In 2009 (when all the 390's were 9 coach trains) the average loadings would have been "X" we don't know "X" but that doesn't matter. What we do know was that "X" was enough to justify the running of the services.
Now if we apply a figure to "X", for arguments sake let's say it's 41.7%. Again it doesn't matter for this argument what the figure is but it's just too show something.
41.7% of 479 is 200 (& there you were wondering why I'd used such a random figure).
Now fast forward to 2018 and rail growth has seen this figure jump to 340, however given the mix of train lengths it's not as easy to apply the same percentage figure as was the case in 2009. However if we were to assume that HS2 were to be operational now then compared to the 1,100 seats per train we'd see a figure of 30.9%
This is still a bit behind the 459 to bring us to parity to the 2009 figure, however HS2 isn't set to open now, even on the original 2026 date is 8 years beyond the last data we have.
To reach the 459 figure would require growth of 35%. That's a lot of growth, but not insurmountable given that there's 8 years in which to achieve it.
It works out at 3.8% growth per year, which is fairly high. However even then that wouldn't be particularly comparable, as the class 390's had been operating for about 8 years by 2009 and so had seen growth due to their introduction.
A fairer comparison would be the opening of the full network in (originally) 2033, which is 15 years after the current data. To hit the 459 figure (so that the HS2 services were as well loaded as the 390's were in 2009) would still require 35% growth. However as it's over a longer timeframe it means annual growth of 2.03%.
However given the announcement about the potential delay to opening this could result in the HS2 services reaching those at the same points of opening (i.e. the opening of Phase 1 and full opening) but with lower growth rates as the dates for those openings are then later.
Assuming a 2031 date for phase 1 growth would need to be 2.35% whilst full opening in 2040 would be 1.38%. Either of which are fairly likely, even without any significant changes. However the opening of even a part of HS2 would be significant in terms of changes, as such it is very likely that by 2040 HS2 services will be as busy as the 390's were in 2009. I would also suggest that HS2 would also be fairly likely to see it's services as busy as the 390's were in 2009.
Now because the 390's stop at more stations than the HS2 services there's a need for the growth to be more to see the same loadings. However with such low growth figures required it's still very probable that by 2040, or very shortly (i.e. within a year or two) after that loadings would be reset to the same percentage as the 390's saw in 2009.
The reason for this post? To combat the argument that HS2 would be a White Elephant (i.e. something of little use), as if HS2 is a White Elephant then so was the purchase of the class 390's back in 2002, add they would have been expensive playthings of the rich. Who would need to get to Manchester quicker, as the internet and email is reducing the need for people to travel. No other train company is looking to run services at 140mph we should just stick to 125mph like everyone else.
Funny that few arguments like that were put forward in 2001, even though things didn't work out all the well (i.e. no 140mph running), yet I doubt that Virgin have been disappointed by the growth seen.
If people wish to see HS2 cancelled you need to show why HS2 will be a White Elephant, I've shown you why it won't be. Now it's your turn to rebuff what had been put here.