HS2 Review ongoing

[Mag_seven]

It looks like Lord Berkeley has broken ranks with the official review (he was deputy chair) and published his own report:

There is "overwhelming evidence" that the costs of HS2 are "out of control" and its benefits overstated, the deputy chair of its review panel has said.

Lord Berkeley said the high-speed rail line, linking London and northern England, is likely to cost over £108bn.

A vocal critic of HS2, the Labour peer said he believed MPs had been "misled" about the price - set at £55bn in 2015.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50995116

 

[si404]

Given he's a vocal critic, is this intervention anyway meaningful other than saying that he remains unconvinced.

 

[ExRes]

Given he's a vocal critic, is this intervention anyway meaningful other than saying that he remains unconvinced.

Of course it's meaningful, at least he's seen the figures unlike those of us on this forum. There has obviously been a lot of economy with the truth over the costs of HS2 and just because this is a railway forum it doesn't mean that HS2 should be treated preferentially to any other project that involves cost to the taxpayers, if Lord Berkeley is telling things as they really are then Government should take notice and the taxpayers should have the right to know how and where their money is being invested/wasted

 

[PR1Berske]

Given he's a vocal critic, is this intervention anyway meaningful other than saying that he remains unconvinced.

If a vocal supporter of HS2 says they're in favour, that's to be expected.
If a vocal critic says they're against, that's to be expected.

I'm interested in his contribution because it underlines very valid concerns that the budget is out of control. I've asked on this forum numerous times if there is an upper limit to the budget amongst the supporters and in some cases there appears not to be. Personally that is a concern of mine.

 

[squizzler]

It looks like Lord Berkeley has broken ranks with the official review (he was deputy chair) and published his own report:

From the BBC piece linked to:

He has published a "dissenting report" on the project, but the government said it represented his personal view.

"Dissenting report" indeed. Somewhat reminiscent of your dad trying to be 'down with the kids' by using the trendy lingo of "fake news", "alternative facts" and so forth.

 

[Camden]

Anyone got a link to the actual report?

 

[Taunton]

According to the Times, the draft report also says that "large ticket price rises" would be needed if HS2 does not go ahead, to prevent excessive demand for travel at peak times.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50995116

How ludicrous, and what a scare story. Travelling out of London in the peaks (as I do) one can find First Class which is pretty much empty stock, 5-car Voyagers running Euston-Birmingham services, trains incapable of 125mph allowed on the fast lines eating up paths, etc.

Part of the reason why Euston concourse is so overcrowded nowadays is a fare structure which makes it prohibitively expensive to miss your booked train, so people get there way in advance of when they did when this did not apply. How stupid to have an franchise commitment for an every 20 minutes "turn up and go" Birmingham service, and then a fare structure which actively prevents "turn up and go".

 

[Ianno87]

If a

I'm interested in his contribution because it underlines very valid concerns that the budget is out of control. I've asked on this forum numerous times if there is an upper limit to the budget amongst the supporters and in some cases there appears not to be. Personally that is a concern of mine.

There's simply no straightforward answer to that question.

-How much scope (and thus benefits) are you getting for that budget? What train service do you end up with? Part of the reason the estimated costs have risen is through gaining a much better understanding of the actual scope needed to deliver the HS2 train service. Far better up front now rather than ending up in a Crossrail-style situation.
-How could the capital spend be spread as far as possible to make it affordable? It is not, and will never be, £80-100bn (or whatever) spent in one go.

My interest is advancing the principle of a High Speed Rail network. It *will* be expensive, but if money needs to be spent to get the best possible service benefits** from it, to fullfil an actual rail network strategic need, to a large so be it - spreading the spend over more years if necessary. And every single bit of scope is absolutely justified in what it delivers.

We've one chance to do this right - lets do it properly rather than build in excessive compromises.

**Example: Terminating HS2 at Old Oak Common (rather than Euston) might save money on paper, but gives a very compromised version of HS2 that we'd be stuck with forever.

 

[nlogax]

Anyone got a link to the actual report?

Looked but can't find one yet. Apparently it first went to the PM and has been leaked to the media.

 

[NSEFAN]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50995116

How ludicrous, and what a scare story. Travelling out of London in the peaks (as I do) one can find First Class which is pretty much empty stock, 5-car Voyagers running Euston-Birmingham services, trains incapable of 125mph allowed on the fast lines eating up paths, etc.

Part of the reason why Euston concourse is so overcrowded nowadays is a fare structure which makes it prohibitively expensive to miss your booked train, so people get there way in advance of when they did when this did not apply. How stupid to have an franchise commitment for an every 20 minutes "turn up and go" Birmingham service, and then a fare structure which actively prevents "turn up and go".

Pricing people off the railway when trains are crowded is a standard practice since BR days. If demand continues to increase overall then surely the use of this technique will only increase as well, if there is to be no significant increase in service capacity?

Crowding at Euston is a problem which needs solving. A full rebuild of the station as part of HS2 would have been nice. In the mean time, I'm not sure why the ramps cannot be used for queueing of passengers, or perhaps allowing passengers onto the platforms and keeping the train doors locked whilst cleaning takes place.

