Parliament has been seriously misled by “fiddled” figures about the true cost of
HS2, according to the deputy chairman of a review into the project.
In November, Lord Berkeley demanded his name be
removed from the review, commissioned by the government, after a leak of its conclusions suggested the line should be built in full.
He has now published his own dissenting assessment, claiming the
cost of the line is “completely out of control”. It also concludes HS2 would not benefit the north and the Midlands as ministers have promised.
Speaking to Sky News, Berkeley said the directors of HS2 had “fiddled the figures” to overstate the benefits of the project and minimise the costs. He said the project assumes 18 trains will run on the line every hour, four more than is allowed on high-speed lines in other parts of the world. “The revenue [assumption] is all shot to pieces,” Berkeley said
Berkeley said that while economic modelling by HS2 Ltd had arrived at a conclusion that the benefits of the project would be more than twice its costs, his best estimate was of a benefits-to-costs ratio of less than one, and possibly as low as 0.6, making it “poor value for money”.
He also said plans to build HS2, compared with improving existing lines, were not good for the environment.
Berkeley added: “The real problem is that railways in the regions, in particular the north and the Midlands, are really bad and it is them that need investment for local commuters.
“Getting to London is secondary for most people except for MPs and the managing directors of companies. So attracting business to these areas will be done by improving the commuter services dramatically to make them look more like London services, which are on the whole very good."
