But it always used to be the case that to declare a FM or whatever you want to call it, it had to be a void day so that season ticket holders got extra days on their tickets.
But if the rest of the year has been ok as far as delays are concerned, they may not want to declare it as a FM, as they still not trigger the PPM.
Sorry, but that's just a misconception on your part. There is and was no direct link. It is true that FM might have been given for the same reason that a void day was declared, but FM being given did not mean that a void day would be declared, nor did a void day being declared mean the disruption was covered by FM.
Void days hark back to Passenger's Charter ST compensation, based on time to 5/10 during the peaks only, and the reason for declaring void days was so that you didn't trigger the Charter 5% discount on Seasons. These days (i.e. in recent franchises) compensation takes the form of Delay/Repay on everything, so there's no point in declaring void days.
That said, FCC are distributing "vouchers" to Season Ticket holders as additional compensation for the recent disruption caused by driver (in)action.
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But if its spread out and the delay happens towards the end of the journey, the statistic fiddling won't work!
The idea of spead out padding is that the train has time to catch up on route. It's very wasteful, but it does inject a high degree of reliability. Sure it won't cover major delays, but it covers the small, regular delays that add up.
When these changes are made there's quite a lot of detailed work done to see where the time should be added. Maybe they get it wrong sometimes, but they certainly don't want to add too much time as it usually costs the TOCs money under the Schedule 8 Performance Regime.
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Thats an issue with their station dwell times during the peak then, they should be looking at increaing peak time dwells and reducing the recovery time at the end of the schedule.
It may well indicate a difference between the working timetable and the public timetable. IOW they expect to get in earlier but quote a later time to the public.