How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Class 33]

The longer this "Social distancing" nonsense goes on for, the more and more damage it will continue to do to the UK economy! There's more and more people being made redundant every week, more and more businesses having to close down, and if you're one of the unlucky and growing number of people who are unemployed then it's close to ZERO chance of finding another job. That's just a shortened comment on all the problems this ongoing social distance will cause. This madness can not go on much longer!

However, answering the question of the thread. From what I've seen on the news and the government daily briefings, it appears the government has no plans to scrap social distancing any time soon! As you will be aware, it's been announced that schools will return in September with no social distancing, but with complications to how they will operate, including "bubbles" and staggered break and lunch times, etc. So it's obvious that the government has no plans to scrap social distancing nationwide in September or sometime soon after that. The gist I get is that they intend to continue with this social distancing nonsense until at least NEXT SUMMER!!! Chris Whitty has said a number of times "Social distancing is here to stay now.". God forbid if that happens. Someone else in government(can't remember who) has said "Social distancing is here for many many months now.". And I think it will indeed be many many months that we'll have to put up with this nonsense and the catastrophic effects it will have on the economy and our lives.

What do you think about this?

 

[duncanp]

People are already ignoring it, in places like Bournemouth Beach, the London Underground, supermarkets (once you are inside) and all the protests that have been going on.

No doubt some people will also ignore it when the pubs re-open in England this weekend.

I think observance of social distancing will gradually decrease as time goes on to the point where it will be scrapped, rather like the "quarantine" rules on overseas travel.

 

[DB]

It's the main plank of the tokenism which is intended to show that they have a plan - when really they don't, and unless a vaccine appears this nonsense looks set to carry on indefinitely - or until a sufficient number of people get so sick of it that they refuse to co-operate: a few thousand and the government can take punitive measures against them, but if it becomes hundreds of thousands it becomes impossible.

The government did such an effective job of terrifying people back in March and April that they've dug themselves into a hole, where if they back down now they will have the locktivists (including some of the more hysterical national papers) baying at the moon! And seemingly they are more afraid of this than they are of trashing the economy.

 

[MikeWM]

I'd expect until around next Easter, unfortunately. (Same with masks on trains, alas). Before then people will be continually panicing about the 'upcoming' 'second wave'.

 

[bramling]

The longer this "Social distancing" nonsense goes on for, the more and more damage it will continue to do to the UK economy! There's more and more people being made redundant every week, more and more businesses having to close down, and if you're one of the unlucky and growing number of people who are unemployed then it's close to ZERO chance of finding another job. That's just a shortened comment on all the problems this ongoing social distance will cause. This madness can not go on much longer!

However, answering the question of the thread. From what I've seen on the news and the government daily briefings, it appears the government has no plans to scrap social distancing any time soon! As you will be aware, it's been announced that schools will return in September with no social distancing, but with complications to how they will operate, including "bubbles" and staggered break and lunch times, etc. So it's obvious that the government has no plans to scrap social distancing nationwide in September or sometime soon after that. The gist I get is that they intend to continue with this social distancing nonsense until at least NEXT SUMMER!!! Chris Whitty has said a number of times "Social distancing is here to stay now.". God forbid if that happens. Someone else in government(can't remember who) has said "Social distancing is here for many many months now.". And I think it will indeed be many many months that we'll have to put up with this nonsense and the catastrophic effects it will have on the economy and our lives.

What do you think about this?

I think it's here for a while. Personally I don't mind elements of it, however as usual it's been taken too far by elements of the population for various reasons, and now by the political establishment for political reasons. The fact that some people introduce a heavy dose of emotion into the issue (think - "save the NHS") means I don't think it's going to go away, though naturally over time elements will be ignored.

Ultimately I think there's going to be bigger issues in the meantime though. Things will turn really nasty once the job losses start to bite (we're starting to see a taste of that already, and sadly this is probably just the tip of the iceburg), and likewise we have a Prime Minister and government who know there is a very high likelihood that they have been fatally wounded, therefore anything is worth a punt if it helps their survival prospects. So we're into the territory of doing what might be *seen* to be doing *something*, rather than sensible decisions. Of course if things turn ugly as a result of job losses then Boris may see things through a different perspective, but at present I think they're desperate to overshadow things like the care homes fiasco.