Would slowing all trains down to 110mph not actually increase capacity, as you can squeeze the trains closer together?

 

[Robertj21a]

Surely, the key concern over HS2 (regardless of ever increasing costs) is that, despite reassurances and waffle, the main supporters are still just those travelling/commuting to London. It rarely gets much media coverage identifying just how it will really help the Midlands/North - if indeed it ever will.
There will be many who gain nothing whatsoever from HS2, but would have gained an enormous amount from a proper high speed railway between the northern cities.

 

[Camden]

Looked but can't find one yet. Apparently it first went to the PM and has been leaked to the media.

Ok. Not much to talk about really until we can see it for ourselves.

Hopefully there will be a few former directors sweating right now.

 

[Bald Rick]

Looked but can't find one yet. Apparently it first went to the PM and has been leaked to the media.

Probably leaked by the noble Lord himself. He does have form form doing that.

 

[Camden]

I haven't seen the word "leaked" anywhere in relation to this report, only "released" hence my asking if anyone has the link.

It's his report, so he doesn't have to leak anything.

It's not uncommon for report publishers to allow media and interested parties to have first glance before being released to the public. If nothing else, it provides fair warning and a fair opportunity to ask for injunctions. If anyone feels they can justify that.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

Probably leaked by the noble Lord himself. He does have form form doing that.

He's perfectly entitled to do that as he has made no secret of the fact that he disagreed with the official report and asked that his name be removed from it.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...ogue-report-claims/ar-BBYCwvy?ocid=spartandhp

 

[ABB125]

StopHS2 claim they will be publishing the report on their website

 

[Neen Sollars]

I am very much against HS2 phase 1 being built London to Birmingham. I really cannot see the Prime Minister signing it off given the lack of cost guarantees. Economically for me it just transfers more wealth to the South East and is not redistributional and goes against the new Govts stated policy. As previously stated I would like to see more platforms at Euston and the link to OOC completed, open up OOC to South Ruislip. Run longer trains. Stop running two car units into London. If HS2 is to be built it should be built from Bham Curzon St and Bham International northwards to link with Northern Powerhouse east west Line. East West Rail stage 2 (Bicester to Bedford) should start this year, along with HS2 phase 1 North. This plan gives immediate infrastructure construction and allows time to plan, and nail down cost issues for the additional projects.

 

[AndrewE]

Looked but can't find one yet. Apparently it first went to the PM and has been leaked to the media.

I haven't seen the word "leaked" anywhere in relation to this report, only "released" hence my asking if anyone has the link. It's his report, so he doesn't have to leak anything.
It's not uncommon for report publishers to allow media and interested parties to have first glance before being released to the public. If nothing else, it provides fair warning and a fair opportunity to ask for injunctions. If anyone feels they can justify that.

He's perfectly entitled to do that as he has made no secret of the fact that he disagreed with the official report and asked that his name be removed from it.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...ogue-report-claims/ar-BBYCwvy?ocid=spartandhp

When a report "went to the PM" and selected parts of it are being unattributably shared with the media (presumably by someone in No. 10) you can be certain that those doing the sharing are being partial/partisan in what they pass on, even if they are not creating the coverage they want by re-phrasing it. When (if) the whole thing is published we shall see whether it stands up to scrutiny or not. Until then you have to question the motives of the people doing the "selective releasing."

 

[Camden]

When a report "went to the PM" and selected parts of it are being unattributably shared with the media (presumably by someone in No. 10) you can be certain that those doing the sharing are being partial/partisan in what they pass on, even if they are not creating the coverage they want by re-phrasing it. When (if) the whole thing is published we shall see whether it stands up to scrutiny or not. Until then you have to question the motives of the people doing the "selective releasing."

"Selective releasing" is also not a phrase that has accompanied the story, just "released".

Given it was accompanied by an editorial by the man himself in the Telegraph, and statements from various quarters saying they have received the report, I think you can be assured it was released and not leaked.

I doubt that "No10" would want to say too much about any of this at the moment. The report may prove useful to them. Or at least, they may need to keep "their options" open to avoid being dragged into a quaqmire of someone else's making.

 

[Camden]

StopHS2 claim they will be publishing the report on their website

Excellent, I'll keep an eye out

 

[Camden]

Incidentally, I see the Osborne led, tellingly Liverpoolless, "Northern Powerhouse 'Partnership'" has been quick with condemnation.

If he's not happy, that's a good sign of its potential contents in my book.

 

[The Ham]

If a vocal supporter of HS2 says they're in favour, that's to be expected.
If a vocal critic says they're against, that's to be expected.

I'm interested in his contribution because it underlines very valid concerns that the budget is out of control. I've asked on this forum numerous times if there is an upper limit to the budget amongst the supporters and in some cases there appears not to be. Personally that is a concern of mine.

An increase of costs isn't linear compared to the benefits.

As the infrastructure costs increase the income from the trains stay the same, in doing so they are linear.

However the extra costs of running trains for 1 extra person is virtually zero, however the extra income is almost all of the extra ticket cost.

