be catering for areas which are already pretty well served by both mid Kent and the Catford Loop line, and the SEML (Hither Green) the only place that would really benefit would indeed be Bromley North itself. Much cheaper (and more cost effective) to simply convert the Mid Kent line into the tube route, which would also benefit the Catford/Hither Green catchment area.
The extension of London Overground from New Cross is an interesting idea - and seems more workable on the face of it - but as always capacity limits on the south eastern mainline, needing to move the trains across the fasts with little room to build any kind of grade separated junction with Hither Green and GPK depots also in the way.
I reckon if we were able to travel thirty years forward in time we’d find the Bakerloo line hasn’t been extended to Hayes, and the Bromley North shuttle is pretty much exactly as it is today, sadly!
That seems a fair summary - I like their explanations for things, very good at explaining the problems/ solutions/ alternatives
This is what could be seen as largely the main premise of Beeching's arguments for the mass railway decimation of the 1960s! (And I must add, a premise that has proved to be largely fallacious in terms of services and income etc. Cutting off these will injure the main railway network.)
Cutting of branches will "injure" the main railway network, sure
But it'd be a mild graze, in the grand scheme of things
If there were only a handful of people using a branch line then cutting the branch will impact upon main line passenger numbers but not by a great deal if there were only a handful of people on the branch line
A quite longstanding one was the Maiden Newton to Bridport line. This was crewed, and indeed operated, from the nearest Western Region depot, at ... Westbury, 45 miles and well over an hour's travel each way away. Crews spent half their shift travelling to and fro on the cushions, plus the single car had to return there for refuelling
That kind of cost is one that people don't always appreciate about some rural lines (given the need for either tiny depots in remote areas or very long/inefficient ECS moves etc)
We all have constructed names and even money among many other things is a construct, a make-believe. None of us know what the truth is or what reality is even.
So if a branch line doesn't bring in much money, the correct response should be that money is a made up concept and that there's no way of knowing what a "profit" or "loss" is since these are abstract ideas with no grounding in reality (whatever "reality" even means)
Even more dodgy cost accounting- St Andrews to Leuchars
That's a tricky one... I can see why it was closed at the time - I can see why it could be very busy at certain times today - but I don't know what kind of service you'd run on it (given that there's nothing that terminates at Leuchars, so any Edinburgh service diverted to St Andrews would be at the cost of some through trains from Edinburgh to Dundee) - if it'd just be a shuttle and going no further into St Andrews than the old train station site adjacent to the bus station then would it really offer much that the frequent bus service doesn't? (given that the bus service continues beyond the bus station to serve a lot of the rest of St Andrews)
But there are some Student/ tourist flows that will be significant at certain times, so it's a lot more interesting as an idea than some of the rural villages that are regularly brought up on re-opening threads
That's an interesting article, thanks for the link, and it does seem to me that if the line to Hunstanton, like those to Swanage, Keswick and Caernarvon, had survived a little longer we might still have them today. But making a profit ? I cannot see any way that fare income from such a route could have covered all its costs; Track maintenance and renewal, signalling ditto, structures ditto, train and traincrew costs, etc, without subsidy; And if it was truly making a profit, why on earth was BR so determined to close it ?
A lot of people seem to think of profit/loss in terms of "farebox revenue" and "the wages of the staff on the train at the time" without understanding the additional costs that you mention
I've no idea how profitable lines were in the 1960s but I cannot believe that there were many genuinely profitable lines on the network (given the staffing required/ maintenance and renewal costs/ cost of the trains themselves) yet alone genuinely profitable lines that were closed
didnt BR use 'originating revenue' to decide a lines income? dodgy accounting cos holiday areas would have little originating revenue but many passengers would go there with return tickets.
It's not dodgy at all - it shows where people buy tickets
For example, if the stations on branch line to Town X generate very few ticket sales then closing the line means that people from cities may travel to Town Y or Town Z instead as alternative holiday destinations
What's the alternative? That we allocate revenue equally between the "origin" and "destination" stations? In which case the numbers for a lot of branches would look poor because the "city" station would take half the money (e.g. if you decide that half the money of an Ebbw Vale - Cardiff return bought at Ebbw Vale station should be allocated to Cardiff then you'll find that Ebbw Vale brings in a lot less money - since very few Cardiff people will be commuting to Ebbw Vale or shopping there, whereas Cardiff is a popular destination for the people of Ebbw Vale)... be careful what you wish for!