 

[Huntergreed]

I'd expect until around next Easter, unfortunately. (Same with masks on trains, alas). Before then people will be continually panicing about the 'upcoming' 'second wave'.

Problem is that people are going to keep worrying about a 'second wave' until we drop the fear-mongering through announcing lockdowns, daily deaths, mandating masks etc.

If there isn't one, people are going to live in constant fear that there is going to be one. If there is one, people are going to live in constant fear of a 'third wave' (and if there is one, a 'fourth wave' and so on...)

There really isn't a good way out of this unless we try to calm the locktivists down, which I imagine is extremely difficult given how we've spent 3 and a half months deliberately overstating risks so they will comply with the lockdown.

The government thought that people wouldn't comply readily enough, in actual fact the opposite was true and people were and still are too willing to live under restrictions for years to come.

Personally, I can't see how economically viable it is beyond a few more months, however I think it's very clear that the government are planning on it being a long term solution (at least a year), which will in itself cause untold damage to the economy and livelihoods.

 

[HSTEd]

Indefinitely.

The government made its play, it could have chosen Sweden or it could have chosen the lockdown model.
It chose the lockdown model - which inherently has no exit strategy.

 

[Class 33]

When I go for walks to go shopping or just go out for a walk, having to frequently "socially distance" and swerve to be about 2 metres away from any passing people, it reminds me of playing old video games from the 80's and 90's having to avoid the aliens, monsters, or whatever! I've taken some different routes, gone into different zones to add some variety. But I'm just well and truly bored of this game now! It's very tedious! It's just the same old thing. I've played it to death now!

 

[waytogo]

Agree 100% this nonsense must stop now. It’s just a big case of we have to be seen to be doing something.

 

[Bletchleyite]

My prediction would be "until there's a vaccine". If it becomes clear there won't be, then I'm not sure what will happen.

 

[yorkie]

It will only occur in enforced settings, it won't happen for much longer (if it even still is) in most of our interactions.

People will not stop living their lives indefinitely; for example if we are not allowed to officially play football for many months (which I don't believe for one moment) people will just do it anyway.

I've posted on another thread about the dangers of restricting people too much; those who want to ban things are effectively asking the police to do an impossible job. See: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...w-how-people-are-behaving.205822/post-4641882

 

[Bletchleyite]

FWIW the online message from the Government is becoming increasingly clear that the only legal restriction on distancing will be "no more than 30" from Saturday with the others being guidance. Which means that will be totally ignored.

It also means pubs will lose more business, because why pick 6 of your friends to go to a locked down pub when you can have them all in your back garden? Against advice, yes, but no longer illegal from Saturday, it seems.

 

[Bishopstone]

Assuming we don’t get a nasty second peak, I think the social distancing malarkey will be over by October, in substance.

Feel free to come back and laugh at me if you’re still queuing in the snow at Tesco for your Christmas turkey in 2023.

As the long tail of infections and deaths withers, then people, businesses and government will re-run their cost-benefit analyses. Patience and money will be exhausted, and we will return to our lives as social animals.

 

[DB]

FWIW the online message from the Government is becoming increasingly clear that the only legal restriction on distancing will be "no more than 30" from Saturday with the others being guidance. Which means that will be totally ignored.

It also means pubs will lose more business, because why pick 6 of your friends to go to a locked down pub when you can have them all in your back garden? Against advice, yes, but no longer illegal from Saturday, it seems.

I think the advice about visitors is largely being ignored anyway - many people seem to be having visitors round (including inside the house) pretty much as they normally would.

 

[yorkie]

Hopefully legalising gatherings of those sizes and allowing pubs etc will reduce the number of large illegal gatherings that have caused huge problems to police (and even cost some people their lives); driving everything underground isn't the solution

So it will be legal to play a game of football from this weekend but not officially recommended? So I guess we can play in a park but not hire a pitch?

I don't think social distancing is that important outside compared to inside either.

 

[Enthusiast]

a few thousand and the government can take punitive measures against them

Under what legislation would that be, then?

 

[Andyh82]

For every person who is ignoring the rules and for every person who wants the social distancing stopping, there are of course the complete opposite who want everyone back in lockdown.