Therefore if you double the costs you don't need to double the number of extra passengers to still result in the same total benefits when related to the costs.

It's why I keep coming back to the point that rail passengers are above the level which they should be to be on track to meet the required passenger numbers to justify the costs.

Now on the original requirements were for circa 100 million passengers a year.

Starting with the base level of 31 million passengers between London and the regions which benefit from HS2 in 2009 and assuming that 1/3 of those passengers and that 40% of HS2 passengers start/end in London, that gives us a baseline of 20 million passengers from London and 50 million overall. (This corolates with the expected doubling of passenger numbers).

Now by 2018 the growth model had assumed that (using 2.5% growth each year) that there would have been 24.9% growth. As can be seen from the table below that this growth had been 49% across all regions.

View media item 3340
That means that if we saw 2.5% growth from now until 2037 (bearing in mind that Virgin had recently seen 3.5% growth, so isn't unreasonable) then rather than having 100 million passengers we'd see 120 million passengers.

To carry that many passengers wouldn't need any extra infrastructure or any extra staff, however there's 20 million extra passengers each year. If we assume that the average ticket is £40 for each of those passengers that's £800 million. Even at an extra £50bn that's enough income to cover interest payments of 1.6%, however the UK bond rate is half that at just under 0.75%.

 

[The Ham]

I am very much against HS2 phase 1 being built London to Birmingham. I really cannot see the Prime Minister signing it off given the lack of cost guarantees. Economically for me it just transfers more wealth to the South East and is not redistributional and goes against the new Govts stated policy. As previously stated I would like to see more platforms at Euston and the link to OOC completed, open up OOC to South Ruislip. Run longer trains. Stop running two car units into London. If HS2 is to be built it should be built from Bham Curzon St and Bham International northwards to link with Northern Powerhouse east west Line. East West Rail stage 2 (Bicester to Bedford) should start this year, along with HS2 phase 1 North. This plan gives immediate infrastructure construction and allows time to plan, and nail down cost issues for the additional projects.

How many 2 coach trains run into London and from where?

 

[WatcherZero]

Incidentally, I see the Osborne led, tellingly Liverpoolless, "Northern Powerhouse 'Partnership'" has been quick with condemnation.

If he's not happy, that's a good sign of its potential contents in my book.

Joe Anderson was on it, he quit a year ago ironically enough in protest on this very topic, because he said he didnt think the government was committed to HS2 beyond Birmingham.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Pricing people off the railway when trains are crowded is a standard practice since BR days.

Peak trains out of London are not crowded. It's the first off-peak trains that are, because of rampant price gouging.

And as HS2 is now going to cost £110bn, you can expect more of that price-gouging to come. SouthEastern were allowed to put all their fares up by 3% above inflation to pay for HS1.

Probably leaked by the noble Lord himself. He does have form form doing that.

You mean released, right. This is exactly what he was saying back in October, before the election got in the way.

Therefore if you double the costs you don't need to double the number of extra passengers to still result in the same total benefits when related to the costs.

If the benefits are £60bn and the cost is £50bn then you have a worthwhile project. If you have £60bn benefits and the cost is £110bn you don't have a worthwhile project.

I have no idea what you're trying to argue? That the benefits miraculously increase just because the cost does?

 

[Tetchytyke]

Part of the reason the estimated costs have risen is through gaining a much better understanding of the actual scope needed to deliver the HS2 train service. Far better up front now

It's not "up front" though, is it? It's after an artificially low budget was used to push it through Parliament. Given the cost has already doubled before any major construction has taken place, and given that landowners have been royally shafted through the compulsory purchase proces, it's fair to say the Crossrail inflation is still to come.

As for a "better understanding", that should have been in place before they came to Parliament and promised the impossible.

 

[Class 170101]

There has been suggestions about having a HS2 link to the classic lines somewhere around Water Orton which would allow Cross Counry services to operate but unfortunately Curazon Street has been built as a terminus rather than as having a potential as a through station at a later date to allow expansion towards the west / southwest so access for these services will have to be via Birmingham Interchange and a branch from there.

 

[Facing Back]

Peak trains out of London are not crowded. It's the first off-peak trains that are, ...

Not always true. I've been on many Virgin trains out of Euston in the evening peak which have been crowded. Likewise FGW services from Paddington which have been so crowded that it wasn't possible to get to the buffet, let alone join the massive queue for it, until Swindon. Admittedly in the HST days, I haven't travelled peak on an IET.

 

[Camden]

Joe Anderson was on it, he quit a year ago ironically enough in protest on this very topic, because he said he didnt think the government was committed to HS2 beyond Birmingham.

Uh huh. I think it's more interesting to note that the legitimate representative for the region, Steve Rotheram, has never been interested in joining Osborne's little group of hangers on. Depending on the report's contents and where that leads, that may have been a very wise move. As well as one which is reflective and respectful of what the region has got out of any of this (ie nothing)

 

[Taunton]

How many 2 coach trains run into London and from where?

Go to Marylebone, you will see loads coming in at all hours.