If the government did remove it, all we would here from every opinion in the media would be ‘second wave’, ‘reductions too soon’ etc etc so they basically can’t win

 

[Ianno87]

My prediction would be "until there's a vaccine". If it becomes clear there won't be, then I'm not sure what will happen.

People will just give up caring by that point.

 

[DB]

Under what legislation would that be, then?

Whatever they dream up and enact - we know they will do it if they can get away with it and it suits their purpose; they already have done to an extent.

 

[philosopher]

My prediction would be "until there's a vaccine". If it becomes clear there won't be, then I'm not sure what will happen.

I reckon it will remain until a few months after a vaccine has been approved. Even once a vaccine has been approved, it is going to take a few months to vaccinate enough people for there to be herd immunity. The best case situation is that a vaccine becomes available by the end of the year, meaning social distancing continues until next Spring.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I reckon it will remain until a few months after a vaccine has been approved. Even once a vaccine has been approved, it is going to take a few months to vaccinate enough people for there to be herd immunity. The best case situation is that a vaccine becomes available by the end of the year, meaning social distancing continues until next Spring.

Yes, for clarity I meant "until enough people have been administered a vaccine for herd immunity to be in place". I think you're probably about right on the timescale.

 

[DB]

Yes, for clarity I meant "until enough people have been administered a vaccine for herd immunity to be in place". I think you're probably about right on the timescale.

Not sure how you can possibly say that, given that no vaccine is yet available, and no vaccination programme on this scale has ever been attempted before.

 

[philosopher]

Not sure how you can possibly say that, given that no vaccine is yet available, and no vaccination programme on this scale has ever been attempted before.

They already manufacturing vaccines on the assumption they will work, so this should give any vaccination programme a head start

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not sure how you can possibly say that, given that no vaccine is yet available, and no vaccination programme on this scale has ever been attempted before.

I can say it because I just did, and it's what I believe will be the case even if it's 2-3 years. Only if it becomes clear that no vaccine is possible do I think it will be removed entirely.

What they are clearly doing is loosening as far as they can without R>1 and playing "whack a mole" in the meantime.

 

[APT618S]

With regard to a vaccine there may be a long wait as there is still no safe vaccine for SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) which appeared in 2002 or for MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) which appeared in 2012.

 

[yorkie]

With regard to a vaccine there may be a long wait as there is still no safe vaccine for SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) which appeared in 2002 or for MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) which appeared in 2012.

Let's discuss vaccines in a different thread please

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's a bit like the instruction for everyone to carry gas masks in WW2, in case of a gas attack by air which I don't think ever happened.
This rule was removed at some point during the war, but I'm not sure how they made the decision to drop it.
Social distancing will probably enter folk lore as what we did in 2020.
Film-makers will be showing people swerving to avoid each other to demonstrate attention to period detail, like they show everybody carrying gas masks in the blitz!

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

I'm pleased that someone's started a thread on this - quite frankly social distancing is preventing me from using public transport for now as well as the face mask requirement.

I appreciate that people are eager to get away on holiday (me included) but I'd rather not feel like I'm in a health zone - I'd rather feel as though I'm in a free zone if that makes sense.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

My guess is that the social distancing nonsense will break down naturally once people see that the reduction to 1 metre and the reopening of the hospitality industry has no effect on the continually falling death and new infection rates.

Yes some people will continue to be scared for the rest of their lives but the vast majority of us will soon realise that a life lived in fear is no life at all.

 

[Class 33]

I'm pleased that someone's started a thread on this - quite frankly social distancing is preventing me from using public transport for now as well as the face mask requirement.

I appreciate that people are eager to get away on holiday (me included) but I'd rather not feel like I'm in a health zone - I'd rather feel as though I'm in a free zone if that makes sense.

Indeed the transport network and people using it, can't really get back to normal whilst this social distancing is still going on. To accommodate social distancing, on single decker buses only about 10 seats are available to use and on double deckers only about 20 seats are available to use! It's insane if it carries on like this for months on end! And what about in September when the schools go back and a load of kids going to school and back, take up all the seats!

And yes having to wear a mask on trains, coaches and buses is not exactly very pleasant! Many people would not be keen on going on journeys of a couple of hours or more and having to wear masks!

Sooner all this insane nonsense is over, the better.